GUERRILLA WARABATTBQ11 said:RogerEnright said:
Too expensive. They lost too much equipment for what they will likely get.
And what did they get? Likely years of beating down the population in the East. There is a real risk that this could become another Afghanistan for them.
It will be worse. The Ukrainians will be far more well equipped and infinitely angrier than the Afghanis. The Russians will be in an area where the insurgency may actually be more well equipped than they are, and armor and helicopters will be death traps. Any puppet government they install is likely to be immediately decapitated. And even if Zelensky asks them to stop, there's a very good chance they won't. There's so much heavy weaponry and ammunition floating around now that anyone could build an IED or open fire on Russian soldiers or civilians with a heavy machine gun to avenge whoever and whatever the Russians have taken. The Russians got greedy and punched a hornets' nest, and they're going to get stung for a long time.
On top of that, as others have mentioned, this has likely already cost them more than Afghanistan in terms of men and equipment, and it's only been 5 weeks. Give it 5 years or even just 5 months and they will question the continued utility of being there. Russia will not be able to hide the casualties and losses like they're trying to do now, either. There will be videos of ambushes and IED's blowing Russian soldiers to pieces that they can't keep off social media, and families of dead soldiers will certainly talk. It will be evident they're losing people every day, no matter how much they try to ignore it on state TV.
***Russian - Ukraine War Tactical and Strategic Updates*** [Warning on OP]
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On those 7 bus loads of doomed radiation poisoned Russian troops:
They didn't know. Ukrainian workers at Chernobyl NPP asked soldiers holding them at gun pt why they were driving & camping in Red Forest, Russians had never heard of 1986 disaster or word "Chernobyl," didn't even know they'd seized a NPP, just told it's "strategic infrastructure"
— Dr Red Bison, PhD πΊπ¦ππΊπ² π½ π₯π π³οΈβπβππ· (@RedBison) March 31, 2022
A thread on why this radiation poisoning story may not be completely true.
This story is going round, but I think it is unlikely that Russian soldiers developed Acute Radiation Syndrome while messing around in the #Chernobyl Exclusion Zone. I'll explain my thinking in a short 𧡠https://t.co/kEHC1P0BVe
— Jeremy Gordon (@jrmygrdn) March 31, 2022
Strange that more Russians soldiers were exposed to radiation poisoning recently than during the initial explosionPJYoung said:
On those 7 bus loads of doomed radiation poisoned Russian troops:They didn't know. Ukrainian workers at Chernobyl NPP asked soldiers holding them at gun pt why they were driving & camping in Red Forest, Russians had never heard of 1986 disaster or word "Chernobyl," didn't even know they'd seized a NPP, just told it's "strategic infrastructure"
— Dr Red Bison, PhD πΊπ¦ππΊπ² π½ π₯π π³οΈβπβππ· (@RedBison) March 31, 2022
Hey everybody, here we go again.
— Mark Nelson (@energybants) March 30, 2022
This story will almost certainly turn out to be bullshit.
When Reactor 4 blew up & burned in 1986, only 134 people got acute radiation sickness.
There is no way to get it now from the landscape or around containment.
Always: wait for @iaeaorg https://t.co/v7ylqioyq8
It's too early to say if the radiation story is BS or true. We need to see some actual data and know what happened on the ground because it's within the realm of possibilities Russian soldiers did something stupid.
Possibly they went poking around a particular location that was particularly contaminated?
Or they're all faking it for a quick ride out of the battle?
Or they're all faking it for a quick ride out of the battle?
I got killed againβΉοΈ pic.twitter.com/FiWE0EO4V1
— James Vasquez (@jmvasquez1974) March 31, 2022
Or⦠they had a little accidental exposure from a tactical nuke in their proximity and are blaming it on Chernobyl
We would have picked that up on a hundred instruments and satellites.BTHOB said:
Or⦠they had a little accidental exposure from a tactical nuke in their proximity and are blaming it on Chernobyl
Being in TexAgs jail changes a manβ¦β¦..no, not really
There are still structures and items scattered throughout the area that are hotspots for radiation. Soldiers could have been camping against one or what not. Who knows.
