***Russian - Ukraine War Tactical and Strategic Updates*** [Warning on OP]

7,598,193 Views | 47843 Replies | Last: 2 hrs ago by AtticusMatlock
Rossticus
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bonfarr
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txags92 said:

I am at the point where I am ready for us to start doing what the Israelis do to the Syrians. Just send in some stealth planes and let them wreck shop on everything Russian they can find. Then just deny we had any involvement whatsoever. Tell them it was Ukrainians flying choppers between the trees and firing Anti tank missiles.



If the Serbians can shoot down a stealth fighter the Russians can too. Once they open their bomb bay doors they can be seen on radar and are vulnerable. We can't risk having one shot down over Ukraine, it would be difficult explaining that.

China bought wreckage of the F-117 that was shot down and that was how they and the Russians jump started their stealth technology.
sharpdressedman
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Rossticus said:


Yep. Putin will bring the "shock and awe" with full knowledge that the weapons flowing into Ukraine are difference makers that can, and likely will, if utilized, force him into more desperate measures. He is "all in" with this war, and I doubt he will survive failure.
Rossticus
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Rossticus
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This is a good one.

Full thread:

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1513318597489217539.html

Rossticus
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Rossticus
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Rossticus
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What a clown show.

Eliminatus
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There is a new video out of a group of about 15 Ukrainians clustered around and talking. A tank rolls up on them and one of them greets it, nonchalantly. It then turns the turret and shoots the group with it's main cannon from a distance of probably about 10m. It's graphic as hell, so I won't link it but pretty sure it pink mists most of them. Absolutely wild.

Speculation is that neither group initially recognized each other as enemy and they got extremely close to each other before one side finally figured it out first. Russians won that race.

Wanted to mention because I have been thinking about so called blue on blue attacks and the event that happened here. You have two groups that are very close to each other in culture and language and then use literally the exact same equipment in an all out war of fluid front lines and miscommunication. I know we see the colored armbands but that is hard to see with embedded infantry in woodlines. War is hell and the vast majority of us hate it, but even within that sphere of misery, there are tiers of awfulness and dying from your own side or a mistaken "friendly" has got to be one of the worst ways to go.
MeatDr
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MeatDr
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A long thread on Russian tank losses. I'm not sure I totally understand their math and how they get to such a low number of the 10,000 tanks Russia has that are actually usable, but based on some of the things we are seeing with ancient tanks in play, it seems to make sense.


Unroll here: https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1513402516628996097.html
Waffledynamics
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Heavy, heavy shelling of Kharkiv lately if the LiveUaMap is of any indication. Also, DNR officials called for use of chemical weapons in Mariupol.
benchmark
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Quote:

EnclaveOfficer @OfficerEnclave .... German security authorities expect a "devastating #Easteroffensive" by Russia in eastern Ukraine. The aim is to "encircle up to 50,000 Ukrainian soldiers in the Donbas region" and to celebrate this as a great success at the parade in Moscow on May 9th.
Open ground topography and firmer ground favors a broad blitzkrieg-like Russian offensive. Armor will likely be dispersed across a wide front and more difficult to defend. Encirclement is a real possibility but so are long supply lines.
MeatDr
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MeatDr said:

Taking the start of this list from BattleGrackle, I'm starting a diplomat AND EMBASSY STAFF expulsion cumulative post. I welcome corrections.

Total diplomats expelled to date as of this post: 459

Belgium - 21 (Mar 29), 19 (Apr 5)
Bulgaria - 10 (Mar 18)
Croatia - 24 (Apr 11)
Czech Republic - 1 (Mar 29)
Denmark - 15 (Apr 5)
Estonia - 3 (Mar 18), 14 (Apr 5)
Finland - 2 (Apr 8)
France - 35 (Apr 4)
Germany - 40 (Apr 4)
Greece - 12 (Apr 6)
Italy - 30 (Apr 5)
Ireland - 4 (Mar 29)
Japan - 8 (Apr 8)
Latvia - 3* (Mar 18), 13 (Apr 5)
Lithuania - 4* (Mar 18), ambassador also expelled (Apr 4)
Montenegro - 1 (Apr 4)
Netherlands - 17 (Mar 29)
North Macedonia - 5 (Mar 28)
Norway - 3 (Apr 6)
Poland - 45 (Mar 23)
Portugal - 10 (Apr 5)
Romania - 10 (Apr 5)
Slovakia - 3 (Mar 14), 35 (Mar 31)
Slovenia - 33 (Apr 5)
Spain - 25 (Apr 5)
Sweden - 3 (Apr 5)
USA - 12 (Feb 28)

* In March a joint statement from Baltic states was released that 10 diplomats were being expelled, 7 between Lithuania and Latvia

Feel free to add/edit


18 diplomats and 6 staff expelled from Croatia.
PJYoung
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Eliminatus said:

There is a new video out of a group of about 15 Ukrainians clustered around and talking. A tank rolls up on them and one of them greets it, nonchalantly. It then turns the turret and shoots the group with it's main cannon from a distance of probably about 10m. It's graphic as hell, so I won't link it but pretty sure it pink mists most of them. Absolutely wild.

