Robk said:

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agent-maroon said:

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Robk said:

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another post about Russia's attack on Belarus

Russian aviation struck the territory of Belarus on March 11. Russian planes shelled the village of Kopani.

Reported by the Command of the Air Force of the AFU.

Earlier, the MoD warned about this type of provocations to engage Belarus in war.

Ukraine did NOT attack Belarus!

— Iuliia Mendel (@IuliiaMendel) March 11, 2022

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Wouldn't the Belarus military know this to be true already?

Wouldn't think that a false flag bombing of Belarus would do anything positive to motivate a military already dealing with outright mutinies against fighting Russia's war with Ukraine. Would assume the exact opposite actually.

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a desperate hail mary? turn people against ukraine? Hopefully like everything else Putin has done it will backfire and send those troops to oust lushenko before turning to help ukraine.

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It's very hard to separate out propaganda from fact when it comes to morale in Belarus but the only reason for them not to have joined the war in my opinion is that the military has more or less mutinied and told Lushie that if they go (in) he goes (6 ft under).

wangus12 said:

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VaultingChemist said:

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Ukraine still has 56 operational fighter jets in its inventory and the Ukraine Air Force is still flying 5-10 sorties a day: senior US defense official.

— Jennifer Griffin (@JenGriffinFNC) March 11, 2022

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Our defense guys need to stop publicizing all the little assets that the Ukes have.

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I have not seen a shred of evidence that there is any truth to this.

If you just look at the wording here alone in the statement. "ukraine still has 56 operational aircraft but only flying 5-10 sorties a day" That alone doesn't make any sense to me. Lets just say operationally you can fly 2 sorties a day per aircraft, that number should then be 112 sorties a day. If your only flying 5-10 sorties a day, WTF are the other aircraft doing but sitting on the ground much more vulnerable than if they were in the air.

If you say he meant to say 5-10 sorties per aircraft then on the conservative end thats 280 runs and both we and the russians would be seeing significant evidence of this either through destruction of equipment on the ground or russia priority targeting anything that could support operational aircraft.

The truth likely is they are running the Bayraktar drone(s) 5-10X a day and we are seeing some evidence of that on the very lowest end of numbers and that would make sense since its payload is about 300lbs basically limiting it to one shot flights on armor, against personnel it could do 2-3 drops per flight.

Interesting look at Russia's losses.

So the latest Ukrainian military stats on Russian losses are out and I decided to do a little compare-and-contrast exercise between what Kyiv says and what @oryxspioenkop has verified so far with respect to destroyed, damaged, captured or abandoned units.

— Michael Weiss 🌻🇺🇸🇮🇪 (@michaeldweiss) March 11, 2022

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1502203487685328898.html

Just because you have operational aircraft doesn't mean you're operating them all at full tilt. There are plenty of constraints beyond having the aircraft themselves, like fuel, maintenance, pilots, ground crews, bombs, etc.

ABATTBQ11 said:

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VaultingChemist said:

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Spoofing a flight labeled FCKPUTIN.

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From the AN-225 no less

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Too soon

Agsuffering@bulaw said:

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NATO/ the west is already the big winner long term whatever happens in Ukraine. Cold, but true.

In no particular order:
-Russia losing tons of gear they cannot replace anytime soon
-Russia has lost a bunch of flag and field officers
-Russia will suffer 10-20k deaths and a lot more casualties
-NATO got a chance to study the performance of all Russian gear
-NATO got to study their tactics
-RU ability to project power is greatly diminished going forward
-CCP probably greatly reassessing their strength

ETA: this will create instability in RU, even if they "win."

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I would add one key challenge for Russia going forward. Their arms sales to India, Vietnam, and all other current buyers. Not only will production be shifted to replenish Russian losses, their equipment and maintenance supply challenges should sway upcoming purchase or renewal decisions. Especially India.

Oh and don't buy tires from China

Quote:

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I would add one key challenge for Russia going forward. Their arms sales to India, Vietnam, and all other current buyers. Not only will production be shifted to replenish Russian losses, their equipment and maintenance supply challenges should sway upcoming purchase or renewal decisions. Especially India.

