Would be nice if the Ukes had a couple A-10s in their inventory.MeatDr said:🧵Looking at the images released by @Maxar of the convoy and it being 13km long, I estimate it to consist of ≈ 400 Russian vehicles.
— Oliver Alexander (@OAlexanderDK) April 10, 2022
This image is 49.997077, 37.397610 and length photographed is ≈500m. There are 16 vehicles total (10 trucks, 6 armored vehicles). 1/ https://t.co/SuEVok8NhQ pic.twitter.com/ri7bd1S6mN
***Russian - Ukraine War Tactical and Strategic Updates*** [Warning on OP]
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Last: 1 hr ago by Waffledynamics
Belton Ag said:
Would be nice if the Ukes had a couple A-10s in their inventory.
Not this again.
Could it be the rocket body released the munitions, then continued in its original flight path? That would put the launch path coming from theUlysses90 said:aggiehawg said:How about the part of being able to determine origin of the missile just from the positioning on the ground of the rocket body? That seems kind of random to me.Ulysses90 said:aggiehawg said:
Also, could you review this and let me know if it is accurate? This guy is cited by mostly pro-Putin sources but it sounds plausible.
That explanation makes a lot of sense to me. Cluster munitions, whether from an artillery shell or a rocket, are designed with what is referred to as an "expelling charge" rather than a "bursting sharge". The idea is that the submunitions are expelled at ~20m above the ground to scatter the submunitions to cover a large area with fragmentation. The rocket body is mostly undamaged from the detaonation of the expelling charge but will be damaged, but still in one piece, from hitting the ground.
I didn't read that far initially but after looking at the photos on that page and verifying that the orientation of the photo with respect to grid north was correct (based on a comparison using Google Earth, it does appear that the rocket body came from an azimuth of ~255 degrees (i,e, azimuth of fire ~75 degrees). That does raise a serious question about the point of origin and who fired the rocket.
I am guessing from appearances in the photos linked above that the rocket body landed ~60 meters short of where the submunitions seem to have impacted in front of the train station. That would indicate a low bursting height about ~10m above ground and the submunitions went farther than the rocket body and impacted at the train station. That scenario seems to make sense from a rough estimate of where you would expect the submunitions to land from a 10m height of burst.
The Tochka-U has a max range of 120km but, a long range shot would suggest a steeper angle of fall and the rocket body would be sticking fins-up out of the ground. It seems to have impacted at a low angle of incidence which suggests that it was fired at a low angle from a point much less distant than the max 120km range.
Unless the orientation of the rocket body was significantly different from the azimuth of fire then is does appear to have been fired from a point of origin in territory to the west-southwest controlled by the Ukrainian forces. Based on the publicly available information, I can't make a rebuttal to the assertion that the Tochka-U seems to have been fired from Ukrainian held territory.
Someone who has experience with US Army or Marine Corps MLRS or ATACM missiles could offer a better interpretation than I can because my only experience is with howitzer shells. Is ~10m HoB correct? could the submunitions have been expelled at a greater height and fallen short of where the rocket body landed (implying that it came from the opposite direction and the rocket body was inverted? I don't know.
edit. I had a brain fart, meant North East. Thanks for the correction by JFABNRGR
Among the latter, under pretence of governing they have divided their nations into two classes, wolves and sheep.”
Thomas Jefferson, Letter to Edward Carrington, January 16, 1787
Thomas Jefferson, Letter to Edward Carrington, January 16, 1787
richardag said:Could it be the rocket body released the munitions, then continued in its original flight path? That would put the launch path coming from the NW?Ulysses90 said:aggiehawg said:How about the part of being able to determine origin of the missile just from the positioning on the ground of the rocket body? That seems kind of random to me.Ulysses90 said:aggiehawg said:
Also, could you review this and let me know if it is accurate? This guy is cited by mostly pro-Putin sources but it sounds plausible.
That explanation makes a lot of sense to me. Cluster munitions, whether from an artillery shell or a rocket, are designed with what is referred to as an "expelling charge" rather than a "bursting sharge". The idea is that the submunitions are expelled at ~20m above the ground to scatter the submunitions to cover a large area with fragmentation. The rocket body is mostly undamaged from the detaonation of the expelling charge but will be damaged, but still in one piece, from hitting the ground.
I didn't read that far initially but after looking at the photos on that page and verifying that the orientation of the photo with respect to grid north was correct (based on a comparison using Google Earth, it does appear that the rocket body came from an azimuth of ~255 degrees (i,e, azimuth of fire ~75 degrees). That does raise a serious question about the point of origin and who fired the rocket.
I am guessing from appearances in the photos linked above that the rocket body landed ~60 meters short of where the submunitions seem to have impacted in front of the train station. That would indicate a low bursting height about ~10m above ground and the submunitions went farther than the rocket body and impacted at the train station. That scenario seems to make sense from a rough estimate of where you would expect the submunitions to land from a 10m height of burst.
