***Russian - Ukraine War Tactical and Strategic Updates*** [Warning on OP]

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mickeyrig06sq3
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In reply to JFABNRGR • 10:49a, 3/31/22
AG
JFABNRGR said:
mickeyrig06sq3 said:
JFABNRGR said:
Rossticus said:
Nothing new here. There has been two in theatre this whole time typically flying together at least once every 3 days or so, at least publicly and almost always out of England.

Yesterday there was a couple training over the US and probably have warning order to rotate in or supplement.

Probably carrying ALCMs and I would have been fine had they used a few already.
Yup. When we send them within 5 miles of the border accompanied by a fighter escort, that's when it'll be worth a pucker factor.
Well I think those ALCMs are good for 1500 miles so the B52s only need to make the North Sea, for western most russian targets in UKR and or the Black Sea and we will probably never see the fast movers on any of the flt trackers but I know what your saying. That stand off and precision guidance for a large amount of munitions is pretty awesome coming off a 1950s air frame. Its certainly not something I would want to experience on the receiving end.
At least it'll be quick, it'll just hit your forehead. Russia/China are probably the strategy of "eh, close enough".
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GeorgiAg
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11:02a, 3/31/22
AG
This is crazy. Two guys driving around in Ukraine visit busted tank column. Scream obscenities at Russians and get shot at.

https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/tsy2vn/two_mad_lads_from_ivankiv_casually_drive_through/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x&context=3
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mickeyrig06sq3
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In reply to GeorgiAg • 11:10a, 3/31/22
AG
GeorgiAg said:
This is crazy. Two guys driving around in Ukraine visit busted tank column. Scream obscenities at Russians and get shot at.

https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/tsy2vn/two_mad_lads_from_ivankiv_casually_drive_through/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x&context=3
Ukrainian Defense Force mantra: "Hold my Vodka and watch this sh*t"
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GeorgiAg
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11:24a, 3/31/22
AG
Russians get captured. Being in a war zone, no one gives a crap about hurling LGBTQ insults. They got called f*gg*** about 50 times.

https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/tsj8o8/the_orcs_were_driven_into_the_basement_after/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x&context=3
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txags92
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In reply to mickeyrig06sq3 • 11:25a, 3/31/22
AG
mickeyrig06sq3 said:
Rossticus said:
That's kind of confusing. Item #1 said they're implementing a draft, but #2 says they're getting rid of military people whose terms of service have expired. That's a weird contradiction for their policy.
That is how their system works. Each conscript group serves for 2 years and they do a new group every 6 months. So for most of their enlisted men, they have at most 2 years of experience, and most of them less than that. Their NCOs are mostly from the conscripts that are in their last 6 months of service, so they have a constant rotation in their leadership. It puts a ton of pressure on the officers and forces them to "lead from the front", which is why you see so many getting killed. That #2 is just releasing the people who have served their 2 years from service.
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docb
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In reply to GeorgiAg • 11:43a, 3/31/22
AG
GeorgiAg said:
Russians get captured. Being in a war zone, no one gives a crap about hurling LGBTQ insults. They got called f*gg*** about 50 times.

https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/tsj8o8/the_orcs_were_driven_into_the_basement_after/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x&context=3
Crappy thing is those guys certainly don't look like they want to be there. Putin has directly caused thousands of lives lost in this ordeal. Nothing less than him being taken out is acceptable IMO.
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AgLA06
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In reply to txags92 • 11:59a, 3/31/22
AG
txags92 said:
mickeyrig06sq3 said:
Rossticus said:
That's kind of confusing. Item #1 said they're implementing a draft, but #2 says they're getting rid of military people whose terms of service have expired. That's a weird contradiction for their policy.
That is how their system works. Each conscript group serves for 2 years and they do a new group every 6 months. So for most of their enlisted men, they have at most 2 years of experience, and most of them less than that. Their NCOs are mostly from the conscripts that are in their last 6 months of service, so they have a constant rotation in their leadership. It puts a ton of pressure on the officers and forces them to "lead from the front", which is why you see so many getting killed. That #2 is just releasing the people who have served their 2 years from service.


