***Russian - Ukraine War Tactical and Strategic Updates*** [Warning on OP]

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WesMaroon&White
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Every Russian soldier will bring a piece of Chernobyl home. Alive or dead - Herman Galushchenko
All the occupiers in the Exclusion Zone received large doses of radiation, and their military equipment was also contaminated.
This was stated by Energy Minister Herman Galushchenko following a visit to the Exclusion Zone and the Chernobyl nuclear power plant.
"The ignorance of Russian soldiers is as outrageous as the dosimeters we used to check the radiation background at the location of the invaders. They dug bare soil contaminated with radiation, collected radioactive sand in bags for fortifications, breathed this dust. After a month of such exposure, they have a maximum of one year of life. More precisely, not life, but slow death from diseases ", - the Minister emphasized.
He said that the Russian military looted the station, administrative premises, took away everything from utensils to spare parts and appliances.
Not only the entire personnel of the occupiers and "trophies" were infected, but also all the military equipment that passed through Chernobyl - about 10 thousand units. Every Russian soldier will bring a piece of Chernobyl home. Alive or dead, "Herman Galushchenko stressed.
He also noted that the metal is well exposed to radiation and transmits radiation. This threatens radioactive contamination to anyone who comes into contact with property or equipment from the Chernobyl nuclear power plant.
"Russians are killing everyone: Ukrainians are being killed by bombs, and their own - by radiation from the Chernobyl nuclear power plant," the minister said.
During the visit, Herman Galushchenko also met and talked with Chernobyl staff.
"I thanked these brave men and women for their endurance and patience. They really are heroes! We will soon restore everything destroyed, we will establish rotation of changes now and return the work on maintenance of the station to normal, "Herman Galushchenko summed up.
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May be a stupid question, but how do these troops keep it all straight with who is on their side or not? Guessing there ends up quite a bit of friendly fire?
Jetpilot86
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Premium said:

May be a stupid question, but how do these troops keep it all straight with who is on their side or not? Guessing there ends up quite a bit of friendly fire?
Blue or Yellow tape on arm is Ukraine. Red or white is Russia.
WesMaroon&White
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aggiehawg
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This seems badass.

aggiehawg
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Quote:

The director of the Defense Intelligence Agency described the sharing of information and intelligence between the United States and the Ukrainians as "revolutionary in terms of what we can do" at a Thursday congressional hearing.

Army Lt. Gen. Scott Berrier told the House Armed Services subcommittee on intelligence that he could go into greater detail on how this is being done in a closed session.

Army Gen. Paul Nakasone, who heads both Cyber Command and the National Security Agency, said that "in my 35 years" he has never seen a better sharing of accurate, timely and actionable intelligence than what has transpired with Ukraine.

The value of sharing information and intelligence with allies is that it "builds coalitions" and can "shine a light on disinformation" campaigns like the one Russia used to lay the groundwork for their invasion, Nakasone added. The question came down to "how do we share information that is relevant … and usable by the Ukrainians" in the conflict.
Quote:

Nakasone added the "secret sauce" for NSA's success has been its ability to work outside the country, seeing "what our adversary is doing" and how that can affect the United States. He said the nation needs platforms as established as Air Force KC-135s, space satellites and sensors and on-the-ground collection to be effective.
Link

Loose lips, sink ships.
MeatDr
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MeatDr
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ttu_85
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WesMaroon&White said:


Great Idea, weaponize vodka..I see endless possibilities here.
txags92
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MeatDr said:


Aren't some FAE bombs dropped with chutes to slow them down?
Ulysses90
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aggiehawg said:

Ulysses90 said:

aggiehawg said:

Also, could you review this and let me know if it is accurate? This guy is cited by mostly pro-Putin sources but it sounds plausible.