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No doubt their customers will be willing to pay a premium over the regular price given the strong performance of their weapons in actual combat conditions.

deddog said:

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ABATTBQ11 said:

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VaultingChemist said:

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Spoofing a flight labeled FCKPUTIN.

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From the AN-225 no less

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Too soon

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Gone but not forgotten

wangus12 said:

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VaultingChemist said:

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Ukraine still has 56 operational fighter jets in its inventory and the Ukraine Air Force is still flying 5-10 sorties a day: senior US defense official.

— Jennifer Griffin (@JenGriffinFNC) March 11, 2022

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Our defense guys need to stop publicizing all the little assets that the Ukes have.

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Is the info accurate or disinformation?

🗺️🇺🇦 Ukrainian forces liberated a settlement of Viktorivka, #Chernihiv Region #Ukraine #UkraineRussiaWar pic.twitter.com/w0CtBvINro

— MilitaryLand.net (@Militarylandnet) March 11, 2022

What are they going to do when they are encircled and cut off?

If this is an old school siege they'll eventually succumb. Nato can't get shipments of supplies or weapons in.

Yeah, I'd really like to know that because if that is true, sending the Mig-29s to Ukraine says this is more about the west poking Putin in the eye than giving the Ukrainians what they need. If they are only flying 5-10 sorties a day giving them 30 more planes is probably not going to increase that and they'll have 30 more planes they have to hide until they can be used. Better to leave them in the west until they are ever needed.

evan_aggie said:

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What are they going to do when they are encircled and cut off?

If this is an old school siege they'll eventually succumb. Nato can't get shipments of supplies or weapons in.

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Shoot in every direction. They can't miss.

The warning came following an alleged Russian attack at Belarussian territory from Ukrainian air space. Russian forces have already used Belarus as a staging ground for its invasion of Ukraine.

— The Kyiv Independent (@KyivIndependent) March 11, 2022

ETA:

Our subscribers send us a video of a column of equipment moving towards #Brest (Belarusian-Polish border) pic.twitter.com/DO9N8XuEVU

— NEXTA (@nexta_tv) March 11, 2022

*UKRAINE'S KULEBA: ZERO PROGRESS IN TALKS WITH RUSSIA THURSDAY

— *Walter Bloomberg (@DeItaone) March 11, 2022

UKRAINE'S FOREIGN MINISTER KULEBA: A MEETING BETWEEN PUTIN AND ZELENSKIY WOULD BE HELPFUL.

— Breaking News | FinancialJuice (@Financialjuice1) March 11, 2022

UKRAINE'S FOREIGN MINISTER KULEBA: UKRAINE'S NEUTRALITY MUST BE ACCOMPANIED BY SECURITY ASSURANCES

— Breaking News | FinancialJuice (@Financialjuice1) March 11, 2022

Rossticus said:

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Russia isn't even giving these guys a chance. Holy eff. It's like they knocked over a museum.

Мобики или резервисты #1ак #роа (возможно, снято несколько дней назад). В качестве снаряги и оружия раздали древнее говно - всё равно им помирать, чего тратиться? https://t.co/gmxQCzobEj pic.twitter.com/3opFheZODB

— Necro Mancer (@666_mancer) March 10, 2022

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In the first few seconds of the video you can see on the ground it looks like they have a Degtyaryov Single Shot Anti-Tank Weapon System Model 1941!!

LMCane said:

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Rossticus said:

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Russia isn't even giving these guys a chance. Holy eff. It's like they knocked over a museum.

Мобики или резервисты #1ак #роа (возможно, снято несколько дней назад). В качестве снаряги и оружия раздали древнее говно - всё равно им помирать, чего тратиться? https://t.co/gmxQCzobEj pic.twitter.com/3opFheZODB

— Necro Mancer (@666_mancer) March 10, 2022

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In the first few seconds of the video you can see on the ground it looks like they have a Degtyaryov Single Shot Anti-Tank Weapon System Model 1941!!

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Crazy. I wonder just how much in the Russian "inventory" isn't there or is coming from Storehouses that date back 50 years.

BQ78 said:

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Yeah, I'd really like to know that because if that is true, sending the Mig-29s to Ukraine says this is more about the west poking Putin in the eye than giving the Ukrainians what they need. If they are only flying 5-10 sorties a day giving them 30 more planes is probably not going to increase that and they'll have 30 more planes they have to hide until they can be used. Better to leave them in the west until they are ever needed.

