Worth a separate post. I think it would be time to start withdrawing and countering from that kessel/cauldron in the extreme Southeast and NW of Kyiv. Leave lots of partisans but those areas are going to be cut off and surrounded in the next 48 hours.

Russia digging in at the Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant.

Russian occupiers, who seized Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant, mined off the coast of Kakhovka Reservoir bordering the nuclear power plant.–Energoatom, 16:30 EEThttps://t.co/6qDRKu7w9C pic.twitter.com/F4s1YWGVrV

— Euromaidan Press (@EuromaidanPress) March 10, 2022

fair point. You are right about the command structure.

Yep I have tracked multiple C17 and even C5 loads out of hood, campbell and every other major base eastbound and double triple that from Germany to Poland/Romania. A few even refueling in the air over the east coast before crossing the pond.

Our buddy, God Bless him, is the right guy, in the right place, at this time. Should the need arise, hopefully senior leadership allows him to lead as he sees fit given his extensive combat experience.

RebelE Infantry said:

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mickeyrig06sq3 said:

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benchmark said:

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David Wallace said:

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The Russian forces might be able to surround Kiev, but I don't see how they maintain it.

As we have seen, the Ukrainians have had successful counter-attacks to retake positions lost.

I think its more probable that the Russian forces get their supply chain cut off and they slowly get eliminated.

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Most likely scenario IMO ... Russia will surround and cut off both Kiev and Odessa from resupply. Fast forward 3-4 weeks and both cities are humanitarian disasters and everything east of the Dnieper and along the coast are consolidated and effectively under Russian control. Russian supply lines are then mostly re-established.

Yes, there will still be an ongoing active resistance but nothing that threatens their grip. This is when Russia's negotiating leverage will be at it's peak.

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And if Ukraine is cutting off the same supply lines to the encircling forces, they're going to experience the same thing. Up to this point, they've been pretty good at doing that. Russia's zone of control between the border and Kyev isn't the best.

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I think Ukraine is harassing supply lines instead of cutting them off proper. To actually cut off supply lines you need maneuver elements to take and hold roads and bridges or have total air superiority. They have neither.

Still causes a lot of headaches for the Russians though.

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I probably should have said disrupted instead of cutting off. Cause enough havoc to make vehicles run out of gas, and troops to go hungry. Enough disruption to potentially kill morale, and make a long term siege difficult. I'm curious if we'd be ballsy enough to pull a Berlin Airlift, and drop food into Kyev to keep the local population fed. Iffy on how Russia would react.

aggiehawg said:

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Assuming that is true, seems it would be a lot easier to get special forces saboteurs into Russia and Belarus to wreak havoc behind their lines.

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Ukraine has to maintain their position of a purely defensive victim. The moral high ground. It's why they're releasing all of the POW interviews and have that hotline. Hard to paint the enemy as a bunch of morally corrupt Nazis if they maintain that public image.

mickeyrig06sq3 said:

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RebelE Infantry said:

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mickeyrig06sq3 said:

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benchmark said:

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David Wallace said:

---

The Russian forces might be able to surround Kiev, but I don't see how they maintain it.

As we have seen, the Ukrainians have had successful counter-attacks to retake positions lost.

I think its more probable that the Russian forces get their supply chain cut off and they slowly get eliminated.

---

Most likely scenario IMO ... Russia will surround and cut off both Kiev and Odessa from resupply. Fast forward 3-4 weeks and both cities are humanitarian disasters and everything east of the Dnieper and along the coast are consolidated and effectively under Russian control. Russian supply lines are then mostly re-established.

Yes, there will still be an ongoing active resistance but nothing that threatens their grip. This is when Russia's negotiating leverage will be at it's peak.

---

And if Ukraine is cutting off the same supply lines to the encircling forces, they're going to experience the same thing. Up to this point, they've been pretty good at doing that. Russia's zone of control between the border and Kyev isn't the best.

---

I think Ukraine is harassing supply lines instead of cutting them off proper. To actually cut off supply lines you need maneuver elements to take and hold roads and bridges or have total air superiority. They have neither.

Still causes a lot of headaches for the Russians though.

