***Russian - Ukraine War Tactical and Strategic Updates*** [Warning on OP]

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ABATTBQ11
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In reply to Waffledynamics • 7:18p, 3/23/22
AG
Waffledynamics said:
Rosstafari said:
Why would Ukraine ever agree to cut any of their military? They're literally in the middle of fighting off an invasion. Russia cannot seriously believe that's going to happen, and so it has to be a negotiating tactic.


And how could they ever farm again?
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OwnWorstEnemy
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7:22p, 3/23/22


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74OA
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7:38p, 3/23/22
AG
Russia has already lost.

Even if it can somehow prevail militarily in the short term, it faces the most well armed insurgency in history.

"What's worse is what awaits them if they succeed in conquering Ukraine's territory an insurgency the likes of which we have never seen. It will be one funded by the richest nations on earth and run by hardened fighters in a country absolutely awash with advanced anti-armor and anti-aircraft weaponry."

INEVITABLE
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YouBet
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In reply to 74OA • 7:46p, 3/23/22
AG
74OA said:
Russia has already lost.

Even if it can somehow prevail militarily in the short term, it faces the most well armed insurgency in history.

"What's worse is what awaits them if they succeed in conquering Ukraine's territory an insurgency the likes of which we have never seen. It will be one funded by the richest nations on earth and run by hardened fighters in a country absolutely awash with advanced anti-armor and anti-aircraft weaponry."

INEVITABLE
Yep. Obviously, Putin can't see this but he's better off pulling out now vs later. He will decimate the male population of his country if he sticks with this. Ironically, one of the reasons he went after Ukraine was to bolster his resources and population.

And now he's doing the opposite.
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Jock 07
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In reply to MeatDr • 7:51p, 3/23/22
AG
MeatDr said:
Some follow up on yesterday's good news!

This is a big ****ing deal.
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ABATTBQ11
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In reply to 74OA • 7:52p, 3/23/22
AG
It'll be Afghanistan, but so much worse
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fka ftc
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7:56p, 3/23/22
Though the insurgency may have cool weapons, the disease and starvation will drive anyone wanting to continue life to leave the country.

With other "insurgencies" they were accustomed to no power, running water, killing goats for food, living in tents and caves. They also had a religious basis to their defense of their territory and a much longer history of being their own "nation".

No matter how much you want to believe in the Ghost of Kyiv and Snake Island, the will to stick this out and battle to the last bullet may not be as strong as being propagated by the media and interwebs..

Heck, these guys are fighting folks who 35 years ago where their fellow countrymen.
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74OA
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In reply to YouBet • 7:59p, 3/23/22
AG
YouBet said:
74OA said:
Russia has already lost.

Even if it can somehow prevail militarily in the short term, it faces the most well armed insurgency in history.

"What's worse is what awaits them if they succeed in conquering Ukraine's territory an insurgency the likes of which we have never seen. It will be one funded by the richest nations on earth and run by hardened fighters in a country absolutely awash with advanced anti-armor and anti-aircraft weaponry."

INEVITABLE
Yep. Obviously, Putin can't see this but he's better off pulling out now vs later. He will decimate the male population of his country if he sticks with this. Ironically, one of the reasons he went after Ukraine was to bolster his resources and population.

And now he's doing the opposite.
NATO is more forward deployed.

Europe is far more united.

Ukraine is unconquered.

Russia is headed to economic devastation.

Putin is achieving the exact opposite of everything he wanted.
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YouBet
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In reply to 74OA • 8:01p, 3/23/22
AG
74OA said:
YouBet said:
74OA said:
Russia has already lost.

Even if it can somehow prevail militarily in the short term, it faces the most well armed insurgency in history.

"What's worse is what awaits them if they succeed in conquering Ukraine's territory an insurgency the likes of which we have never seen. It will be one funded by the richest nations on earth and run by hardened fighters in a country absolutely awash with advanced anti-armor and anti-aircraft weaponry."

INEVITABLE
Yep. Obviously, Putin can't see this but he's better off pulling out now vs later. He will decimate the male population of his country if he sticks with this. Ironically, one of the reasons he went after Ukraine was to bolster his resources and population.

And now he's doing the opposite.
NATO is more forward deployed.

Europe is far more united.

Ukraine is unconquered.

Russia is headed to economic devastation.

Putin is achieving the exact opposite of everything he wanted.
Arguably the worst leadership failure of all time considering scope and timing of the negative outcomes.
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Dorm 15
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In reply to fka ftc • 8:01p, 3/23/22
AG
fka ftc said:


Heck, these guys are fighting folks who 35 years ago where their fellow countrymen.
Isn't the other side doing the same thing?
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fka ftc
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8:02p, 3/23/22
Putin also has been training his "little army" for at least a decade. Boys and girls go to combat school growing up. Believe the number is over 100k+ are trained.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2588013/Putins-tiny-army-Russian-child-soldiers-trained-battle-tactics-weapons-hand-hand-combat-repel-enemy-Motherland.html
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fka ftc
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In reply to Dorm 15 • 8:03p, 3/23/22
Dorm 15 said:
fka ftc said:


Heck, these guys are fighting folks who 35 years ago where their fellow countrymen.
Isn't the other side doing the same thing?
Yes, and it has been noted that its a huge hit to Russian troop morale.
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Spinnaker96
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8:08p, 3/23/22
AG


This seems like a considerably important development
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Fitch
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8:10p, 3/23/22
AG
Sorry if already posted.



