aggiehawg said:

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This seems badass.

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Wow, this thing has incredible off road capability. It could be a very formidable addition to the Uke arsenal, navigating thru muddy terrain to light up Russian armor.

The armoured vehicles the UK will be gifting Ukraine are understood to be Mastiff & Wolfhound (heavily armoured patrol vehicles), Husky (support vehicle) and Spartan (tracked armoured personnel carrier)

— Deborah Haynes (@haynesdeborah) April 9, 2022

MeatDr said:

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Source: Suspilne Kharkiv + Kharkiv’s mayor.

— Anastasiia Lapatina (@lapatina_) April 9, 2022

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They use parachute re tarded (have to avoid the filter to use that word) rockets from their multiple launch rocket systems. Perhaps this one.

https://en.missilery.info/missile/smerch/9m528

MeatDr said:

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That's a little disappointing. If they can fire it from a drone I guess that's something but a helicopter is likely to get smoked trying to shoot one at a frigate. Plus it's for sinking small craft. It has a 30kg warhead as compared to 220kg on a harpoon

GAC06 said:

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MeatDr said:

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That's a little disappointing. If they can fire it from a drone I guess that's something but a helicopter is likely to get smoked trying to shoot one at a frigate. Plus it's for sinking small craft. It has a 30kg warhead as compared to 220kg on a harpoon

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At this point I imagine they might even find a way to blow some **** up on land with it.

... There are good reasons to question the Russian armed forces’ ability to do so and their ability to use regenerated combat power effectively"

— OSINTtechnical (@Osinttechnical) April 10, 2022

If they can fire it from a drone there is a good chance they can sink or damage a ship. Even damaging a ship forces the Ru Navy to basically hover around port.

And the Brits only use air and sea harpoons. I dont think they have an airframe that can carry it. Its not like NATO missiles can work right on Ru airframes and computers

So let's say Kyiv is saved and Russia effectively gives up on the northern front as long as you maintain a reasonable defense.

If you're Ukraine, what do you do? Kharkiv in the north, Donetsk/Luhansk and Mariupol in the East, and Kherson in the South look like the main fronts now. Where do you focus your efforts, what are your priorities, what is your end goal, what does success look like.

If Russian forces collapse, do the Ukrainians stop at the 2021 borders and sue for peace or try to take back some territory?

I don't know enough about Ukrainian geography to comment very well. Not sure what the invasion routes, natural resources, etc are in the area. It seems to make the most sense to me to try to take Kharkiv (the largest city) back, bleed the Russians in the south, and try to negotiate for antebellum status with referendums in Donetsk, Luhansk, and Crimea to be held within two years and overseen by the UN. No idea how to judge the probabilities of these things happening.

They're making progress near Kherson. Things look good there. Reports seem to indicate positive results near Kharkiv as well. Russia has their sights set on Kramatorsk. They have to take it as the logical jumping off point for continued efforts toward security the east. Ukraine must do everything they can to deny them that victory so I'd expect to see a lot of focus in that area.

There's a reason Russia attacked Ukraine's ability yo evacuate civilians. Ukrainian troops are at a significant disadvantage when tasked with considering protecting the civilian population while conducting operations as Russia tries to advance on the city.

Are the Ukes even set up for a conventional "invasion" to get back contested territories like Donbas? i don't think they have the manpower, though they've clearly shown the ability to seriously wear down the Russians.

I think it'll depend on what the inherent quality of Russia's remaining manpower looks like. How much of it is comprised of reservists, conscripts, patchwork units redeployed directly from the Kyiv offensive? Is the west providing Ukraine enough force multiplication to outlast Russia's hordes of half assed troops?

Rossticus said:

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They're making progress near Kherson. Things look good there.

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Please explain. It seems like they're hampered by the rigged bridge to me.

Also, I've asked about strategic questions a few times. Nobody really answers because I'm sure nobody really knows. It's an interesting topic, though. We shall see how this plays out.

Waffledynamics said:

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Rossticus said:

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They're making progress near Kherson. Things look good there.

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Please explain. It seems like they're hampered by the rigged bridge to me.

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They've still seen progress in their offensive from Mykolaiv as well as moving from the northeast. They cleared some town to the NE of Kherson a couple of days ago. Due to opsec everything we get on Ukrainian movements is delayed but they have made gains from those two directions based on today's updates. Still trying to find the name of the town mentioned earlier today.

