***Russian - Ukraine War Tactical and Strategic Updates*** [Warning on OP]

7,632,700 Views | 47864 Replies | Last: 5 hrs ago by LMCane
AlaskanAg99
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LostInLA07 said:

I don't think they are estimating he has lost 5% of his military. Just 5% of the forces committed to Ukraine. Also, I agree that unfortunately Putin will likely prefer to level cities vs. try to occupy them. He doesn't have the troop count needed for that. He'd much rather shell the cities until everyone has either left or is dead and then walk in to whatever is left.
That's what I meant, 5% of forces sent to Ukraine. But as others have mentioned, an occupying force comprised of people that aren't highly motivated is going to cause all sorts of problems. But that just brings up: What is the end goal. With tens of thousands going into Ukraine to fight, this war won't be as easy as Putin had expected.

Than and the damage being done via official sanctions and companies simply exiting Russia will have his own population revolting. Don't know how he's going to spin the whole world is filled with Nazis.

But he'll never see the Hague. And the most terrifying thing I read is "If there is a world with out Russia, there's no reason to have a world." Hopefully there are massive efforts to reach those along the chain of command if nuke orders are ever issued to stop people from actually launching. Missile boats are the real problem, even if they're being shadowed and tracked, taking them out will also cause an environmental disaster.
aggiehawg
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Quote:

Missile boats are the real problem, even if they're being shadowed and tracked, taking them out will also cause an environmental disaster.
Agree. I am much more concerned about the boomers.
Rossticus
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Rossticus
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aezmvp
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Rossticus said:


I don't think the Uke supply chain could realistically supply such and effort without, at a minimum retaking the Tokmak airstrip area and re-securing a good portion of the T-05-18 and H-08 roads and isolating those major Russian probes. That would be very, very difficult. I doubt the Russians would leave the rail line they currently occupy intact and allow that be and option to supply such an opperation.
RebelE Infantry
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Rossticus said:




Their problem is that there are no reinforcements.
TacosaurusRex
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Keegan99 said:

Cause?



I think this is important, not just for this conflict, but to show the Chinese. If the Chinese invade Taiwan all of the American property and businesses they have been buying up could be frozen
Rossticus
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TRM
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TRM
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Some of you mentioned doing this in other parts of the country.
Rossticus
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Rossticus
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JFABNRGR
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aezmvp said:

LostInLA07 said:

I don't think they are estimating he has lost 5% of his military. Just 5% of the forces committed to Ukraine. Also, I agree that unfortunately Putin will likely prefer to level cities vs. try to occupy them. He doesn't have the troop count needed for that. He'd much rather shell the cities until everyone has either left or is dead and then walk in to whatever is left.
They have lost well more than 5%. I'd estimate closer to 20% but at least 10-15% at a minimum. Their armored forces have lost that much in just visually (photo, video) verified equipment. Go search Oryx on twitter or go to https://www.oryxspioenkop.com/ to find the lists.
Lets keep on the forefront that poor training, poor maintenance, poor tactics and even a loss of 75% of equipment deployed in Ukraine would not keep them from continuing with the massive destruction on cities and their inhabitants.

The talk from our peeps that additional aircraft would not help and or that the Uke aircraft is mostly still operationally effective I just don't see. The video posted today of the column that retreated today with only one armor piece destroyed that at one point was all bunched up is a good representation of current Uke capabilities. Yes we have seen an entire artillery battery destroyed and some successes with the B drone but its one weapon per sortie on armor.

In order for Ukraine to survive this with anything still standing its going to take a lot more outside help or something drastic to happen to putin.

I would sure like to see 50-75+ smoldering pieces of steel at the lead of each front (but let one retreat each place), hoping that puts the fear of God in the rest and the tuck tail and run back to wherever they came from. I don't care how that gets done and I don't mind if our name is on it 100% or 50%. At this same time russia is being told the sanctions will be lifted as soon as you depart and make arrangements for reparations, which could include a tarriff on their O&G sales to germany, since their so hungry for it.
Hoyt Ag
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Wish there was a way to take that money and fund the Ukes somehow.
TRM
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Ag In Ok
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TRM said:





Did the Ukes push the Russians off of their main NW Kiev supply line or are the punching up from the south, forcing them west?
JFABNRGR
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TRM said:


This is mostly likely a repel against a recon foot patrol, which is not a good sign for things to come especially if this is Kyiv.
jobu93
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Okay, casualty rate....

Russia went in with 160,000 troops.
Let's say 25% were trigger pullers so that is 40,000.
Estimates of dead are anywhere from 5000 to 11,000 thus far. x2 for WIA.

Even thinking that 20% of the KIA are the trigger pullers, that is still 1000 dead and 2000 wounded.
7.5% casualty rate of warfighters.

