***Russian - Ukraine War Tactical and Strategic Updates*** [Warning on OP]

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Rossticus
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2:46p, 3/31/22
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htownag10
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In reply to mickeyrig06sq3 • 2:49p, 3/31/22
AG
mickeyrig06sq3 said:
JFABNRGR said:
Rossticus said:
Nothing new here. There has been two in theatre this whole time typically flying together at least once every 3 days or so, at least publicly and almost always out of England.

Yesterday there was a couple training over the US and probably have warning order to rotate in or supplement.

Probably carrying ALCMs and I would have been fine had they used a few already.
Yup. When we send them within 5 miles of the border accompanied by a fighter escort, that's when it'll be worth a pucker factor.
They typically have fighter escorts with them anyway
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Rossticus
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2:52p, 3/31/22
Russia ginning up more BS.

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Rossticus
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3:05p, 3/31/22
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Rossticus
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3:08p, 3/31/22
You can stuff a lot of goodies into an AN-124 and even more into four.

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tk111
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In reply to txags92 • 3:12p, 3/31/22
AG
txags92 said:
mickeyrig06sq3 said:

That's kind of confusing. Item #1 said they're implementing a draft, but #2 says they're getting rid of military people whose terms of service have expired. That's a weird contradiction for their policy.
That is how their system works. Each conscript group serves for 2 years and they do a new group every 6 months. So for most of their enlisted men, they have at most 2 years of experience, and most of them less than that. Their NCOs are mostly from the conscripts that are in their last 6 months of service, so they have a constant rotation in their leadership. It puts a ton of pressure on the officers and forces them to "lead from the front", which is why you see so many getting killed. That #2 is just releasing the people who have served their 2 years from service.
Isn't this how it worked with our boys in Vietnam? The drafted served a year and then got turned loose?
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txags92
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In reply to tk111 • 4:01p, 3/31/22
AG
tk111 said:
txags92 said:
mickeyrig06sq3 said:

That's kind of confusing. Item #1 said they're implementing a draft, but #2 says they're getting rid of military people whose terms of service have expired. That's a weird contradiction for their policy.
That is how their system works. Each conscript group serves for 2 years and they do a new group every 6 months. So for most of their enlisted men, they have at most 2 years of experience, and most of them less than that. Their NCOs are mostly from the conscripts that are in their last 6 months of service, so they have a constant rotation in their leadership. It puts a ton of pressure on the officers and forces them to "lead from the front", which is why you see so many getting killed. That #2 is just releasing the people who have served their 2 years from service.
Isn't this how it worked with our boys in Vietnam? The drafted served a year and then got turned loose?
I think the draft terms were for 2 years. Russians have shortened theirs to 1 year now, which basically means they do about 5-6 months training and really only effectively serve for 6-7 months tops.
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TRM
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4:17p, 3/31/22
AG
Apparently, 3 out of 4 Mi-8s made it out per Julian Roepcke.

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JFABNRGR
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In reply to TRM • 4:28p, 3/31/22
AG
TRM said:
Apparently, 3 out of 4 Mi-8s made it out per Julian Roepcke.

sad. more graphic pics on reddit. some of the dead were already wearing bandages.

In good news, drone footage over hostomel aiport show area clear of russians.

https://www.reddit.com/r/RussiaUkraineWar2022/comments/tt9x9r/uav_footage_of_hostomel_airport_reportedly_from/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x&context=3
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Rossticus
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4:32p, 3/31/22


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Not a Bot
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4:38p, 3/31/22
AG
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Rossticus
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4:53p, 3/31/22
Interesting statement from UAF…



For non-tweeters: https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1509619179850240005.html
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aggiehawg
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In reply to Rossticus • 5:01p, 3/31/22
AG
That makes me mad. Just giving lip service but not following through on aid to Ukraine is really s***ty.
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Rossticus
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In reply to aggiehawg • 5:07p, 3/31/22
We're in deep enough now that we need to get them whatever it takes to win. Pissing off tens of billions of dollars in aide and equipment, plus the costs of the humanitarian crisis, the resultant upset of global markets only to walk away with an L and a pissed off Russia who has an axe to grind and a newfound strategic gain in Europe would make for an epic fustercluck. Play to win or don't play.
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aggiehawg
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In reply to Rossticus • 5:15p, 3/31/22
AG
Rossticus said:
We're in deep enough now that we need to get them whatever it takes to win. Pissing off tens of billions of dollars in aide and equipment, plus the costs of the humanitarian crisis, the resultant upset of global markets only to walk away with an L and a pissed off Russia who has an axe to grind and a newfound strategic gain in in Europe would make for an epic fustercluck. Play to win or don't play.
Short of boots on the ground or a no fly zone using NATO planes, NATO pilots, flying from NATO bases.

What is irking me is that there are always means to have plausible deniability using other countries as proxies to "sell" the Ukrainians what they need, including planes. CIA used to be pretty damn adept at that. Hell, Charlie Wilson figured it out.
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Rossticus
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In reply to aggiehawg • 5:21p, 3/31/22
aggiehawg said:
Rossticus said:
We're in deep enough now that we need to get them whatever it takes to win. Pissing off tens of billions of dollars in aide and equipment, plus the costs of the humanitarian crisis, the resultant upset of global markets only to walk away with an L and a pissed off Russia who has an axe to grind and a newfound strategic gain in in Europe would make for an epic fustercluck. Play to win or don't play.
Short of boots on the ground or a no fly zone using NATO planes, NATO pilots, flying from NATO bases.

What is irking me is that there are always means to have plausible deniability using other countries as proxies to "sell" the Ukrainians what they need, including planes. CIA used to be pretty damn adept at that. Hell, Charlie Wilson figured it out.


