***Russian - Ukraine War Tactical and Strategic Updates*** [Warning on OP]

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Ag In Ok
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Not at all - Putin grabs two ports and tries to level several cities. That's it from what i gather. Peace treaty (likely broken by the Russians within a few months or years) and the Ukes cede some land.
Rossticus
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As if this couldn't get any weirder…

Not a Bot
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FriscoKid said:

CNN seems to think that Russians are 8-9 miles away from the center of Kiev right now. They have been wrong a lot in the past couple weeks, but they have contacts in our intelligence agencies that are probably feeding them stuff to publish.

IF there really are troops moving on the capitol then daybreak might be interesting. If the Russians roll into the capitol then it will be a disaster for them.
This info is from US Dept of Defense. Probably reliable. The closest they are to city center is on the west side in area of Hostomel. They've pushed forward a few miles.
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LostInLA07 said:

CNN sucks with domestic coverage but they have been on point with international coverage in Afghanistan and now Ukraine. I wish they could apply the same journalistic skills to what happens within our borders.


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ATX_AG_08
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Captain Positivity said:

FriscoKid said:

CNN seems to think that Russians are 8-9 miles away from the center of Kiev right now. They have been wrong a lot in the past couple weeks, but they have contacts in our intelligence agencies that are probably feeding them stuff to publish.

IF there really are troops moving on the capitol then daybreak might be interesting. If the Russians roll into the capitol then it will be a disaster for them.
This info is from US Dept of Defense. Probably reliable. The closest they are to city center is on the west side in area of Hostomel. They've pushed forward a few miles.


In that video I posted guy says the Ukrainians actually gained ground in areas of Kyiv today. I don't know his sources but you can tell they're deep. Overall it sounds like it was a good day for the Ukrainians.
GigEmRangers75455
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ATX_AG_08 said:




The only videos I enjoy more than this guys updates are the videos of Russian forces being blown up.
Fitch
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Nm
TRM
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Claverack
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Rossticus said:

As if this couldn't get any weirder…


Seeing the League of Russian Scum getting together just makes me wonder why the hell we aren't getting our act together and getting the Ukrainians outfitted with the Polish MiGs.

The Russians are the ones who invaded and the ones who have escalated.

The mixed messaging from this White House recalls their confusion in Afghanistan. It does not serve our interests well either in Ukraine or with our NATO allies in eastern Europe.
Waffledynamics
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Red Pear Realty said:

LostInLA07 said:

CNN sucks with domestic coverage but they have been on point with international coverage in Afghanistan and now Ukraine. I wish they could apply the same journalistic skills to what happens within our borders.



What's Marco's Tweet about? "They forgot to look behind them"? What did I miss?
clw04
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Waffledynamics said:

Red Pear Realty said:

LostInLA07 said:

CNN sucks with domestic coverage but they have been on point with international coverage in Afghanistan and now Ukraine. I wish they could apply the same journalistic skills to what happens within our borders.



What's Marco's Tweet about? "They forgot to look behind them"? What did I miss?
My guess is that Rubio is hinting that there are Ukrainian forces at the rear of the Russian close to Kyiv ready to ambush,
Beat40
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Stlkofta said:

Rossticus said:

As if this couldn't get any weirder…


Seeing the League of Russian Scum getting together just makes me wonder why the hell we aren't getting our act together and getting the Ukrainians outfitted with the Polish MiGs.

The Russians are the ones who invaded and the ones who have escalated.

The mixed messaging from this White House recalls their confusion in Afghanistan. It does not serve our interests well either in Ukraine or with our NATO allies in eastern Europe.


I feel like I've read both Poland and the US say it would take multi months to have the planes even ready to give the Ukes as they would have to remove NATO equipment to even have the planes at an operable enough level for the Ukes to be effective. Also there was the issue of fueling them.

I get the idea it's much more complicated than just sending the planes in.

