***Russian - Ukraine War Tactical and Strategic Updates*** [Warning on OP]

7,597,899 Views | 47843 Replies | Last: 28 min ago by AtticusMatlock
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FriscoKid said:



Kind of what I was expecting. The total number is going to be staggering.
the Ukrainian government let Mariupol become a Grozny.

they think (or thought) holding the city was the key to the entire war.

that was a terrible decision
Agsuffering@bulaw
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There is no talking to the guy just like there was no talking to Hitler. Putin is reportedly in some bunker in the Ural Mountains. Supposedly, he will not listen to his generals. He has turned on most of his oligarchic buddies.

The time to talk was before he invaded. Backing down is not in his nature. He does not care how the rest of the world remembers him. He believes Russians will remember him as strong, which is all he values.

1. Some brave Russian Valkyrie retires him, or he is somehow deposed
2. Unrest at home gets so bad and he decides to bring what is left of the army home to quell it*
3. He strokes out
4. Armageddon

*He's in so deep, he might not consider this
CondensedFogAggie
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Keegan99 said:

rgag12 said:

Burrus86 said:

BQ78 said:

She's not wrong, more effort is being put into making the war go on and on, versus working to end it. No one is taking a lead on peace but there are plenty of leaders for war. Maybe there is no peaceful solution but no one is trying, unless there is something going on behind the scenes. If only we had a strong US leader in charge.

Until Putin negotiates an ending in good faith, no peaceful resolution is in sight that doesn't ultimately screw Ukraine.


Yep there can't/won't be a peace until both sides want it. Russia isn't going to want peace until earliest the end of their upcoming offensive. A peace deal doesn't make sense right now, unless Ukraine decides to roll-over regarding the Donbas and Crimea.


In the 60 Minutes interview last night, Zelensky made a pretty unequivocal statement that Crimea belonged to Ukraine, and that was not open for negotiation.
Of course. This war will likely eventually end in a ceasefire, with no territorial concessions given.
AgLA06
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BQ78 said:

Yes, but the longer it drags on the more it becomes a fait acompli for what Putin desires to avoid-- looking weak. The fact he put himself in such a hard place is the biggest risk factor in all this mess. Someone should be trying to talk him into taking an off ramp, if it is even in the cards. If it is not, than the tragedy for both countries (and the world) just gets deeper.
There is no offramp until he decides he wants one.

Getting his ass handed to him in northern Ukraine eliminated the option of not looking weak. The Russian army today is demoralized and embarrassed and seen as weak around the world. Until they have some "victory" there is only perceived weakness.

People can talk all they want, but they're just in fantasy land just like the IRA chick. Talk means nothing to Putin and the Russians. They haven't told the truth yet in what little talk and negotiations they have done to date. Only a fool thinks they can negotiate with them.
Robk
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W said:

FriscoKid said:



Kind of what I was expecting. The total number is going to be staggering.
the Ukrainian government let Mariupol become a Grozny.

they think (or thought) holding the city was the key to the entire war.

that was a terrible decision
I remember Zelinsky saying that they were told they could retreat. From my understanding the Azrov is based in the area so it is literally their home.
wangus12
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W said:

FriscoKid said:



Kind of what I was expecting. The total number is going to be staggering.
the Ukrainian government let Mariupol become a Grozny.

they think (or thought) holding the city was the key to the entire war.

that was a terrible decision
Let it happen? Guess they should tell their citizens to stop letting the Russians kill them with artillery all day and night.

The key has always been holding Kiev, which they did and still do. Mariupol quickly got surrounded and the troops that were there decided to fight it out, tying up a lot of Russian troops in the process. Russia is the one killing civilians by aimlessly bombarding/shooting civilians.
ABATTBQ11
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BQ78 said:

So how do you see this ending? With the Russian military destroyed and/or Ukraine ground into a fine dust? I just find the whole thing tragic at this point.


There's no telling, but I think both. If some of the reports from eastern Ukraine are true, the Russians are hitting the bottom of the barrel and can't mount effective operations. However, the Ukrainians have likely experienced heavy losses as well. Still, they'll try to push the Russians out of the east and may be successful with Western standoff weapons.

The Russians are going to waste men and materials until they're all dead or they can take the entire country, so it comes down to who will hit a breaking point first. I would like to think it's the Russians and their forces on the east finally say, "**** it, this isn't worth dying for," and give up en masse or the Russian economy finally implodes and Russian civilians and military decide the whole thing is a ****show that isn't worth it, but who knows how long that could take.