Speculation is that neither group initially recognized each other as enemy and they got extremely close to each other before one side finally figured it out first. Russians won that race.

Wanted to mention because I have been thinking about so called blue on blue attacks and the event that happened here. You have two groups that are very close to each other in culture and language and then use literally the exact same equipment in an all out war of fluid front lines and miscommunication. I know we see the colored armbands but that is hard to see with embedded infantry in woodlines. War is hell and the vast majority of us hate it, but even within that sphere of misery, there are tiers of awfulness and dying from your own side or a mistaken "friendly" has got to be one of the worst ways to go.

From the Reddit comments:

Quote:

One of my interpreters in Bosnia had a story like this. He and his patrol came out of the woods and found a deuce-and-a-half waiting to pick them up, right where they expected it to be. They rode along with a few other guys in the back for about 5 minutes before they got to talking, and realized from the accents that they had jumped into a Serbian truck. It was dark, all the uniforms were ex-yugoslav army, all the weapons were the same - there was just no way to tell before then. All their rifles were piled up in the middle on their rucksacks, so it got resolved with bayonets.
RebelE Infantry
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Eliminatus said:

There is a new video out of a group of about 15 Ukrainians clustered around and talking. A tank rolls up on them and one of them greets it, nonchalantly. It then turns the turret and shoots the group with it's main cannon from a distance of probably about 10m. It's graphic as hell, so I won't link it but pretty sure it pink mists most of them. Absolutely wild.

Speculation is that neither group initially recognized each other as enemy and they got extremely close to each other before one side finally figured it out first. Russians won that race.

Wanted to mention because I have been thinking about so called blue on blue attacks and the event that happened here. You have two groups that are very close to each other in culture and language and then use literally the exact same equipment in an all out war of fluid front lines and miscommunication. I know we see the colored armbands but that is hard to see with embedded infantry in woodlines. War is hell and the vast majority of us hate it, but even within that sphere of misery, there are tiers of awfulness and dying from your own side or a mistaken "friendly" has got to be one of the worst ways to go.


There's a video of the aftermath showing that they were grouped around a knocked out Russian BMP. Very strongly recommend against watching it, wish I hadn't.
Waffledynamics
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Those Uke tank, aircraft, and ADS losses are staggering and catastrophic.
3rd and 2
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Waffledynamics said:

Those Uke tank, aircraft, and ADS losses are staggering and catastrophic.


Are they real?
.
aezmvp
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RebelE Infantry said:

Eliminatus said:

There is a new video out of a group of about 15 Ukrainians clustered around and talking. A tank rolls up on them and one of them greets it, nonchalantly. It then turns the turret and shoots the group with it's main cannon from a distance of probably about 10m. It's graphic as hell, so I won't link it but pretty sure it pink mists most of them. Absolutely wild.

Speculation is that neither group initially recognized each other as enemy and they got extremely close to each other before one side finally figured it out first. Russians won that race.

Wanted to mention because I have been thinking about so called blue on blue attacks and the event that happened here. You have two groups that are very close to each other in culture and language and then use literally the exact same equipment in an all out war of fluid front lines and miscommunication. I know we see the colored armbands but that is hard to see with embedded infantry in woodlines. War is hell and the vast majority of us hate it, but even within that sphere of misery, there are tiers of awfulness and dying from your own side or a mistaken "friendly" has got to be one of the worst ways to go.


There's a video of the aftermath showing that they were grouped around a knocked out Russian BMP. Very strongly recommend against watching it, wish I hadn't.
Yeah BMP will redistribute infantry fairly effectively. Not pretty.
aezmvp
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3rd and 2 said:

Waffledynamics said:

Those Uke tank, aircraft, and ADS losses are staggering and catastrophic.


Are they real?
Probably not. For your purposes of armchair QBing the conflict use Oryx on Twitter and figure an extra 10% on the Russian side and 20-25% on the Ukes side. He is pretty plugged in on telegram for Ukrainian losses being reported by Russia but that's probably not as close a representation as what's coming from the Uke side. Aircraft losses will be in between observed and reported numbers. Aircraft kills are ALWAYS way off. Have been for 100+ years.
Spaceship
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As I've shared on this thread in the past, I've had family in Melitopol for the past 20 years. There are seven of them and they were living as Christian missionaries there in the city. Recently, the head of the household (my brother-in-law) was kidnapped/arrested/detained for nine days by Russian soldiers and finally released. He isn't political and was not engaged in fighting. However, they are US citizens and it became untenable to stay any longer - even though they were housing and feeding displaced people in the city.