Exactly. There are lots of things yet to take from the Korea, Vietnam, etc playbooks that we're too tepid to employ which we should have rolled out weeks ago.
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RebelE Infantry
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In reply to Rossticus • 5:27p, 3/31/22
AG
Rossticus said:
Interesting statement from UAF…



For non-tweeters: https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1509619179850240005.html


I kind of read this as a mix between "thanks for nothing" and "we're screwed."
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EastSideAg2002
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In reply to Rossticus • 5:33p, 3/31/22
Rossticus said:
Interesting statement from UAF…



For non-tweeters: https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1509619179850240005.html
Is it really feasible that they could learn the F15/F16 platforms in a few weeks like they claim?
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mickeyrig06sq3
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In reply to EastSideAg2002 • 5:38p, 3/31/22
AG
EastSideAg2002 said:
Rossticus said:
Interesting statement from UAF…



For non-tweeters: https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1509619179850240005.html
Is it really feasible that they could learn the F15/F16 platforms in a few weeks like they claim?
Depends on the threshold for "learning", and how many of the bells and whistles we would include in the models that get sent. That leads to the follow-up of what munitions you also send along for the ride. Training on those now comes in to play.
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GAC06
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In reply to EastSideAg2002 • 5:39p, 3/31/22
AG
No not really. Better SAM's are the ticket there. Kind of ridiculous we still haven't gotten them more S-300's
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Rossticus
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In reply to EastSideAg2002 • 5:41p, 3/31/22
EastSideAg2002 said:
Rossticus said:
Interesting statement from UAF…



For non-tweeters: https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1509619179850240005.html
Is it really feasible that they could learn the F15/F16 platforms in a few weeks like they claim?


If they have volunteers lined up or members of the UAF with prior experience with those airframes, sure. If not then no. Either they have volunteer pilots lined up, or they think that if they raise the bar they might get the MiGs instead, or they want to get them in the pipeline and start training on them so that in 6-12 months they can use them to help retake eastern Ukraine in a renewed offensive.
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aggiehawg
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In reply to EastSideAg2002 • 5:43p, 3/31/22
AG
Quote:
Is it really feasible that they could learn the F15/F16 platforms in a few weeks like they claim?
If they have had access to flight simulators for a few years already? And that becomes the question. Where have Ukrainian pilots been trained for the last eight years?
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Keegan99
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In reply to RebelE Infantry • 5:43p, 3/31/22
AG
You read it wrong.

An Air Force is lobbying for more toys? Well, yea. Of course they want modern fighters. Of course they want no-fly zones.

If anything, their opening hypothesis is incorrect. Air superiority will not win this war. Just as it didn't win any wars for the United States. You have to be able to control the ground and the populace. And the Russians simply do not have the force numbers to do that.
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Rossticus
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6:04p, 3/31/22
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MeatDr
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6:25p, 3/31/22
AG
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aggiehawg
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In reply to Keegan99 • 6:30p, 3/31/22
AG
Quote:
If anything, their opening hypothesis is incorrect. Air superiority will not win this war. Just as it didn't win any wars for the United States. You have to be able to control the ground and the populace. And the Russians simply do not have the force numbers to do that.
True.

Air superiority just hastens the process of denying them the ground and provides cover for Uke ground troops to reclaim territory and drive the Russians out including the Donbas and Crimea.

I understand the Ukrainian frustration on this subject because they do have a tremendous and rare opportunity to do just that, right now. Russia's neck is exposed as far as conventional warfare is concerned.

Hence the plethora of nuclear threats from Russia.
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EMY92
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In reply to EastSideAg2002 • 6:36p, 3/31/22
AG
EastSideAg2002 said:
Rossticus said:
Interesting statement from UAF…



For non-tweeters: https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1509619179850240005.html
Is it really feasible that they could learn the F15/F16 platforms in a few weeks like they claim?
Learn to fly, absolutely.

Learn to fight with them, no.
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AGS-R-TUFF
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In reply to aggiehawg • 6:45p, 3/31/22
AG
aggiehawg said:
Quote:
If anything, their opening hypothesis is incorrect. Air superiority will not win this war. Just as it didn't win any wars for the United States. You have to be able to control the ground and the populace. And the Russians simply do not have the force numbers to do that.
True.

Air superiority just hastens the process of denying them the ground and provides cover for Uke ground troops to reclaim territory and drive the Russians out including the Donbas and Crimea.

I understand the Ukrainian frustration on this subject because they do have a tremendous and rare opportunity to do just that, right now. Russia's neck is exposed as far as conventional warfare is concerned.

Hence the plethora of nuclear threats from Russia.
Agree on all points.

The MIGS would have allowed the Ukes to double or even triple their sorties. I think I read they were flying 5-10 per day with their limited 50-60 birds. More air power would have them in a stronger position today. And since I'm speculating…maybe just maybe Mariupol would have taken half as much damage as it has to date.
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Rossticus
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6:46p, 3/31/22
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aggiehawg
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In reply to Rossticus • 6:55p, 3/31/22
AG
That's a green screen but I don't begrudge Zelensky much because of that alone.

He did run a movie production company before he became President. Has a Wag the Dog feel to it anyway.
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Rossticus
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In reply to aggiehawg • 6:59p, 3/31/22
For security reasons it would probably be unwise to do otherwise. Earlier in the war he was frequently shown in his office and in various locations but after the second attempt on his life they changed their approach.
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ATX_AG_08
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7:03p, 3/31/22
AG
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Rossticus
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7:09p, 3/31/22
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Rossticus
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7:28p, 3/31/22
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Rossticus
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7:41p, 3/31/22
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