On the other hand, the Ukrainians are almost at a point where they have nothing to lose. Russia will destroy Ukrainian culture and wipe them off the face of the earth if they can, and the Ukrainians know this, so they might as well go big and take as many Russians with them as they can.

It is tragic, but it is what it is at this point.
74OA
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BQ78 said:

She's not wrong, more effort is being put into making the war go on and on, versus working to end it. No one is taking a lead on peace but there are plenty of leaders for war. Maybe there is no peaceful solution but no one is trying, unless there is something going on behind the scenes. If only we had a strong US leader in charge.
People are trying. The entire program of sanctions on Russia and military aid for Ukraine is designed to create pressure on Moscow to end hostilities.

Ukraine has met with Russia for peace talks twice in Belorussia and since then almost continuously in Turkey.

All they hear from the Russian side is endless repetition of Putin's original unacceptable demands, rather than a good faith negotiation towards a peaceful resolution.

Kiev should not be pressured into peace just for peace's sake at the cost of de facto surrendering its sovereignty to Moscow.


RebelE Infantry
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The cynic in me says that Zelensky is happy to let Azov get annihilated in Mariupol. They tie up troops, he gets a humanitarian disaster to sell to the West for more weapons, and his ugly little Nazi optics problem gets taken care of.

And as to the claims of indiscriminate shelling of civilian areas- fortified urban areas are a, if not the, key component of the Ukrainian defense strategy. What does everyone think is going to happen when apartment buildings and whatnot are used to fire on advancing troops?
AgLA06
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RebelE Infantry said:

The cynic in me says that Zelensky is happy to let Azov get annihilated in Mariupol. They tie up troops, he gets a humanitarian disaster to sell to the West for more weapons, and his ugly little Nazi optics problem gets taken care of.

And as to the claims of indiscriminate shelling of civilian areas- fortified urban areas are a, if not the, key component of the Ukrainian defense strategy. What does everyone think is going to happen when apartment buildings and whatnot are used to fire on advancing troops?
I guess. Considering there wasn't an option to militarily pull them out anyway. It's quite moot at this point.

Them holding this long and ensuring the Russians are tied up, unable to use the airport or port is a huge bonus. It appears there is great effort to resupply them even while being cut off. I don't think that would be happening if Ukraine was content with your scenario.
74OA
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RebelE Infantry said:

The cynic in me says that Zelensky is happy to let Azov get annihilated in Mariupol. They tie up troops, he gets a humanitarian disaster to sell to the West for more weapons, and his ugly little Nazi optics problem gets taken care of.

And as to the claims of indiscriminate shelling of civilian areas- fortified urban areas are a, if not the, key component of the Ukrainian defense strategy. What does everyone think is going to happen when apartment buildings and whatnot are used to fire on advancing troops?
Your use of the word "indiscriminate" undermines your second point.
ABATTBQ11
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W said:

FriscoKid said:



Kind of what I was expecting. The total number is going to be staggering.
the Ukrainian government let Mariupol become a Grozny.

they think (or thought) holding the city was the key to the entire war.

that was a terrible decision


Yes, because the Russians have treated all of the other areas they've occupied so well...
AgLA06
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W said:

FriscoKid said:



Kind of what I was expecting. The total number is going to be staggering.
the Ukrainian government let Mariupol become a Grozny.

they think (or thought) holding the city was the key to the entire war.

that was a terrible decision
Other than Russia having unabated access to the airport and port for the last month to open another logistical front, what changes otherwise if Mariupol didn't hold out.

You're acting like Ukraine somehow loses by this. It's questionable if the Azos battalion would have followed commands anyway.
MeatDr
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aggiehawg
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That won't escalate anything, will it./sarc
P.U.T.U
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With those missile systems in Vyborg they can hit several major Finnish cities.
MeatDr
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Taken apart, the Orlan drone looks like something a smart high school kid could put together.
MouthBQ98
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W said:

FriscoKid said:



Kind of what I was expecting. The total number is going to be staggering.
the Ukrainian government let Mariupol become a Grozny.

they think (or thought) holding the city was the key to the entire war.

that was a terrible decision


It strategically prevented Russia from linking their Southern front with their eastern attack, and has tied up a large amount of combat power. It was strategically important. The terrible part is the Russians indiscriminately bombarding or attacking civilians and denying them any real opportunity to safely leave and go where they want to.

