"[E]ither it is redeployment and regrouping, or there is a possibility that these BTGs will partially withdraw and reappear in Donbas."
— Michael Weiss 🌻🇺🇸🇮🇪 (@michaeldweiss) March 31, 2022
***Russian - Ukraine War Tactical and Strategic Updates*** [Warning on OP]
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Last: 8 hrs ago by 74OA
They typically have fighter escorts with them anywaymickeyrig06sq3 said:Yup. When we send them within 5 miles of the border accompanied by a fighter escort, that's when it'll be worth a pucker factor.JFABNRGR said:Nothing new here. There has been two in theatre this whole time typically flying together at least once every 3 days or so, at least publicly and almost always out of England.Rossticus said:Whoa, a B-52 circling near Belarus and Kaliningrad thats definitely sending a message. pic.twitter.com/Sp6Ggp60po
— OSINTdefender (@sentdefender) March 31, 2022
Yesterday there was a couple training over the US and probably have warning order to rotate in or supplement.
Probably carrying ALCMs and I would have been fine had they used a few already.
Russia ginning up more BS.
Russian defense ministry alleges that Ukraine was in plans to optimise Turkish-made armed drone Akinci to use them in bio attacks
— Ragıp Soylu (@ragipsoylu) March 31, 2022
Ukraine doesn’t have any Akinci
Moscow is really bothered by steady supply of armed drones to Ukraine from Turkey. So they go down that rabbit hole pic.twitter.com/nmkHZne7pd
⚡️EXPLOSIONS IN ODESSA, DNIPRO AND KHARKIV⚡️
— spook (@spook_info) March 31, 2022
You can stuff a lot of goodies into an AN-124 and even more into four.
7 Antonovs An-124, the world's largest commercial cargo aircraft, at 🇩🇪Leipzig-Halle Airport, 27 Mar 2022. 4 are Ukrainian and fly. 3 are Russian and don't fly.
— Gerjon | חריון (@Gerjon_) March 31, 2022
Antonov Airlines: 🇺🇦UR-82007,🇺🇦UR-82027,🇺🇦UR-82029,🇺🇦UR-82072
Volga-Dnepr Airlines: 🇷🇺RA-82043, 🇷🇺RA-82045, 🇷🇺RA-82046 https://t.co/ngtlulry48 pic.twitter.com/4EBrtImUJB
Isn't this how it worked with our boys in Vietnam? The drafted served a year and then got turned loose?txags92 said:That is how their system works. Each conscript group serves for 2 years and they do a new group every 6 months. So for most of their enlisted men, they have at most 2 years of experience, and most of them less than that. Their NCOs are mostly from the conscripts that are in their last 6 months of service, so they have a constant rotation in their leadership. It puts a ton of pressure on the officers and forces them to "lead from the front", which is why you see so many getting killed. That #2 is just releasing the people who have served their 2 years from service.mickeyrig06sq3 said:
That's kind of confusing. Item #1 said they're implementing a draft, but #2 says they're getting rid of military people whose terms of service have expired. That's a weird contradiction for their policy.
I think the draft terms were for 2 years. Russians have shortened theirs to 1 year now, which basically means they do about 5-6 months training and really only effectively serve for 6-7 months tops.tk111 said:Isn't this how it worked with our boys in Vietnam? The drafted served a year and then got turned loose?txags92 said:That is how their system works. Each conscript group serves for 2 years and they do a new group every 6 months. So for most of their enlisted men, they have at most 2 years of experience, and most of them less than that. Their NCOs are mostly from the conscripts that are in their last 6 months of service, so they have a constant rotation in their leadership. It puts a ton of pressure on the officers and forces them to "lead from the front", which is why you see so many getting killed. That #2 is just releasing the people who have served their 2 years from service.mickeyrig06sq3 said:
That's kind of confusing. Item #1 said they're implementing a draft, but #2 says they're getting rid of military people whose terms of service have expired. That's a weird contradiction for their policy.
Apparently, 3 out of 4 Mi-8s made it out per Julian Roepcke.
Pro-Russian channels say that at least 2 Ukrainian helicopters were shot down near Mariupol today. They claim that Azov leadership was trying to evacuate from the surrounded city, and that 3 people from a second downed helo survived and were captured.
— Status-6 (@Archer83Able) March 31, 2022
sad. more graphic pics on reddit. some of the dead were already wearing bandages.TRM said:
Apparently, 3 out of 4 Mi-8s made it out per Julian Roepcke.Pro-Russian channels say that at least 2 Ukrainian helicopters were shot down near Mariupol today. They claim that Azov leadership was trying to evacuate from the surrounded city, and that 3 people from a second downed helo survived and were captured.
— Status-6 (@Archer83Able) March 31, 2022
In good news, drone footage over hostomel aiport show area clear of russians.
https://www.reddit.com/r/RussiaUkraineWar2022/comments/tt9x9r/uav_footage_of_hostomel_airport_reportedly_from/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x&context=3
This is quite unusual: a USAF (🇺🇸) C-17 transport aircraft landing at Schiphol airport, The Netherlands (🇳🇱).
