***Russian - Ukraine War Tactical and Strategic Updates*** [Warning on OP]

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OKC~Ag
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LMCane said:

Red Pear Realty said:

If the Kremlin is seeking out foreign fighters from Syria, Africa, etc....you know they are getting desperate. Coupled with the announcement that 16,000 Russian volunteers are going to the Ukraine, that tells me they are getting to the end of their rope if that's all they could scrounge up.

I have been reading this not as 16,000 Russian volunteers..

but 16,000 volunteers from the Middle East who would be fighting on the side of the Russians.

That Putin is telling his military to transfer them from Libya and Syria to the Ukrainian front.


Do these mercernaries know that puin can't pay them in dollars or euros? i am pretty sure mercenaries won't
want rubles or get payed in potatoes....
TRM
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Some more on the "Ukraine" attack on Belarus.
Twice an Aggie
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Check the signals. If they were Russian craft attacking Belarus then make sure that both Russia and Belarus know that the US will respond with an escalation as that is seen as an escalation. Quit being pushed and start pushing back...
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A Syrian on the Ukrainian side - not clear if he's affiliated with one of the terrorist groups or other groups fighting Assad.

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txags92
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Ulysses90 said:

VaultingChemist said:


That post is encouraging because they have that many "assets" in terms of air frames but concerning because of the low sortie generation rate. If they are flying only 20% of their airframes that raises questions about whether additional MiGs would do them any good right now.

Sortie generation rate depends on a lot of factors but from this short list you can probably figure out why they are not flying that much. I'll make a bold assumption that a lack of targets isn't one of the reasons.

1. Available planes
2. Available pilots
3. Available airfields
4. Available fuel
5. Available ordnance
6. Available maintenance and repair parts
7. Enabling conditions (jamming enemy radars, neutralizing SAMs, avoiding enemy fighter overmatch)

It seems that they probably have the available planes, pilots, airfields, and ordnance for the time being. My guess is that it the enabling conditions, repair parts, and fuel that are keeping the UAF from being a much larger factor in this fight. I would also venture that it's the lack of enablers that is most responsible for the UAF not attempting to kill the RF artillery.

Help UAF generate sorties faster by providing them with the ability to neutralize the RF radar and SAMs and the UAF could help break some of these sieges.


When you think about how valuable those planes are to Ukraine, and how each sortie risks revealing to the Russians where they are flying from, they are likely using them sparingly, and only for the most critical missions. I am sure there are resource limitations as well, but I would guess that the Ukrainians are looking very carefully at each potential air mission and asking if the value of the target is worth the risk of the loss of the airframe, or worse the loss of secrecy about where they are operating from.
Ulysses90
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Faustus said:

https://www.nytimes.com/live/2022/03/11/world/ukraine-russia-news

Quote:

. . .
Ukraine's most sophisticated attack drone is about as stealthy as a crop duster: slow, low-flying and completely defenseless. So when the Russian invasion began, many experts expected the few drones that the Ukrainian forces managed to get off the ground would be shot down in hours.

But more than two weeks into the conflict, Ukraine's drones Turkish-made Bayraktar TB2 models that buzz along at about half the speed of a Cessna are not only still flying, they also shoot guided missiles at Russian missile launchers, tanks and supply trains, according to Pentagon officials.

The drones have become a sort of lumbering canary in the war's coal mine, a sign of the astonishing resiliency of the Ukrainian defense forces and the larger problems that the Russians have encountered.

"The performance of the Russian military has been shocking," said David A. Deptula, a retired three-star Air Force general who planned the U.S. air campaigns in Afghanistan in 2001 and the Persian Gulf in 1991. "Their failure to secure air superiority has been reflected by their slow and ponderous actions on the ground. Conversely, the Ukrainian air force performing better than expected has been a big boost to the morale of the entire country."
. . .
Before Russia invaded Ukraine, Bayraktar TB2s were already punching above their weight. The drones, with a 39-foot wingspan, are assembled in Turkey but rely extensively on electronics made in the United States and Canada. A growing number of countries in Africa, the Middle East and Europe have bought them because, at about $2 million apiece, they are much cheaper than manned combat aircraft.
. . .
But military planners and civilian experts cautioned that the drones which have no self-defense systems, are easily spotted by radar and cruise at only about 80 miles an hour would be sitting ducks for Russia's many-layered air defense system. Russian forces have long-range cruise missiles that can destroy the drones on the ground, short-range missile systems that can easily knock them out of the air, and electronic jammers that can block the drones' communications, leaving them to drop lifeless from the sky.