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OwnWorstEnemy
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In reply to fka ftc • 8:11p, 3/23/22
fka ftc said:
Dorm 15 said:
fka ftc said:


Heck, these guys are fighting folks who 35 years ago where their fellow countrymen.
Isn't the other side doing the same thing?
Yes, and it has been noted that its a huge hit to Russian troop morale.


Except for a singular important point that you're missing. One side is fighting for their freedom, continued independence, and very existence. That tends to impart willpower and resolve to a people.
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fka ftc
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In reply to OwnWorstEnemy • 8:22p, 3/23/22
OwnWorstEnemy said:
fka ftc said:
Dorm 15 said:
fka ftc said:


Heck, these guys are fighting folks who 35 years ago where their fellow countrymen.
Isn't the other side doing the same thing?
Yes, and it has been noted that its a huge hit to Russian troop morale.


Except for a singular important point that you're missing. One side is fighting for their freedom, continued independence, and very existence. That tends to impart willpower and resolve to a people.
No, not missing a thing. Its core the point I am making. Freedom, independence and existence are much more of a fluid thing for Eastern Europe.

I am suspect their "love of country" is as strong as it is being made out to be. Thats not in defense of Russia, just an observation of history for that area.

Edited: The Confederacy was fighting for the bolded items and yet did not fight until the last bullet. At some point, their cause was lost and it was time to make painful amends.
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mickeyrig06sq3
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In reply to Fitch • 8:33p, 3/23/22
AG
Fitch said:
Sorry if already posted.




Are they saying they actually are entering Belarus, or just headed to guard the border?
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RogerEnright
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In reply to OwnWorstEnemy • 8:33p, 3/23/22
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OwnWorstEnemy
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In reply to fka ftc • 8:34p, 3/23/22
Gonna flatly disagree with you. Unequivocally.
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Old Army Ghost
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In reply to fka ftc • 8:42p, 3/23/22
i dont know they have proven your russian propaganda wrong the entire time
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Agsuffering@bulaw
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In reply to fka ftc • 8:50p, 3/23/22
Grant offered the confederacy relatively generous terms considering the circumstances.

The Ukrainians fighters and leaders know they would get sent to the gulag and their families would become second class citizens in their own country, or have to live as refugees in the west. They are on death ground.
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Waffledynamics
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In reply to Agsuffering@bulaw • 9:04p, 3/23/22
AG
Agsuffering@bulaw said:
Grant offered the confederacy relatively generous terms considering the circumstances.

The Ukrainians fighters and leaders know they would get sent to the gulag and their families would become second class citizens in their own country, or have to live as refugees in the west. They are on death ground.
This is why you see the refusal to surrender Mariupol. There is zero upside for Ukrainians to surrender. None. You might as well go down fighting. Somehow, Russia doesn't seem to understand this and thinks they can break the will of the Ukrainians. To what end does that work? There's no mercy strategy to it. It's just a slow, agonizing death or a quicker one with a chance at victory and survival. This is one of the broader reasons I don't see Russia winning unless they slaughter every last defender with WMDs, and even then they will be even more of a pariah than they already are (and that's saying something).

Imagine being a smaller country in Russia's sphere of influence after that. Do you really want to be their friend?
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ABATTBQ11
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In reply to fka ftc • 9:05p, 3/23/22
AG
Keep telling yourself that, Ivan. This thing was supposed to be over 3 weeks ago, but it looks like the old lady with the sunflower seeds was right: all those dead Russian bodies are going to fertilize the Ukrainian countryside for years to come.
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fullback44
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9:27p, 3/23/22
AG
Anyone have the link to today's tactical update from the army dude from Texas ?
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htownag10
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In reply to mickeyrig06sq3 • 9:36p, 3/23/22
AG
They're just moving around. Don't over think it.
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aggie93
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9:40p, 3/23/22
AG
Absolutely fantastic podcast interview with Peter Zeihan on what is really going on with Ukraine and the chips that are falling, short and longterm.

Jordan Harbinger Podcast with Zeihan

Some of the discussion points:

Why this is Russia's last war and why they need to go now
Why Russia will eventually win but at a tremendous cost
Why NATO wants to keep Russia bottled up in Ukraine so they don't move on to the next target which is clearly the plan
Why Putin is not going to be deposed
The consequences of Russia not having success has different consequences, most of which people aren't considering yet
Russia as a potential failed State and how there is no succession plan for Putin and a frightening lack of leadership when he is gone.
How all of this ties in with China, Xi, and Taiwan and not in the way most people think.
"The most terrifying words in the English language are: I'm from the government and I'm here to help."