Full thread:

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1512913381648334849.html

We discuss below some instances in which #American and other officials have presented information in ways that may inadvertently exaggerate #Russian combat capability. We do not in any way mean to suggest that such exaggeration is intentional.https://t.co/ckqLPA5AQo

— ISW (@TheStudyofWar) April 9, 2022

Waffledynamics said:

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Rossticus said:

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They're making progress near Kherson. Things look good there.

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Please explain. It seems like they're hampered by the rigged bridge to me.

Also, I've asked about strategic questions a few times. Nobody really answers because I'm sure nobody really knows. It's an interesting topic, though. We shall see how this plays out.

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Bridging the Dnieper is an issue. If the Russians blow all the bridges supplies will be difficult. But the Ukes aren't running a traditional armored counter attack. Its mostly leg infantry. So some of that is easier than supporting lots of tanks and IFV in the area. Bridges can be repaired and pontoon bridges can be created. That is why losing Kherson w as s a big blow, natural chokepoint. But it isn't the only spot to cross.

I don't think Ukrainian tanks rolling over defensive positions in Donbass and Sevastopol is an option. But if the Russian military suffers a complete collapse of morale, infantry plus air support plus uprisings could lead to some sort of general retreat. I think this ends in negotiations for Ukrainian territory, just trying to figure out what are realistic options and tactical/strategic goals for Ukraine in the next couple weeks.

Waffledynamics said:

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Rossticus said:

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They're making progress near Kherson. Things look good there.

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Please explain. It seems like they're hampered by the rigged bridge to me.

Also, I've asked about strategic questions a few times. Nobody really answers because I'm sure nobody really knows. It's an interesting topic, though. We shall see how this plays out.

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RE: Kherson

On April 7th the Armed Forces of Ukraine liberated the settlement of Trudoliubivka in Kherson region from the Russian fascist invaders. This was announced by Угруповання військ "Південь" / Army Group "South" with a two day delay for operational reasons. pic.twitter.com/oNBzVWTyUH

— Michael MacKay (@mhmck) April 10, 2022

I'm thinking secure Kherson and Kharkiv while denying Russia's western push towards Kramatorsk. Stalemate them in the east and see what Putin does on May 9th since Intel has been adamant that that's been his mandatory "win by" date.

You see if Putin caves and is willing to negotiate peace while accepting a tiny sliver and declaring victory at home. If so then with appropriate iron clad direct defense guarantees from other nations MAYBE Ukraine agrees to call it a day. Tough ask for Ukraine to give away access to the Azov sea, though. Huge strategic win for Russia.

If Putin's ego is too big and he demands far more land than he's even near to controlling then I think Ukraine tells him to "come and take it" and this thing goes for the long haul.

Russian appt Top General to Ukraine...

https://www.upi.com/Top_News/World-News/2022/04/09/moscow-taps-alexander-dvornikov-command-forces-ukraine/9081649539344/

Yep. The orchestrator of some of the worst civilian atrocities in Syria. I imagine terrorizing, abusing, brutalizing, and killing innocents will receive even greater emphasis moving forward. Despite the torturing, bombing, burning, killing, and rape of everyone down to the youngest children thus far I'm afraid you ain't seen nothing yet. Prepared to be sufficiently horrified.

Rossticus said:

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I'm thinking secure Kherson and Kharkiv while denying Russia's western push towards Kramatorsk. Stalemate them in the east and see what Putin does on May 9th since Intel has been adamant that that's been his mandatory "win by" date.

You see if Putin caves and is willing to negotiate peace while accepting a tiny sliver and declaring victory at home. If so then with appropriate iron clad direct defense guarantees from other nations MAYBE Ukraine agrees to call it a day. Tough ask for Ukraine to give away access to the Azov sea, though. Huge strategic win for Russia.

If Putin's ego is too big and he demands far more land than he's even near to controlling then I think Ukraine tells him to "come and take it" and this thing goes for the long haul.

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If I were a betting man, and I'm not, I would bet on it going on for the long haul. Putin would rather die mid-war than admit defeat. Hopefully he gets his preference.

China has been sending gear into Serbia all day. We need to step up. This is becoming bigger than Ukraine. If China sees that we're willing to shrink and allow Russia to win with their aid then they learn a lesson from that which doesn't bode well for our security in the future.

More Chinese Y-20A planes heading west@ameliairheart @vcdgf555 #flightradar24 #OSINT pic.twitter.com/hxPJ3cwgDZ

— Grammar Dominatrix (@GrammarDomin8rx) April 10, 2022

Half a dozen Chinese Y-20 cargo jets popped up over Europe last night: https://t.co/bU02cH3W0W

— Tyler Rogoway (@Aviation_Intel) April 9, 2022

Rossticus said:

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China has been sending gear into Serbia all day. We need to step up. This is becoming bigger than Ukraine. If China sees that we're willing to shrink and allow Russia to win with their aid then they learn a lesson from that which doesn't bode well for our security in the future.