"Even with the drones' record of success, everyone expected that, once they really faced the full gamut of Russian defenses, they would stand no chance," said Lauren Kahn, who studies drone warfare at the New York-based Council on Foreign Relations. Their survival and continued use "is really raising questions about the Russians' capabilities," she said.

Pentagon officials remain puzzled by the Russians' failure to dominate the skies over Ukraine, at least so far. Moscow built up sophisticated missile defenses and air power on Ukraine's borders, but it has not been using them effectively to complement its ground forces, U.S. officials and analysts said. And Ukrainian air defenses have been surprisingly effective at downing Russian aircraft.

"We aren't seeing the level of integration between air and ground operations that you would expect to see," John F. Kirby, the chief Pentagon spokesman, said on Monday. "Not everything they're doing on the ground is fully being supported by what they're doing in the air. There does seem to be some disconnect there."
. . .
"It is so perplexing, and no one is quite sure what went wrong," said Samuel Bendett, an expert on the Russian military at the Center for a New American Security, a Washington-based research group. "Russia has a large number of drones, and the assumption was they would be using them for strikes," he said. "That assumption has been completely undone."
. . .
Without air superiority, the Russian offensive has been bogged down, claiming little new territory in recent days while losses mount. The Pentagon estimated on Wednesday that 5,000 to 6,000 Russian troops had been killed, and observers said the number of tanks, missile launchers and trucks that Russia had lost ran into the hundreds.

At the start of the war, Ukraine had five to 20 Bayraktar TB2s in service. Russia claims to have shot down several of them, and it is unclear how many remain. Still, Ukraine continues to release video images that appear to show the drones destroying Russian vehicles.

Air superiority is seen as a critical first step in modern warfare, and armed forces spend a great deal of time and money trying to ensure that they can quickly dominate the skies when fighting starts. Strategists studying Russia assumed that it would immediately use missile strikes to destroy Ukraine's air force and surface-to-air missile batteries before they could be used, and then move in scores of fighter jets, radar jammers and missile trucks to take control of Ukraine's air space. With air superiority established, Russia could freely use its fighters, bombers and drones to annihilate the Ukrainian military.

That has not happened.

In the first days of the invasion, the Russian military appeared to hold back much of its air power, perhaps assuming that the Ukrainian military would not put up much of a fight. Instead, Russian forces met stiff resistance; when they tried to move in mobile missile launchers and electronic warfare vehicles to control the airspace, the convoys were ambushed by Ukrainians before they could reach the fight.

"It's certainly not the way we would prosecute an air campaign," said Michael Kofman, the director of Russia studies at C.N.A., a defense research institute in Arlington, Va.

"But then again, this war didn't start the way the Russian military organizes and trains to fight, either," he said. "It was a bungled regime-change operation that became a war they didn't really plan for."

But lack of a quick victory for Russia did not mean victory for Ukraine, Mr. Kofman added, noting that Ukraine continues to lose aircraft to Russian missiles, and that it was not possible to glean the true state of the air war from official statements and news reports alone.
. . .



Granted that a MQ-1 Predator was never designed to operate in a high threat environment for enemy SAMs or fighters because it was originally intended to be a surveillance platform until the CIA proved it had potential for hauling PGMs when they killed Anwar al Awlaki in Yemen. The Bayraktar flies as fast as a Predator and has a higher ceiling. Bayraktar has a smaller payload than a Predator but it has four pylons vice two for the Pred. The Predators sold by the US to other countries cost ~$20MM while the Bayraktars sell for $11.5MM.

https://armedforces.eu/compare/drones_Bayraktar_TB2_vs_General_Atomics_MQ-1_Predator

The Bayraktars are effective because the Russian air defense isn't.
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aggiehawg
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TRM said:


Can the Ukrainians "hire" Blackwater or an equivalent force, then?
txags92
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Faustus said:

https://www.nytimes.com/live/2022/03/11/world/ukraine-russia-news

Quote:

. . .
Ukraine's most sophisticated attack drone is about as stealthy as a crop duster: slow, low-flying and completely defenseless. So when the Russian invasion began, many experts expected the few drones that the Ukrainian forces managed to get off the ground would be shot down in hours.