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Less poking him in the eye than calling Putin's bluff.

He isn't going to lob nukes over a few migs. He isn't going to attack nato because he knows it will be the end of his forces. Nato/eu/the west needs to find a more proactive way to test putin as he is calling every shot.

Major internet disruption registered in Chernihiv, northern Ukraine, amid reports of new air strikes; real-time network data show a collapse in connectivity that is likely to limit coverage of events on the ground https://t.co/NGBk4D0ems via @netblocks #Ukraine pic.twitter.com/GJ06zLLC9M

— Liveuamap (@Liveuamap) March 11, 2022

Tied with Belarus entering the conflict?

Red Pear Realty said:

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If the Kremlin is seeking out foreign fighters from Syria, Africa, etc....you know they are getting desperate. Coupled with the announcement that 16,000 Russian volunteers are going to the Ukraine, that tells me they are getting to the end of their rope if that's all they could scrounge up.

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I have been reading this not as 16,000 Russian volunteers..

but 16,000 volunteers from the Middle East who would be fighting on the side of the Russians.

That Putin is telling his military to transfer them from Libya and Syria to the Ukrainian front.

Agthatbuilds said:

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Major internet disruption registered in Chernihiv, northern Ukraine, amid reports of new air strikes; real-time network data show a collapse in connectivity that is likely to limit coverage of events on the ground https://t.co/NGBk4D0ems via @netblocks #Ukraine pic.twitter.com/GJ06zLLC9M

— Liveuamap (@Liveuamap) March 11, 2022

Tied with Belarus entering the conflict?

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Doubtful but not 100%

Agthatbuilds said:

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Major internet disruption registered in Chernihiv, northern Ukraine, amid reports of new air strikes; real-time network data show a collapse in connectivity that is likely to limit coverage of events on the ground https://t.co/NGBk4D0ems via @netblocks #Ukraine pic.twitter.com/GJ06zLLC9M

— Liveuamap (@Liveuamap) March 11, 2022

Tied with Belarus entering the conflict?

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This is NE of Kyiv. Belarus would probably come in NW of Kyiv.

https://www.nytimes.com/live/2022/03/11/world/ukraine-russia-news

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. . .
Ukraine's most sophisticated attack drone is about as stealthy as a crop duster: slow, low-flying and completely defenseless. So when the Russian invasion began, many experts expected the few drones that the Ukrainian forces managed to get off the ground would be shot down in hours.

But more than two weeks into the conflict, Ukraine's drones Turkish-made Bayraktar TB2 models that buzz along at about half the speed of a Cessna are not only still flying, they also shoot guided missiles at Russian missile launchers, tanks and supply trains, according to Pentagon officials.

The drones have become a sort of lumbering canary in the war's coal mine, a sign of the astonishing resiliency of the Ukrainian defense forces and the larger problems that the Russians have encountered.

"The performance of the Russian military has been shocking," said David A. Deptula, a retired three-star Air Force general who planned the U.S. air campaigns in Afghanistan in 2001 and the Persian Gulf in 1991. "Their failure to secure air superiority has been reflected by their slow and ponderous actions on the ground. Conversely, the Ukrainian air force performing better than expected has been a big boost to the morale of the entire country."
. . .
Before Russia invaded Ukraine, Bayraktar TB2s were already punching above their weight. The drones, with a 39-foot wingspan, are assembled in Turkey but rely extensively on electronics made in the United States and Canada. A growing number of countries in Africa, the Middle East and Europe have bought them because, at about $2 million apiece, they are much cheaper than manned combat aircraft.
. . .
But military planners and civilian experts cautioned that the drones which have no self-defense systems, are easily spotted by radar and cruise at only about 80 miles an hour would be sitting ducks for Russia's many-layered air defense system. Russian forces have long-range cruise missiles that can destroy the drones on the ground, short-range missile systems that can easily knock them out of the air, and electronic jammers that can block the drones' communications, leaving them to drop lifeless from the sky.