Somehow this has become the sticking point for the US and NATO to show they're doing enough. I think reality is these planes wouldn't even be ready in time to be super effective and don't increase the chance of Ukraine winning much at all. I think Zelensky is asking for them knowing if we send them, it greatly increases the chances the US and NATO enter the war, which I don't blame him for doing. From reading, it doesn't sound like it makes much strategic sense as far as effectiveness.

I'd argue the intelligence we've shared with Ukraine is far more valuable than the MiGs.

I honestly think our political class knows and agrees with the above and is just using this MiG issue to score political capital.

This is the article I read:
https://www.wsj.com/articles/mig-combat-jets-spark-squabble-within-nato-over-helping-ukraine-11646854872

" To some the idea was always a nonstarter. "Turning a NATO jet into something Ukrainians could fly would mean ripping out hugely complicated systems," an American defense industry official in Poland said. Warsaw upgraded its MiGs with systems so allies could identify the planes as friendly and to communicate securely, he said, noting that some of that equipment isn't transferred beyond the alliance and would have to be removed from the planes before handing them to the Ukrainians.

"If there were a plan to do so, this would be at least a multi-month project, even operating at warp speed," he said."
TRM
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They're going to cut off their supply line and encircle that southern portion of the force near Kyiv .
aezmvp
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clw04 said:

Waffledynamics said:

Red Pear Realty said:

LostInLA07 said:

CNN sucks with domestic coverage but they have been on point with international coverage in Afghanistan and now Ukraine. I wish they could apply the same journalistic skills to what happens within our borders.



What's Marco's Tweet about? "They forgot to look behind them"? What did I miss?
My guess is that Rubio is hinting that there are Ukrainian forces at the rear of the Russian close to Kyiv ready to ambush,
The Ukes may be about to cut off and surround one of the big probes from the East at s really tricky spot. Right now that group is supplied down one road thst is in Uke artillery range.
deddog
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Siap
Teddy KGB
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I have complete confidence in the Russian Army's ability to conduct complex military operations in an urban environment.

War is Peace Freedom is Slavery Ignorance is Strength
Waffledynamics
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clw04 said:

Waffledynamics said:

Red Pear Realty said:

LostInLA07 said:

CNN sucks with domestic coverage but they have been on point with international coverage in Afghanistan and now Ukraine. I wish they could apply the same journalistic skills to what happens within our borders.



What's Marco's Tweet about? "They forgot to look behind them"? What did I miss?
My guess is that Rubio is hinting that there are Ukrainian forces at the rear of the Russian close to Kyiv ready to ambush,
I really hope he's not hinting at such a thing. Let that stuff happen and don't tip off the Russians.
Claverack
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Beat40 said:

Stlkofta said:

Rossticus said:

As if this couldn't get any weirder…


Seeing the League of Russian Scum getting together just makes me wonder why the hell we aren't getting our act together and getting the Ukrainians outfitted with the Polish MiGs.

The Russians are the ones who invaded and the ones who have escalated.

The mixed messaging from this White House recalls their confusion in Afghanistan. It does not serve our interests well either in Ukraine or with our NATO allies in eastern Europe.


I feel like I've read both Poland and the US say it would take multi months to have the planes even ready to give the Ukes as they would have to remove NATO equipment to even have the planes at an operable enough level for the Ukes to be effective. Also there was the issue of fueling them.

I get the idea it's much more complicated than just sending the planes in.

Somehow this has become the sticking point for the US and NATO to show they're doing enough. I think reality is these planes wouldn't even be ready in time to be super effective and don't increase the chance of Ukraine winning much at all. I think Zelensky is asking for them knowing if we send them, it greatly increases the chances the US and NATO enter the war, which I don't blame him for doing. From reading, it doesn't sound like it makes much strategic sense as far as effectiveness.

I'd argue the intelligence we've shared with Ukraine is far more valuable than the MiGs.