But more than two weeks into the conflict, Ukraine's drones Turkish-made Bayraktar TB2 models that buzz along at about half the speed of a Cessna are not only still flying, they also shoot guided missiles at Russian missile launchers, tanks and supply trains, according to Pentagon officials.

The drones have become a sort of lumbering canary in the war's coal mine, a sign of the astonishing resiliency of the Ukrainian defense forces and the larger problems that the Russians have encountered.

"The performance of the Russian military has been shocking," said David A. Deptula, a retired three-star Air Force general who planned the U.S. air campaigns in Afghanistan in 2001 and the Persian Gulf in 1991. "Their failure to secure air superiority has been reflected by their slow and ponderous actions on the ground. Conversely, the Ukrainian air force performing better than expected has been a big boost to the morale of the entire country."
. . .
Before Russia invaded Ukraine, Bayraktar TB2s were already punching above their weight. The drones, with a 39-foot wingspan, are assembled in Turkey but rely extensively on electronics made in the United States and Canada. A growing number of countries in Africa, the Middle East and Europe have bought them because, at about $2 million apiece, they are much cheaper than manned combat aircraft.
. . .
But military planners and civilian experts cautioned that the drones which have no self-defense systems, are easily spotted by radar and cruise at only about 80 miles an hour would be sitting ducks for Russia's many-layered air defense system. Russian forces have long-range cruise missiles that can destroy the drones on the ground, short-range missile systems that can easily knock them out of the air, and electronic jammers that can block the drones' communications, leaving them to drop lifeless from the sky.

"Even with the drones' record of success, everyone expected that, once they really faced the full gamut of Russian defenses, they would stand no chance," said Lauren Kahn, who studies drone warfare at the New York-based Council on Foreign Relations. Their survival and continued use "is really raising questions about the Russians' capabilities," she said.

Pentagon officials remain puzzled by the Russians' failure to dominate the skies over Ukraine, at least so far. Moscow built up sophisticated missile defenses and air power on Ukraine's borders, but it has not been using them effectively to complement its ground forces, U.S. officials and analysts said. And Ukrainian air defenses have been surprisingly effective at downing Russian aircraft.

"We aren't seeing the level of integration between air and ground operations that you would expect to see," John F. Kirby, the chief Pentagon spokesman, said on Monday. "Not everything they're doing on the ground is fully being supported by what they're doing in the air. There does seem to be some disconnect there."
. . .
"It is so perplexing, and no one is quite sure what went wrong," said Samuel Bendett, an expert on the Russian military at the Center for a New American Security, a Washington-based research group. "Russia has a large number of drones, and the assumption was they would be using them for strikes," he said. "That assumption has been completely undone."
. . .
Without air superiority, the Russian offensive has been bogged down, claiming little new territory in recent days while losses mount. The Pentagon estimated on Wednesday that 5,000 to 6,000 Russian troops had been killed, and observers said the number of tanks, missile launchers and trucks that Russia had lost ran into the hundreds.

At the start of the war, Ukraine had five to 20 Bayraktar TB2s in service. Russia claims to have shot down several of them, and it is unclear how many remain. Still, Ukraine continues to release video images that appear to show the drones destroying Russian vehicles.

Air superiority is seen as a critical first step in modern warfare, and armed forces spend a great deal of time and money trying to ensure that they can quickly dominate the skies when fighting starts. Strategists studying Russia assumed that it would immediately use missile strikes to destroy Ukraine's air force and surface-to-air missile batteries before they could be used, and then move in scores of fighter jets, radar jammers and missile trucks to take control of Ukraine's air space. With air superiority established, Russia could freely use its fighters, bombers and drones to annihilate the Ukrainian military.

That has not happened.

In the first days of the invasion, the Russian military appeared to hold back much of its air power, perhaps assuming that the Ukrainian military would not put up much of a fight. Instead, Russian forces met stiff resistance; when they tried to move in mobile missile launchers and electronic warfare vehicles to control the airspace, the convoys were ambushed by Ukrainians before they could reach the fight.

"It's certainly not the way we would prosecute an air campaign," said Michael Kofman, the director of Russia studies at C.N.A., a defense research institute in Arlington, Va.

"But then again, this war didn't start the way the Russian military organizes and trains to fight, either," he said. "It was a bungled regime-change operation that became a war they didn't really plan for."

But lack of a quick victory for Russia did not mean victory for Ukraine, Mr. Kofman added, noting that Ukraine continues to lose aircraft to Russian missiles, and that it was not possible to glean the true state of the air war from official statements and news reports alone.
. . .