"Even with the drones' record of success, everyone expected that, once they really faced the full gamut of Russian defenses, they would stand no chance," said Lauren Kahn, who studies drone warfare at the New York-based Council on Foreign Relations. Their survival and continued use "is really raising questions about the Russians' capabilities," she said.

Pentagon officials remain puzzled by the Russians' failure to dominate the skies over Ukraine, at least so far. Moscow built up sophisticated missile defenses and air power on Ukraine's borders, but it has not been using them effectively to complement its ground forces, U.S. officials and analysts said. And Ukrainian air defenses have been surprisingly effective at downing Russian aircraft.

"We aren't seeing the level of integration between air and ground operations that you would expect to see," John F. Kirby, the chief Pentagon spokesman, said on Monday. "Not everything they're doing on the ground is fully being supported by what they're doing in the air. There does seem to be some disconnect there."
. . .
"It is so perplexing, and no one is quite sure what went wrong," said Samuel Bendett, an expert on the Russian military at the Center for a New American Security, a Washington-based research group. "Russia has a large number of drones, and the assumption was they would be using them for strikes," he said. "That assumption has been completely undone."
. . .
Without air superiority, the Russian offensive has been bogged down, claiming little new territory in recent days while losses mount. The Pentagon estimated on Wednesday that 5,000 to 6,000 Russian troops had been killed, and observers said the number of tanks, missile launchers and trucks that Russia had lost ran into the hundreds.

At the start of the war, Ukraine had five to 20 Bayraktar TB2s in service. Russia claims to have shot down several of them, and it is unclear how many remain. Still, Ukraine continues to release video images that appear to show the drones destroying Russian vehicles.

Air superiority is seen as a critical first step in modern warfare, and armed forces spend a great deal of time and money trying to ensure that they can quickly dominate the skies when fighting starts. Strategists studying Russia assumed that it would immediately use missile strikes to destroy Ukraine's air force and surface-to-air missile batteries before they could be used, and then move in scores of fighter jets, radar jammers and missile trucks to take control of Ukraine's air space. With air superiority established, Russia could freely use its fighters, bombers and drones to annihilate the Ukrainian military.

That has not happened.

In the first days of the invasion, the Russian military appeared to hold back much of its air power, perhaps assuming that the Ukrainian military would not put up much of a fight. Instead, Russian forces met stiff resistance; when they tried to move in mobile missile launchers and electronic warfare vehicles to control the airspace, the convoys were ambushed by Ukrainians before they could reach the fight.

"It's certainly not the way we would prosecute an air campaign," said Michael Kofman, the director of Russia studies at C.N.A., a defense research institute in Arlington, Va.

"But then again, this war didn't start the way the Russian military organizes and trains to fight, either," he said. "It was a bungled regime-change operation that became a war they didn't really plan for."

But lack of a quick victory for Russia did not mean victory for Ukraine, Mr. Kofman added, noting that Ukraine continues to lose aircraft to Russian missiles, and that it was not possible to glean the true state of the air war from official statements and news reports alone.
. . .

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VaultingChemist said:

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Ukraine still has 56 operational fighter jets in its inventory and the Ukraine Air Force is still flying 5-10 sorties a day: senior US defense official.

— Jennifer Griffin (@JenGriffinFNC) March 11, 2022

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That post is encouraging because they have that many "assets" in terms of air frames but concerning because of the low sortie generation rate. If they are flying only 20% of their airframes that raises questions about whether additional MiGs would do them any good right now.

Sortie generation rate depends on a lot of factors but from this short list you can probably figure out why they are not flying that much. I'll make a bold assumption that a lack of targets isn't one of the reasons.

1. Available planes
2. Available pilots
3. Available airfields
4. Available fuel
5. Available ordnance
6. Available maintenance and repair parts
7. Enabling conditions (jamming enemy radars, neutralizing SAMs, avoiding enemy fighter overmatch)

It seems that they probably have the available planes, pilots, airfields, and ordnance for the time being. My guess is that it the enabling conditions, repair parts, and fuel that are keeping the UAF from being a much larger factor in this fight. I would also venture that it's the lack of enablers that is most responsible for the UAF not attempting to kill the RF artillery.

Help UAF generate sorties faster by providing them with the ability to neutralize the RF radar and SAMs and the UAF could help break some of these sieges.