I honestly think our political class knows and agrees with the above and is just using this MiG issue to score political capital.
Given the performance and ability demonstrated by the Russian Air Force, I would think the opportunity to give Ukrainian pilots the chance to fly planes they have more familiarity with is too good to pass up.

If you can increase Ukrainian strength in the air, then you diminish still further the Russian capability to control what goes on in the air.

A consistent approach on this issue was required the minute someone first conceived the idea.

I don't think the Poles are the problem here, nor are the barriers you mentioned an issue for the Ukrainians.

But we've seen our political leaders at work in this situation before and we have seen them fail in just this way with regard to supplying the Afghan Air Force and ANASOF.

They wanted to invade and in doing so have thrown in forces and arms from partner nations. Make them pay for it by giving the Ukes what they need to fight.

If they fight alone, then so be it.

But give them a fighting chance to gain more control of what goes on in the air.

ATX_AG_08
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clw04
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Stlkofta said:

Beat40 said:

Stlkofta said:

Rossticus said:

As if this couldn't get any weirder…


Seeing the League of Russian Scum getting together just makes me wonder why the hell we aren't getting our act together and getting the Ukrainians outfitted with the Polish MiGs.

The Russians are the ones who invaded and the ones who have escalated.

The mixed messaging from this White House recalls their confusion in Afghanistan. It does not serve our interests well either in Ukraine or with our NATO allies in eastern Europe.


I feel like I've read both Poland and the US say it would take multi months to have the planes even ready to give the Ukes as they would have to remove NATO equipment to even have the planes at an operable enough level for the Ukes to be effective. Also there was the issue of fueling them.

I get the idea it's much more complicated than just sending the planes in.

Somehow this has become the sticking point for the US and NATO to show they're doing enough. I think reality is these planes wouldn't even be ready in time to be super effective and don't increase the chance of Ukraine winning much at all. I think Zelensky is asking for them knowing if we send them, it greatly increases the chances the US and NATO enter the war, which I don't blame him for doing. From reading, it doesn't sound like it makes much strategic sense as far as effectiveness.

I'd argue the intelligence we've shared with Ukraine is far more valuable than the MiGs.

I honestly think our political class knows and agrees with the above and is just using this MiG issue to score political capital.
Given the performance and ability demonstrated by the Russian Air Force, I would think the opportunity to give Ukrainian pilots the chance to fly planes they have more familiarity with is too good to pass up.

If you can increase Ukrainian strength in the air, then you diminish still further the Russian capability to control what goes on in the air.

A consistent approach on this issue was required the minute someone first conceived the idea.

I don't think the Poles are the problem here, nor are the barriers you mentioned an issue for the Ukrainians.

But we've seen our political leaders at work in this situation before and we have seen them fail in just this way with regard to supplying the Afghan Air Force and ANASOF.

They wanted to invade and in doing so have thrown in forces and arms from partner nations. Make them pay for it by giving the Ukes what they need to fight.

If they fight alone, then so be it.

But give them a fighting chance to gain more control of what goes on in the air.


I read what I think is a pretty valid point. The US has said that the Ukrainians still have a significant number of their planes. The planes aren't flying a lot because Russia has S-400s all around the borders that can cover a 250 mile radius. The statement was that the MIGs weren't going to help Ukraine because flying them where they want to fly them would be suicide with the S-400s.
JB!98
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Stlkofta said:

Beat40 said:

Stlkofta said:

Rossticus said:

As if this couldn't get any weirder…


Seeing the League of Russian Scum getting together just makes me wonder why the hell we aren't getting our act together and getting the Ukrainians outfitted with the Polish MiGs.

The Russians are the ones who invaded and the ones who have escalated.

The mixed messaging from this White House recalls their confusion in Afghanistan. It does not serve our interests well either in Ukraine or with our NATO allies in eastern Europe.


I feel like I've read both Poland and the US say it would take multi months to have the planes even ready to give the Ukes as they would have to remove NATO equipment to even have the planes at an operable enough level for the Ukes to be effective. Also there was the issue of fueling them.