More Chinese Y-20A planes heading west@ameliairheart @vcdgf555 #flightradar24 #OSINT pic.twitter.com/hxPJ3cwgDZ

— Grammar Dominatrix (@GrammarDomin8rx) April 10, 2022

Half a dozen Chinese Y-20 cargo jets popped up over Europe last night: https://t.co/bU02cH3W0W

— Tyler Rogoway (@Aviation_Intel) April 9, 2022

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From the tweet:

Quote:

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Reports later emerged that the planes delivered HQ-22 surface-to-air missile systems to the Serbian military. The Washington Post reported on U.S. government warnings to Belgrade about the purchase in 2020. Serbia reportedly chose the HQ-22 over its approximate Russian counterpart, the S-300, in a surprise move.

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I just don't trust that there's nothing else going on and that's all they're dropping. It's too damn convenient.

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Wow, this thing has incredible off road capability. It could be a very formidable addition to the Uke arsenal, navigating thru muddy terrain to light up Russian armor.

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It looks "cool" and all but in the era of Jevelins or equivalent fielding military, it is obsolete.

It is too big and with huge size, it's asking to be taken out either by tanks themselves or even individuals with rpo/ Javelins etc...

OKC~Ag said:

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Quote:

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Wow, this thing has incredible off road capability. It could be a very formidable addition to the Uke arsenal, navigating thru muddy terrain to light up Russian armor.

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It looks "cool" and all but in the era of Jevelins or equivalent fielding military, it is obsolete.

It is too big and with huge size, it's asking to be taken out either by tanks themselves or even individuals with rpo/ Javelins etc...

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Surface fire support isn't obsolete and yet all artillery, SP and towed, is vulnerable to direct fire attack. The purpose of that .50 caliber length tube is to allow the howitzer to be positioned far enough behind the FLOT that it can range the enemy. If enemy tanks are in range of those guns then the battle is already lost.

If properly protected, those guns could be very useful to the Ukrainians. Their challenge is that they will struggle to protect those guns from attack by air and Russian counterbattery fire. They will have to move only at night and be well camouflaged under radar scattering netting to avoid detection and they will have to move quickly after firing.

#Ukraine: Two very modern T-80BVM tanks were lost by the Russian army in #Donetsk Oblast - one was destroyed with a pretty expected result and another was detracked. pic.twitter.com/eqGr0I7BjX

— 🇺🇦 Ukraine Weapons Tracker (@UAWeapons) April 10, 2022

Very interesting "spontaneous" pro-russian-occupation rally in occupied Nova Kakhivka today. The "local" men, massive crowd, seems to be all in groups of 3... pic.twitter.com/P59dgVrtEq

— Gregor Martin (@Guderian_Xaba) April 10, 2022

Russians cheering troops headed to Ukraine to massacre Ukrainians. It's really not just Putin. Russian chauvinism runs deep in society. https://t.co/xC7P1M7ktR

— Anders Östlund (@andersostlund) April 10, 2022

We've heard rumors about the howitzers for a couple days now, but the possibility of MiGs is new.

❗️#Slovakia is negotiating with #Ukraine on the supply of "Zuzana" howitzers of Slovak production and possibility to supply MiG-29 fighters, which are in service with the #Slovak Air Force.

This was reported by the #Bratislava media "Pravda".https://t.co/0TG9KovwaD

— NEXTA (@nexta_tv) April 10, 2022

#Ukraine: The first video of a UK-supplied Martlet multirole missile - not a Starstreak as widely claimed - in action with the Ukrainian troops. As reported, it took out a Russian Orlan-10 UAV and this appears credible given the reaction, but we cannot see precisely what was hit. pic.twitter.com/i6sP6649h6

— 🇺🇦 Ukraine Weapons Tracker (@UAWeapons) April 10, 2022

🧵Looking at the images released by @Maxar of the convoy and it being 13km long, I estimate it to consist of ≈ 400 Russian vehicles.

This image is 49.997077, 37.397610 and length photographed is ≈500m. There are 16 vehicles total (10 trucks, 6 armored vehicles). 1/ https://t.co/SuEVok8NhQ pic.twitter.com/ri7bd1S6mN

— Oliver Alexander (@OAlexanderDK) April 10, 2022