That explanation makes a lot of sense to me. Cluster munitions, whether from an artillery shell or a rocket, are designed with what is referred to as an "expelling charge" rather than a "bursting sharge". The idea is that the submunitions are expelled at ~20m above the ground to scatter the submunitions to cover a large area with fragmentation. The rocket body is mostly undamaged from the detaonation of the expelling charge but will be damaged, but still in one piece, from hitting the ground.
How about the part of being able to determine origin of the missile just from the positioning on the ground of the rocket body? That seems kind of random to me.

I didn't read that far initially but after looking at the photos on that page and verifying that the orientation of the photo with respect to grid north was correct (based on a comparison using Google Earth, it does appear that the rocket body came from an azimuth of ~255 degrees (i,e, azimuth of fire ~75 degrees). That does raise a serious question about the point of origin and who fired the rocket.

I am guessing from appearances in the photos linked above that the rocket body landed ~60 meters short of where the submunitions seem to have impacted in front of the train station. That would indicate a low bursting height about ~10m above ground and the submunitions went farther than the rocket body and impacted at the train station. That scenario seems to make sense from a rough estimate of where you would expect the submunitions to land from a 10m height of burst.

The Tochka-U has a max range of 120km but, a long range shot would suggest a steeper angle of fall and the rocket body would be sticking fins-up out of the ground. It seems to have impacted at a low angle of incidence which suggests that it was fired at a low angle from a point much less distant than the max 120km range.

Unless the orientation of the rocket body was significantly different from the azimuth of fire then is does appear to have been fired from a point of origin in territory to the west-southwest controlled by the Ukrainian forces. Based on the publicly available information, I can't make a rebuttal to the assertion that the Tochka-U seems to have been fired from Ukrainian held territory.

Someone who has experience with US Army or Marine Corps MLRS or ATACM missiles could offer a better interpretation than I can because my only experience is with howitzer shells. Is ~10m HoB correct? could the submunitions have been expelled at a greater height and fallen short of where the rocket body landed (implying that it came from the opposite direction and the rocket body was inverted? I don't know.





aggiehawg
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Quote:

That does raise a serious question about the point of origin and who fired the rocket.
So we are back to not really knowing where it came from, I guess.
TheGroupGuy
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Tactically one of the biggest barriers to entry in the US voluntary military is low intelligence. It's tough for recruiters to find intellectually and morally qualified recruits. Contrast that against a force conscripted. Throw in advanced weaponry. Add in reserves called back to service. No NCOs few cadre. You get a bunch of troops filling sandbags at Chernobyl and souvenir hunting. Oh and no encrypted communications vs state of the art intell trained by professionals. This ends poorly for Russia take out the artillery and rockets they are done. I would expect increased attacks on arty and launch air assets in Russia.
Ulysses90
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aggiehawg said:

Quote:

That does raise a serious question about the point of origin and who fired the rocket.
So we are back to not really knowing where it came from, I guess.
Yes.

This has really got me curious and I am trying to find other resources for information but I doubt that there is definitive information on the web, at least not in English.

Finding the point of origins for guided missiles is not as simple as for unguided rockets because they have some level of steering capability. Consider the way the US Army ATACM missile is fired to prevent the enemy from calculating its trajectory based on the the ballistic arc. The ATACM is fired at a ~90 degree angle from the direction to the target that it is going to hit. The first photo below is an ATACM guided missile being fired from a M270 SPLL (self-propelled launcher-loader). notice that it is being fired directly over the cab of the launcher. The target direction is actually in the direction that the driver side of the vehicle is facing. The ATACM initially climbs in the direction that it is launched before taking a sharp dog-leg to the left and climbing to ~50,000' going supersonic. The prevents the enemy from identifying the point of origin from the descending arc of the missile.




In this second photo the ballistic (dumb) rockets are being fired off the same M270 SPLL but they are being fired directly in the direction of the target. Typically, the SPLLs will "shoot and scoot" at least a few kilometers after firing ballistic rockets because enemy counterbattery radar can identify precisely from where the rockets were launched.



JFABNRGR
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aggiehawg said:

Quote:

That does raise a serious question about the point of origin and who fired the rocket.
So we are back to not really knowing where it came from, I guess.


