Exactly why Russian mothers should be picking up their sons' dead bodies.
***Russian - Ukraine War Tactical and Strategic Updates*** [Warning on OP]
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aggiehawg said:LinkQuote:
Nearly a month into the fighting, one of the biggest surprises of the war in Ukraine is Russia's failure to defeat the Ukrainian Air Force. Military analysts had expected Russian forces to quickly destroy or paralyze Ukraine's air defenses and military aircraft, yet neither have happened. Instead, Top Gun-style aerial dogfights, rare in modern warfare, are now raging above the country.
"Every time when I fly, it's for a real fight," said Andriy, who is 25 and has flown 10 missions in the war. "In every fight with Russian jets, there is no equality. They always have five times more" planes in the air.
Dave Deptula, a senior scholar at the U.S. Air Force Academy and the principal attack planner for the Desert Storm air campaign in Iraq, said the impressive performance of the Ukrainian pilots had helped counter their disadvantages in numbers. He said Ukraine now has roughly 55 operational fighter jets, a number that is dwindling from shoot-downs and mechanical failures, as Ukrainian pilots are "stressing them to max performance."…
"I had situations when I was approaching a Russian plane to a close enough distance to target and fire," he said. "I could already detect it but was waiting for my missile to lock on while at the same time from the ground they tell me that a missile was fired at me already."
He said he maneuvered his jet through a series of extreme banks, dives and climbs in order to exhaust the fuel supplies of the missiles coming after him. "The time I have to save myself depends on how far away the missile was fired at me and what kind of missile," he said.
Still, he said in an interview on a clear, sunny day, "I can still feel a huge rush of adrenaline in my body because every flight is a fight."
Good on them.
Talk about nerves of steel.
There are in fact two things, science and opinion; the former begets knowledge, the later ignorance. Hippocrates
⚡️Ukrainian forces shoot down Russian plane bombing the city.
— The Kyiv Independent (@KyivIndependent) March 22, 2022
The plane was taken down by Ukrainian military at 4:45 p.m. on March 22, Mariupol City Council reports.
Rosstafari said:
Let's GOOOOOOO!NEW: U.S. has indications that Ukraine is now "able and willing" to take back territory overtaken by the Russian military: senior U.S. defense official
— Jack Detsch (@JackDetsch) March 22, 2022
Ukraine's military is now trying to push the Russians out of Izyum, in East Ukraine, and has held Mykolaiv against 🇷🇺 attack.
Across the whole country? Somehow I'm not convinced. Russia doesn't seem to be too weak in the South in particular. I've also seen it mentioned here that casualties need to be... what, 1:5 in Ukraine's favor to successfully repel? Are we really at that point?
Russian Fuel, Ammo, and supply (medical, parts, etc) trucks are all the same design.
— Mark Hertling (@MarkHertling) March 21, 2022
And from what I saw on exercises, RU troops pack as much as they can in each truck, sometimes mixing cargo.
Not good for crew survivability, if the truck is hit. 18/
Quote:Russia should probably worry less about replacing tanks than replacing the soldiers equipped to operate them. Ret. Gen. Mark Hertling, a tank expert, explained yesterday that Russian tanks are death traps for their crews when they come under attack. He saw the interior of a Russian tank in 1994, a new model at the time which the country was proud of, and was amazed at the lack of precautions taken to increase the likelihood of survival if hit. And tanks aren't the only Russian vehicles with that problem:Quote:
Western allies, including the United States and the European Union, have ordered a complete halt to the export of certain components like microchips to Russia as part of an escalation package of sanctions.
So-called dual-use goods have been banned, since they can be employed for both military as well as civilian applications.
"Our aim is to reduce the Kremlin's capacity to wage war on its neighbor," EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen explained earlier this month.
It may be working. Halting the manufacture and repair of T-72B3s, as well as more advanced but less numerous T-80s and T-90s, could hobble Russia's efforts to continue its advance across war-torn Ukraine.
Via Hot AirQuote:
Elsewhere in the post, the Ukrainians specify that it's "foreign-made components" in particular that the Russians are reportedly lacking. That called to mind Putin's disastrous decision last week to nationalize the assets of western companies that have suddenly pulled out of Russia. Not only was that foolish, discouraging western businesses from returning to the country once sanctions are lifted, but those assets will soon be useless. Where is Russia going to get the spare parts needed to operate the passenger jets they've seized, for instance?