I'll say after watching Chernobyl- I wouldn't wish severe radiation poisoning on anybody - that suffering is horrific.
No way someone is getting acute radiation sickness. Russian soldiers messing around would likely all get lung cancer years from now from long term exposure from particles breathed into the lungs at most.
Yep makes sense. Maybe a bunch of those soldiers just wanted to get checked out or more likely just wanted an excuse to get the hell out of Ukraine.
Here is a response
Here is a response
While there may not have been Acute Rad Exposure as when the original incident occurred, the soldiers were more than likely potentially exposed to high levels of radioactive materials of which can severely affect the body via burns and damage to internal tissue and organs. 3/
— Sophie ZnS (@SophieZnS) March 31, 2022
More likely is the Uke scientists are getting in their heads about this. Morale is already in the gutter for the RU army, and these guys were the lucky ones that got parked in a radioactive zone by their govtβ¦they just wanted to get the **** out of there.
Whoa, a B-52 circling near Belarus and Kaliningrad thats definitely sending a message. pic.twitter.com/Sp6Ggp60po
— OSINTdefender (@sentdefender) March 31, 2022
That's all fine and well but it doesn't account for kidnapping of citizens, rapes, forced deportation, etc. Methinks this poor guy has been given a line to run with under penalty of consequence.
Incredible testimony on BFMTV from this mayor of Melitopol who was kidnapped for several days by the Russians. He says they had no idea whatβs going on. They told him weβre here to get the Nazis - he said Iβve been in this town 30 years and Iβve never met oneβ¦. then they said pic.twitter.com/T8aL2DjZwH
— Eleanor Beardsley (@ElBeardsley) March 31, 2022
It seems these Russian soldiers truly thought that. This entire war is being fought on propaganda - for false pretenses. Its not only Putin who doesnβt know whatβs going on. This mayor, Ivan Fedorov, said the soldiers were completely unprepared and clueless.
— Eleanor Beardsley (@ElBeardsley) March 31, 2022
The average Russian soldier is very uneducated and basically a redneck from the urals
Nobody with any education from st Pete or Moscow is on the front lines
Nobody with any education from st Pete or Moscow is on the front lines
TRM said:
It's too early to say if the radiation story is BS or true. We need to see some actual data and know what happened on the ground because it's within the realm of possibilities Russian soldiers did something stupid.
Agreed, however considering the looting and pillaging the Russians are doing. One has to wonder if they went someplace they were not suppose to go. I would not be surprised if we hear, " My buddies down south got rugs, jewelry, and cash. All I got was this chunk of graphite. "
So, for lack of anything better to do, they bombed & shelled the city to ruins. It looked good in the reports they sent back to HQ.
— Bill_Beau_Morello (@BeauMorello) March 31, 2022
mike0305 said:
More likely is the Uke scientists are getting in their heads about this. Morale is already in the gutter for the RU army, and these guys were the lucky ones that got parked in a radioactive zone by their govtβ¦they just wanted to get the **** out of there.
Moral so low, Putin opted for the long shot chance of creating radioactive superheroes.
Reference: https://t.co/1iK1yOsm5I
— OSINTdefender (@sentdefender) March 31, 2022
.
Nothing new here. There has been two in theatre this whole time typically flying together at least once every 3 days or so, at least publicly and almost always out of England.Rossticus said:Whoa, a B-52 circling near Belarus and Kaliningrad thats definitely sending a message. pic.twitter.com/Sp6Ggp60po
— OSINTdefender (@sentdefender) March 31, 2022
Yesterday there was a couple training over the US and probably have warning order to rotate in or supplement.
Probably carrying ALCMs and I would have been fine had they used a few already.
To highlight the significance of the past week, here is a gif showing changes compared to a similar map I made last week. All the areas circled in blue are where Ukrainian forces have gained territory, in red shows where Russian forces have.
— Nathan Ruser (@Nrg8000) March 31, 2022
(ignore the changing colour scale) pic.twitter.com/qDNAEx0OMs
For non-tweeters:
https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1509520929084547073.html
mike0305 said:
More likely is the Uke scientists are getting in their heads about this. Morale is already in the gutter for the RU army, and these guys were the lucky ones that got parked in a radioactive zone by their govtβ¦they just wanted to get the **** out of there.
