ABATTBQ11 said:

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Waffledynamics said:

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Ag In Ok said:

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Rossticus said:

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Zelensky's excellent military advisor Arestovich predicted yesterday that Ukraine could win the war in two weeks time unless something extraordinary happened. Russian troops can be expelled from the whole of Ukraine. The new US military supplies might cause the end of the war.

— Anders Åslund (@anders_aslund) March 17, 2022

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I don't agree based on current events. If it were that close, there wouldn't be a loss of isium (sp) and Russian breakthroughs along the Donetsk front.

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Remember that the Germans made significant gains during the Kaiserschlacht at the end of WWI. They also could not sustain them because of major logistical problems, which lead to their initially successful offensive to fail.

I'm not saying the optimistic prediction is right or wrong, but rather that you can still see some gains being made by the ultimate loser in the conflict.

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And the Battle of the Bulge. The Germans had gains and breakouts, but ultimately they lacked the fuel and resources necessary to maintain their gains or move further. They were pushed back relatively quickly and ultimately defeated within 4 months in a much larger conflict.

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That and US air power. Once the skies cleared it was happy hunting

Agreed., most recent Russian offensives have been localized battalion strength probes and they keep over extending, getting ambushed, or strung out and unable to sustain their operation, then counterattacked when low on fuel and ammo and forced to retreat hastily.

ABATTBQ11 said:

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Waffledynamics said:

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Ag In Ok said:

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Rossticus said:

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Zelensky's excellent military advisor Arestovich predicted yesterday that Ukraine could win the war in two weeks time unless something extraordinary happened. Russian troops can be expelled from the whole of Ukraine. The new US military supplies might cause the end of the war.

— Anders Åslund (@anders_aslund) March 17, 2022

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I don't agree based on current events. If it were that close, there wouldn't be a loss of isium (sp) and Russian breakthroughs along the Donetsk front.

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Remember that the Germans made significant gains during the Kaiserschlacht at the end of WWI. They also could not sustain them because of major logistical problems, which lead to their initially successful offensive to fail.

I'm not saying the optimistic prediction is right or wrong, but rather that you can still see some gains being made by the ultimate loser in the conflict.

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And the Battle of the Bulge. The Germans had gains and breakouts, but ultimately they lacked the fuel and resources necessary to maintain their gains or move further. They were pushed back relatively quickly and ultimately defeated within 4 months in a much larger conflict.

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I'm not sure I think 50 BTG's are out of the fight. 30ish or maybe 40 at the high end. Either way it explains Russia's inaction. It takes a long time and superior people to reconstitute groups, resupply, reinforce, reorient and then get them back into the fight. And again if they moved 200,000 troops up to the border a good percentage of those were not combat troops or trigger pullers in our vernacular.

If the Ukes are claiming 13,500 Russians killed. USIC is saying (publicly) 8,000. I think we're somewhat north of the USIC but below the Ukes claim. Based on numbers the US calculations line up with the minimum of the Open Intel community and they're backlogged verifying things. So my conservative guess is 10,000. So call this 42-44k casualties including POW. Their combat and forward supply units are probably in real trouble manpower wise. If they are indeed at 70% (my guess USIC is 60%) of claimed destruction (I bet the air loses are much more inflated than the Tank/IFV/AFV/APC/Truck counts) then the Russians have lost over 30% of their pre-invasion armor. A bit higher in their IFV/AFV/APC. They're going to have a devil of a time regaining the offensive without a LOT of units moving up into a confused and crowded battlespace with probably limited resupply outside ammunition and maybe food/fuel. Parts will start being an issue in another 3 weeks. And if the Ukes start getting more advanced weapons like loitering munitions, more drones, better AD and a continual flow of ATGM then I'd be looking for the exit right now or trying to suck Uke forces into an area and nuking them after a build up to back on the offensive.

There don't look to be good options at this point without massively reinforcing and I don't see the logistics capability to supply that effectively.

424-8, House easily passes bill to revoke Russia’s normal trade status, sending bill to Senate. The lone NO votes:
Boebert
Massie
Gaetz
Biggs
Greene
Bishop
Roy
Grothman

— Manu Raju (@mkraju) March 17, 2022

More precisely, a javelin can hit a t-72 at a much greater distance than a t-72 could effectively return accurate fire.

The 2A46 and similar derivatives can outrange any ATGW except a hellfire technically, but they'd have to be lucky as anything to see, then hit, their target at long ranges. Over about 1500m it isn't considered first shot accurate. They do make cannon fired guided ATGW rounds for it, but they are not really comparable to a Javelin, for example.

Thanks!

Russia reportedly redeploying 40k troops from Syria to Ukraine.

The availability of loitering munitions to take out the artillery and MLRS from a safe distance will be huge.

Rossticus said:

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Russia reportedly redeploying 40k troops from Syria to Ukraine.

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Syrian troops? At the rate of 300 a day? (At least according to reports.) Yeah pass on that being a credible short term option other than throwing them into offensive operations. Unfamiliar terrain, cold, foreign language, I doubt the Ukrainians will take a whole lot of Syrians prisoner outside of a few for propaganda purposes. Armed civilian population catches Syrians inside Uke territory? Good luck son. Foreign mercenaries with a hostile religion in an active war zone? Nope, nope nope. I don't doubt they'll be vicious. I DO doubt they'll be effective. I also don't know how they'll do against armor and artillery in that environment. The units from the Far East command and South Ossetia? They'll do better but the Far East ones will take 2 weeks to get fully into theatre let alone to the front. The SO will be in better condition and fielded faster but I don't know that they'll be enough to make a break through.

