***Russian - Ukraine War Tactical and Strategic Updates*** [Warning on OP]

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Rossticus
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6:32p, 4/6/22
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Rossticus
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In reply to RebelE Infantry • 6:37p, 4/6/22
RebelE Infantry said:
Rossticus said:
I'm not going back to dig and I don't save screenshots. Could have been a retweet or a comment. The implication of the posts was that Russia had "taken Mariupol" when it then turned out to be far less taken. Maybe it's just semantics and how you read it.


No they haven't. They've mentioned certain districts being taken but never implied that the whole city has been taken.


Sounds like you follow them quite a bit more closely than I do so I'll take your word for it. Like I said, I very well could have misinterpreted a couple of their posts. Im looking through an ass ton of stuff related to this while still holding down my day job so I'm not about to try and claim flawlessness.

I want to be accurate. Not "right".
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Rossticus
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6:49p, 4/6/22
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Sharpshooter
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In reply to Rossticus • 6:49p, 4/6/22
AG
Rossticus said:
RebelE Infantry said:
Rossticus said:
I'm not going back to dig and I don't save screenshots. Could have been a retweet or a comment. The implication of the posts was that Russia had "taken Mariupol" when it then turned out to be far less taken. Maybe it's just semantics and how you read it.


No they haven't. They've mentioned certain districts being taken but never implied that the whole city has been taken.


Sounds like you follow them quite a bit more closely than I do so I'll take your word for it. Like I said, I very well could have misinterpreted a couple of their posts. Im looking through an ass ton of stuff related to this while still holding down my day job so I'm not about to try and claim flawlessness.

I want to be accurate. Not "right".
And, you are doing a good job. Keep it up for those of us who are non-military, old as heck when it comes to technology, and are simply following what is posted here. I am amaze at the info all of the posters on here are able to gather. While amazing, it also scares ths siht out of me.
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Aggieland Proud
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In reply to Rossticus • 6:58p, 4/6/22
AG
Rossticus, there was a report from some bunch that made the claim the city had fallen. However, it was subsequently reported that not all the city had in fact fallen. You were "right" and "accurate" about the one report though. The fog of war!
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agent-maroon
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In reply to aggiehawg • 7:00p, 4/6/22
AG
Quote:
Russia must catch him & execute him. A fair & honest court should impartially & to the fullest extent of the law sentence him to death
The rooski version of "give him a fair trial and hang him"
No material on this site is intended to be a substitute for professional medical advice, diagnosis or treatment. See full Medical Disclaimer.
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Rossticus
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In reply to Sharpshooter • 7:01p, 4/6/22
Sharpshooter said:
Rossticus said:
RebelE Infantry said:
Rossticus said:
I'm not going back to dig and I don't save screenshots. Could have been a retweet or a comment. The implication of the posts was that Russia had "taken Mariupol" when it then turned out to be far less taken. Maybe it's just semantics and how you read it.


No they haven't. They've mentioned certain districts being taken but never implied that the whole city has been taken.


Sounds like you follow them quite a bit more closely than I do so I'll take your word for it. Like I said, I very well could have misinterpreted a couple of their posts. Im looking through an ass ton of stuff related to this while still holding down my day job so I'm not about to try and claim flawlessness.

I want to be accurate. Not "right".
And, you are doing a good job. Keep it up for those of us who are non-military, old as heck when it comes to technology, and are simply following what is posted here. I am amaze at the info all of the posters on here are able to gather. While amazing, it also scares ths siht out of me.


Thanks. I really appreciate it. Yeah. I'm old enough to remember a time before prolific daily tech and I wish I could go back to visit every so often just to do a hard reset and refresh my brain.
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Rossticus
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In reply to Aggieland Proud • 7:04p, 4/6/22
Aggieland Proud said:
Rossticus, there was a report from some bunch that made the claim the city had fallen. However, it was subsequently reported that not all the city had in fact fallen. You were "right" and "accurate" about the one report though. The fog of war!