It appears that Russia is currently stretched thin West of Kyiv, Southeast of Kharkiv, and NorthWest of Kherson and are ripe for a counterattack in those areas. It appears that Russia has gone all in on Mariupol by moving their best solders there versus Kyiv. The longer Mariupol holds out, the more likely for Ukraine territorial gains.Waffledynamics said:Rosstafari said:
Let's GOOOOOOO!NEW: U.S. has indications that Ukraine is now "able and willing" to take back territory overtaken by the Russian military: senior U.S. defense official
— Jack Detsch (@JackDetsch) March 22, 2022
Ukraine's military is now trying to push the Russians out of Izyum, in East Ukraine, and has held Mykolaiv against 🇷🇺 attack.
Across the whole country? Somehow I'm not convinced. Russia doesn't seem to be too weak in the South in particular. I've also seen it mentioned here that casualties need to be... what, 1:5 in Ukraine's favor to successfully repel? Are we really at that point?
🇧🇾The first attack echelon of Belarusian armed forces in the amount of approximately 5000 troops is already formed and lined up along Ukraine's border, brigadier general Victor Yagunov of the intelligence community says
— The RAGE X - Conflict News - ❌ (@theragex) March 22, 2022
Oooops. Rooskies lost something important. Ukes will look after it for them.
Now this one is probably going to find its way to some very interested engineers. https://t.co/0CfuGzacwb
— OSINTtechnical (@Osinttechnical) March 22, 2022
Russians parked a fresh batch of helis at the Chernobaivka airfield near #Kherson, and Ukr Army says they have destroyed/damaged (most of) these as well with a fresh airstrike yesterday.
— Gregor Martin (@Guderian_Xaba) March 22, 2022
Quote:
Elsewhere in the post, the Ukrainians specify that it's "foreign-made components" in particular that the Russians are reportedly lacking. That called to mind Putin's disastrous decision last week to nationalize the assets of western companies that have suddenly pulled out of Russia. Not only was that foolish, discouraging western businesses from returning to the country once sanctions are lifted, but those assets will soon be useless. Where is Russia going to get the spare parts needed to operate the passenger jets they've seized, for instance?
These commercial planes are going to be worthless in no time. No documentation of installation of parts that are also most likely undocumented are poison to the value of things like this.
Best bet is that they'll end up CANNing what they've seized in order to obtain spares and after that runs out they're basically in the same boat that Iran is in.
edit: wouldn't surprise me if they're already starting to run into this for their military aircraft. They've got to be experiencing component shortages so good luck making replacements for what wears out.
Russia will have to get the parts from third parties that who knows the quality and the parts will be more expensive.
This does lend to the question of the quality of China's equipment. On the surface it appears to be modern with a lot of the same technology the USA has. But when they actually start fighting with it you find out they took shortcuts in design or materials. We had 20 years of fighting in many different environments plus a land based war against the third largest military in the world at the time and cut through them like butter.
Hope our officers are watching this war to see what a battle with Russia or China would be like. They don't care about collateral damage, heck they actually use it as part as their strategy to wear down the opponent. Neither country plays the zero loss battle that we do, they will keep putting soldiers on the front as long as they win the battle. If Russia is really going to put minors on the front line I think they will start taking losses at an increased rate. The Ukes know how to fight dirty and a 15-17 year old will be scared out of their mind.
Russia putting minors on the front lines will all but kill their economy for generations. If they admitted to roughly 10k dead you can go on top of that and say another 20k minimum that are no longer battle ready. Russia already doesn't have the workers to handle their current economy, now for sure they won't. They have to take Ukraine and all of its resources to stay afloat, and it is not looking good for them.
This does lend to the question of the quality of China's equipment. On the surface it appears to be modern with a lot of the same technology the USA has. But when they actually start fighting with it you find out they took shortcuts in design or materials. We had 20 years of fighting in many different environments plus a land based war against the third largest military in the world at the time and cut through them like butter.
Hope our officers are watching this war to see what a battle with Russia or China would be like. They don't care about collateral damage, heck they actually use it as part as their strategy to wear down the opponent. Neither country plays the zero loss battle that we do, they will keep putting soldiers on the front as long as they win the battle. If Russia is really going to put minors on the front line I think they will start taking losses at an increased rate. The Ukes know how to fight dirty and a 15-17 year old will be scared out of their mind.
Russia putting minors on the front lines will all but kill their economy for generations. If they admitted to roughly 10k dead you can go on top of that and say another 20k minimum that are no longer battle ready. Russia already doesn't have the workers to handle their current economy, now for sure they won't. They have to take Ukraine and all of its resources to stay afloat, and it is not looking good for them.
A Western intel source told me Lukashenko keeps deferring deployment by about 3 days every time he’s asked by Moscow. He doesn’t want to do it either. He knows.
