***Russian - Ukraine War Tactical and Strategic Updates*** [Warning on OP]

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Rossticus
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In reply to GAC06 • 8:51p, 3/30/22
GAC06 said:
I'm not so sure about that. Ukraine knew where they were massing. A lot of the reason for Russian success in the south is because Ukraine prioritized defending Kiev. Maybe they could have used Belarus as an actual feint for that


Agree with a Belarus and Northeastern Kyiv feint and rocket artillery barrages on the area. Had they focused on the east (and based operations on known doctrine) then, IMO:

1) Logistical failures made manifest in the west would have been significantly mitigated.

2) Entire coastal area potentially taken with greater effectiveness utilizing greater numbers and air/naval support.

3) Dnieper used to strategic benefit to hamper Ukrainian reinforcement and resupply.

No guarantees but they could have leveraged their known advantages over Ukraine and overpowered them while more effectively employing force multipliers. Once you have the east you've effectively seized Ukraine's industrial and agricultural base as well as landlocked them. They'd be crippled.

Watch them either and weaken further, then come back in 3-5 years, finish the job in the west.

Just a general framework for how I'd conceptualize it if I were Pootie.



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Rossticus
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8:57p, 3/30/22
Ukes should have fun lighting up T-64's assuming the Russians can keep them running.

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GAC06
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In reply to Rossticus • 9:01p, 3/30/22
AG
Yeah that all sounds good in hindsight and that's why Russian mouthpieces are now claiming the east was their real objective, but it's pretty clear their real objective was regime change and seizing Kiev. They're doubling down (for now) on the east to claim a win but I'm not sure they would have gone in if they knew they wouldn't get Kiev, regime change, and only wound up depriving Ukraine of utterly devastated cities in the east
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Rossticus
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In reply to GAC06 • 9:04p, 3/30/22
GAC06 said:
Yeah that all sounds good in hindsight and that's why Russian mouthpieces are now claiming the east was their real objective, but it's pretty clear their real objective was regime change and seizing Kiev. They're doubling down (for now) on the east to claim a win but I'm not sure they would have gone in if they knew they wouldn't get Kiev, regime change, and only wound up depriving Ukraine of utterly devastated cities in the east


Oh, I agree. They totally screwed the pooch and now they're backtracking.
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PJYoung
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In reply to RogerEnright • 9:07p, 3/30/22
AG
RogerEnright said:
Too expensive. They lost too much equipment for what they will likely get.

And what did they get? Likely years of beating down the population in the East. There is a real risk that this could become another Afghanistan for them.


In terms of KIA and wounded they are probably approaching the entire Afghanistan campaign #s NOW.
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MeatDr
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9:15p, 3/30/22
AG
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Waffledynamics
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In reply to PA24 • 9:22p, 3/30/22
AG
PA24 said:
Russia is getting their asses kicked and good.

I think it is over with my summer, sue for peace and accept what they had before they invaded.

Putin is a dead man walking.
"The war will be over by Christmas".

A lot can happen. Russia could switch to more competent staff. Ukrainians could lose something big that could cripple them. Russia could lose a major battle and start spiraling out of control. We just don't know.
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agsalaska
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9:31p, 3/30/22
AG
The Lemon guy on CNN has a Ukranian couple on right now that is badass. Got married on day 1 and are most certainly supply line help with some AK training and carrying and probably a little combat. They have done the entire social media thing through the entire war, which is strange to me because I'm older and it would probably be the last thing on my mind.

Good interview, and she is an absolutely gorgeous woman.
The trouble with quotes on the internet is that you never know if they are genuine. -- Abraham Lincoln.



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ABATTBQ11
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In reply to RogerEnright • 9:49p, 3/30/22
AG
RogerEnright said:
Too expensive. They lost too much equipment for what they will likely get.

And what did they get? Likely years of beating down the population in the East. There is a real risk that this could become another Afghanistan for them.



It will be worse. The Ukrainians will be far more well equipped and infinitely angrier than the Afghanis. The Russians will be in an area where the insurgency may actually be more well equipped than they are, and armor and helicopters will be death traps. Any puppet government they install is likely to be immediately decapitated. And even if Zelensky asks them to stop, there's a very good chance they won't. There's so much heavy weaponry and ammunition floating around now that anyone could build an IED or open fire on Russian soldiers or civilians with a heavy machine gun to avenge whoever and whatever the Russians have taken. The Russians got greedy and punched a hornets' nest, and they're going to get stung for a long time.

On top of that, as others have mentioned, this has likely already cost them more than Afghanistan in terms of men and equipment, and it's only been 5 weeks. Give it 5 years or even just 5 months and they will question the continued utility of being there. Russia will not be able to hide the casualties and losses like they're trying to do now, either. There will be videos of ambushes and IED's blowing Russian soldiers to pieces that they can't keep off social media, and families of dead soldiers will certainly talk. It will be evident they're losing people every day, no matter how much they try to ignore it on state TV.
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flakrat
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9:53p, 3/30/22
AG
Militarily (inventory), Russia could end up like a 3rd world country if they keep this up. Maybe the Chinese annex Siberia when this is all over (although the nuke threat might convince them not to).
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rgag12
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In reply to Waffledynamics • 9:57p, 3/30/22
AG
Waffledynamics said:
PA24 said:
Russia is getting their asses kicked and good.

I think it is over with my summer, sue for peace and accept what they had before they invaded.

Putin is a dead man walking.
"The war will be over by Christmas".

A lot can happen. Russia could switch to more competent staff. Ukrainians could lose something big that could cripple them. Russia could lose a major battle and start spiraling out of control. We just don't know.


