First, the Pentagon assesses today that Russian warships are now shelling areas around Odessa, a major port city in southwestern Ukraine.
— Dan Lamothe (@DanLamothe) March 16, 2022
Other naval activity also has increased, with Russian landing craft moving around but not going ashore, the senior defense official said.
Quote:
It's still unclear if Russia will attempt an amphibious landing on or near Odessa. Russia launched one amphibious landing farther east early in the landing, but it was small and on an uncontested shoreline, the senior defense official said.
For the first time, the Pentagon assesses Wednesday that Russia is discussing sending "replacement troops" to backfill for combat losses. It sees no indications yet that any have moved yet, the senior defense official said. Open-source reports suggest that some already may have.
On weapons deliveries: The Pentagon declines to say what drones it is delivering but calls them "tactical" in nature.
Knowing that many tactical drones are single-use and kamikaze in nature, I asked if it's possible more could be delivered in rolling fashion, like Javelin missiles are.
"I wouldn't rule it out," the senior defense official said.
Advance north of Kyiv is still stalled. Cities that were isolated still are. Ukraine is still in control of Brovary, a town to Kyiv's east where fierce fighting has occurred, senior defense official says.
More than 980 Russian missiles have been launched since the war begin, the senior defense official says. That number continues to climb by several dozen per day.
It's "safe to assume" that
@SecDef
will be asking Slovakian and Bulgarian officials this week what Soviet/Russian systems they may be willing to provide to Ukraine, the senior defense official says.
Some countries may have concerns about giving their own systems away, he adds.
"I know that everyone is focused on the S-300, but there are lots of different air-defense systems" that could be provided to Ukraine, senior defense official says, declining to name them.
No appreciable change in how much Ukraine and Russia are flying in the war, senior defense official says.
To date, Ukraine is flying a handful of sorties per day and Russia has been flying about 200, though some do not cross into Ukrainian airspace.
Finally: Two reporters raised the lack of media access to U.S. military units deployed in eastern Europe in response to Russia's buildup and invasion of Ukraine.
Senior defense official says "I appreciate the question," but that he has no change in media posture to share.
Footnote there: A couple of journalists did briefly visit U.S. troops in eastern Europe countries recently while traveling with Gen. Milley, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff. Nothing any longer than that in duration has materialized so far.
#Biden says that he considers #Putin a war criminal pic.twitter.com/HUxPI7r4ZP
— NEXTA (@nexta_tv) March 16, 2022
⚡️Biden calls Putin “war criminal.”
— The Kyiv Independent (@KyivIndependent) March 16, 2022
In an answer to a journalist’s question, Biden said that he believed that Putin was a war criminal. The U.S. administration had previously stopped short of labeling the atrocities committed in Ukraine as “war crimes.”
Drama Theater from the inside before the #Russian bombing
— NEXTA (@nexta_tv) March 16, 2022
Just look at how many children are there... pic.twitter.com/Sgg4q8gPmP
📸@Maxar (very quickly) releases satellite images of the Mariupol theater it says were taken 14 March. the words "children" are visible in white, written on the pavement in front and back of the theater. pic.twitter.com/iIEfIXJAmz
— Mike Eckel (@Mike_Eckel) March 16, 2022
I would like to see major pushback in the SE, specifically between Donetsk and Vasylivskyi, with the objectives of getting Mariupol relieve and thwarting any further russian advance to the west towards Odessa and or Hwy E95 which runs straight north to Kiev. Hopefully this would draw russian forces out of the Mykolaiv & Kherson areas to go support the counter attack 160-260 miles to the east costing them the west advance and burning up more fuel. Its a risky move, because if you fail you could get trapped below the Dneiper river which is more like a big lake below Zaporizhia and not a lot of places to hide your assets or the tracks you made in the fields getting from A to B. Air power almost a must.74OA said:The Ukrainians are operating on the defensive using interior lines which make it easy to switch forces as needed and is very logistically economical.deddog said:history is replete with examples of attackers attacking on too wide a front and failing.ATX_AG_08 said:
Russia doesn't have near enough troops to surround Kyiv. They're too bogged down on every single front. They haven't taken one major city to date, except maybe Kherson, where the ukes destroyed a number of helicopters yesterday in a counter offensive. Russia is getting dominated militarily, so all they can do at this point is continue to terrorize civilians bombing cities.