---

I probably should have said disrupted instead of cutting off. Cause enough havoc to make vehicles run out of gas, and troops to go hungry. Enough disruption to potentially kill morale, and make a long term siege difficult. I'm curious if we'd be ballsy enough to pull a Berlin Airlift, and drop food into Kyev to keep the local population fed. Iffy on how Russia would react.

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A) No we are not that ballsy and you are talking feeding 750,000 minimum. B) Russians would shoot at those aircraft.

aezmvp said:

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Worth a separate post. I think it would be time to start withdrawing and countering from that kessel/cauldron in the extreme Southeast and NW of Kyiv. Leave lots of partisans but those areas are going to be cut off and surrounded in the next 48 hours.

---

Very good point. That they haven't yet may suggest degradation in the Ukrainian C&C capabilities. By the end of the day it may be too late.

aezmvp said:

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mickeyrig06sq3 said:

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RebelE Infantry said:

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mickeyrig06sq3 said:

---

benchmark said:

---

David Wallace said:

---

The Russian forces might be able to surround Kiev, but I don't see how they maintain it.

As we have seen, the Ukrainians have had successful counter-attacks to retake positions lost.

I think its more probable that the Russian forces get their supply chain cut off and they slowly get eliminated.

---

Most likely scenario IMO ... Russia will surround and cut off both Kiev and Odessa from resupply. Fast forward 3-4 weeks and both cities are humanitarian disasters and everything east of the Dnieper and along the coast are consolidated and effectively under Russian control. Russian supply lines are then mostly re-established.

Yes, there will still be an ongoing active resistance but nothing that threatens their grip. This is when Russia's negotiating leverage will be at it's peak.

---

And if Ukraine is cutting off the same supply lines to the encircling forces, they're going to experience the same thing. Up to this point, they've been pretty good at doing that. Russia's zone of control between the border and Kyev isn't the best.

---

I think Ukraine is harassing supply lines instead of cutting them off proper. To actually cut off supply lines you need maneuver elements to take and hold roads and bridges or have total air superiority. They have neither.

Still causes a lot of headaches for the Russians though.

---

I probably should have said disrupted instead of cutting off. Cause enough havoc to make vehicles run out of gas, and troops to go hungry. Enough disruption to potentially kill morale, and make a long term siege difficult. I'm curious if we'd be ballsy enough to pull a Berlin Airlift, and drop food into Kyev to keep the local population fed. Iffy on how Russia would react.

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A) No we are not that ballsy and you are talking feeding 750,000 minimum. B) Russians would shoot at those aircraft.

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The (B) is the ballsy part. You're definitely not going to send in a bunch of C-17's unescorted. It's not a full no fly zone, but you'd have to enforce protection. With Russia controlling their internal narrative, if they were to attempt a shoot down, we hit their air defense sites, and then it potentially becomes a "US has entered the conflict, gloves are off" moment.

Not sure if this was posted yet

92AG10 said:

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maverick2076 said:

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Rossticus said:

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If the Russians actually use chemical weapons against the Ukrainian civilian population it would produce catastrophic lethality. Chemical munitions not effective against equipped US troops. Terrible impact on civilians. Predict we would enter the war.

— Barry R McCaffrey (@mccaffreyr3) March 10, 2022

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He is significantly underestimating the negative impact of chemical weapons on equipped troops.

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He is a retired US Army 4 star that commanded an infantry division in Desert Storm.

Of course, it depends on the chemical…..but even basic military equipment is better than an unprotected civilian.

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Good for him. I'm a current active duty E8 who specifically works in the CBRN environment every day. Threats have evolved since Desert Storm, and CBRN training in most units is not emphasized like it was 30 years ago. The statement that chemical weapons would not be effective on equipped troops is absolutely laughable. Even without getting into specifics of vulnerabilities, suit breakthrough, etc. chemical warfare places massive strain on individual warfighters, units' abilities to accomplish objectives, and on the logistics chains as they attempt to resupply PPE through contaminated areas.

Hold. That. Line. #Ukraine #Putin #WarCrimes https://t.co/ds7S3yq2pg

— Slava Ukraine 🇺🇦 (@lives_ukraine) March 10, 2022

RebelE Infantry said:

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aezmvp said:

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Worth a separate post. I think it would be time to start withdrawing and countering from that kessel/cauldron in the extreme Southeast and NW of Kyiv. Leave lots of partisans but those areas are going to be cut off and surrounded in the next 48 hours.