— Aerospace Intelligence (@space_osint) March 31, 2022
call. RCH799
reg. 07-7182
hex. #AE20C3 pic.twitter.com/kjV3e7NZgZ
— Aerospace Intelligence (@space_osint) March 31, 2022
Russian Forces have completely left Hostomel Airport, Kyiv Oblast. pic.twitter.com/JLsvrAbHjy
— Aldin 🇧🇦 (@tinso_ww) March 31, 2022
Interesting statement from UAF…
For non-tweeters: https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1509619179850240005.html
📍As we defend our country against 🇷🇺 aggression, information is one of the most powerful weapons at our disposal. We ask journalists from all nations to take care to avoid supporting the 🇷🇺 army by spreading inaccurate information. (2/16)
— Ukrainian Air Force (@KpsZSU) March 31, 2022
For non-tweeters: https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1509619179850240005.html
That makes me mad. Just giving lip service but not following through on aid to Ukraine is really s***ty.
We're in deep enough now that we need to get them whatever it takes to win. Pissing off tens of billions of dollars in aide and equipment, plus the costs of the humanitarian crisis, the resultant upset of global markets only to walk away with an L and a pissed off Russia who has an axe to grind and a newfound strategic gain in Europe would make for an epic fustercluck. Play to win or don't play.
Short of boots on the ground or a no fly zone using NATO planes, NATO pilots, flying from NATO bases.Rossticus said:
We're in deep enough now that we need to get them whatever it takes to win. Pissing off tens of billions of dollars in aide and equipment, plus the costs of the humanitarian crisis, the resultant upset of global markets only to walk away with an L and a pissed off Russia who has an axe to grind and a newfound strategic gain in in Europe would make for an epic fustercluck. Play to win or don't play.
What is irking me is that there are always means to have plausible deniability using other countries as proxies to "sell" the Ukrainians what they need, including planes. CIA used to be pretty damn adept at that. Hell, Charlie Wilson figured it out.
aggiehawg said:Short of boots on the ground or a no fly zone using NATO planes, NATO pilots, flying from NATO bases.Rossticus said:
We're in deep enough now that we need to get them whatever it takes to win. Pissing off tens of billions of dollars in aide and equipment, plus the costs of the humanitarian crisis, the resultant upset of global markets only to walk away with an L and a pissed off Russia who has an axe to grind and a newfound strategic gain in in Europe would make for an epic fustercluck. Play to win or don't play.
What is irking me is that there are always means to have plausible deniability using other countries as proxies to "sell" the Ukrainians what they need, including planes. CIA used to be pretty damn adept at that. Hell, Charlie Wilson figured it out.
Exactly. There are lots of things yet to take from the Korea, Vietnam, etc playbooks that we're too tepid to employ which we should have rolled out weeks ago.
Rossticus said:
Interesting statement from UAF…📍As we defend our country against 🇷🇺 aggression, information is one of the most powerful weapons at our disposal. We ask journalists from all nations to take care to avoid supporting the 🇷🇺 army by spreading inaccurate information. (2/16)
— Ukrainian Air Force (@KpsZSU) March 31, 2022
For non-tweeters: https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1509619179850240005.html
I kind of read this as a mix between "thanks for nothing" and "we're screwed."
Is it really feasible that they could learn the F15/F16 platforms in a few weeks like they claim?Rossticus said:
Interesting statement from UAF…📍As we defend our country against 🇷🇺 aggression, information is one of the most powerful weapons at our disposal. We ask journalists from all nations to take care to avoid supporting the 🇷🇺 army by spreading inaccurate information. (2/16)
— Ukrainian Air Force (@KpsZSU) March 31, 2022
For non-tweeters: https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1509619179850240005.html
Depends on the threshold for "learning", and how many of the bells and whistles we would include in the models that get sent. That leads to the follow-up of what munitions you also send along for the ride. Training on those now comes in to play.EastSideAg2002 said:Is it really feasible that they could learn the F15/F16 platforms in a few weeks like they claim?Rossticus said:
Interesting statement from UAF…📍As we defend our country against 🇷🇺 aggression, information is one of the most powerful weapons at our disposal. We ask journalists from all nations to take care to avoid supporting the 🇷🇺 army by spreading inaccurate information. (2/16)
— Ukrainian Air Force (@KpsZSU) March 31, 2022
For non-tweeters: https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1509619179850240005.html
No not really. Better SAM's are the ticket there. Kind of ridiculous we still haven't gotten them more S-300's
EastSideAg2002 said:Is it really feasible that they could learn the F15/F16 platforms in a few weeks like they claim?Rossticus said:
Interesting statement from UAF…📍As we defend our country against 🇷🇺 aggression, information is one of the most powerful weapons at our disposal. We ask journalists from all nations to take care to avoid supporting the 🇷🇺 army by spreading inaccurate information. (2/16)
— Ukrainian Air Force (@KpsZSU) March 31, 2022
For non-tweeters: https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1509619179850240005.html
If they have volunteers lined up or members of the UAF with prior experience with those airframes, sure. If not then no. Either they have volunteer pilots lined up, or they think that if they raise the bar they might get the MiGs instead, or they want to get them in the pipeline and start training on them so that in 6-12 months they can use them to help retake eastern Ukraine in a renewed offensive.