I get the idea it's much more complicated than just sending the planes in.

Somehow this has become the sticking point for the US and NATO to show they're doing enough. I think reality is these planes wouldn't even be ready in time to be super effective and don't increase the chance of Ukraine winning much at all. I think Zelensky is asking for them knowing if we send them, it greatly increases the chances the US and NATO enter the war, which I don't blame him for doing. From reading, it doesn't sound like it makes much strategic sense as far as effectiveness.

I'd argue the intelligence we've shared with Ukraine is far more valuable than the MiGs.

I honestly think our political class knows and agrees with the above and is just using this MiG issue to score political capital.
Given the performance and ability demonstrated by the Russian Air Force, I would think the opportunity to give Ukrainian pilots the chance to fly planes they have more familiarity with is too good to pass up.

If you can increase Ukrainian strength in the air, then you diminish still further the Russian capability to control what goes on in the air.

A consistent approach on this issue was required the minute someone first conceived the idea.

I don't think the Poles are the problem here, nor are the barriers you mentioned an issue for the Ukrainians.

But we've seen our political leaders at work in this situation before and we have seen them fail in just this way with regard to supplying the Afghan Air Force and ANASOF.

They wanted to invade and in doing so have thrown in forces and arms from partner nations. Make them pay for it by giving the Ukes what they need to fight.

If they fight alone, then so be it.

But give them a fighting chance to gain more control of what goes on in the air.


I think we are seeing our ideas on air superiority changed right in front of our eyes. Give the Ukes more manpads and advanced AA. They can at least keep RU from getting control of the air. The Russians cannot control the skies if the Ukes can make them pay for sorties against their cities and assets.

I don't think there are any two circle fights going on between RU and Uke fighters or would there be if the Ukes had more aircraft.
Today, unfortunately, many Americans have good reason to fear that they will be victimized if they are unable to protect themselves. And today, no less than in 1791, the Second Amendment guarantees their right to do so. - Justice Samuel Alito 2022
Beat40
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I added the quote from the article I read. If it would really take multi-months to have them ready, it might be over by then.

I don't know the validity of the multi-month statement from the article I read, so I'll let some of you more knowledgable guys denounce that.

Just my read on the entire situation is that US and NATO don't think the idea is strategically effective.

This stuff just reads as trying to earn goodwill to me more than an actual play.
Beat40
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JB!98 said:

Stlkofta said:

Beat40 said:

Stlkofta said:

Rossticus said:

As if this couldn't get any weirder…


Seeing the League of Russian Scum getting together just makes me wonder why the hell we aren't getting our act together and getting the Ukrainians outfitted with the Polish MiGs.

The Russians are the ones who invaded and the ones who have escalated.

The mixed messaging from this White House recalls their confusion in Afghanistan. It does not serve our interests well either in Ukraine or with our NATO allies in eastern Europe.


I feel like I've read both Poland and the US say it would take multi months to have the planes even ready to give the Ukes as they would have to remove NATO equipment to even have the planes at an operable enough level for the Ukes to be effective. Also there was the issue of fueling them.

I get the idea it's much more complicated than just sending the planes in.

Somehow this has become the sticking point for the US and NATO to show they're doing enough. I think reality is these planes wouldn't even be ready in time to be super effective and don't increase the chance of Ukraine winning much at all. I think Zelensky is asking for them knowing if we send them, it greatly increases the chances the US and NATO enter the war, which I don't blame him for doing. From reading, it doesn't sound like it makes much strategic sense as far as effectiveness.

I'd argue the intelligence we've shared with Ukraine is far more valuable than the MiGs.

I honestly think our political class knows and agrees with the above and is just using this MiG issue to score political capital.
Given the performance and ability demonstrated by the Russian Air Force, I would think the opportunity to give Ukrainian pilots the chance to fly planes they have more familiarity with is too good to pass up.