That makes sense based on what we're seeing. So what percentage of their forces are career military vs conscripts?
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txags92
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In reply to AgLA06 • 12:16p, 3/31/22
AG
AgLA06 said:
txags92 said:
mickeyrig06sq3 said:
Rossticus said:
That's kind of confusing. Item #1 said they're implementing a draft, but #2 says they're getting rid of military people whose terms of service have expired. That's a weird contradiction for their policy.
That is how their system works. Each conscript group serves for 2 years and they do a new group every 6 months. So for most of their enlisted men, they have at most 2 years of experience, and most of them less than that. Their NCOs are mostly from the conscripts that are in their last 6 months of service, so they have a constant rotation in their leadership. It puts a ton of pressure on the officers and forces them to "lead from the front", which is why you see so many getting killed. That #2 is just releasing the people who have served their 2 years from service.


That makes sense based on what we're seeing. So what percentage of their forces are career military vs conscripts?
Well thanks for asking that question. It looks like they recently changed from a 2 year to a 1 year conscription term, and have been trying to build more of a career armed force. They still haven't solved their NCO issues though. According to this source from 2020 (The Best or Worst of Both Worlds? | Center for Strategic and International Studies (csis.org)), which is a pretty good read (albeit wrong on some points based on what we have seen), they had about 260K conscripts and 410k contract soldiers in their active duty forces. No idea what the reserves or Rosgvardia are like.
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mickeyrig06sq3
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In reply to txags92 • 12:17p, 3/31/22
AG
txags92 said:
mickeyrig06sq3 said:
Rossticus said:
That's kind of confusing. Item #1 said they're implementing a draft, but #2 says they're getting rid of military people whose terms of service have expired. That's a weird contradiction for their policy.
That is how their system works. Each conscript group serves for 2 years and they do a new group every 6 months. So for most of their enlisted men, they have at most 2 years of experience, and most of them less than that. Their NCOs are mostly from the conscripts that are in their last 6 months of service, so they have a constant rotation in their leadership. It puts a ton of pressure on the officers and forces them to "lead from the front", which is why you see so many getting killed. That #2 is just releasing the people who have served their 2 years from service.
And here I thought logistics was their worst fubar.
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Rossticus
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12:18p, 3/31/22
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Rossticus
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12:28p, 3/31/22
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Rossticus
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12:29p, 3/31/22
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txags92
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In reply to Rossticus • 12:31p, 3/31/22
AG
Rossticus said:


If this is true…and if the stories are true about russia targeting food warehouses and petroleum storage facilities, it is starting to look like creating a famine might be on the list of russian tactics to apply pressure to Ukrainian negotiators
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docb
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12:37p, 3/31/22
AG


Maybe send them some of these so they can reach out a little further
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aggiehawg
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In reply to Rossticus • 12:40p, 3/31/22
AG
Rossticus said:
Going Sherman on them. Take all of their food sources away. Starve them out. It was an abomination back then and still is.
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Rossticus
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In reply to aggiehawg • 12:46p, 3/31/22
aggiehawg said:
Rossticus said:
Going Sherman on them. Take all of their food sources away. Starve them out. It was an abomination back then and still is.


It's not just them. Russia knows that it'll put immense pressure on Europe to help feed Ukraine and house millions of refugees. This isn't merely an attack on Ukraine. It's a scheme to destabilize Europe. Avoiding more forceful involvement in this from the beginning has likely resulted in greater economic implications for Europe than had they taken an immediate hardline.

Putin is weakening/destabilizing Europe for the near future. If he's able to annex/destroy Ukraine's agricultural and industrial capabilities then that will force the US and Europe to assist them broadly in the long term as well, which will have negative economic consequences. If we allow Russia to make it out of this without suffering total defeat then we'll all likely carry the greater long term burden than Russia, albeit distributed across many countries.

