Good thread on what Russia's next moves would look like.
https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1509701303391326210.html

aggiehawg said:

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If anything, their opening hypothesis is incorrect. Air superiority will not win this war. Just as it didn't win any wars for the United States. You have to be able to control the ground and the populace. And the Russians simply do not have the force numbers to do that.

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True.

Air superiority just hastens the process of denying them the ground and provides cover for Uke ground troops to reclaim territory and drive the Russians out including the Donbas and Crimea.

I understand the Ukrainian frustration on this subject because they do have a tremendous and rare opportunity to do just that, right now. Russia's neck is exposed as far as conventional warfare is concerned.

Hence the plethora of nuclear threats from Russia.

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I disagree. Combined arms makes the difference. When the air is clear, the ground forces are able to move freely based on ground conditions.

Is Russia fixing to go all in? Starting to look like it.

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The MIGS would have allowed the Ukes to double or even triple their sorties. I think I read they were flying 5-10 per day with their limited 50-60 birds.

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You can make that assertion if you assume that a shortage of air frames is the reason for low sortie generation rate and that the cause is not based on a shortage of runways, fuel, ordnance, repair parts, mechanics, or pilots. The Ukrainians are probably suffering shortages of all of the above.

RebelE Infantry said:

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Seabreeze said:

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Is Russia fixing to go all in? Starting to look like it.

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It does appear that they are getting ready to launch an offensive all along the Donbas front to try and deliver a knockout punch to the UKR army. With Mariupol more or less in hand, they will have a little more flexibility with troop deployment along the front to exploit any potential breakthroughs.

The question is how many troops is UKR willing to peel off the Kiev front to try and reinforce Donbas, and how quickly can they get there?

Either way we may be about to see the largest battle on European soil since 1945.

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Agreed, something major is about to go down.

Rossticus said:

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Unfortunately I have not been able to follow the southern fronts after the first few days, but now some good news from there too. In linked tweet 'UAF 60th Mechanized Brigade claimed capture of: T-64 tanks, a BMP-2, a BMD-2, + ZU-23-2 anti-aircraft auto-cannon mounted on a MT-LB. https://t.co/w61fKgsZ7B

— Dan (@Danspiun) April 1, 2022

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I want to see pictures of the T-64s captured or destroyed. If they are actually deploying those, that's a really bad sign for the Russians, and maybe everyone else too. If they are getting that desperate, what is their next step of desperation?

Oryx has the pictures.

ABATTBQ11 said:

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Oryx has the pictures.

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No isht?

They probably belonged to one of the separatist militias. They're not as well equipped as the RU army.

I know everyone is focused on East Ukraine, but I have a bad feeling about it. It makes more sense to me to feint an all out attack from the east and launch the real attack from Belarus down the Polish border to cut Ukraine off from Europe. Then it's just a matter of time until game over.

Separatists would be out of their lane that far in unless the regulars took possession of it on their way through, no?

Rossticus said:

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yeah, I was on the fence about himars but I agree--it's a powerful system and training shouldn't be too huge of an issue. ammunition and maintenance are I think the bigger concerns but probably surmountable https://t.co/erz5kMlJ1D

— Gerry Doyle (@mgerrydoyle) April 1, 2022

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Don't see this happening. It's like saying M1A2s and M109s would be game changers.
The time to arm and train Ukraine with these weapons was in the last 5 years. I seriously doubt the Ukes have the ability to be trained with these weapons in such short a time. it would definitely be a serious escalation.

They have 10 T-64's listed with photos

AgLA06 said:

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I know everyone is focused on East Ukraine, but I have a bad feeling about it. It makes more sense to me to feint an all out attack from the east and launch the real attack from Belarus down the Polish border to cut Ukraine off from Europe. Then it's just a matter of time until game over.

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Intel would be able to see that type of force amassing.

Except that the movement of vehicles, etc. eastwards is pretty damn clear. Not to mention the already-demonstrated horrible RUS OpSec, compromised comms.

Edit: sorry, meant this response to AgLa06. Drowning my basketball disappointment.

Then why is Ukraine holding so many troops in the west?

Here's one

It's my understanding that the DPR and LPR Peoples Militias fighting on the front side by side with the regular army.

deddog said:

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Rossticus said:

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yeah, I was on the fence about himars but I agree--it's a powerful system and training shouldn't be too huge of an issue. ammunition and maintenance are I think the bigger concerns but probably surmountable https://t.co/erz5kMlJ1D

— Gerry Doyle (@mgerrydoyle) April 1, 2022

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Don't see this happening. It's like saying M1A2s and M109s would be game changers.
The time to arm and train Ukraine with these weapons was in the last 5 years. I seriously doubt the Ukes have the ability to be trained with these weapons in such short a time. it would definitely be a serious escalation.