Thanks! I'm glad I have you and so many others to keep me on track! I really value everyone's help and input in making sure we all have the best info to work from.
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shiftyandquick
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7:07p, 4/6/22
I have fantasies of Ukraine invading and defeating Russia now. That's my best "never again" scenario. Utter calamity and defeat of Russia, to reset the world order. Russia has committed enough evil over 100+ years that it is a multigenerational scourge on the free world.
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Rossticus
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7:09p, 4/6/22
Not the direction you want things to continue heading in but I haven't seen any reason to feel that he's wrong, either.

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Rossticus
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7:11p, 4/6/22
I have no words for France. Well, I do but they're not nice at all.

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RebelE Infantry
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In reply to Rossticus • 7:15p, 4/6/22
AG
Rossticus said:
I have no words for France. Well, I do but they're not nice at all.



How is this a bad thing?
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TAMUallen
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In reply to RebelE Infantry • 7:17p, 4/6/22
AG
RebelE Infantry said:
Rossticus said:
I have no words for France. Well, I do but they're not nice at all.



How is this a bad thing?


Umm asking Russians for permission in Ukrainian lands
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ATX_AG_08
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In reply to RebelE Infantry • 7:24p, 4/6/22
AG
RebelE Infantry said:
Rossticus said:
I have no words for France. Well, I do but they're not nice at all.



How is this a bad thing?


The mayor is claiming 5000 people could be dead. Russia of course doesn't want to allow people to come document or aid. They've been delaying for weeks. The more time they delay the more time they have to cover up atrocities. They could execute as many as they want and claim they evacuated them all to Russia where they're living happily.

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Rossticus
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7:31p, 4/6/22
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Waffledynamics
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In reply to Rossticus • 7:31p, 4/6/22
AG
Rossticus said:
I have no words for France. Well, I do but they're not nice at all.

I saw this pre-edit, and it was pretty funny.

That being said, I wonder if that's a cover for plausible deniability.
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Rossticus
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In reply to Waffledynamics • 7:36p, 4/6/22
Thanks, lol. Staff has relaxed the ban hammer a bit but I caught a few for editorializing in the early weeks so I try to check myself in order to be on the safe side. One can hope that they're a bit more proactive than they're letting on.
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RebelE Infantry
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In reply to TAMUallen • 7:45p, 4/6/22
AG
TAMUallen said:
RebelE Infantry said:
Rossticus said:
I have no words for France. Well, I do but they're not nice at all.



How is this a bad thing?


Umm asking Russians for permission in Ukrainian lands


Ah ok gotcha.

From a purely practical perspective it's probably not a good idea to unilaterally conduct such an operation when Russia controls the sea and land approaches.
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TH36
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In reply to TAMUallen • 7:55p, 4/6/22
TAMUallen said:
RebelE Infantry said:
Rossticus said:
I have no words for France. Well, I do but they're not nice at all.



How is this a bad thing?


Umm asking Russians for permission in Ukrainian lands


This is something I haven't understood during this whole time. Ukraine is still very much in charge of their own country yet there's all this "let's take soft steps" in supplying them with stuff. Screw that, it's no different than if they ordered 100 tanks in peace time. Just say it's a brokered deal where they're writing one big IOU.
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Rossticus
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In reply to RebelE Infantry • 7:55p, 4/6/22
Not bad. Just pointless and weak. Serves no purpose apart from a domestic political one. "We really wanted to help but he wouldn't let us".
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TriAg2010
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In reply to TH36 • 7:58p, 4/6/22
AG
TH36 said:
TAMUallen said:
RebelE Infantry said:
Rossticus said:
I have no words for France. Well, I do but they're not nice at all.



How is this a bad thing?


Umm asking Russians for permission in Ukrainian lands


This is something I haven't understood during this whole time. Ukraine is still very much in charge of their own country yet there's all this "let's take soft steps" in supplying them with stuff. Screw that, it's no different than if they ordered 100 tanks in peace time. Just say it's a brokered deal where they're writing one big IOU.