Sanctions will eventually be relaxed but a landlocked, industrially limited, agriculturally stunted Ukraine will remain. Will Europe and the US leave it to wither and eventually be swallowed by Russia or bear the interminable burden of its support because we chose not to assume the risks inherent in ensuring its victory?
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74OA
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12:49p, 3/31/22
AG
Today's SITREP.
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lb3
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In reply to aggiehawg • 1:09p, 3/31/22
AG
aggiehawg said:
Rossticus said:
Going Sherman on them. Take all of their food sources away. Starve them out. It was an abomination back then and still is.
Those Ukranian mine clearing units are legitimate targets.

/Russian bots
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MouthBQ98
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1:27p, 3/31/22
AG
When targeted war doesn't work, the Russians seem to be resorting to total war and attacking civilians and infrastructure to inflict maximum misery.
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wangus12
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In reply to mickeyrig06sq3 • 2:02p, 3/31/22
AG
mickeyrig06sq3 said:
GeorgiAg said:
This is crazy. Two guys driving around in Ukraine visit busted tank column. Scream obscenities at Russians and get shot at.

https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/tsy2vn/two_mad_lads_from_ivankiv_casually_drive_through/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x&context=3
Ukrainian Defense Force mantra: "Hold my Vodka and watch this sh*t"
"If we die, we die!"
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Rossticus
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2:02p, 3/31/22
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Rossticus
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2:06p, 3/31/22
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aggiehawg
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In reply to Rossticus • 2:06p, 3/31/22
AG
LOL. Due to airspace limitations they have to fly west, up through the Baltic Sea and then down past St. Petersburg.
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Waffledynamics
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In reply to Rossticus • 2:11p, 3/31/22
AG
Rossticus said:


Has Ukraine received anti ship missiles as requested? Wish they could take them out in the sea.
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Rossticus
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2:13p, 3/31/22
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Rossticus
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In reply to Waffledynamics • 2:15p, 3/31/22
I wouldn't hold my breath, but we can hope.
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Rossticus
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2:20p, 3/31/22
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aezmvp
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In reply to Waffledynamics • 2:20p, 3/31/22
Waffledynamics said:
Rossticus said:


Has Ukraine received anti ship missiles as requested? Wish they could take them out in the sea.
Again targeting these in the Black Sea that far out is kinda tough. You'd be better served waiting for them to make their approach towards a landing. Also pincer them with drones and anti-ship missiles. Distract and divide their CIWS defense.
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Rossticus
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2:26p, 3/31/22
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74OA
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In reply to aezmvp • 2:30p, 3/31/22
AG
aezmvp said:
Waffledynamics said:
Rossticus said:


Has Ukraine received anti ship missiles as requested? Wish they could take them out in the sea.
Again targeting these in the Black Sea that far out is kinda tough. You'd be better served waiting for them to make their approach towards a landing. Also pincer them with drones and anti-ship missiles. Distract and divide their CIWS defense.
Take a page from the Japanese playbook in WWII and lure them into range of direct artillery fire from the shoreline. There's no countermeasure for that except to suppress the defense and the Russian navy and air force don't have the numbers or firepower for that. Read the ODESSA section.

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Rossticus
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In reply to aezmvp • 2:30p, 3/31/22
Looks like UK will make it happen, assuming they can get them out east in time.

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Rossticus
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2:34p, 3/31/22
Looks like a Steinbeck novel out there…

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aggiehawg
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In reply to Rossticus • 2:34p, 3/31/22
AG
What is Bear Net?
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Rossticus
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In reply to aggiehawg • 2:37p, 3/31/22
Russian strategic bomber (TU-95) com and nav network. When it's active you can expect incoming.
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aggiehawg
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In reply to Rossticus • 2:41p, 3/31/22
AG
Not good.

Thanks.
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