I wonder how much of the lack of Russian air superiority is due to an inability of their ground based anti-air forces to distinguish between Russian and Ukrainian planes? If they had some of their own planes shot down by their SAMs, would they pull back and just let the SAM systems go after the Ukrainians alone?
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txags92 said:

Ulysses90 said:

VaultingChemist said:


That post is encouraging because they have that many "assets" in terms of air frames but concerning because of the low sortie generation rate. If they are flying only 20% of their airframes that raises questions about whether additional MiGs would do them any good right now.

Sortie generation rate depends on a lot of factors but from this short list you can probably figure out why they are not flying that much. I'll make a bold assumption that a lack of targets isn't one of the reasons.

1. Available planes
2. Available pilots
3. Available airfields
4. Available fuel
5. Available ordnance
6. Available maintenance and repair parts
7. Enabling conditions (jamming enemy radars, neutralizing SAMs, avoiding enemy fighter overmatch)

It seems that they probably have the available planes, pilots, airfields, and ordnance for the time being. My guess is that it the enabling conditions, repair parts, and fuel that are keeping the UAF from being a much larger factor in this fight. I would also venture that it's the lack of enablers that is most responsible for the UAF not attempting to kill the RF artillery.

Help UAF generate sorties faster by providing them with the ability to neutralize the RF radar and SAMs and the UAF could help break some of these sieges.


When you think about how valuable those planes are to Ukraine, and how each sortie risks revealing to the Russians where they are flying from, they are likely using them sparingly, and only for the most critical missions. I am sure there are resource limitations as well, but I would guess that the Ukrainians are looking very carefully at each potential air mission and asking if the value of the target is worth the risk of the loss of the airframe, or worse the loss of secrecy about where they are operating from.

Please pardon my ignorance about these things, but is it possible that we're providing cover by jamming their radar somehow?
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nortex97
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aggiehawg said:

TRM said:


Can the Ukrainians "hire" Blackwater or an equivalent force, then?
Well, blackwater doesn't exist any longer, but broadly speaking I think both sides are propagandizing about the foreign fighters they are bringing in. It's not a conflict that is likely to be decided based on a few battalions etc. of foreign soldiers/mercenaries. Logistics and indirect fire will be decisive as usual in a battle for control of a land mass.
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txags92
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agent-maroon said:

txags92 said:

Ulysses90 said:

VaultingChemist said:


That post is encouraging because they have that many "assets" in terms of air frames but concerning because of the low sortie generation rate. If they are flying only 20% of their airframes that raises questions about whether additional MiGs would do them any good right now.

Sortie generation rate depends on a lot of factors but from this short list you can probably figure out why they are not flying that much. I'll make a bold assumption that a lack of targets isn't one of the reasons.

1. Available planes
2. Available pilots
3. Available airfields
4. Available fuel
5. Available ordnance
6. Available maintenance and repair parts
7. Enabling conditions (jamming enemy radars, neutralizing SAMs, avoiding enemy fighter overmatch)

It seems that they probably have the available planes, pilots, airfields, and ordnance for the time being. My guess is that it the enabling conditions, repair parts, and fuel that are keeping the UAF from being a much larger factor in this fight. I would also venture that it's the lack of enablers that is most responsible for the UAF not attempting to kill the RF artillery.

Help UAF generate sorties faster by providing them with the ability to neutralize the RF radar and SAMs and the UAF could help break some of these sieges.


When you think about how valuable those planes are to Ukraine, and how each sortie risks revealing to the Russians where they are flying from, they are likely using them sparingly, and only for the most critical missions. I am sure there are resource limitations as well, but I would guess that the Ukrainians are looking very carefully at each potential air mission and asking if the value of the target is worth the risk of the loss of the airframe, or worse the loss of secrecy about where they are operating from.

Please pardon my ignorance about these things, but is it possible that we're providing cover by jamming their radar somehow?
It is possible, but I doubt it. That would be seen as a pretty aggressive move by Russia. I think it is more likely that the Russians assume that the E-3s we have up over Poland and the Rivet Joint we have had over Romania are giving the Ukrainians direct information about where their aircraft are and where they appear to be heading. That is likely to give them alot of hesitation about flying around over Western Ukraine looking for aircraft/airfields. I have not seen anything about whether there are any Russian airborne radar systems operating that could see the Urkainian planes, but I doubt it, given the lack of quality equipment they have shown so far. Their Mainstays don't have the range that our E-3s do. Without their own airborne radar systems controlling the airspace will be difficult to impossible against a Ukrainian air force supported by our E-3s.
neAGle96
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LMCane said:

Rossticus said:

Russia isn't even giving these guys a chance. Holy eff. It's like they knocked over a museum.


