***Russian - Ukraine War Tactical and Strategic Updates*** [Warning on OP]

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TRM
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VaultingChemist
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If Russians are using unsecured communications, I would think Ukrainians would try and pinpoint location of top commanders near the combat areas.
TRM
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Not a Bot
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Lithuanian defense minister:

ATX_AG_08
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Rossticus said:




How do you surrender when you're not at war?
Corporal Punishment
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Quote:

Quote:

TRM said:
I think so, but I don't remember reading about it.


This is the pro-Ukrainian thread. No news about Russia's successes are allowed
I heard on some news network yesterday (can't remember which) that said the reason we're not seeing footage of destroyed Ukrainian forces is because the Rooskies aren't allowed to be carrying their smart phones with them. Commanders don't want them calling home or somesuch.

But yes, it's frustrating, as great as this thread is, that we get very little sense of whole picture.
RebelE Infantry
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Corporal Punishment said:

Quote:

Quote:

TRM said:
I think so, but I don't remember reading about it.


This is the pro-Ukrainian thread. No news about Russia's successes are allowed
I heard on some news network yesterday (can't remember which) that said the reason we're not seeing footage of destroyed Ukrainian forces is because the Rooskies aren't allowed to be carrying their smart phones with them. Commanders don't want them calling home or somesuch.

But yes, it's frustrating, as great as this thread is, that we get very little sense of whole picture.


On top of that most of the OSINT accounts are openly pro-Ukrainian and will not show Ukrainian losses or positions.

Like you said, very difficult to get a grasp on the situation.
IslanderAg04
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depogs said:

I can't believe my eyes. Even untrained Iraqi insurgents weren't this stupid when I was over there. One machine gun burst or one mortar team could take all these guys out.


It's like Stalingrad. Deaths dont matter to Russian oligarchs and dictators. They are just a number. It is however pissing off Russian mothers.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.foxnews.com/world/russian-mothers-reportedly-accuse-putin-of-using-sons-as-cannon-fodder-in-ukraine-invasion.amp
Charpie
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I got to my hotel last night very late. MSNBC apparently runs UK's Sky News. Talk about excellent coverage! It was like CNN with British accents. Plus they are telling the story of what's going on around Europe.
aggiehawg
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Charpie said:

I got to my hotel last night very late. MSNBC apparently runs UK's Sky News. Talk about excellent coverage! It was like CNN with British accents. Plus they are telling the story of what's going on around Europe.
Care to share some salient points?
Eliminatus
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Corporal Punishment said:

Quote:

Quote:

TRM said:
I think so, but I don't remember reading about it.


This is the pro-Ukrainian thread. No news about Russia's successes are allowed
I heard on some news network yesterday (can't remember which) that said the reason we're not seeing footage of destroyed Ukrainian forces is because the Rooskies aren't allowed to be carrying their smart phones with them. Commanders don't want them calling home or somesuch.

But yes, it's frustrating, as great as this thread is, that we get very little sense of whole picture.
OPSEC is at least part of it too. Ukraine asked from minute one to keep all details about Uke forces off the airwaves and that is something nearly everyone has acquiesced to. From the picture we are seeing form Russia, it is entirely possible they have no real idea of Uke force composition either with any certainty and the world would generally like to see that happen as well.

There are clear good guys and bad guys here in this war and the world has rallied for the cause. This is just as much an information war as it is a shooting one.
benchmark
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David Wallace said:

The Russian forces might be able to surround Kiev, but I don't see how they maintain it.

As we have seen, the Ukrainians have had successful counter-attacks to retake positions lost.

I think its more probable that the Russian forces get their supply chain cut off and they slowly get eliminated.
Most likely scenario IMO ... Russia will surround and cut off both Kiev and Odessa from resupply. Fast forward 3-4 weeks and both cities are humanitarian disasters and everything east of the Dnieper and along the coast are consolidated and effectively under Russian control. Russian supply lines are then mostly re-established.

Yes, there will still be an ongoing active resistance but nothing that threatens their grip. This is when Russia's negotiating leverage will be at it's peak.
JFABNRGR
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than the other one high tails it out of there passing other armor. I guess he got the msg.
JFABNRGR
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but only one destroyed vehicle. If there was ever a time for "fire for Effect" they could have created a natural steel roadblock against future advances.
aezmvp
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aggiehawg said:

Charpie said:

I got to my hotel last night very late. MSNBC apparently runs UK's Sky News. Talk about excellent coverage! It was like CNN with British accents. Plus they are telling the story of what's going on around Europe.
Care to share some salient points?
They have a live stream YouTube Channel in the states. When this started I watched their coverage b/c none of the US nets coverage would be decent.

They didn't have many people in country which was really surprising. I think a ton of people never thought they'd invade.
ATX_AG_08
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VaultingChemist
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RebelE Infantry said:

Corporal Punishment said:

Quote:

Quote:

TRM said:
I think so, but I don't remember reading about it.


This is the pro-Ukrainian thread. No news about Russia's successes are allowed
I heard on some news network yesterday (can't remember which) that said the reason we're not seeing footage of destroyed Ukrainian forces is because the Rooskies aren't allowed to be carrying their smart phones with them. Commanders don't want them calling home or somesuch.

But yes, it's frustrating, as great as this thread is, that we get very little sense of whole picture.


On top of that most of the OSINT accounts are openly pro-Ukrainian and will not show Ukrainian losses or positions.

Like you said, very difficult to get a grasp on the situation.
I saw one report that Ukrainian heavy armor losses were about the same percentage as the Russians.
Centerpole90
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Because you commented about it earlier in this thread…

Did you see announcement yesterday that AirCav was moving more of Operation Atlantic Resolve assets to Poland?
mickeyrig06sq3
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benchmark said:

David Wallace said:

The Russian forces might be able to surround Kiev, but I don't see how they maintain it.