The Ukrainian government and military have an obligation to not lose the war to the nation already targeting and terrorizing their civilians. Unfortunately, that has meant a strategic battle for a city located in an important position that has proved surprising defensible.
Rossticus
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BQ78 said:

Yes, but the longer it drags on the more it becomes a fait acompli for what Putin desires to avoid-- looking weak. The fact he put himself in such a hard place is the biggest risk factor in all this mess. Someone should be trying to talk him into taking an off ramp, if it is even in the cards. If it is not, than the tragedy for both countries (and the world) just gets deeper.


Putin has blown by every off ramp he's been offered and doubled down on killing civilians. His citizens predominantly support this war and his self approved internal propaganda continues to push it as a righteous, holy war against a country that has no right to exist. The man doesn't want a damn off ramp. He wants to win.

Neither Ukraine nor Ukrainians have any future under which their country exists beneath Russia's boot. Ukraine's only hope for peace is via military action as Russia has no interest in willingly allowing the country to exist as a sovereign, self governing entity. You can't negotiate with someone whose goal is to end you.
MeatDr
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MeatDr said:

Taken apart, the Orlan drone looks like something a smart high school kid could put together.


From the comments I found a thread that explores some of the other components. Almost entirely based on tech from other countries.

Unroll: https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1408777423009861633.html
BQ_90
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MeatDr said:

Taken apart, the Orlan drone looks like something a smart high school kid could put together.

That's not really a good comparison to the Predator drone at all. That is more of squad level drone like the raven
aggiehawg
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These Russians are just insane.

JFABNRGR
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W said:

FriscoKid said:



Kind of what I was expecting. The total number is going to be staggering.
the Ukrainian government let Mariupol become a Grozny.

they think (or thought) holding the city was the key to the entire war.

that was a terrible decision


Let Mariupol become a Grozny? That's ridiculous, especially when multiple other urban areas have been heavily bombarded without any Ukrainian military targets in them.
Rossticus
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aggiehawg said:

That won't escalate anything, will it./sarc


He's going to stick with the usual playbook. Threaten attacks and see if that gives Finland and/or NATO cold feet.

If not then he may, if he's nuts, take out an unmanned target along the coast under the assumption that it'll be too little for Finland to respond and risk all out war yet detail NATO admission because it technically could be construed as an active conflict, resulting in NATO leaving Finland high and dry (based on strict charter interpretation of not accepting candidates engaged in active conflicts).
MeatDr
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MeatDr
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aggiehawg
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aezmvp
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RebelE Infantry said:

The cynic in me says that Zelensky is happy to let Azov get annihilated in Mariupol. They tie up troops, he gets a humanitarian disaster to sell to the West for more weapons, and his ugly little Nazi optics problem gets taken care of.

And as to the claims of indiscriminate shelling of civilian areas- fortified urban areas are a, if not the, key component of the Ukrainian defense strategy. What does everyone think is going to happen when apartment buildings and whatnot are used to fire on advancing troops?
I think a lot of people everywhere in the world think that war is something other than it is. Nasty, brutish and horrible. Mechanized warfare in industrialized countries one of the worst environments imaginable short of WMDs or being next to a volcano or tsunami. It's all of the horsemen.

I bet that Zelensky will not be sad to have Azov taken care of. The longer they hold out, kill Russians and tie up resources, the better for the Ukes. I would not be surprised for total casualties civilian and military in Mariupol to be north of 25,000. The reprisals in the city will be brutal almost beyond imagining.

I don't, however, think that having those forces stand at the city was a wrong or bad strategic decision. I'm absolutely certain the Russians have lost significantly more time, men and equipment taking that town than they can afford. They can't afford not to take it due to the strategic situation and they want that land bridge taken and secured. Every day that pulls away troops and supplies and armor and artillery and aircraft away from Kherson or going north along the river is a huge win for the Ukes strategically. Obviously the human toll will be horrendous, but if you are running the Uke war effort the human toll is not a consideration outside of how much that can get you from the West and having to supply the refugees. I'm cynical enough to know that in a fight for your existence, everything else falls to the way side and if you think most world leaders wouldn't make that choice I think you're terribly naive.
MeatDr
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MeatDr said:

Taking the start of this list from BattleGrackle, I'm starting a diplomat AND EMBASSY STAFF expulsion cumulative post. I welcome corrections.

