Ulysses90 said:

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Faustus said:

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https://www.nytimes.com/live/2022/03/11/world/ukraine-russia-news

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. . .
Ukraine's most sophisticated attack drone is about as stealthy as a crop duster: slow, low-flying and completely defenseless. So when the Russian invasion began, many experts expected the few drones that the Ukrainian forces managed to get off the ground would be shot down in hours.

But more than two weeks into the conflict, Ukraine's drones Turkish-made Bayraktar TB2 models that buzz along at about half the speed of a Cessna are not only still flying, they also shoot guided missiles at Russian missile launchers, tanks and supply trains, according to Pentagon officials.

The drones have become a sort of lumbering canary in the war's coal mine, a sign of the astonishing resiliency of the Ukrainian defense forces and the larger problems that the Russians have encountered.

"The performance of the Russian military has been shocking," said David A. Deptula, a retired three-star Air Force general who planned the U.S. air campaigns in Afghanistan in 2001 and the Persian Gulf in 1991. "Their failure to secure air superiority has been reflected by their slow and ponderous actions on the ground. Conversely, the Ukrainian air force performing better than expected has been a big boost to the morale of the entire country."
. . .
Before Russia invaded Ukraine, Bayraktar TB2s were already punching above their weight. The drones, with a 39-foot wingspan, are assembled in Turkey but rely extensively on electronics made in the United States and Canada. A growing number of countries in Africa, the Middle East and Europe have bought them because, at about $2 million apiece, they are much cheaper than manned combat aircraft.
. . .
But military planners and civilian experts cautioned that the drones which have no self-defense systems, are easily spotted by radar and cruise at only about 80 miles an hour would be sitting ducks for Russia's many-layered air defense system. Russian forces have long-range cruise missiles that can destroy the drones on the ground, short-range missile systems that can easily knock them out of the air, and electronic jammers that can block the drones' communications, leaving them to drop lifeless from the sky.

"Even with the drones' record of success, everyone expected that, once they really faced the full gamut of Russian defenses, they would stand no chance," said Lauren Kahn, who studies drone warfare at the New York-based Council on Foreign Relations. Their survival and continued use "is really raising questions about the Russians' capabilities," she said.

Pentagon officials remain puzzled by the Russians' failure to dominate the skies over Ukraine, at least so far. Moscow built up sophisticated missile defenses and air power on Ukraine's borders, but it has not been using them effectively to complement its ground forces, U.S. officials and analysts said. And Ukrainian air defenses have been surprisingly effective at downing Russian aircraft.

"We aren't seeing the level of integration between air and ground operations that you would expect to see," John F. Kirby, the chief Pentagon spokesman, said on Monday. "Not everything they're doing on the ground is fully being supported by what they're doing in the air. There does seem to be some disconnect there."
. . .
"It is so perplexing, and no one is quite sure what went wrong," said Samuel Bendett, an expert on the Russian military at the Center for a New American Security, a Washington-based research group. "Russia has a large number of drones, and the assumption was they would be using them for strikes," he said. "That assumption has been completely undone."
. . .
Without air superiority, the Russian offensive has been bogged down, claiming little new territory in recent days while losses mount. The Pentagon estimated on Wednesday that 5,000 to 6,000 Russian troops had been killed, and observers said the number of tanks, missile launchers and trucks that Russia had lost ran into the hundreds.

At the start of the war, Ukraine had five to 20 Bayraktar TB2s in service. Russia claims to have shot down several of them, and it is unclear how many remain. Still, Ukraine continues to release video images that appear to show the drones destroying Russian vehicles.

Air superiority is seen as a critical first step in modern warfare, and armed forces spend a great deal of time and money trying to ensure that they can quickly dominate the skies when fighting starts. Strategists studying Russia assumed that it would immediately use missile strikes to destroy Ukraine's air force and surface-to-air missile batteries before they could be used, and then move in scores of fighter jets, radar jammers and missile trucks to take control of Ukraine's air space. With air superiority established, Russia could freely use its fighters, bombers and drones to annihilate the Ukrainian military.

That has not happened.

In the first days of the invasion, the Russian military appeared to hold back much of its air power, perhaps assuming that the Ukrainian military would not put up much of a fight. Instead, Russian forces met stiff resistance; when they tried to move in mobile missile launchers and electronic warfare vehicles to control the airspace, the convoys were ambushed by Ukrainians before they could reach the fight.