As we have seen, the Ukrainians have had successful counter-attacks to retake positions lost.

I think its more probable that the Russian forces get their supply chain cut off and they slowly get eliminated.
Most likely scenario IMO ... Russia will surround and cut off both Kiev and Odessa from resupply. Fast forward 3-4 weeks and both cities are humanitarian disasters and everything east of the Dnieper and along the coast are consolidated and effectively under Russian control. Russian supply lines are then mostly re-established.

Yes, there will still be an ongoing active resistance but nothing that threatens their grip. This is when Russia's negotiating leverage will be at it's peak.
And if Ukraine is cutting off the same supply lines to the encircling forces, they're going to experience the same thing. Up to this point, they've been pretty good at doing that. Russia's zone of control between the border and Kyev isn't the best.
Brewskis
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France 24 and SkyNews have free love coverage on YouTube on the conflict. Blows the US coverage out of the water IMO.
RebelE Infantry
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VaultingChemist said:

RebelE Infantry said:

Corporal Punishment said:

Quote:

Quote:

TRM said:
I think so, but I don't remember reading about it.


This is the pro-Ukrainian thread. No news about Russia's successes are allowed
I heard on some news network yesterday (can't remember which) that said the reason we're not seeing footage of destroyed Ukrainian forces is because the Rooskies aren't allowed to be carrying their smart phones with them. Commanders don't want them calling home or somesuch.

But yes, it's frustrating, as great as this thread is, that we get very little sense of whole picture.


On top of that most of the OSINT accounts are openly pro-Ukrainian and will not show Ukrainian losses or positions.

Like you said, very difficult to get a grasp on the situation.
I saw one report that Ukrainian heavy armor losses were about the same percentage as the Russians.


Thanks. Makes sense and about what you'd expect in a near peer fight between modern armies.
RebelE Infantry
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mickeyrig06sq3 said:

benchmark said:

David Wallace said:

The Russian forces might be able to surround Kiev, but I don't see how they maintain it.

As we have seen, the Ukrainians have had successful counter-attacks to retake positions lost.

I think its more probable that the Russian forces get their supply chain cut off and they slowly get eliminated.
Most likely scenario IMO ... Russia will surround and cut off both Kiev and Odessa from resupply. Fast forward 3-4 weeks and both cities are humanitarian disasters and everything east of the Dnieper and along the coast are consolidated and effectively under Russian control. Russian supply lines are then mostly re-established.

Yes, there will still be an ongoing active resistance but nothing that threatens their grip. This is when Russia's negotiating leverage will be at it's peak.
And if Ukraine is cutting off the same supply lines to the encircling forces, they're going to experience the same thing. Up to this point, they've been pretty good at doing that. Russia's zone of control between the border and Kyev isn't the best.


I think Ukraine is harassing supply lines instead of cutting them off proper. To actually cut off supply lines you need maneuver elements to take and hold roads and bridges or have total air superiority. They have neither.

Still causes a lot of headaches for the Russians though.
PJYoung
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YouBet
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On the Bayraktar, while it's been highly effective in this theater, I'm assuming that's it's "average" in performance compared to what other western nations might have in the same class?
jobu93
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Agthatbuilds said:



Regarding Snipers...

Right now, I hope they have a lot of .50 BMG or some heavy caliber that can kill vehicles with a shot through the engine block. I think material destruction would probably be as good as or even perhaps better than offing officers. There is just a massive menue of vehicles a sniper could kill and maybe even elicit halting convoys.
Teddy Perkins
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Ag In Ok said:

Did hostemel and makariv (sp) both fall back to the Russians?


Map is from https://militaryland.net/ukraine/invasion-day-14-summary/.

It looks like Hostomel is contested but the airport is under Russian control. Makariv looks to still be under Ukrainian control.
ATX_AG_08
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jobu93
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YouBet said:

On the Bayraktar, while it's been highly effective in this theater, I'm assuming that's it's "average" in performance compared to what other western nations might have in the same class?
I dont' know about that. I'm a straight up civilian but that "budget" drone is killing tanks and HVTs. It's lethal enough. I'd say where it might fall short against one of ours is survivability and maybe loiter time. Our military tends to overdo things and this Bayraktar is a bare bones killer.

And exactly what's needed.
wangus12
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Yeah like someone said about the video of all the Russian vehicles under fire earlier, creating these massive vehicle road blocks with dead vehicles is a pretty dang good idea of the Ukes
Red Pear Realty
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PJYoung said:




It's an "economic special operation"
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Teddy Perkins
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ATX_AG_08
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aezmvp
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oldmanguy said:

Agthatbuilds said:



Regarding Snipers...

Right now, I hope they have a lot of .50 BMG or some heavy caliber that can kill vehicles with a shot through the engine block. I think material destruction would probably be as good as or even perhaps better than offing officers. There is just a massive menue of vehicles a sniper could kill and maybe even elicit halting convoys.
Powerful yes, but the Russian military is significantly more reliant on senior officers than most Western militaries. Every Lt. Col and above you eliminate will cause huge problems long term for them as they are unable to effectively respond on the ground especially with a degrading comms situation.
aggiehawg
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Assuming that is true, seems it would be a lot easier to get special forces saboteurs into Russia and Belarus to wreak havoc behind their lines.
TomFoolery
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aggiehawg said:



Assuming that is true, seems it would be a lot easier to get special forces saboteurs into Russia and Belarus to wreak havoc behind their lines.


In Russia the border crosses you
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