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FWIW

(Reuters) - Britain and its allies have agreed to send air and coastal defence systems, longer-range artillery and counter battery capabilities, armoured vehicles as well as provide wider training and logistical support to Ukraine, British defence minister Ben Wallace said

— Phil Stewart (@phildstewart) March 31, 2022

ABATTBQ11 said:

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Here's one

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If thats a t64 seems like its highly modded. Im no expert anymore but that looks like a 90 iirc

"Day 36, we continue to observe some Russian forces begin to continue to observe them repositioning away from Kyiv, particularly from the north and northwest of Kyiv... I'd still roughly leave it at about 20 percent or so"

— OSINTtechnical (@Osinttechnical) April 1, 2022

Thread:

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1509726266945155078.html

Link to the transcript https://t.co/YYcuLmSCR6

— OSINTtechnical (@Osinttechnical) April 1, 2022

Rossticus said:

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deddog said:

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Rossticus said:

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yeah, I was on the fence about himars but I agree--it's a powerful system and training shouldn't be too huge of an issue. ammunition and maintenance are I think the bigger concerns but probably surmountable https://t.co/erz5kMlJ1D

— Gerry Doyle (@mgerrydoyle) April 1, 2022

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Don't see this happening. It's like saying M1A2s and M109s would be game changers.
The time to arm and train Ukraine with these weapons was in the last 5 years. I seriously doubt the Ukes have the ability to be trained with these weapons in such short a time. it would definitely be a serious escalation.

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FWIW

(Reuters) - Britain and its allies have agreed to send air and coastal defence systems, longer-range artillery and counter battery capabilities, armoured vehicles as well as provide wider training and logistical support to Ukraine, British defence minister Ben Wallace said

— Phil Stewart (@phildstewart) March 31, 2022

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LOL I was proved wrong in 1 post. Clearly i know nothing :-)
It seems like counter battery weapons would need a significant amount of training no?

He said "wider training". Maybe they're sending "contractors" to help operate and train.

Seabreeze said:

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RebelE Infantry said:

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Seabreeze said:

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Is Russia fixing to go all in? Starting to look like it.

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It does appear that they are getting ready to launch an offensive all along the Donbas front to try and deliver a knockout punch to the UKR army. With Mariupol more or less in hand, they will have a little more flexibility with troop deployment along the front to exploit any potential breakthroughs.

The question is how many troops is UKR willing to peel off the Kiev front to try and reinforce Donbas, and how quickly can they get there?

Either way we may be about to see the largest battle on European soil since 1945.

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Agreed, something major is about to go down.

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I don't really see any major difference other than a new commander who has been given an ultimatum to succeed or else. This commander may be a better combat leader but he still has to work with the same troops and the same equipment. Unless something gets better with russian air then we will likely see units being commanded to move forward at all costs on all eastern and southern fronts, possibly including Odessa. In some places they are likely to make gains and in other places they are likely to get slaughtered.

Ps if he is a good combat leader we should see the poland supply line continually attacked along with better combined arms actions.

⚡️Australia will send armoured Bushmaster vehicles to Ukraine -Morrison (Australian PM)⚡️

— spook (@spook_info) April 1, 2022

the east is where ukraine supply lines will be most tenuous because of the distances involved, tho. and russian airpower can operate more easily there

caveat as usual: I have no definite idea where any ukraine unit is other than what has been visually confirmed

— Gerry Doyle (@mgerrydoyle) April 1, 2022

... and filled with ukrainians who loathe them

— Gerry Doyle (@mgerrydoyle) April 1, 2022

What is that, like $5?

ETA: I looked it up. It's about $49,000 as I write this. Oh no.

Translation pic.twitter.com/yXVBJdCbNX

— Dmitri (@mdmitri91) March 31, 2022

Russians are digging in. Makes sense the Ukes would be taking more casualties unfortunately. The first few weeks were crucial of course but this next month or two is going to be what truly decides the new outcome those valiant early days bought them I think.

Russia is increasingly looking to take a half win while the Ukes remain steadfast in their core demands. The war has already changed and now it is only up to Russia(Putin) to decide how deep this rabbit hole can really go.

Charpie said:

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⚡️Russia threatens Wikipedia with 4 million ruble fine for articles about Russia's invasion.

Roskomnadzor demanded that Wikipedia remove “inaccurate information on a special military operation of the Russian Federation in Ukraine aimed at misinformation of Russian users.”

— The Kyiv Independent (@KyivIndependent) April 1, 2022

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What is that, $3.50? I'll pony up $3,50.