If they have had access to flight simulators for a few years already? And that becomes the question. Where have Ukrainian pilots been trained for the last eight years?Quote:
Is it really feasible that they could learn the F15/F16 platforms in a few weeks like they claim?
You read it wrong.
An Air Force is lobbying for more toys? Well, yea. Of course they want modern fighters. Of course they want no-fly zones.
If anything, their opening hypothesis is incorrect. Air superiority will not win this war. Just as it didn't win any wars for the United States. You have to be able to control the ground and the populace. And the Russians simply do not have the force numbers to do that.
An Air Force is lobbying for more toys? Well, yea. Of course they want modern fighters. Of course they want no-fly zones.
If anything, their opening hypothesis is incorrect. Air superiority will not win this war. Just as it didn't win any wars for the United States. You have to be able to control the ground and the populace. And the Russians simply do not have the force numbers to do that.
I think it´s already evident that #Turkey has closed its airspace for Russian military flights to #Syria. pic.twitter.com/OCo6sULWkC
— Manu Gómez (@GDarkconrad) March 31, 2022
Cell phones in combat are a bad idea. https://t.co/PckoCDGGk7 pic.twitter.com/g7piMaGfrz
— Rob Lee (@RALee85) March 31, 2022
True.Quote:
If anything, their opening hypothesis is incorrect. Air superiority will not win this war. Just as it didn't win any wars for the United States. You have to be able to control the ground and the populace. And the Russians simply do not have the force numbers to do that.
Air superiority just hastens the process of denying them the ground and provides cover for Uke ground troops to reclaim territory and drive the Russians out including the Donbas and Crimea.
I understand the Ukrainian frustration on this subject because they do have a tremendous and rare opportunity to do just that, right now. Russia's neck is exposed as far as conventional warfare is concerned.
Hence the plethora of nuclear threats from Russia.
Learn to fly, absolutely.EastSideAg2002 said:Is it really feasible that they could learn the F15/F16 platforms in a few weeks like they claim?Rossticus said:
Interesting statement from UAF…📍As we defend our country against 🇷🇺 aggression, information is one of the most powerful weapons at our disposal. We ask journalists from all nations to take care to avoid supporting the 🇷🇺 army by spreading inaccurate information. (2/16)
— Ukrainian Air Force (@KpsZSU) March 31, 2022
For non-tweeters: https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1509619179850240005.html
Learn to fight with them, no.
Agree on all points.aggiehawg said:True.Quote:
If anything, their opening hypothesis is incorrect. Air superiority will not win this war. Just as it didn't win any wars for the United States. You have to be able to control the ground and the populace. And the Russians simply do not have the force numbers to do that.
Air superiority just hastens the process of denying them the ground and provides cover for Uke ground troops to reclaim territory and drive the Russians out including the Donbas and Crimea.
I understand the Ukrainian frustration on this subject because they do have a tremendous and rare opportunity to do just that, right now. Russia's neck is exposed as far as conventional warfare is concerned.
Hence the plethora of nuclear threats from Russia.
The MIGS would have allowed the Ukes to double or even triple their sorties. I think I read they were flying 5-10 per day with their limited 50-60 birds. More air power would have them in a stronger position today. And since I'm speculating…maybe just maybe Mariupol would have taken half as much damage as it has to date.
That's a green screen but I don't begrudge Zelensky much because of that alone.
He did run a movie production company before he became President. Has a Wag the Dog feel to it anyway.
He did run a movie production company before he became President. Has a Wag the Dog feel to it anyway.
For security reasons it would probably be unwise to do otherwise. Earlier in the war he was frequently shown in his office and in various locations but after the second attempt on his life they changed their approach.
yeah, I was on the fence about himars but I agree--it's a powerful system and training shouldn't be too huge of an issue. ammunition and maintenance are I think the bigger concerns but probably surmountable https://t.co/erz5kMlJ1D
— Gerry Doyle (@mgerrydoyle) April 1, 2022
Unfortunately I have not been able to follow the southern fronts after the first few days, but now some good news from there too. In linked tweet 'UAF 60th Mechanized Brigade claimed capture of: T-64 tanks, a BMP-2, a BMD-2, + ZU-23-2 anti-aircraft auto-cannon mounted on a MT-LB. https://t.co/w61fKgsZ7B
— Dan (@Danspiun) April 1, 2022
"Policymakers need to grapple with the brutal reality of Russia’s approach if they are to predict how Russian forces might react when confronted with a Ukrainian insurgency armed with advanced weaponry." https://t.co/Zp4LeW9wMJ
— Modern War Institute (@WarInstitute) April 1, 2022
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