Total diplomats expelled to date as of this post: 465

Belgium - 21 (Mar 29), 19 (Apr 5)
Bulgaria - 10 (Mar 18)
Croatia - 24 (Apr 11)
Czech Republic - 1 (Mar 29)
Denmark - 15 (Apr 5)
Estonia - 3 (Mar 18), 14 (Apr 5)
Finland - 2 (Apr 8)
France - 35 (Apr 4), 6 (Apr 11)
Germany - 40 (Apr 4)
Greece - 12 (Apr 6)
Italy - 30 (Apr 5)
Ireland - 4 (Mar 29)
Japan - 8 (Apr 8)
Latvia - 3* (Mar 18), 13 (Apr 5)
Lithuania - 4* (Mar 18), ambassador also expelled (Apr 4)
Montenegro - 1 (Apr 4)
Netherlands - 17 (Mar 29)
North Macedonia - 5 (Mar 28)
Norway - 3 (Apr 6)
Poland - 45 (Mar 23)
Portugal - 10 (Apr 5)
Romania - 10 (Apr 5)
Slovakia - 3 (Mar 14), 35 (Mar 31)
Slovenia - 33 (Apr 5)
Spain - 25 (Apr 5)
Sweden - 3 (Apr 5)
USA - 12 (Feb 28)

* In March a joint statement from Baltic states was released that 10 diplomats were being expelled, 7 between Lithuania and Latvia

Feel free to add/edit

An additional 6 diplomats are being expelled from France.
aggiehawg
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Russia is going The Final Solution on the Ukrainian population.
Robk
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aggiehawg said:


Those feet are not going to be good for much in a couple of days.
HTownAg98
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Robk said:

aggiehawg said:


Those feet are not going to be good for much in a couple of days.
That's their expected life, sadly.
74OA
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W said:

FriscoKid said:



Kind of what I was expecting. The total number is going to be staggering.
the Ukrainian government let Mariupol become a Grozny.

they think (or thought) holding the city was the key to the entire war.

that was a terrible decision
Mariupol is the only obstacle to Moscow owning the entire Ukrainian coast east of Odessa. That coast and its adjacent wheat-belt are essential to Ukraine's economy.

Moscow controlling that corridor blocks Ukraine from the Sea of Azov and creates a land bridge from Russia to Crimea--both of which are key Putin objectives.

Once Putin gets his hands on that coast the Ukrainians know they'll never get it back--just like they lost Crimea and now stand to lose the Donbas.

Holding Mariupol is essential.
aggiehawg
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Quote:

The Ukrainian Training Center at Yavoriv also saw massive changes starting in 2014, likely driven as much by the Russian invasion of Crimea and the Donbas as by Vorobyov's vision. In April 2015, elements of the U.S. 173rd Airborne Brigade stationed in Italy again deployed to Yavoriv and established an ongoing operational program called "Fearless Guardian." The program was progressive, training everything from individual soldier skills to battalion-level operations, all based on lessons learned from the eastern and southern Ukrainian combat zones. The increasing energy at Yavoriv showed the need for a permanent enhanced training center, modeled after the U.S. Army's training programs in the United States and Germany. In December 2015, U.S. Army Europe formally established Joint Multinational Training Group Ukraine (JMTG-U), where a multi-national team of Americans, Poles, Canadians, Lithuanians, and Brits began training Ukrainian battalions as combined arms teams. Command Sergeant Major Davenport sent me a note a few years ago saying Ukraine had formally established an NCO corps, with standardized training and leadership requirements. Henadii's vision had become a reality, accelerated by the urgencies of the Russian existential threat.
Quote:

As for the Russians, their recent battlefield failurestheir staged maneuvers, lack of leadership development, absence of a logistics plan to support operations, inability to coordinate and conduct air-ground-sea joint operations and continued use of conscript soldiers in critical missionsall indicate a larger failure to modernize their army. Just as Russia and Ukraine followed different political courses over the past 30 years, so did their armies, and it shows. While Ukraine's democracy is still addressing issues of government corruption, those violations pale in significance and scope to the embezzlement, graft, and corruption of Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu, his predecessor Anatoly Serdyukov, and Vladimir Putin himself. Colonel-General Chirkin had, if nothing else, proved that he was acting in line with the role models in his senior leadership.
Via Hot Air
PJYoung
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