"It's certainly not the way we would prosecute an air campaign," said Michael Kofman, the director of Russia studies at C.N.A., a defense research institute in Arlington, Va.

"But then again, this war didn't start the way the Russian military organizes and trains to fight, either," he said. "It was a bungled regime-change operation that became a war they didn't really plan for."

But lack of a quick victory for Russia did not mean victory for Ukraine, Mr. Kofman added, noting that Ukraine continues to lose aircraft to Russian missiles, and that it was not possible to glean the true state of the air war from official statements and news reports alone.
. . .

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Granted that a MQ-1 Predator was never designed to operate in a high threat environment for enemy SAMs or fighters because it was originally intended to be a surveillance platform until the CIA proved it had potential for hauling PGMs when they killed Anwar al Awlaki in Yemen. The Bayraktar flies as fast as a Predator and has a higher ceiling. Bayraktar has a smaller payload than a Predator but it has four pylons vice two for the Pred. The Predators sold by the US to other countries cost ~$20MM while the Bayraktars sell for $11.5MM.

https://armedforces.eu/compare/drones_Bayraktar_TB2_vs_General_Atomics_MQ-1_Predator

The Bayraktars are effective because the Russian air defense isn't.

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Which begs the question about the Israelis and a certain Persian Nuclear Program....and my understanding is that Iranian Air Defenses are Russian, no?

Could be some scapegoating to pass the blame for this "operation" onto the intelligence service.

But more than likely he's trying to root out opposition within the government because he knows the proverbial S is hitting the fan and he's at risk. If anyone in Russia had the ability to take him out, it's probably within the military and FSB.

Just dark sarcasm on my part though I would guess that Russian leadership views all three of those groups as entirely disposable

I think any pyrophoric material would work well.

Captain Positivity said:

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Could be some scapegoating to pass the blame for this "operation" onto the intelligence service.

But more than likely he's trying to root out opposition within the government because he knows the proverbial S is hitting the fan and he's at risk. If anyone in Russia had the ability to take him out, it's probably within the military and FSB.

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There were reports of anti-Putin FSB sources passing info to the Ukrainians and press. I wonder if they sent some false stories through to see who would bite and try to pass them along. May have been what the chem weapons rumors were about...smoking out the moles.

Pretty good evidence that the crashed Russian fighter inside Belarus was a Russian SU-34.

(Could also be a SU-24) https://t.co/MMh8TFaVHU

— OSINTtechnical (@Osinttechnical) March 11, 2022

Rooting out a coup?

Russia finally getting involved posting some "victories"? Although the hit looks like it may be against an empty and stuck vehicle.

Second video from the pro-Russia Semyon Pegov showing 9M113 ATGM launches at Ukrainian positions. 2/https://t.co/de1199geoM pic.twitter.com/2cw4YTJyW2

— Rob Lee (@RALee85) March 11, 2022

WarGonzo has been reporting from the front lines the whole time. You just typically don't see it posted by western accounts (and obviously not pro-Ukraine accounts either).

Latest vid. Posted 2 hours ago.

The first things these militias liberate after destroying a city is all the appliances pic.twitter.com/veyupsaLyH

— Lost Weapons (@LostWeapons) March 11, 2022

aggiehawg said:

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BQ78 said:

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Rooting out a coup?

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Or full blown paranoia has set in.

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Both?

New video of a Ukrainian TB2 UCAV strike on a Russian vehicle. Looks like a EW or C2 variant of a Ural truck. Reportedly in the Kyiv direction. https://t.co/7UOAfjHV2W pic.twitter.com/aXnWzVQgun

— Rob Lee (@RALee85) March 11, 2022

Reportedly a Video of one of the recent Ukrainian Counteroffensives over the last few days, a couple of things of Note 1st of all Ukrainian Forces appear to be equipped with Very Expensive High-Tech Night Vision Equipment which would explain how they are able to Operate at night. pic.twitter.com/s9ICuyh3fE

— OSINTdefender (@sentdefender) March 11, 2022

ATX_AG_08 said:

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The first things these militias liberate after destroying a city is all the appliances pic.twitter.com/veyupsaLyH

— Lost Weapons (@LostWeapons) March 11, 2022

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That largely tracks with the supposed intercepted phone calls from Russian soldiers back to family in Russia. What they are planning on bringing home from the war.

Partial Source, President Biden and Prime Minister Johnson have already said they Support Poland in giving MiGs to Ukraine which Russia says would lead to War, though they will not directly give the MiGs to Ukraine themselves.https://t.co/wvphoJ5cii

— OSINTdefender (@sentdefender) March 11, 2022

Target seems to be about a mile away.