Could also be food poisoning from an expired batch of MREs. But it's likely not any kind of radiation poisoning.
Translation: pic.twitter.com/aueFHuO0mL
— OSINTdefender (@sentdefender) March 31, 2022
Yup. When we send them within 5 miles of the border accompanied by a fighter escort, that's when it'll be worth a pucker factor.JFABNRGR said:Nothing new here. There has been two in theatre this whole time typically flying together at least once every 3 days or so, at least publicly and almost always out of England.Rossticus said:Whoa, a B-52 circling near Belarus and Kaliningrad thats definitely sending a message. pic.twitter.com/Sp6Ggp60po
— OSINTdefender (@sentdefender) March 31, 2022
Yesterday there was a couple training over the US and probably have warning order to rotate in or supplement.
Probably carrying ALCMs and I would have been fine had they used a few already.
From 1st of April Baltics airspace will be protected by 8 F-18 Hornet from πͺπΈ, 5 Saab Gripen from π¨πΏ, 4 Mirage 5F from π«π· & 4 F-16 Fighting Falcon from π§πͺ. pic.twitter.com/UWd0UQeksc
— The RAGE X - Intel (@theragex) March 31, 2022
"We will not give up anything. And we will fight for every meter of our land, for every single person," Zelensky said.
— The Kyiv Independent (@KyivIndependent) March 30, 2022
That's kind of confusing. Item #1 said they're implementing a draft, but #2 says they're getting rid of military people whose terms of service have expired. That's a weird contradiction for their policy.Rossticus said:Translation: pic.twitter.com/aueFHuO0mL
— OSINTdefender (@sentdefender) March 31, 2022
The only people not being forced to renew their contracts are the dead and those too injured to fight. And even some of them may be resigned in order to funnel their salaries to some lucky General. They hold a draft every year, iirc.
Well I think those ALCMs are good for 1500 miles so the B52s only need to make the North Sea, for western most russian targets in UKR and or the Black Sea and we will probably never see the fast movers on any of the flt trackers but I know what your saying. That stand off and precision guidance for a large amount of munitions is pretty awesome coming off a 1950s air frame. Its certainly not something I would want to experience on the receiving end.mickeyrig06sq3 said:Yup. When we send them within 5 miles of the border accompanied by a fighter escort, that's when it'll be worth a pucker factor.JFABNRGR said:Nothing new here. There has been two in theatre this whole time typically flying together at least once every 3 days or so, at least publicly and almost always out of England.Rossticus said:Whoa, a B-52 circling near Belarus and Kaliningrad thats definitely sending a message. pic.twitter.com/Sp6Ggp60po
— OSINTdefender (@sentdefender) March 31, 2022
Yesterday there was a couple training over the US and probably have warning order to rotate in or supplement.
Probably carrying ALCMs and I would have been fine had they used a few already.
Yall might remember in the early days, RealLifeLore had a great video on the brewing conflict.
They just posted a new video on the war. Watching it now, but here it is for yall
They just posted a new video on the war. Watching it now, but here it is for yall
Interesting general info about the war if you're not already aware/familiar. Thread.
For non-tweeters:
https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1509483576039026690.html
"8 years of genocide in Donbas 2014-2022":
— Dietmar Pichler πͺπΊπΊπ¦ (@DietmarPichler1) March 31, 2022
~13.000 people have been killed. ~10.000 of them UA soldiers or Russian/"pro Russian" fighters.
~3000 civilians died
Russian forces shelling Mariupol is not new:
31 civilians killed 2015https://t.co/uEjMFaILkT
For non-tweeters:
https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1509483576039026690.html
NEW: Russia has increased the number of air sorties over Ukraine in the last 24 hours, focusing on Ukraine's two largest cities of Kyiv and Kharkiv, as well as Chernihiv and Donbas: senior U.S. defense official.
— Jack Detsch (@JackDetsch) March 31, 2022
"Kyiv is still very much under threat" from air, the official said
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