---

Very good point. That they haven't yet may suggest degradation in the Ukrainian C&C capabilities. By the end of the day it may be too late.

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From what I've seen with Russian OPSEC I don't think those lines will be very tight for at least a day or two. Just IMO.

We have to be giving them some great intel to pull off things like this

Those things are also probably one of the most expensive weapons in the Russian ground arsenal. Not a cheap loss.

mickeyrig06sq3 said:

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aezmvp said:

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mickeyrig06sq3 said:

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RebelE Infantry said:

---

mickeyrig06sq3 said:

---

benchmark said:

---

David Wallace said:

---

The Russian forces might be able to surround Kiev, but I don't see how they maintain it.

As we have seen, the Ukrainians have had successful counter-attacks to retake positions lost.

I think its more probable that the Russian forces get their supply chain cut off and they slowly get eliminated.

---

Most likely scenario IMO ... Russia will surround and cut off both Kiev and Odessa from resupply. Fast forward 3-4 weeks and both cities are humanitarian disasters and everything east of the Dnieper and along the coast are consolidated and effectively under Russian control. Russian supply lines are then mostly re-established.

Yes, there will still be an ongoing active resistance but nothing that threatens their grip. This is when Russia's negotiating leverage will be at it's peak.

---

And if Ukraine is cutting off the same supply lines to the encircling forces, they're going to experience the same thing. Up to this point, they've been pretty good at doing that. Russia's zone of control between the border and Kyev isn't the best.

---

I think Ukraine is harassing supply lines instead of cutting them off proper. To actually cut off supply lines you need maneuver elements to take and hold roads and bridges or have total air superiority. They have neither.

Still causes a lot of headaches for the Russians though.

---

I probably should have said disrupted instead of cutting off. Cause enough havoc to make vehicles run out of gas, and troops to go hungry. Enough disruption to potentially kill morale, and make a long term siege difficult. I'm curious if we'd be ballsy enough to pull a Berlin Airlift, and drop food into Kyev to keep the local population fed. Iffy on how Russia would react.

---

A) No we are not that ballsy and you are talking feeding 750,000 minimum. B) Russians would shoot at those aircraft.

---

The (B) is the ballsy part. You're definitely not going to send in a bunch of C-17's unescorted. It's not a full no fly zone, but you'd have to enforce protection. With Russia controlling their internal narrative, if they were to attempt a shoot down, we hit their air defense sites, and then it potentially becomes a "US has entered the conflict, gloves are off" moment.

---

We are not going to get away with sending "Humanitarian aid." in with air drops or supply runs to contested air fields with air cover unmolested. If you put combat aircraft into that airspace it will be tantamount to declaring war. You would be far better off saying you're putting a no-fly zone west of the Dnieper. That's more feasible and my guess on the actual feasibility is zero. Russians will either shoot at our aircraft from ground or engage in dogfights and it will get nasty quick.

I'm telling you our leadership and population does not have the stomach for what would follow. The Russians would absolutely use nuclear weapons at a minimum on US based forces in Poland and NATO forces in the Baltics. And then immediately seek de-escalation. Kaliningrad would get nuked in return at a minimum. I don't think that Russian performance so far indicates that they could handle a conventional force with real air superiority support. I think they would absolutely go nuclear right away. Tactically, not counterforce or a full first strike. But it would be awful and fast. This is a complete non-starter unless you are prepared to go all out.

aezmvp said:

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RebelE Infantry said:

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aezmvp said:

---

Worth a separate post. I think it would be time to start withdrawing and countering from that kessel/cauldron in the extreme Southeast and NW of Kyiv. Leave lots of partisans but those areas are going to be cut off and surrounded in the next 48 hours.

---

Very good point. That they haven't yet may suggest degradation in the Ukrainian C&C capabilities. By the end of the day it may be too late.

---

From what I've seen with Russian OPSEC I don't think those lines will be very tight for at least a day or two. Just IMO.

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You very well may be right. But the time to start the withdrawal is now and there's no sign of it. I figure they'd at least have to get to the West Bank of the Dnieper. That's a long way to go under fire.