Rossticus said:

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Gentlemen, is Pe-Paw feeling spicy?

This seems to me like a Green Light to Countries like Poland and Romania to directly Support Ukraine if they wish and that The United States will have their back.

— OSINTdefender (@sentdefender) March 11, 2022

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May potentially line up with the Patriot missile batteries in Poland. If Russia pushes too far, does Poland enter the fray - like if Belarus lends material support by actually having troops cross into Ukraine.

Since last Sat it's been relatively stable on the fronts. There is an expectation of a reforming of RU units and a new line of attack, but so far little evidence of it. "If Russia doesn't achieve a remarkable advance by end of week, difficult to see how it should come at all."

— Holger Roonemaa (@holger_r) March 11, 2022

JUST IN: Russia is "bogged down" on northeastern advance toward Kyiv from the isolated city of Cherniv, less than 90 miles from Ukraine's capital: senior U.S. defense official

— Jack Detsch (@JackDetsch) March 11, 2022

I have seen a lot of videos where Russian troops get contacted and their first reaction is to flee, even if they are in a tank. Their old tactic was to stay and fight no matter how many they lost, looks like they do not have the leadership to enforce this.

Russia was already a dying economy before this, partly because the average age of death is earlier than retirement age. The country is in bad shape and losing so many may have put a nail in the coffin.

VitruvianAg said:

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Ulysses90 said:

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Faustus said:

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https://www.nytimes.com/live/2022/03/11/world/ukraine-russia-news

Quote:

---

. . .
Ukraine's most sophisticated attack drone is about as stealthy as a crop duster: slow, low-flying and completely defenseless. So when the Russian invasion began, many experts expected the few drones that the Ukrainian forces managed to get off the ground would be shot down in hours.

But more than two weeks into the conflict, Ukraine's drones Turkish-made Bayraktar TB2 models that buzz along at about half the speed of a Cessna are not only still flying, they also shoot guided missiles at Russian missile launchers, tanks and supply trains, according to Pentagon officials.

The drones have become a sort of lumbering canary in the war's coal mine, a sign of the astonishing resiliency of the Ukrainian defense forces and the larger problems that the Russians have encountered.

"The performance of the Russian military has been shocking," said David A. Deptula, a retired three-star Air Force general who planned the U.S. air campaigns in Afghanistan in 2001 and the Persian Gulf in 1991. "Their failure to secure air superiority has been reflected by their slow and ponderous actions on the ground. Conversely, the Ukrainian air force performing better than expected has been a big boost to the morale of the entire country."
. . .
Before Russia invaded Ukraine, Bayraktar TB2s were already punching above their weight. The drones, with a 39-foot wingspan, are assembled in Turkey but rely extensively on electronics made in the United States and Canada. A growing number of countries in Africa, the Middle East and Europe have bought them because, at about $2 million apiece, they are much cheaper than manned combat aircraft.
. . .
But military planners and civilian experts cautioned that the drones which have no self-defense systems, are easily spotted by radar and cruise at only about 80 miles an hour would be sitting ducks for Russia's many-layered air defense system. Russian forces have long-range cruise missiles that can destroy the drones on the ground, short-range missile systems that can easily knock them out of the air, and electronic jammers that can block the drones' communications, leaving them to drop lifeless from the sky.

"Even with the drones' record of success, everyone expected that, once they really faced the full gamut of Russian defenses, they would stand no chance," said Lauren Kahn, who studies drone warfare at the New York-based Council on Foreign Relations. Their survival and continued use "is really raising questions about the Russians' capabilities," she said.

Pentagon officials remain puzzled by the Russians' failure to dominate the skies over Ukraine, at least so far. Moscow built up sophisticated missile defenses and air power on Ukraine's borders, but it has not been using them effectively to complement its ground forces, U.S. officials and analysts said. And Ukrainian air defenses have been surprisingly effective at downing Russian aircraft.

"We aren't seeing the level of integration between air and ground operations that you would expect to see," John F. Kirby, the chief Pentagon spokesman, said on Monday. "Not everything they're doing on the ground is fully being supported by what they're doing in the air. There does seem to be some disconnect there."
. . .
"It is so perplexing, and no one is quite sure what went wrong," said Samuel Bendett, an expert on the Russian military at the Center for a New American Security, a Washington-based research group. "Russia has a large number of drones, and the assumption was they would be using them for strikes," he said. "That assumption has been completely undone."
. . .
Without air superiority, the Russian offensive has been bogged down, claiming little new territory in recent days while losses mount. The Pentagon estimated on Wednesday that 5,000 to 6,000 Russian troops had been killed, and observers said the number of tanks, missile launchers and trucks that Russia had lost ran into the hundreds.