In the first few seconds of the video you can see on the ground it looks like they have a Degtyaryov Single Shot Anti-Tank Weapon System Model 1941!!


Is this what the avg Russian infantrymen is equipped with?!!
javajaws
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TRM said:


You can make molotov cocktails without a lit "fuse" - using phosphorus to ignite the content when broken. This variant is most likely what something like these drones would be used with.
RebelE Infantry
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neAGle96 said:

LMCane said:

Rossticus said:

Russia isn't even giving these guys a chance. Holy eff. It's like they knocked over a museum.


In the first few seconds of the video you can see on the ground it looks like they have a Degtyaryov Single Shot Anti-Tank Weapon System Model 1941!!


Is this what the avg Russian infantrymen is equipped with?!!



No. These dudes are reservists with the Donetsk Peoples Republic.
aggiehawg
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RebelE Infantry said:

neAGle96 said:

LMCane said:

Rossticus said:

Russia isn't even giving these guys a chance. Holy eff. It's like they knocked over a museum.


In the first few seconds of the video you can see on the ground it looks like they have a Degtyaryov Single Shot Anti-Tank Weapon System Model 1941!!


Is this what the avg Russian infantrymen is equipped with?!!



No. These dudes are reservists with the Donetsk Peoples Republic.
Who are being supplied and funded by Russia, right?
aggiehawg
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Doesn't seem to much change from yesterday.

BQ78
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If we were doing that we would be fully involved.
rgag12
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TRM said:




I don't know if they'll find a way to get the drones to actually light the Molotovs, but sounds like a recipe to make a lot of drones catch on fire
Who?mikejones!
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https://www.instagram.com/tv/Ca94igoo3L5/?utm_medium=share_sheet
RebelE Infantry
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aggiehawg said:

RebelE Infantry said:

neAGle96 said:

LMCane said:

Rossticus said:

Russia isn't even giving these guys a chance. Holy eff. It's like they knocked over a museum.


In the first few seconds of the video you can see on the ground it looks like they have a Degtyaryov Single Shot Anti-Tank Weapon System Model 1941!!


Is this what the avg Russian infantrymen is equipped with?!!



No. These dudes are reservists with the Donetsk Peoples Republic.
Who are being supplied and funded by Russia, right?


Presumably, to some extent. Good way to get rid of old stock.
74OA
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UPDATE
richardag
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Agthatbuilds said:

https://www.instagram.com/tv/Ca94igoo3L5/?utm_medium=share_sheet
Heartbreaking.
depogs
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Pretty sure those are the "separatist" forces.
These are the times that try men's souls. The summer soldier and the sunshine patriot will, in this crisis, shrink from the service of their country; but he that stands it now, deserves the love and thanks of man and woman. Tyranny, like hell, is not easily conquered; yet we have this consolation with us, that the harder the conflict, the more glorious the triumph.-Thomas Paine
74OA
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Early lessons-learned sound a lot like old lessons-relearned.

UKRAINE
4the_Record
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...referring to the equipment, the men using it or the people it's being used on?...

or all of the above?
Teddy Perkins
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Ulysses90
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Teddy Perkins said:



High tier target eliminated. Keep these coming!


Could be a ploy to boost morale among the troops using Field Marshal Slim's philosophy.

"Nothing is so good for the morale of the troops as occasionally to see a dead general."
William Slim, 1st Viscount Slim
VitruvianAg
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ABATTBQ11 said:

deddog said:

ABATTBQ11 said:

VaultingChemist said:

Spoofing a flight labeled FCKPUTIN.


From the AN-225 no less
Too soon


Gone but not forgotten
Maybe they can salvage some parts and finish #2...
aggiehawg
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Something appears to be happening with Russia's intelligence directorate.



RebelE Infantry
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4the_Record said:

...referring to the equipment, the men using it or the people it's being used on?...

or all of the above?


The equipment. Similar in principle to us delivering Javelins that are primarily towards the end of their shelf life.

But I don't know much about how or to what extent the Russian government supplies the separatist forces.
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