The Blitzkrieg showed what works - have a powerful force attack on a few/one front and overwhelm the opposition. So did the Israeli air raids during the 6 day war.
The Russians seemed to be ignoring history, including their own.
In contrast, the three Russian main lines of advance are not mutually supporting, require ever-lengthening logistics tails and may be approaching their offensive culminating point, particularly in the northeast.
I'm hoping Ukraine has been deliberately husbanding enough offensive capacity waiting for the right moment for a major counterattack.
If they can break into the Russian rear in the northeast with sufficient force the Russians may not now have enough left to forestall a general retreat.
❗️❗️❗️Over the past 3️⃣ hours, about 3️⃣0️⃣ fighter jets, transport planes & helicopters lifted into the sky from #Belarusian airfields in Baranovichi, Gomel, Lida, Luninets❗️
— Pavel Latushka (@PavelLatushka) March 16, 2022
6️⃣ missiles launched near the city of Kalinkovichi. Explosions are heard in various cities of #Belarus. pic.twitter.com/4OagAmYMN6
⚡️Ukrainian air defenses destroy 10 Russian aircraft.
— The Kyiv Independent (@KyivIndependent) March 16, 2022
Today, Ukraine’s Air Defenses destroyed three Su-30SM fighters, one SU-34 fighter-bomber, two helicopters, one unknown aircraft, and one UAV. The Ground Forces additionally shot down one fighter, one bomber, and a helicopter.
Saw that - was thinking they got some of their new toys.Captain Positivity said:⚡️Ukrainian air defenses destroy 10 Russian aircraft.
— The Kyiv Independent (@KyivIndependent) March 16, 2022
Today, Ukraine’s Air Defenses destroyed three Su-30SM fighters, one SU-34 fighter-bomber, two helicopters, one unknown aircraft, and one UAV. The Ground Forces additionally shot down one fighter, one bomber, and a helicopter.
Captain Positivity said:
What the heck is going on in Belarus?❗️❗️❗️Over the past 3️⃣ hours, about 3️⃣0️⃣ fighter jets, transport planes & helicopters lifted into the sky from #Belarusian airfields in Baranovichi, Gomel, Lida, Luninets❗️
— Pavel Latushka (@PavelLatushka) March 16, 2022
6️⃣ missiles launched near the city of Kalinkovichi. Explosions are heard in various cities of #Belarus. pic.twitter.com/4OagAmYMN6
Then we can come in and establish a no fly zone. That would also include them of course.lobopride said:
Not sure how realistic this is but what happens if Ukraine gains full air superiority?
ABATTBQ11 said:
Ukraine can't kill enough of them. I hope Russia never recovers from this. If that whole country starves this year, it won't be a tragedy for what they've allowed to happen.
Can someone tell me if that paint job makes them hard to see visually? Because we know they have little stealth tech Or is that their version of "stealth'?VitruvianAg said:Captain Positivity said:
What the heck is going on in Belarus?❗️❗️❗️Over the past 3️⃣ hours, about 3️⃣0️⃣ fighter jets, transport planes & helicopters lifted into the sky from #Belarusian airfields in Baranovichi, Gomel, Lida, Luninets❗️
— Pavel Latushka (@PavelLatushka) March 16, 2022
6️⃣ missiles launched near the city of Kalinkovichi. Explosions are heard in various cities of #Belarus. pic.twitter.com/4OagAmYMN6
Nice plane, shame 'bout the performance.
From that British New Wave song.."nice legs, shame 'bout the face", The Monks
Nope, the Ruskies will just resort to the low-tech way of murdering populations...using artillery, rockets and indiscriminate firing.JFABNRGR said:
Then very quickly the horrible death and destruction of the civilians will come to an end for the time being.
Definitely not their version of stealth- it is an SU-34 - very broadly, the Russian equivalents of the F-111 , and the replacement for the Su-24 fenceraggiehawg said:Can someone tell me if that paint job makes them hard to see visually? Because we know they have little stealth tech Or is that their version of "stealth'?VitruvianAg said:Captain Positivity said:
What the heck is going on in Belarus?❗️❗️❗️Over the past 3️⃣ hours, about 3️⃣0️⃣ fighter jets, transport planes & helicopters lifted into the sky from #Belarusian airfields in Baranovichi, Gomel, Lida, Luninets❗️
— Pavel Latushka (@PavelLatushka) March 16, 2022
6️⃣ missiles launched near the city of Kalinkovichi. Explosions are heard in various cities of #Belarus. pic.twitter.com/4OagAmYMN6
Nice plane, shame 'bout the performance.