The best defense dollars we will ever spend is giving arms to Ukraine. Every Russian tank Ukraine destroys us one less Russian tank NATO has to worry about.
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Sharpshooter
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In reply to TH36 • 7:59p, 4/6/22
AG
TH36 said:
TAMUallen said:
RebelE Infantry said:
Rossticus said:
I have no words for France. Well, I do but they're not nice at all.



How is this a bad thing?


Umm asking Russians for permission in Ukrainian lands


This is something I haven't understood during this whole time. Ukraine is still very much in charge of their own country yet there's all this "let's take soft steps" in supplying them with stuff. Screw that, it's no different than if they ordered 100 tanks in peace time. Just say it's a brokered deal where they're writing one big IOU.
This. In WWII Lend/Lease would never have happened!!
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Dawg6
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8:06p, 4/6/22
AG
Ukraine war update from an old soldier who back in our day had great concerns about the Russian/Soviet military.
The Russians effort so far has shown the importance of logistics and front line line leadership. They have never caught on to the essential use of NCO's (Sergeants) who really run the military.
It is apparent to these tired eyes that Russians completely lack leadership that avoids atrocities that we've seen in Bucha (near the capital of Kiev). There will will be much more atrocities as the Ukrainian forces continue to regain ground as the Russians continue their withdrawal in the north and east away from their failed attempt to capture Kiev.
This war will change in the coming weeks as the ground changes from marshy, forested terrain to the open steppes of flat, open farmland, the bread basket of Ukraine. This should be an advantage to the Russian force given their superiority in tanks, air support and always artillery (the Russians have always loved their artillery). However, the Ukrainians have the advantage of interior lines of supply and high morale.
Maneuver will be much better for the Russians as the terrain supports their military as the winter ends and the ground becomes firmer for their tanks. They will attempt to capture the eastern part of Ukraine, the most prosperous part of Ukraine, not only for its fertile fields but major oil and gas reserves.
This war will get bloodier. The Ukrainians have shown great resilience thus far but their task is about to get much harder. I suspect that the Russians will attempt to attack from the north and south in a pincer movement to surround the defending itself force of Ukrainians in the eastern part of Ukraine.
I still think the Ukrainians will win. As Napolon Bonaparte said, "moral is to the physical ten to one." This will be the decisive difference.
Prayers for Ukraine.
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ATX_AG_08
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8:20p, 4/6/22
AG
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Rossticus
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8:26p, 4/6/22
Ukes receiving Pumas. AeroVironment doing work.



https://www.avinc.com/uas/puma-ae
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Rossticus
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8:29p, 4/6/22
I'm gonna go with "no way in hell" but here is the newest wild ass story. Please note the sources (Alexander Bunin is a piece of "work"). Enjoy.



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bonfarr
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8:37p, 4/6/22
AG
My thoughts on a possible psyops program for the CIA :Message to Russian Soldiers - Silver or Lead

The Ukrainians have doxxed cellphone contacts for over 100,000 Russian Soldiers engaged in the war in Ukraine. They have been using bots to communicate to them encouraging them
to surrender but I would take it a step further.

Send messages to every Russian soldier with instructions on how to surrender with a price list for any working equipment they turn over to the Uke Army.

$150,000 US for a working T-72 tank. 3 man crew so $50k each.

$250,000 for a working MLRS with a full load of rockets.

So much for an APC, mobile artillery, support vehicle, etc. all paid in cold hard U.S. cash and offer them safe passage to Poland or Romania where we will buy them a plane ticket to anywhere they want to go. Tell them we will send them to the Caribbean where they can visit casinos, drink, and chase women instead of getting their asses cooked by a Javelin. Offer them Silver or Lead Pablo Escobar style.

I would really play up the narrative that they get crappy expired rations and cheap shoddy rotten supplies because the Russian fat cat bureaucrats stole all the money that was supposed to be to for their safety and comfort. Why shouldn't they have an opportunity to do the same while surviving a war they didn't want to fight anyway.