The Tochka-U has a max range of 120km but, a long range shot would suggest a steeper angle of fall and the rocket body would be sticking fins-up out of the ground. It seems to have impacted at a low angle of incidence which suggests that it was fired at a low angle from a point much less distant than the max 120km range.
Unless the orientation of the rocket body was significantly different from the azimuth of fire then is does appear to have been fired from a point of origin in territory to the west-southwest controlled by the Ukrainian forces. Based on the publicly available information, I can't make a rebuttal to the assertion that the Tochka-U seems to have been fired from Ukrainian held territory.
Someone who has experience with US Army or Marine Corps MLRS or ATACM missiles could offer a better interpretation than I can because my only experience is with howitzer shells. Is ~10m HoB correct? could the submunitions have been expelled at a greater height and fallen short of where the rocket body landed (implying that it came from the opposite direction and the rocket body was inverted? I don't know.
I think you mean NE. Yes at max speed of mach 5.3 it's doubtful that separation or explosion would have booster fall short. KE energy so high it would take an awful lot of counter forces to do that unless the weapon decelerated to a significantly lower speed. I centered the cluster release blast north side of the depot building as well so this line is slightly off. Most killed were behind red building north of depot building. Destroyed cars in front of building north part and one killed behind depot building at SE corner.
Thanks for the reply and correction, yes I should have said North East.JFABNRGR said:richardag said:Could it be the rocket body released the munitions, then continued in its original flight path? That would put the launch path coming from the NW?Ulysses90 said:aggiehawg said:How about the part of being able to determine origin of the missile just from the positioning on the ground of the rocket body? That seems kind of random to me.Ulysses90 said:aggiehawg said:
Also, could you review this and let me know if it is accurate? This guy is cited by mostly pro-Putin sources but it sounds plausible.
That explanation makes a lot of sense to me. Cluster munitions, whether from an artillery shell or a rocket, are designed with what is referred to as an "expelling charge" rather than a "bursting sharge". The idea is that the submunitions are expelled at ~20m above the ground to scatter the submunitions to cover a large area with fragmentation. The rocket body is mostly undamaged from the detaonation of the expelling charge but will be damaged, but still in one piece, from hitting the ground.
I didn't read that far initially but after looking at the photos on that page and verifying that the orientation of the photo with respect to grid north was correct (based on a comparison using Google Earth, it does appear that the rocket body came from an azimuth of ~255 degrees (i,e, azimuth of fire ~75 degrees). That does raise a serious question about the point of origin and who fired the rocket.
I am guessing from appearances in the photos linked above that the rocket body landed ~60 meters short of where the submunitions seem to have impacted in front of the train station. That would indicate a low bursting height about ~10m above ground and the submunitions went farther than the rocket body and impacted at the train station. That scenario seems to make sense from a rough estimate of where you would expect the submunitions to land from a 10m height of burst.
The Tochka-U has a max range of 120km but, a long range shot would suggest a steeper angle of fall and the rocket body would be sticking fins-up out of the ground. It seems to have impacted at a low angle of incidence which suggests that it was fired at a low angle from a point much less distant than the max 120km range.
Unless the orientation of the rocket body was significantly different from the azimuth of fire then is does appear to have been fired from a point of origin in territory to the west-southwest controlled by the Ukrainian forces. Based on the publicly available information, I can't make a rebuttal to the assertion that the Tochka-U seems to have been fired from Ukrainian held territory.
Someone who has experience with US Army or Marine Corps MLRS or ATACM missiles could offer a better interpretation than I can because my only experience is with howitzer shells. Is ~10m HoB correct? could the submunitions have been expelled at a greater height and fallen short of where the rocket body landed (implying that it came from the opposite direction and the rocket body was inverted? I don't know.
I think you mean NE. Yes at max speed of mach 5.3 it's doubtful that separation or explosion would have booster fall short. KE energy so high it would take an awful lot of counter forces to do that unless the weapon decelerated to a significantly lower speed. I centered the cluster release blast north side of the depot building as well so this line is slightly off. Most killed were behind red building north of depot building. Destroyed cars in front of building north part and one killed behind depot building at SE corner.
Among the latter, under pretence of governing they have divided their nations into two classes, wolves and sheep.”
Thomas Jefferson, Letter to Edward Carrington, January 16, 1787
Thomas Jefferson, Letter to Edward Carrington, January 16, 1787
Destroyed BMP had three lieutenants operating it- sign of depleted manpower. Russia stalling until June reconstitution
https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1512976260665909260.html
https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1512976260665909260.html
Can we please stop the wild ass guessing about the flight path of a missile we know very little about based on a picture of a piece of booster?