It's crazy to think that this war is only a little over ONE month old. If you look at wars throughout history the shortest last at least several months and a lot span over years. In many of them the momentum shifts several times before a climatic event turns the tides. I'm not sure we have seen it here yet.

I personally think Russia has realized it's colossal mistake in that they were pushing its armies on too many axis' of attack and its poor logistics couldn't supply all of the axis' for a prolonged amount of time. IMO the past week or two they've started preparing to focus on one or two fronts in the hopes of securing the Donbas. We'll see a major offensive kick-off at some point in the coming weeks/months, and the big question will be if the Russian's can implement and execute the lessons they should've learned from their abysmal performance in the first phase of the war.

Judging by their past performance I'd say no, but again history is full of examples were a seemingly hapless combatant inexplicably turns it around. Either way, I think once the result of the second offensive is apparent will we then see a peace be hammered out. I don't think the Ukes have enough firepower to risk a major counter-offensive that will force a peace.

Edit: Dang auto-correct
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Charpie
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10:00p, 3/30/22
AG
I haven't said this for a while on this thread. I've been in meetings downtown and hardly have had time to hop on here to thank each of y'all for your contributing to this thread. It's super informative and full of great insight. Y'all are the best. So thank you again!
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ATX_AG_08
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10:04p, 3/30/22
AG
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RogerEnright
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In reply to rgag12 • 10:04p, 3/30/22
I agree.

Also, one of Russia's military strengths is a culture that fine with using its military as cannon fodder and fighting a battle of attrition. Although it could be used against them.

We will see.

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Rossticus
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10:23p, 3/30/22
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Rossticus
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10:24p, 3/30/22






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Rossticus
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10:27p, 3/30/22
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wangus12
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In reply to Waffledynamics • 10:45p, 3/30/22
AG
Waffledynamics said:
PA24 said:
Russia is getting their asses kicked and good.

I think it is over with my summer, sue for peace and accept what they had before they invaded.

Putin is a dead man walking.
"The war will be over by Christmas".

A lot can happen. Russia could switch to more competent staff. Ukrainians could lose something big that could cripple them. Russia could lose a major battle and start spiraling out of control. We just don't know.


It's a big ask and if they do find competent leaders, they'll likely be identified and targeted. Ukes have proven to be competent at taking leadership out
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FriscoKid
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In reply to RogerEnright • 11:00p, 3/30/22
AG
RogerEnright said:
Too expensive. They lost too much equipment for what they will likely get.

And what did they get? Likely years of beating down the population in the East. There is a real risk that this could become another Afghanistan for them.


They didn't have the entire world against them in Afghanistan . This is much worse for them.
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TXAggie2011
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In reply to Rossticus • 11:33p, 3/30/22
AG
Rossticus said:
Waffledynamics said:
Rossticus said:
Note the progress on bisecting Russia's land bridge in the southeast. May partially explain Russian redeployment. Hopefully the Ukes can get additional forces there in time to maintain operational effectiveness.

That seems very risky, essentially putting Russians in two opposite directions from the Ukrainian forces. Hopefully it doesn't result in them getting encircled.
Based on this map, the risk of encirclement MAY not be as significant as it would appear in the previous map, depending on the numbers and capabilities of the respective forces. Hard to say for sure without more info.

If the Russians really do more fully collapse in the Sumy area, Ukrainian forces in that area presumably can be repositioned to start applying additional pressure on Kharkiv as well as those long supply lines supporting efforts around Izium.

Or at least one would hope
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Rossticus
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11:41p, 3/30/22
More Belarusians refusing to be Russian puppets.

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Rossticus
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12:02a, 3/31/22
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Rossticus
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12:07a, 3/31/22
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Waffledynamics
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In reply to Rossticus • 12:24a, 3/31/22
AG
Rossticus said:




Can you unroll it for those of us who don't Tweet?
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Rossticus
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In reply to Waffledynamics • 12:26a, 3/31/22
Nothing to unroll for those. All singular tweets.
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Waffledynamics
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In reply to Rossticus • 12:28a, 3/31/22
AG
Rossticus said:
Nothing to unroll for those. All singular tweets.
Got it. That last one mentioned "Good thread" so it seemed like there was a thread there. I kept hitting the sign-up wall.

As unlikely as it is, do we have numbers of the Uke soldiers in Mariupol? Those people are braver than I ever will be. I cannot imagine how they are living, their resolve, and the sheer amount of ammo they must have.
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Rossticus
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In reply to Waffledynamics • 12:34a, 3/31/22
Waffledynamics said:
Rossticus said:
Nothing to unroll for those. All singular tweets.
Got it. That last one mentioned "Good thread" so it seemed like there was a thread there. I kept hitting the sign-up wall.

As unlikely as it is, do we have numbers of the Uke soldiers in Mariupol? Those people are braver than I ever will be. I cannot imagine how they are living, their resolve, and the sheer amount of ammo they must have.


Not much else but here you go:

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1509255092385587202.html

No indication as to remaining Uke forces. Likely won't know anything definitive until that number reaches 0.
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ATX_AG_08
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1:07a, 3/31/22
AG
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Rossticus
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1:22a, 3/31/22
Russian "liberators".

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Rossticus
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1:31a, 3/31/22
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Rossticus
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2:24a, 3/31/22
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Rossticus
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2:51a, 3/31/22
Someone screwed up and said the quiet part out loud. This is why allowing Russia to either negotiate for strategic gains or fall back and declare a ceasefire/halt to hostilities while still occupying territory would be a monumental mistake and lead us all right back down this same path, if not a worse one in the future.

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MeatDr
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2:54a, 3/31/22
AG
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MeatDr
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3:02a, 3/31/22
AG
A little early for celebrating, but they've earned a drink!
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Not a Bot
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4:37a, 3/31/22
AG
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