To make a long story short, crossing Ukraine to the west to Poland was far too dangerous, so they recently departed the country through Crimea, across Russia and thankfully just arrived safely in Latvia. From there, they go to Lithuania, to Poland and then eventually back to the US.

The unfortunate reality is that they'll never return to their established life in Melitopol and literally left everything behind except their car and the clothes they could pack in the trunk. Left behind is their home, their businesses, all their possessions and their friends.

To help the seven of them get re-established, we've set up a GoFundMe. If you so feel inclined, I'm sharing the link below. They range from age 3 to 50 and have given their lives over in service to Christ. Now that they are safe in Latvia, I can share this. Thanks!

https://www.gofundme.com/f/dmitry-bodyu-and-family?utm_campaign=p_cp+share-sheet&utm_medium=copy_link_all&utm_source=customer
MeatDr
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MouthBQ98
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Waffledynamics said:

Those Uke tank, aircraft, and ADS losses are staggering and catastrophic.


Much of it was probably obsolescent reserve inventory that wasn't mobilized before it was put out of action or the facilities with means to do so were destroyed or occupied.
PJYoung
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MeatDr said:


Quote:

A full foreign currency default would be Russia's first in more than a century, when Bolshevik leader Vladimir Lenin repudiated bonds issued by the Tsarist government.
MeatDr
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MeatDr
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evan_aggie
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Says the lady representing the EU country furthest from Russia and separated but a body of water.

Bulgary should invade Ireland, take what they claim is theirs, talk about removing nazis, and keep at it until they ask for a diplomatic resolution that gives half the country away.
evan_aggie
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evan_aggie said:

Says the lady representing the EU country furthest from Russia and separated by a body of water.

Bulgary should invade Ireland, take what they claim is theirs, talk about removing nazis, and keep at it until they ask for a diplomatic resolution that gives half the country away.
Proc92
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MeatDr said:


What is that sitting next to that hag? Those are Irish reps to the eu?
3rd and 2
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Proc92 said:

MeatDr said:


What is that sitting next to that hag? Those are Irish reps to the eu?
That lady's husband must be ****ing whipped.
.
Robk
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MeatDr said:


From what I can gather of that lady. She is an ultra-left and actually was kicked out of her party for being too radical. Not sure how the EU gets reps, but she seems to be an outlier. An idiot but an outlier. As Rossicus said, I believe in the other post, russian sympathizers tend to come from the far ends of either political spectrrum.
RebelE Infantry
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aezmvp said:

RebelE Infantry said:

Eliminatus said:

There is a new video out of a group of about 15 Ukrainians clustered around and talking. A tank rolls up on them and one of them greets it, nonchalantly. It then turns the turret and shoots the group with it's main cannon from a distance of probably about 10m. It's graphic as hell, so I won't link it but pretty sure it pink mists most of them. Absolutely wild.

Speculation is that neither group initially recognized each other as enemy and they got extremely close to each other before one side finally figured it out first. Russians won that race.

Wanted to mention because I have been thinking about so called blue on blue attacks and the event that happened here. You have two groups that are very close to each other in culture and language and then use literally the exact same equipment in an all out war of fluid front lines and miscommunication. I know we see the colored armbands but that is hard to see with embedded infantry in woodlines. War is hell and the vast majority of us hate it, but even within that sphere of misery, there are tiers of awfulness and dying from your own side or a mistaken "friendly" has got to be one of the worst ways to go.


There's a video of the aftermath showing that they were grouped around a knocked out Russian BMP. Very strongly recommend against watching it, wish I hadn't.
Yeah BMP will redistribute infantry fairly effectively. Not pretty.


Actually I'm pretty sure they got hit with a tank main gun at point blank range.

The only explanation I can come up with is they were unfathomably careless or were under the impression that the Russian tank was a capture.
MouthBQ98
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So, the Irish strategy would be to submit, in a circumstance where the attacking power currently says there are no real negotiations, only terms that must be met? The Russians don't stop until they realize the prize isn't worth the cost. Negotiations wouldn't change that.

Some lives might be saved, in the short run, at the cost of long term subjugation in the long run. Let the Ukrainians decide what they value.
MeatDr
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mickeyrig06sq3
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MeatDr said:


Man, she's having a major adverse reaction to the large dose of reality this conflict has injected.
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