Would this have any impact?
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MeatDr
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8:38p, 4/6/22
AG
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Rossticus
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8:39p, 4/6/22
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Rossticus
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8:42p, 4/6/22
Mildly graphic. The implications are worse than the pic but if you're a dog lover with a particularly weak constitution you may want to sit this one out.

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1511661959883730948.html
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agent-maroon
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In reply to MeatDr • 8:43p, 4/6/22
AG
MeatDr said:
Thought I read earlier in the thread that the logs were to help vehicles get unstuck from the mud. If they really are using it for armor then it's time to get those Molotov cocktails back in the action
No material on this site is intended to be a substitute for professional medical advice, diagnosis or treatment. See full Medical Disclaimer.
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Seabreeze
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In reply to Rossticus • 8:49p, 4/6/22
Rossticus said:
Mildly graphic. The implications are worse than the pic but if you're a dog lover with a particularly weak constitution you may want to sit this one out.

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1511661959883730948.html

Not watching that, thanks for the warning
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Ulysses90
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In reply to Dawg6 • 8:51p, 4/6/22
AG
I disagree with you analysis on the basis that the Russians have no superiority in tanks at this time and they never will again. They spent their advantage in number wastefully with poor tactics and leadership. My observations are only based on the sources that have been posted in this thread but I am seeing something different from what you are seeing.

The Russians can't put together a pincer movement because that requires covering distances quickly and we know form the past six weeks that they cannot move far because their log trains weren't designed to support rapid long distance movement. They cannot move fast because they don't know how to employ combined arms (i.e. maneuver communicating with fire support while on the move). As Trent Telenko explained very well in his Twitter posts, the Russian trucks have no forklifts or MHE to load and unload them. They might begin to form the shape of a pincer but it will calcify and become static for lack of fuel and ammo resupply and the Ukrainians will put an even finer polish on the tactics that they employed in February and March against the initial invasion.

Russian artillery is devastating and they have a lot of it. However, they have employed that devastating capability almost exclusively against fixed infrastructure and not against Ukrainian military forces in the field. Looking back over the past month of reports, the Russian artillery is always aimed at geographic reference points that are picked from a map and not from forward observers with eyes on the Ukrainian military. Thos missions are called by the commander and not by forward observers. If you substract the attacks on civilian targets in the cities from the total of Russian artillery missions, they seem to have left the Ukrainian Army and territorial defense forces mostly unscathed. The Russian infantry operates as if they have never seen an artillery FO team embedded with their units, let alone a forward air controller.

By comparison, the Ukrainians have mauled the RF forces with artillery using both ground observers and drones. I would expect the Russians to continue using artillery as a siege weapons to destroy infrastructure because they can't grow a fast and efficient kill chain from observer to firing unit overnight.

The RF army had almost no unit cohesion from the very beginning and they will have less going forward. Units cobbled together with a newly assigned officer to take charge of exhausted and combat traumatized veterans thrown together with conscripts or grafted onto the remnants of another unit are not going to perform well and may dissolve entirely in combat. The units pulled out of combat in the Kyiv region will be put back into the fight with the same beat to hell equipment that they have been using since February.

I see no evidence that the RF forces will perform any better in the future against Ukrainian forces that they have thus far. On the other hand, I see no evidence that their artillery will not continue to flatten the cities and kill thousands of Ukrainian civilians and where the Russian infantry occupies populated areas, the atrocities will continue and probably increase. We are in agreement that it will get bloodier.

The biggest risk for the Ukrainian military is that they will over extend themselves while trying to relieve the suffering of the civilians and the Russians can exploit that. The Ukrainian army is heroic and the Russians will bait them into attempting heroic acts on pre-planned targets. That's a horrible dilemma especially as they are holding the families of Ukrainian soldiers hostage in the east for this very purpose.


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Rossticus
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In reply to Ulysses90 • 8:57p, 4/6/22
Speaking of Ukrainian artillery…

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Rossticus
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9:06p, 4/6/22
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