At the start of the war, Ukraine had five to 20 Bayraktar TB2s in service. Russia claims to have shot down several of them, and it is unclear how many remain. Still, Ukraine continues to release video images that appear to show the drones destroying Russian vehicles.

Air superiority is seen as a critical first step in modern warfare, and armed forces spend a great deal of time and money trying to ensure that they can quickly dominate the skies when fighting starts. Strategists studying Russia assumed that it would immediately use missile strikes to destroy Ukraine's air force and surface-to-air missile batteries before they could be used, and then move in scores of fighter jets, radar jammers and missile trucks to take control of Ukraine's air space. With air superiority established, Russia could freely use its fighters, bombers and drones to annihilate the Ukrainian military.

That has not happened.

In the first days of the invasion, the Russian military appeared to hold back much of its air power, perhaps assuming that the Ukrainian military would not put up much of a fight. Instead, Russian forces met stiff resistance; when they tried to move in mobile missile launchers and electronic warfare vehicles to control the airspace, the convoys were ambushed by Ukrainians before they could reach the fight.

"It's certainly not the way we would prosecute an air campaign," said Michael Kofman, the director of Russia studies at C.N.A., a defense research institute in Arlington, Va.

"But then again, this war didn't start the way the Russian military organizes and trains to fight, either," he said. "It was a bungled regime-change operation that became a war they didn't really plan for."

But lack of a quick victory for Russia did not mean victory for Ukraine, Mr. Kofman added, noting that Ukraine continues to lose aircraft to Russian missiles, and that it was not possible to glean the true state of the air war from official statements and news reports alone.
. . .

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Granted that a MQ-1 Predator was never designed to operate in a high threat environment for enemy SAMs or fighters because it was originally intended to be a surveillance platform until the CIA proved it had potential for hauling PGMs when they killed Anwar al Awlaki in Yemen. The Bayraktar flies as fast as a Predator and has a higher ceiling. Bayraktar has a smaller payload than a Predator but it has four pylons vice two for the Pred. The Predators sold by the US to other countries cost ~$20MM while the Bayraktars sell for $11.5MM.

https://armedforces.eu/compare/drones_Bayraktar_TB2_vs_General_Atomics_MQ-1_Predator

The Bayraktars are effective because the Russian air defense isn't.

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Which begs the question about the Israelis and a certain Persian Nuclear Program....and my understanding is that Iranian Air Defenses are Russian, no?

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I was speaking to a friend in the UK who has lived in Russia and was an analyst of Soviet and Russian military. She said that the absence of the most modern Russian weapons from Ukraine is because the export of those systems has been a cash cow for the RF government. To generate revenue, they are selling the new models, especially of air defense, before equipping the Russian army. It's interesting to consider how that need for weapons export revenue and limited funding may have contributed to hollowing out the Russian army.

Unsure how they'll do that if they've sold it all off but I guess we'll see where this leads. Russia escalates when and where they want to despite western perception that their reticence will prevent escalation.

BREAKING: Russia pledges to supply Belarus with the most up-to-date military equipment

— Samuel Ramani (@SamRamani2) March 11, 2022

Quote:

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I was speaking to a friend in the UK who has lived in Russia and was an analyst of Soviet and Russian military. She said that the absence of the most modern Russian weapons from Ukraine is because the export of those systems has been a cash cow for the RF government. To generate revenue, they are selling the new models, especially of air defense, before equipping the Russian army. It's interesting to consider how that need for weapons export revenue and limited funding may have contributed to hollowing out the Russian army.

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I had wondered about that as being an issue as well. That the manufacturing capabilities within Russia itself to support arms sales and modernization of their own military a the same time were lacking.

Subsequent information has shown that manufacturing is indeed an issue for many things in Russia.

P.U.T.U said:

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Rossticus said:

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BREAKING: Russia pledges to supply Belarus with the most up-to-date military equipment

— Samuel Ramani (@SamRamani2) March 11, 2022

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Like all of the weapon systems we have seen their guys carrying like WW2 stuff? Scary

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Where are they going to get it? From China?

And it would have to be older Chinese stuff since they no longer use the AK based stuff.