Ronald Reagan
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AgBank
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In reply to fka ftc • 9:40p, 3/23/22
AG
fka ftc said:



I am suspect their "love of country" is as strong as it is being made out to be. Thats not in defense of Russia, just an observation of history for that area.
While "country" may be nascent for them. I am sure the subjugation of Soviet rule and all that went with it (Holodomor famine) creates a tribal "us against them" split with Mother Russia.


As a side note, I recently read that the Ukrainian Famine (per capita) was the worse than the potato famine,Great Chinese Famine (cultural revolution) or other famines in recent history. It is also believed to be partially Russian subjugation of Ukraine.
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Waffledynamics
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9:47p, 3/23/22
AG
From CNN: https://archive.ph/QXN9T

Quote:
Russia destroys Chernobyl radiation monitoring lab, says Ukraine
Quote:
Russian forces have looted and destroyed a laboratory near the abandoned Chernobyl nuclear power plant that was used to monitor radioactive waste, the Ukrainian government said Wednesday.
Prelude to something big or ignorant soldier idiocy?
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Rustys-Beef-o-Reeno
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In reply to Waffledynamics • 9:55p, 3/23/22
AG
Waffledynamics said:
From CNN: https://archive.ph/QXN9T

Quote:
Russia destroys Chernobyl radiation monitoring lab, says Ukraine
Quote:
Russian forces have looted and destroyed a laboratory near the abandoned Chernobyl nuclear power plant that was used to monitor radioactive waste, the Ukrainian government said Wednesday.
Prelude to something big or ignorant soldier idiocy?


I'm assuming some ignorant soldier from the Russian step.

No matter where or how small a nuke russia sets off, we will know about it 30 seconds later
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ATX_AG_08
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9:57p, 3/23/22
AG
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FIDO95
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10:03p, 3/23/22
AG


I once heard someone asking an officer, Vietnam vet how it was that the US with all its tanks, guns, and planes couldn't defeat the any enemy fighting with only pitchforks. He responded by stating that the premise of the question is incorrect. Then real question is, "How can you with all your tanks, guns, and planes beat an enemy WILLING to fight you with only pitchforks. The Russians are learning that lesson in Ukraine... Farmers Fight!!
No material on this site is intended to be a substitute for professional medical advice, diagnosis or treatment. See full Medical Disclaimer.
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Waffledynamics
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In reply to FIDO95 • 10:12p, 3/23/22
AG
FIDO95 said:


I once heard someone asking an officer, Vietnam vet how it was that the US with all its tanks, guns, and planes couldn't defeat the any enemy fighting with only pitchforks. He responded by stating that the premise of the question is incorrect. Then real question is, "How can you with all your tanks, guns, and planes beat an enemy WILLING to fight you with only pitchforks. The Russians are learning that lesson in Ukraine... Farmers Fight!!
That's some guts right there. How Russia expects to tame a populace that does not care about a literal gun pointed at their faces is beyond me. What the hell were they thinking?
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TheCougarHunter
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In reply to Waffledynamics • 10:14p, 3/23/22
AG
Waffledynamics said:
FIDO95 said:


I once heard someone asking an officer, Vietnam vet how it was that the US with all its tanks, guns, and planes couldn't defeat the any enemy fighting with only pitchforks. He responded by stating that the premise of the question is incorrect. Then real question is, "How can you with all your tanks, guns, and planes beat an enemy WILLING to fight you with only pitchforks. The Russians are learning that lesson in Ukraine... Farmers Fight!!
That's some guts right there. How Russia expects to tame a populace that does not care about a literal gun pointed at their faces is beyond me. What the hell were they thinking?
Well they either have brass balls, or balls of steel.
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Big Al 1992
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In reply to FIDO95 • 10:18p, 3/23/22
AG
Can't underestimate what these little hand held devices have done for war. Other than the obvious information gathering and social media aspects, without cameras on everyone all the time with easily transmitted pictures, whose to say all of the scenes of Ukes standing up to armed Russian soldiers wouldn't have ended in a bloody massacre within seconds, with no witnesses. Both sides know they are on camera - one side experiences some sort of moral check and the other side experiences a boost of courage with the power these images can relay.
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YouBet
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In reply to Waffledynamics • 10:20p, 3/23/22
AG
Waffledynamics said:
FIDO95 said:


I once heard someone asking an officer, Vietnam vet how it was that the US with all its tanks, guns, and planes couldn't defeat the any enemy fighting with only pitchforks. He responded by stating that the premise of the question is incorrect. Then real question is, "How can you with all your tanks, guns, and planes beat an enemy WILLING to fight you with only pitchforks. The Russians are learning that lesson in Ukraine... Farmers Fight!!
That's some guts right there. How Russia expects to tame a populace that does not care about a literal gun pointed at their faces is beyond me. What the hell were they thinking?


That's just it....they aren't allowed to think!!!
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