— Michael Weiss 🌻🇺🇸🇮🇪 (@michaeldweiss) March 22, 2022
I sometimes wonder if the right play is to send them back to Russia en mass. Deliver them to one of the Baltic states and let them walk across the Russian border there in the light of day. Make it hard for Russia to hide the truth. Sure Putin may may force them back to the front line. However, I would venture to say that many of them would be utterly demoralized and unwilling to fight. The Ukrainians wouldn't have to feed or guard them. Best of all, they would likely be a cancer to the fighting spirit if sent back to war or to the Russian narrative if sent back home.VaultingChemist said:According to unconfirmed but realistic looking reports, Russian troops have got surrounded in Bucha, Irpin and Hostomel area near Kyiv, cut from supplies. If true - the biggest defeat of a Russian army until now, and Ukraine needs to start worrying about too many POWs. pic.twitter.com/8t10oZIk7d
— Sergej Sumlenny (@sumlenny) March 22, 2022
Handling large numbers of Russian POWs. Not a logistics problem most would have foreseen at this point.
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Russians running out of PGMs and resorting to area bombing. STOCKS
With regards to China and Russia's equipment failures and shortages I think what we're seeing is the cost of corruption coming to the top. Who knows what they spec'd but it probably wasn't tires that come apart like what we've seen for example. There's probably a bunch of substandard metals and product substitution with electrical components hiding in there too, all contributing to Russian equipment failures. Doubt China would be any different.
Extremely Heavy Fighting Northwest of Kyiv where Ukrainian Para-Military and Military Forces continue to try and encircle Russian Forces near Bucha and Hostomel, the Para-Military Group in this video seems to be a part of one of the Muslim-Majority Battalions. pic.twitter.com/MdspjHkkiA
— OSINTdefender (@sentdefender) March 22, 2022
Waffledynamics said:Rosstafari said:
Let's GOOOOOOO!NEW: U.S. has indications that Ukraine is now "able and willing" to take back territory overtaken by the Russian military: senior U.S. defense official
— Jack Detsch (@JackDetsch) March 22, 2022
Ukraine's military is now trying to push the Russians out of Izyum, in East Ukraine, and has held Mykolaiv against 🇷🇺 attack.
Across the whole country? Somehow I'm not convinced. Russia doesn't seem to be too weak in the South in particular. I've also seen it mentioned here that casualties need to be... what, 1:5 in Ukraine's favor to successfully repel? Are we really at that point?
I think it's 1:3-ish, but that 1:5 number isn't set in stone. It depends on will to fight also, and if the Russian soldiers don't want to be there and the Ukrainians don't want them there, the Russians don't need much of a reason to leave other than they're told not to.
It also depends on each side's combat effectiveness. Russia seems very disorganized at this point, so Ukrainian coordination is acting as a force multiplier against the Russian units that really don't know what they're supposed to be doing because they lack a command and control structure. Ukraine, even though outnumbered, is punching above their weight because they're better organized and more agile. They'll probably maintain higher combat effectiveness even with comparable losses.
ABATTBQ11 said:VaultingChemist said:According to unconfirmed but realistic looking reports, Russian troops have got surrounded in Bucha, Irpin and Hostomel area near Kyiv, cut from supplies. If true - the biggest defeat of a Russian army until now, and Ukraine needs to start worrying about too many POWs. pic.twitter.com/8t10oZIk7d
— Sergej Sumlenny (@sumlenny) March 22, 2022
Handling large numbers of Russian POWs. Not a logistics problem most would have foreseen at this point.
They all heroically fought to the death.
Shhh that's tomorrow.
Even if they manage to take Ukraine, they aren't going to have the manpower to make use of those resources. The Ukrainians that do that work are either gonna already gone or will have been buried fighting to the death.P.U.T.U said:
Russia putting minors on the front lines will all but kill their economy for generations. If they admitted to roughly 10k dead you can go on top of that and say another 20k minimum that are no longer battle ready. Russia already doesn't have the workers to handle their current economy, now for sure they won't. They have to take Ukraine and all of its resources to stay afloat, and it is not looking good for them.
Concern growing that Belarusia may join the fighting. SITREP
The balls on the fella with the RPG just standing firing round after round.ATX_AG_08 said:Extremely Heavy Fighting Northwest of Kyiv where Ukrainian Para-Military and Military Forces continue to try and encircle Russian Forces near Bucha and Hostomel, the Para-Military Group in this video seems to be a part of one of the Muslim-Majority Battalions. pic.twitter.com/MdspjHkkiA
— OSINTdefender (@sentdefender) March 22, 2022
ATX_AG_08 said:Extremely Heavy Fighting Northwest of Kyiv where Ukrainian Para-Military and Military Forces continue to try and encircle Russian Forces near Bucha and Hostomel, the Para-Military Group in this video seems to be a part of one of the Muslim-Majority Battalions. pic.twitter.com/MdspjHkkiA
— OSINTdefender (@sentdefender) March 22, 2022
I really wish he was wearing a helmet though.