If you can increase Ukrainian strength in the air, then you diminish still further the Russian capability to control what goes on in the air.

A consistent approach on this issue was required the minute someone first conceived the idea.

I don't think the Poles are the problem here, nor are the barriers you mentioned an issue for the Ukrainians.

But we've seen our political leaders at work in this situation before and we have seen them fail in just this way with regard to supplying the Afghan Air Force and ANASOF.

They wanted to invade and in doing so have thrown in forces and arms from partner nations. Make them pay for it by giving the Ukes what they need to fight.

If they fight alone, then so be it.

But give them a fighting chance to gain more control of what goes on in the air.


I think we are seeing our ideas on air superiority changed right in front of our eyes. Give the Ukes more manpads and advanced AA. They can at least keep RU from getting control of the air. The Russians cannot control the skies if the Ukes can make them pay for sorties against their cities and assets.

I don't think there are any two circle fights going on between RU and Uke fighters or would there be if the Ukes had more aircraft.


I also think the Turkish drones have had a lot of success too. Honestly feel the drones in this situation are more effective than the MiGs anyway.
JB!98
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I think one other thing that this war has shown is that Ivan has no real ability to conduct SEAD/DEAD operations. We have been working on that since Korea/Vietnam. Just very strange that they cannot control that airspace.
Today, unfortunately, many Americans have good reason to fear that they will be victimized if they are unable to protect themselves. And today, no less than in 1791, the Second Amendment guarantees their right to do so. - Justice Samuel Alito 2022
FriscoKid
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Red Pear Realty said:

LostInLA07 said:

CNN sucks with domestic coverage but they have been on point with international coverage in Afghanistan and now Ukraine. I wish they could apply the same journalistic skills to what happens within our borders.




Rubio would probably have inside information here. Again, it seems like daybreak might be a BFD. I hope Putin's army gets their ass kicked like I think they will. If he goes nuclear or chemical then I think the world reacts and neutralizes this POS.
ATX_AG_08
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ATX_AG_08
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Rossticus
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FriscoKid
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Russia/Putin is going to lose this "war". You can't lose this many vehicles, planes, troops, etc and still think you can beat the world. The Ukrainians are dug in around the capitol and it's fixing to be a bloodbath if they enter.
TRM
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I'm sure Russia has some in storage and it really doesn't make sense to be that far off. The only thing I can think of is Russia sent it through west Ukraine as a decoy so they could carry out strikes on the western cities they hit today.
Rossticus
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FriscoKid said:

Russia/Putin is going to lose this "war". You can't lose this many vehicles, planes, troops, etc and still think you can beat the world. The Ukrainians are dug in around the capitol and it's fixing to be a bloodbath if they enter.


Don't think they enter. Goal is a good ol medieval style siege. Cut off supplies and lob in rockets and artillery until everyone surrenders or everyone dies.
ATX_AG_08
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Rossticus said:

FriscoKid said:

Russia/Putin is going to lose this "war". You can't lose this many vehicles, planes, troops, etc and still think you can beat the world. The Ukrainians are dug in around the capitol and it's fixing to be a bloodbath if they enter.


Don't think they enter. Goal is a good ol medieval style siege. Cut off supplies and lob in rockets and artillery until everyone surrenders or everyone dies.


This is the reality. If the city is surrounded and the supply lines shut off, it's over. Mariupol has been surrounded under siege for 6 days. Have to be running out ammo and supplies. Ukraine is going to have to go on some offenses to stay in this thing. Even if they are costly, at least you can see and fight the enemy instead of a slow death under siege.
sharpdressedman
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Putin's threats regarding use of nuclear weapons have NATO cowering in fear. He has successfully deterred NATO from taking any additional action(s) that NATO believes may provoke him. He is presently the alpha leader in this war. JMO
Rossticus
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moldaggie
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Reminder, it is much easier to take land than to keep it.
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