From that British New Wave song.."nice legs, shame 'bout the face", The Monks
Thanks. When I think of camo or visibility, the color I don't think of is turquoise.deddog said:Definitely not their version of stealth- it is an SU-34 - very broadly, the Russian equivalents of the F-111 , and the replacement for the Su-24 fenceraggiehawg said:Can someone tell me if that paint job makes them hard to see visually? Because we know they have little stealth tech Or is that their version of "stealth'?VitruvianAg said:Captain Positivity said:
What the heck is going on in Belarus?❗️❗️❗️Over the past 3️⃣ hours, about 3️⃣0️⃣ fighter jets, transport planes & helicopters lifted into the sky from #Belarusian airfields in Baranovichi, Gomel, Lida, Luninets❗️
— Pavel Latushka (@PavelLatushka) March 16, 2022
6️⃣ missiles launched near the city of Kalinkovichi. Explosions are heard in various cities of #Belarus. pic.twitter.com/4OagAmYMN6
Nice plane, shame 'bout the performance.
From that British New Wave song.."nice legs, shame 'bout the face", The Monks
Makes them harder to detect when they are at the bottom of the oceanaggiehawg said:Thanks. When I think of camo or visibility, the color I don't think of is turquoise.deddog said:Definitely not their version of stealth- it is an SU-34 - very broadly, the Russian equivalents of the F-111 , and the replacement for the Su-24 fenceraggiehawg said:Can someone tell me if that paint job makes them hard to see visually? Because we know they have little stealth tech Or is that their version of "stealth'?VitruvianAg said:Captain Positivity said:
What the heck is going on in Belarus?❗️❗️❗️Over the past 3️⃣ hours, about 3️⃣0️⃣ fighter jets, transport planes & helicopters lifted into the sky from #Belarusian airfields in Baranovichi, Gomel, Lida, Luninets❗️
— Pavel Latushka (@PavelLatushka) March 16, 2022
6️⃣ missiles launched near the city of Kalinkovichi. Explosions are heard in various cities of #Belarus. pic.twitter.com/4OagAmYMN6
Nice plane, shame 'bout the performance.
From that British New Wave song.."nice legs, shame 'bout the face", The Monks
I'm sure their subs appreciate that they don't have that paint job.deddog said:Makes them harder to detect when they are at the bottom of the oceanaggiehawg said:Thanks. When I think of camo or visibility, the color I don't think of is turquoise.deddog said:Definitely not their version of stealth- it is an SU-34 - very broadly, the Russian equivalents of the F-111 , and the replacement for the Su-24 fenceraggiehawg said:Can someone tell me if that paint job makes them hard to see visually? Because we know they have little stealth tech Or is that their version of "stealth'?VitruvianAg said:Captain Positivity said:
What the heck is going on in Belarus?❗️❗️❗️Over the past 3️⃣ hours, about 3️⃣0️⃣ fighter jets, transport planes & helicopters lifted into the sky from #Belarusian airfields in Baranovichi, Gomel, Lida, Luninets❗️
— Pavel Latushka (@PavelLatushka) March 16, 2022
6️⃣ missiles launched near the city of Kalinkovichi. Explosions are heard in various cities of #Belarus. pic.twitter.com/4OagAmYMN6
Nice plane, shame 'bout the performance.