Supposedly from the first day of the war.

Footage of Russian troops being ambushed somewhere in Ukraine. pic.twitter.com/HLpDYux0Hg

— Aldin 🇧🇦 (@aldin_ww) March 17, 2022

Agree

PJYoung said:

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Russian Oligarch's Superyacht Stuck In Norway After Locals Refuse To Fuel It https://t.co/befDfMp3xZ

— Bill Browder (@Billbrowder) March 17, 2022

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Hmm, Bill Browder. That's the Magnitsky Act guy that Fusion GPS went after. Small world.

Rossticus said:

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I learned today that a javelin outranges a t-72 main gun, which is a useful feature

— Gerry Doyle (@mgerrydoyle) March 17, 2022

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T-72 were outranged in the Gulf War 20 years ago.
Soviet equipment is *****

SPSAg05 said:

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424-8, House easily passes bill to revoke Russia’s normal trade status, sending bill to Senate. The lone NO votes:
Boebert
Massie
Gaetz
Biggs
Greene
Bishop
Roy
Grothman

— Manu Raju (@mkraju) March 17, 2022

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Regardless of whose side you take in the conflict, I'm conflicted as to whether de-normalizing trade relations is in the right long-term strategy the US should be pursuing.

Rossticus said:

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For perspective, this guy is a member of Uke Territorial Defense force. Good follow.

bye, twat pic.twitter.com/SIeAssOJki

— DZENGA (@grimcultzero) March 17, 2022

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That's an odd patch?
I thought "Hind" was the NATO reporting name for the MI-24?
Why would the Russians have a patch for the MI-24 "hind" ?

Or its just a random patch /cool way of signifying what was shot down. For some reason, i assumed it was collected off the dead pilot

Mr. AGSPRT04 said:

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SPSAg05 said:

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424-8, House easily passes bill to revoke Russia’s normal trade status, sending bill to Senate. The lone NO votes:
Boebert
Massie
Gaetz
Biggs
Greene
Bishop
Roy
Grothman

— Manu Raju (@mkraju) March 17, 2022

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Regardless of whose side you take in the conflict, I'm conflicted as to whether de-normalizing trade relations is in the right long-term strategy the US should be pursuing.

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Sure and at least provide conditions for renewal. IE get the **** out of Ukraine. Back Putin into a corner so bad without an offramp his nuke response becomes way more expected than what a no fly zone and the loss of a couple aircraft would do.

According to a recent Pentagon assessment by the DIA, Russia is expected to brandish threats to use nuclear weapons against the West if stiff Ukrainian resistance continues.

— Global: MilitaryInfo (@Global_Mil_Info) March 17, 2022

deddog said:

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Rossticus said:

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For perspective, this guy is a member of Uke Territorial Defense force. Good follow.

bye, twat pic.twitter.com/SIeAssOJki

— DZENGA (@grimcultzero) March 17, 2022

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That's an odd patch?
I thought "Hind" was the NATO reporting name for the MI-24?
Why would the Russians have a patch for the MI-24 "hind" ?

Or its just a random patch /cool way of signifying what was shot down. For some reason, i assumed it was collected off the dead pilot

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Response to the tweet seems to indicate it was an Mi-17 anyway so the patch does seem odd. Russians typically don't name their aircraft like we do and occasionally informally use the NATO reporting names when they're not too unflattering

Now it's official - Kommersant confirmed Gavrilov resigned (his detention is yet to be confirmed).
Putin humiliated the director of the SVR, placed two FSB generals under house arrest and had Zolotov, the National Guard, to fire his deputy -- in the three weeks of the war. https://t.co/jG2c1KaBWR

— Andrei Soldatov (@AndreiSoldatov) March 17, 2022

Orynx is listing it as an MI-8 and one of the earlier ones shot down. Looks MI8 is crossed with MI17 newer version I guess.

Changes:
Heavy fighting south of Mykolaiv, Russian forces reinforcing to move on the city.

Correction:
Izyum has been surrounded but UA still controls some parts of the city.

— Ukraine War Map (@War_Mapper) March 17, 2022

JFABNRGR said:

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Orynx is listing it as an MI-8 and one of the earlier ones shot down. Looks MI8 is crossed with MI17 newer version I guess.

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Mi-8 and Mi-17 are basically the same thing, same family of helicopters. Mi-8 is more correct though because it looks like Mi-17 is mostly used for export versions

Reeks of desperation.

According to a recent Pentagon assessment by the DIA, Russia is expected to brandish threats to use nuclear weapons against the West if stiff Ukrainian resistance continues.

— Global: MilitaryInfo (@Global_Mil_Info) March 17, 2022

Russia has issued a harsh warning to the United States and its allies, threatening to put the West in its “place”. The menacing words come from Dmitry Medvedev, a former Russian president and current deputy secretary of the country’s Security Council.
https://t.co/snDpwBvmPW

— The Cavell Group (@TCG_CrisisRisks) March 17, 2022