BREAKING: Lithuania announces plans to train Ukraine to use Western weapons
— Samuel Ramani (@SamRamani2) April 10, 2022
There was 1 checkpoint captured by the DNR near Horkliva earlier in the weekend. My map already erroneously showed that checkpoint as under Russian control since earlier in the week (overstated gains). but VERY minor gains. Hardly a pixel or two on my map, so, nothing to update.
— Nathan Ruser (@Nrg8000) April 10, 2022
Broadcasting on radiofrequency, Ukrainian Border guard's last words were "Slava Ukraini!" ("Glory to Ukraine!")
— UkraineWorld (@ukraine_world) April 10, 2022
Makes a great story, but a lot of those have ended up false
April 9 Assessment Highlight:
— ISW (@TheStudyofWar) April 10, 2022
There are likely few or no intact regiments or brigades remaining in the #Russian Army, Airborne Forces, or Naval Infantry. The Russians have no choice but to continue throwing battalions together into ad hoc formations.https://t.co/ckqLPzNZYQ
https://t.me/conflictzone/22750
Starstreak Martlett knocks out Orlan drone. There have been several confirmed russian drones brought down this week. The drone war is likely to be one of the key factors to success or failure for UKR, especially in the east. If they can keep russian eyes out of the sky than they can maneuver assets while also not losing them. At the same time if UKR can keep theirs flying the russians will continue to lose assets.
Sorry somehow missed earlier post
Sorry somehow missed earlier post
Posted earlier and was said to be a Martlet not Starstreak. Either way lots of new stuff getting used in Ukraine and knocking down drones is good news
Quote:
Moscow's forces were thwarted, too, by pieces of foam mat the Ukrainians call them karemats costing as little as 1.50. The mats prevent Russian thermal imaging drones from detecting human heat. "We held the karemats over our head", said Konoko, explaining how his men moved stealthily in tiny groups at night.
LinkQuote:
In that way soldiers armed with anti-tank weapons supplied by the US, Britain and others could sneak up on the Russians, fire their deadly and accurate missiles and then slip away…
On the second day of the invasion elderly friends of his parents, who did not have a smartphone, called to tell them where they had seen a Russian convoy close to the airport.
Lysovyy immediately opened "STOP Russian War", a Telegram chatbot created by the security services, and input the location. He also put a pin in the Google Maps location, screenshotted it and sent that, plus everything else he knew.
"I think many others made the same report," he said.
About 30 minutes later the convoy was attacked by the Ukrainian military. In the distance the sky glowed orange from the flames, Lysovyy recalled.
Innovative folks, those Ukes.
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Old Polish T-72s are reportedly being delivered to Ukraine now. These tanks are being replaced for Abrams. pic.twitter.com/ADeVaehRxx
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sclaff said:
Destroyed BMP had three lieutenants operating it- sign of depleted manpower. Russia stalling until June reconstitution
https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1512976260665909260.html
Seems like Russia could be forced out if a bunch of little green men on vacation showed up and started engaging them with Western weaponry gifted to Ukraine
Look like something the old
SADF built
SADF built
Ukraine already has 10s of thousands of western trained soldiers volunteering for them but as nice as that is, they need matching armor, artillery, anti-aircraft, and air support. Bringing that in covertly is not possible like it is with light infantry which Ukraine has plenty of at the moment.ABATTBQ11 said:sclaff said:
Destroyed BMP had three lieutenants operating it- sign of depleted manpower. Russia stalling until June reconstitution
https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1512976260665909260.html
Seems like Russia could be forced out if a bunch of little green men on vacation showed up and started engaging them with Western weaponry gifted to Ukraine
ETA, Mogadishu might be an example of the limits of light infantry with inadequate armor and air support. The rangers there did a masterful job against overwhelming numbers but without combined arms their superior skill was matched by the shear number of Somali attackers.
Video: Ukraine’s 53rd Mechanized Brigade artillery pounding Russian equipment presumably in Donbas/southeastern Ukraine.#Russia #Ukraine pic.twitter.com/l1rt9HSZhF
— BlueSauron👁️ (@Blue_Sauron) April 10, 2022
Crew with no legs bailing out- ouch
Quote:
Retired Gen. David Petraeus said on Sunday that he fears more violence against Ukrainian civilians in the future as Aleksandr Dvornikov takes over as the general in charge of Russia's military invasion.
When asked by CNN's Jake Tapper if Dvornikov's leadership lead to more brutal violence targeting Ukrainian civilians, the former CIA director responded, "I fear that it may."
"Again, the Russians were known in Syria basically for quote 'depopulating' areas," Petraeus said on CNN's "State of the Union," noting that the general was "known as the Butcher of Syria."
LinkQuote:
On Saturday, reports circulated that Dvornikov took over the military operation after Russian forces had failed to capture the Ukrainian capital of Kyiv over a month into Moscow's unprovoked invasion.