No were not but somebody will always becoming up with something.
bonfarr
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MeatDr said:




Is that chute to give the pilot more time to clear the area before the blast?
aggiehawg
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JFABNRGR said:

aggiehawg said:

Quote:

That does raise a serious question about the point of origin and who fired the rocket.
So we are back to not really knowing where it came from, I guess.


No were not but somebody will always becoming up with something.
Thanks. I'm just trying to keep it honest. Fog of war and all.
txags92
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bonfarr said:

MeatDr said:




Is that chute to give the pilot more time to clear the area before the blast?
If it is an FAE, they want it to drop slow enough that the first charge can go off to distribute the fuel, and then the second charge can ignite the cloud of fuel. The effect is similar to a BLEVE when a train car or tanker truck explodes.
Ulysses90
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TheGroupGuy said:

Tactically one of the biggest barriers to entry in the US voluntary military is low intelligence. It's tough for recruiters to find intellectually and morally qualified recruits. Contrast that against a force conscripted. Throw in advanced weaponry. Add in reserves called back to service. No NCOs few cadre. You get a bunch of troops filling sandbags at Chernobyl and souvenir hunting. Oh and no encrypted communications vs state of the art intell trained by professionals. This ends poorly for Russia take out the artillery and rockets they are done. I would expect increased attacks on arty and launch air assets in Russia.

I concur completely. I did a tour on recruiting duty in the mid 1990s and the mental aptitude requirements for many MOS fields excluded the majority of interested applicants. The US military on the whole seeks to recruit 60% from the upper half of the population as measured by the AFQT score on the ASVAB. My sense is that the Russian conscription process excludes almost no one for any reason.

On the flip side of conscript armies, I spent a little time with the Swiss Land Forces and their conscript soldiers are a completely different story. A lot of their conscript soldiers have advanced degrees. After their 22 weeks of initial active duty training they go to a reserve status and back to their regular jobs. I met some Swiss soldiers that worked at the managerial level at Credit Suisse, Swisscom, and other large companies.

The Swiss military equipment and facilities are exactly what you would expect. The only have a small number of forces and only one or two training installations but those installations and equipment are like a Rolex watch compared to what you would find in most militaries.
Rossticus
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I haven't seen this video and am not looking for it. But, FYI, it apparently exists, which is horrific.



Rossticus
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Rossticus
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Rossticus
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Even foreign volunteers in Ukraine helping the critters.

Rossticus
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Waffledynamics
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Rossticus said:




Proof that the Cold War never ended. It just evolved.

ETA: Every former Soviet state should be on notice.
JJxvi
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The last state remaining in the USSR was Kazakhstan, so I guess Russia also " illegally withdrew from the USSR"
Rossticus
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Russia should "go invade itself".
TXAggie2011
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Important Twitter thread…

Square Pair
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wangus12 said:

I think the longer this goes on the greater the chance that Poland ends up with boots on the ground


In Oct 21 I attended the Global Special Operations Forces (GSOF) conference in Warsaw. Left extremely impressed with their capabilities. If Poland puts boots on the ground, that will be the catalyst to a wider war. Ukraine bloodied Russia's nose, Poland would just beat the **** out of their ground forces.
UTExan
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Rossticus said:




If France DIDN'T carry out military operations in former colonies, there would be widespread genocide and slavery.
“If you’re going to have crime it should at least be organized crime”
-Havelock Vetinari
Ulrich
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Is there an easier way to read this?
Post removed:
by user
Rossticus
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Exactly.
shiftyandquick
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TXAggie2011 said:

Important Twitter thread…


I was listening to the BBC podcast the other day, and they were interviewing an old Ukrainian woman who has been hiding in a basement from Russian bombs. She praises Putin, even though Putin is trying to kill her.

It's weird.

This idea that freedom as we know it in the west is a good thing is a completely foreign concept to many people.
MeatDr
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Ulrich said:

Is there an easier way to read this?

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1512911246957420555.html
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