From that British New Wave song.."nice legs, shame 'bout the face", The Monks
The Russians currently hold that area
— OSINTtechnical (@Osinttechnical) March 16, 2022
Yeah, I think Kiev is the Ukrainian center of gravity. Losing it would be hard to recover from, so that's why I commented on counterattacking in the northeast. If the Ukrainians can get that done successfully, they can then switch forces on those internal lines and go after the southern Russian force. That force is smaller and less easily supplied than are forces in the northeast which can more directly access support from Russia.JFABNRGR said:I would like to see major pushback in the SE, specifically between Donetsk and Vasylivskyi, with the objectives of getting Mariupol relieve and thwarting any further russian advance to the west towards Odessa and or Hwy E95 which runs straight north to Kiev. Hopefully this would draw russian forces out of the Mykolaiv & Kherson areas to go support the counter attack 160-260 miles to the east costing them the west advance and burning up more fuel. Its a risky move, because if you fail you could get trapped below the Dneiper river which is more like a big lake below Zaporizhia and not a lot of places to hide your assets or the tracks you made in the fields getting from A to B. Air power almost a must.74OA said:The Ukrainians are operating on the defensive using interior lines which make it easy to switch forces as needed and is very logistically economical.deddog said:history is replete with examples of attackers attacking on too wide a front and failing.ATX_AG_08 said:
Russia doesn't have near enough troops to surround Kyiv. They're too bogged down on every single front. They haven't taken one major city to date, except maybe Kherson, where the ukes destroyed a number of helicopters yesterday in a counter offensive. Russia is getting dominated militarily, so all they can do at this point is continue to terrorize civilians bombing cities.
The Blitzkrieg showed what works - have a powerful force attack on a few/one front and overwhelm the opposition. So did the Israeli air raids during the 6 day war.
The Russians seemed to be ignoring history, including their own.
In contrast, the three Russian main lines of advance are not mutually supporting, require ever-lengthening logistics tails and may be approaching their offensive culminating point, particularly in the northeast.
I'm hoping Ukraine has been deliberately husbanding enough offensive capacity waiting for the right moment for a major counterattack.
If they can break into the Russian rear in the northeast with sufficient force the Russians may not now have enough left to forestall a general retreat.
A number of fires were visible today in Bucha, Irpin, and Horenka, just to the northwest of Kyiv pic.twitter.com/f1H2oxvMd4
— OSINTtechnical (@Osinttechnical) March 16, 2022
Odd flight movements for Lavrov. Wonder what’s bringing him back so urgently to Moscow, Russia https://t.co/FskcPMdWpp
— OSINT UK (@jon96179496) March 16, 2022
I wonder if it's Belarus related?Rossticus said:Odd flight movements for Lavrov. Wonder what’s bringing him back so urgently to Moscow, Russia https://t.co/FskcPMdWpp
— OSINT UK (@jon96179496) March 16, 2022
It's a single line and I have no idea what its current condition is, but that's a fragile thread to hang a major offensive thrust on.TRM said:
Isn't railroad supply line still up from Crimea into southern Ukraine?
Azhiev's group in Syria, Ajnad al-Kavkaz, participated in many rebel offensives against Russian-backed Assad regime forces from 2012-2017. They've been dormant ever since, but this war is an opening for many Chechen veterans of Syria to continue the fight. https://t.co/blDoJKo7OL
— Neil Hauer (@NeilPHauer) March 16, 2022
GAC06 said:
Nothing says steely eyed killer like posing with a pigeon
aggiehawg said:Thanks. When I think of camo or visibility, the color I don't think of is turquoise.deddog said:Definitely not their version of stealth- it is an SU-34 - very broadly, the Russian equivalents of the F-111 , and the replacement for the Su-24 fenceraggiehawg said:Can someone tell me if that paint job makes them hard to see visually? Because we know they have little stealth tech Or is that their version of "stealth'?VitruvianAg said:Captain Positivity said:
What the heck is going on in Belarus?❗️❗️❗️Over the past 3️⃣ hours, about 3️⃣0️⃣ fighter jets, transport planes & helicopters lifted into the sky from #Belarusian airfields in Baranovichi, Gomel, Lida, Luninets❗️
— Pavel Latushka (@PavelLatushka) March 16, 2022
6️⃣ missiles launched near the city of Kalinkovichi. Explosions are heard in various cities of #Belarus. pic.twitter.com/4OagAmYMN6
Nice plane, shame 'bout the performance.
From that British New Wave song.."nice legs, shame 'bout the face", The Monks
Is that a carrier pigeon? Would be a tactical advantage over the russian open radio communication systemsRossticus said:GAC06 said:
Nothing says steely eyed killer like posing with a pigeon
Hey, maybe it was lunch.
Dorm 15 said:
Is it correct that the US is sending drones?
Predator B ?Rossticus said:Dorm 15 said:
Is it correct that the US is sending drones?
Certain drones, yes