"You have this one general that will be in charge of all of this, so the first time you actually have one figure who is the overall commander," Petraeus also told Tapper, noting that he believes "you can expect more of what we have seen."
Hope he goes to the front and gets sniped pretty quickly.
After seeing all the footage, I have no idea how anyone would get into a Russian tank and not be terrified. Those things get hit and the turrets simply explode off.
How the hell is this design still being used. They simply do not survive.
How the hell is this design still being used. They simply do not survive.
The Russian design philosophy for their tanks and fighting vehicles has always been firepower, mobility, and cheap at the expense of protection and survivability. All their tanks and other armored vehicles are much lighter than western equivalents, with a big emphasis on being amphibious. With the right tactics it could be a winning combination. Driving down roads getting picked off isn't the right tactic.
It also originally relied on massive numbers. Losing 500+ tanks while only accomplishing 20% of your objectives is a bad sign. That's almost half of their initial deployment.GAC06 said:
The Russian design philosophy for their tanks and fighting vehicles has always been firepower, mobility, and cheap at the expense of protection and survivability. All their tanks and other armored vehicles are much lighter than western equivalents, with a big emphasis on being amphibious. With the right tactics it could be a winning combination. Driving down roads getting picked off isn't the right tactic.
The Russians also use a 3 man crew in their tanks, with an auto loader feeding the main gun. The propellant charges for the gun are stored under the turret, and are not blast separated from the crew compartment. So if you can cause a hit that ignites those charges, you blow the turret off the top of the tank. Our tanks use a 4 person crew, with a human loader, and the propellant charges are secured from the crew compartment by blast doors.GAC06 said:
The Russian design philosophy for their tanks and fighting vehicles has always been firepower, mobility, and cheap at the expense of protection and survivability. All their tanks and other armored vehicles are much lighter than western equivalents, with a big emphasis on being amphibious. With the right tactics it could be a winning combination. Driving down roads getting picked off isn't the right tactic.
The famous line "Quantity has a quality all its own" describes the Russian philosophy. They can crew 25% more tanks with the same number of men by eliminating the human gunner.
Massive Explosions can be seen from the Southern Ukrainian city of Mykolaiv tonight from Russian Artillery Strikes. pic.twitter.com/XCKbDq94E9
— OSINTdefender (@sentdefender) April 10, 2022
The Russian soldier Yevgeny Kovalenko sent home 17 packages from Belarus to Russia, weighing a total of 440 kg.
— Visegrád 24 (@visegrad24) April 9, 2022
How does it feel to be known for your looting for the rest of your life Yevgeny? pic.twitter.com/LOXXMhkqj1
The correct response would be to have major US/NATO assets already in position in E. Europe (we don't), and a heightened nuclear alert posture (unclear), then tell the Russians to do something about it. Unfortunately both NATO & US leadership continue to act w/weakness instead. https://t.co/NbmIhtYO9r
— Patrick Fox (@RealCynicalFox) April 10, 2022
One of Kadyrov’s Chechen extremists talks about how they are clearing houses.
— Visegrád 24 (@visegrad24) April 9, 2022
In the background, a woman can suddenly be heard screaming “Natasha” twice, before a gunshot is heard at 0:12 and the woman falls silent.
Kadyrov’s Chechens must leave Europe. pic.twitter.com/WNlTnvImie
Full thread:
https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1513085415716233220.html
https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1513085415716233220.html
Many accounts have posted these claims that Maxar didn't have satellites running over Bucha on March 19. pic.twitter.com/XCic0FhGsa
— Benjamin Strick (@BenDoBrown) April 10, 2022
The most humiliating minute of Peskov’s career: pic.twitter.com/oKakPeWUon
— Michael Moroz 🇺🇦 (@MorozMichael) April 9, 2022
Peskov proven to be a heartless monster as is his boss Putin.Rossticus said:The most humiliating minute of Peskov’s career: pic.twitter.com/oKakPeWUon
— Michael Moroz 🇺🇦 (@MorozMichael) April 9, 2022
Among the latter, under pretence of governing they have divided their nations into two classes, wolves and sheep.”
Thomas Jefferson, Letter to Edward Carrington, January 16, 1787
Thomas Jefferson, Letter to Edward Carrington, January 16, 1787
🇵🇱🇺🇦 Poland will send 100 T-72 tanks to Ukraine. pic.twitter.com/UFgr13akr3
— Expat in Poland 🇵🇱 (@BasedPoland2) April 9, 2022
Let the river of heavy armor into Ukraine start flowing
Looks promising. Any thoughts on what weapon systems this may refer to?MeatDr said:BREAKING: Lithuania announces plans to train Ukraine to use Western weapons
— Samuel Ramani (@SamRamani2) April 10, 2022
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