Did some digging and it looks like Armenia purchased 4 Iskander systems from Russia for an estimated cost of $70-$100MM. Couple this with all the reported helicopters and migs going down, the costs keep piling up! Muhahaha

RebelE Infantry said:

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aezmvp said:

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RebelE Infantry said:

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aezmvp said:

---

Worth a separate post. I think it would be time to start withdrawing and countering from that kessel/cauldron in the extreme Southeast and NW of Kyiv. Leave lots of partisans but those areas are going to be cut off and surrounded in the next 48 hours.

---

Very good point. That they haven't yet may suggest degradation in the Ukrainian C&C capabilities. By the end of the day it may be too late.

---

From what I've seen with Russian OPSEC I don't think those lines will be very tight for at least a day or two. Just IMO.

---

You very well may be right. But the time to start the withdrawal is now and there's no sign of it. I figure they'd at least have to get to the West Bank of the Dnieper. That's a long way to go under fire.

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I don't think that far yet. I wouldn't give up Kharkiv and the central part. I think you try and extract as many troops and weapons as you can and disperse volunteer partisans into the population while stashing weapons/ammo/comms for those partisans. Those lines and regular formations aren't failing yet else where. But that extreme SE group north of Mariupol and the group around Chernihiv. Depends on actual ground conditions up there as it is very sketchy what the Russians actually control up there. If I was territorial defense I would absolutely be trying to cut off that probe by Pryluky and bottle up that attack. If you could squeeze their schwerpunkte there you could free a good supply chain back to that pocket that isn't as vulnerable to the other side of Kyiv.

Had we started from the beginning it would have been like the Berlin airlift. This is something different and we don't have the leadership to pull it off diplomatically. I trust we can do it militarily, though we best not brag about it like Kabul. And not Mariupol - i think the Russians are grinding their axe there.

Ag In Ok said:

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Had we started from the beginning it would have been like the Berlin airlift. This is something different and we don't have the leadership to pull it off diplomatically. I trust we can do it militarily, though we best not brag about it like Kabul. And not Mariupol - i think the Russians are grinding their axe there.

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Honestly with the Uke supply chain up and running still not much difference putting it in Poland atm. Later maybe.

aezmvp said:

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RebelE Infantry said:

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aezmvp said:

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Worth a separate post. I think it would be time to start withdrawing and countering from that kessel/cauldron in the extreme Southeast and NW of Kyiv. Leave lots of partisans but those areas are going to be cut off and surrounded in the next 48 hours.

---

Very good point. That they haven't yet may suggest degradation in the Ukrainian C&C capabilities. By the end of the day it may be too late.

---

From what I've seen with Russian OPSEC I don't think those lines will be very tight for at least a day or two. Just IMO.

---

I also think that when they do close, it'll be like a sieve. Smaller units will probably be able to get through.

Google says $11m. Also, don't put "su-25" into the Twitter search unless you want to see a nasty image of that dead pilot.

Red Pear Realty said:

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Google says $11m. Also, don't put "su-25" into the Twitter search unless you want to see a nasty image of that dead pilot.

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Only the crispy remains of the upper torso on fire in that photo. jeez!

Quote:

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Quote:

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Google says $11m. Also, don't put "su-25" into the Twitter search unless you want to see a nasty image of that dead pilot.

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Only the crispy remains of the upper torso on fire in that photo. jeez!

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Ukrainian Propaganda!
That was a doctored up Funko Pop!

You got me, I had to look up Funko Pop...

Teddy Perkins said:

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Russia digging in at the Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant.

Russian occupiers, who seized Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant, mined off the coast of Kakhovka Reservoir bordering the nuclear power plant.–Energoatom, 16:30 EEThttps://t.co/6qDRKu7w9C pic.twitter.com/F4s1YWGVrV

— Euromaidan Press (@EuromaidanPress) March 10, 2022

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They want the Ukrainians to try to retake it so if anything goes boom and releases radiation, the Russians can scream and yell that the Ukrainians caused it.

📽️Russian forces reportedly hit a gas pipeline near #Svitlodarsk #Ukraine #UkraineRussiaWar pic.twitter.com/xGrRSzK9IP

— MilitaryLand.net (@Militarylandnet) March 10, 2022

Russian senior leadership keeps stubbornly repeating the same lies, hoping enough gullible people will believe them. Not his time. This time Moscow lost the information campaign initiative from day one.

DELUSION