— Kelsey (@kelseylescop) March 22, 2022
Good way to solve the impending unemployment problem they are going to have...send them to the military as fodder.P.U.T.U said:
Russia putting minors on the front lines will all but kill their economy for generations. If they admitted to roughly 10k dead you can go on top of that and say another 20k minimum that are no longer battle ready. Russia already doesn't have the workers to handle their current economy, now for sure they won't. They have to take Ukraine and all of its resources to stay afloat, and it is not looking good for them.
I would think sending these kids to the frontlines would almost be a hinderance if you have to spend all your time training them on the job, but its been such a cluster$#$ for them, maybe not.
wangus12 said:The balls on the fella with the RPG just standing firing round after round.ATX_AG_08 said:Extremely Heavy Fighting Northwest of Kyiv where Ukrainian Para-Military and Military Forces continue to try and encircle Russian Forces near Bucha and Hostomel, the Para-Military Group in this video seems to be a part of one of the Muslim-Majority Battalions. pic.twitter.com/MdspjHkkiA
— OSINTdefender (@sentdefender) March 22, 2022
Certainly slinging ordinance down range like there is no supply issues on the Ukraine side.
Company I-1, Ord-Ords '85 -12thFan and Websider-
#Ukraine: The Ukrainians captured an AK-12, funnily enough with the 1P87 optic the wrong way around. pic.twitter.com/ycZY2nkBX3
— Cᴀʟɪʙʀᴇ Oʙsᴄᴜʀᴀ (@CalibreObscura) March 22, 2022
Also can't imagine even the loyal old Ruskies sitting there seeing these young kids getting sent to Ukraine and feel this is for the Motherland. First thought would have to be why are we sending kids to fight when we supposedly have such a vaunted military and where are all the regular soldiers?EastSideAg2002 said:Good way to solve the impending unemployment problem they are going to have...send them to the military as fodder.P.U.T.U said:
Russia putting minors on the front lines will all but kill their economy for generations. If they admitted to roughly 10k dead you can go on top of that and say another 20k minimum that are no longer battle ready. Russia already doesn't have the workers to handle their current economy, now for sure they won't. They have to take Ukraine and all of its resources to stay afloat, and it is not looking good for them.
I would think sending these kids to the frontlines would almost be a hinderance if you have to spend all your time training them on the job, but its been such a cluster$#$ for them, maybe not.
#Breaking: An infamous Canadian sniper, known as Wali, rumoured to have been killed by Russians in Ukraine, is alive and well and resting in the Kyiv region before heading back to the front lines
— Ashleigh Stewart (@Ash_Stewart_) March 22, 2022
Says he was simply in black-out mode
Spoke to him moments ago. Story coming soon pic.twitter.com/a3QXepiYyK
I think that rumor was debunked a week ago or whenever it was.
ETA: Can't wait to read the story.
ETA: Can't wait to read the story.
Why "infamous"?ATX_AG_08 said:#Breaking: An infamous Canadian sniper, known as Wali, rumoured to have been killed by Russians in Ukraine, is alive and well and resting in the Kyiv region before heading back to the front lines
— Ashleigh Stewart (@Ash_Stewart_) March 22, 2022
Says he was simply in black-out mode
Spoke to him moments ago. Story coming soon pic.twitter.com/a3QXepiYyK
A #Russian soldier handed over a tank to #Ukrainian employees for a reward of $ 10,000, Viktor Andrusiv, an adviser to the Interior Minister, said.@ukrpravda_news
— UkraineWorld (@ukraine_world) March 22, 2022
I believe he has the longest confirmed kill on record.
ATX_AG_08 said:According to the military representative, the final decision on the participation of #Belarus in the war must still be taken in #Moscow. "It's not a question of what Lukashenko wants. The question is, does Putin want another unstable country in the region?" the official said.
— NEXTA (@nexta_tv) March 22, 2022
If Belarus entered the war, could Poland invade it from the West. With the instability of Lukashenko, I bet they could take it quickly.
Wali holds the record of the longest confirmed kill, he shot an ISIS fighter in Iraq from a distance of 3.5km using a McMillan Tac-50 rifle in June 2017.74OA said:Why "infamous"?ATX_AG_08 said:#Breaking: An infamous Canadian sniper, known as Wali, rumoured to have been killed by Russians in Ukraine, is alive and well and resting in the Kyiv region before heading back to the front lines
— Ashleigh Stewart (@Ash_Stewart_) March 22, 2022
Says he was simply in black-out mode
Spoke to him moments ago. Story coming soon pic.twitter.com/a3QXepiYyK
.........and why would that make him infamous?ATX_AG_08 said:
I believe he has the longest confirmed kill on record.
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