I think the numbers on the rate are probably low; I've not even accounted for desertion/POW.

Aside from logistics they are bleeding themselves white with the realy warfighters.
TRM
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I think they're still on the same line. Russia has been branching out further west from that main line.
JB!98
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oldmanguy said:

Okay, casualty rate....

Russia went in with 160,000 troops.
Let's say 25% were trigger pullers so that is 40,000.
Estimates of dead are anywhere from 5000 to 11,000 thus far. x2 for WIA.

Even thinking that 20% of the KIA are the trigger pullers, that is still 1000 dead and 2000 wounded.
7.5% casualty rate of warfighters.

I think the numbers on the rate are probably low; I've not even accounted for desertion/POW.

Aside from logistics they are bleeding themselves white with the realy warfighters.
I would like to understand the loss of armor and logistics better in regard to what they had available. I think that is the lynch pin to the whole deal. Ivan wandering around with an AK is not as big of a threat as armor etc.
Today, unfortunately, many Americans have good reason to fear that they will be victimized if they are unable to protect themselves. And today, no less than in 1791, the Second Amendment guarantees their right to do so. - Justice Samuel Alito 2022
E
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Rossticus said:


I found what this used to look like on google maps...

Teddy Perkins
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Rossticus said:


Wow! A+ photography skills.
Faustus
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Running list of companies that have announced they are closing shop or halting sales in Russia.
Goldman Sachs is the latest.

https://www.nytimes.com/article/russia-invasion-companies.html
(Too long to cut and paste)
TRM
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It's Kyiv Oblast, so it's pretty sizable not the city Kyiv.
ABATTBQ11
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The Debt said:

Rossticus said:



Is he admitting US troops in Ukraine


No. He's saying it would have an impact on civilians and we'd send in US troops equipped to handle chemical attacks as a response.
Rossticus
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Mariupol catching hell. Over 1300 civs killed as of today. Isjum practically leveled. Heavy civ casualties there as well, as one would imagine.
jobu93
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JB!98 said:

oldmanguy said:

Okay, casualty rate....

Russia went in with 160,000 troops.
Let's say 25% were trigger pullers so that is 40,000.
Estimates of dead are anywhere from 5000 to 11,000 thus far. x2 for WIA.

Even thinking that 20% of the KIA are the trigger pullers, that is still 1000 dead and 2000 wounded.
7.5% casualty rate of warfighters.

I think the numbers on the rate are probably low; I've not even accounted for desertion/POW.

Aside from logistics they are bleeding themselves white with the realy warfighters.
I would like to understand the loss of armor and logistics better in regard to what they had available. I think that is the lynch pin to the whole deal. Ivan wandering around with an AK is not as big of a threat as armor etc.


Me too, but I have no idea what the start point on armor, air, logistical assets were.
Robk
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Keegan99 said:

Cause?

I think that is part, but I would bet there are also some high level military that do not want to be the scapegoat. Look at his conscripts statement. Going to have to pin that on someone. Oligarchs and military working together is what it will take to rid Russia of him.
TRM
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PJYoung
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JB!98
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PJYoung said:


If true, who would have thought that the Ukes would be able to go on the offensive at this point? Hope its true and they have let the Russians over extend themselves.
Today, unfortunately, many Americans have good reason to fear that they will be victimized if they are unable to protect themselves. And today, no less than in 1791, the Second Amendment guarantees their right to do so. - Justice Samuel Alito 2022
Ag In Ok
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The purge may be complete
lb3
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JB!98 said:

PJYoung said:


If true, who would have thought that the Ukes would be able to go on the offensive at this point? Hope its true and they have let the Russians over extend themselves.
I'll believe it when I see it. I still expect Russia to "win" but if the Ukranians can still maneuver large formations, that's a great sign.
LostInLA07
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Seems like the Ukrainians can hold the north but the southern cities don't seem to be holding up as well. The situation will become a lot more difficult if Russian forces in the south are able to begin pushing north towards Kyiv.
74OA
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lb3 said:

JB!98 said:

PJYoung said:


If true, who would have thought that the Ukes would be able to go on the offensive at this point? Hope its true and they have let the Russians over extend themselves.
I'll believe it when I see it. I still expect Russia to "win" but if the Ukranians can still maneuver large formations, that's a great sign.
Ukraine is a country of 41M. 11M of which are males aged 15 to 54. Even if half of those men are unavailable for whatever reason, that's still millions of motivated fighters available to feed into the fight.

Fresh bodies isn't the limiting factor for Ukraine, equipment and training are, but every day that passes provides more western aid, more captured Russian gear and more on-the-job combat experience for those fighters.

Russia needs to get this done soon, imo.
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