***Russian - Ukraine War Tactical and Strategic Updates*** [Warning on OP]

7,959,494 Views | 48542 Replies | Last: 13 hrs ago by Waffledynamics
PJYoung
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The Debt
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P.U.T.U said:

Irish 2.0 said:


To me this is Russia saying to the Uke citizens "we gave you a chance to leave, if you do not we are not at fault if you die from our weapon systems".

Well it's a way to get civilians out of harm's way, no? There is also the hope that with women and children leaving, their husbands would accompany them. If the husbands previously were militia, this would weaken defenses as fewer able bodied men lay down their weapons and protect the women.

What's the alternative? Just execute the attack and cause unnecessary bloodshed? Is that what either side wants?
TheCougarHunter
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Corridors from Ukrainian cities into Russia, where a train, bound for Siberia, will be waiting for them.
BusterAg
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Irish 2.0 said:


This is weak sauce.

They shut down Parler, and can't even shut off their current Russian customers?
The Debt
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FireAg said:

As the days go by, I think it's safe to say that Putin already has plenty of excuses to accuse the West of escalating things...the weapons NATO countries have supplied alone could easily be construed as escalation...

But so far, all Putin has done is bluster and threaten...

He knows he's battling the West in Ukraine already, and I don't think he was prepared for that, and frankly, I think he see's himself as stuck now...

As long as he gets kiev and the cauldron around the eastern military, he has accomplished what he intends. Russian pressure on Western Ukraine is just skirmishes to keep them from moving east. The fact that Ukrainian military (in the west) hasnt broken the encirclement of kiev tells me their ability to project is very limited or they have their hands full with Russian forces.

You would think resecuring kiev would be a priority for Ukrainian military, but it isn't.

If I had to guess how this plays out in the next 48 hours we learn the uk's eastern military has surrendered or died. The following 48 hrs we hear karkov has surrendered. Then the focus on kiev, and that will hold out for 72-96 hrs until Zelensky is found dead, either by assassination, OD, or suicide.
FireAg
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The Debt said:

FireAg said:

As the days go by, I think it's safe to say that Putin already has plenty of excuses to accuse the West of escalating things...the weapons NATO countries have supplied alone could easily be construed as escalation...

But so far, all Putin has done is bluster and threaten...

He knows he's battling the West in Ukraine already, and I don't think he was prepared for that, and frankly, I think he see's himself as stuck now...

As long as he gets kiev and the cauldron around the eastern military, he has accomplished what he intends. Russian pressure on Western Ukraine is just skirmishes to keep them from moving east. The fact that Ukrainian military (in the west) hasnt broken the encirclement of kiev tells me their ability to project is very limited or they have their hands full with Russian forces.

You would think resecuring kiev would be a priority for Ukrainian military, but it isn't.

If I had to guess how this plays out in the next 48 hours we learn the uk's eastern military has surrendered or died. The following 48 hrs we hear karkov has surrendered. Then the focus on kiev, and that will hold out for 72-96 hrs until Zelensky is found dead, either by assassination, OD, or suicide.
I'll predict that none of that happens in that timeframe...
Beat40
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I tend to agree. Using this as an opportunity to prep NATO nations with better equipment makes sense to me.

Why Cruz and Blinken are willing to inch closer to the line with providing Ukraine, a non-NATO nation, with jets doesn't make sense to me.
wangus12
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JFABNRGR said:

javajaws said:

Beat40 said:

74OA said:

JobSecurity said:

Yeah - how do we get planes from Germany to Ukraine? Seems like a very unnecessary complication
We don't. Poles fly MIGs to Ramstein AB.

Ukraine then sends pilots to Germany and they fly them into Ukraine with UAF markings already on them.

I assume we will remove any NATO sensitive equipment (IFF, crypto, ect.) beforehand.

Blinken tried to put the onus on Poland by saying the US was willing to replace Poland's MiGs if Poland were to get rid of the MiGs, and Poland is trying to put the onus back on US and include Germany by transferring the MiGs out of Poland.

It's clear no one wants to be the one left with the responsibly to get the MiGs into Ukraine because they all know Putin will see it as escalation and fear retaliation.

Cruz and Blinken broadcast the play before it happened. We have no plausible deniability at this point if those planes end up in Ukraine and Putin sees it as an escalation.

I think they are trying to include as many different parties in this shell game as possible since that would make punitive action by Putin all that much harder.
Well than we should just paint them several different colors starting with Russian & Belarus colors. Given all the captured russian armor on the ground, hand written lat longs on civilian GPS handhelds how will anybody know its not a russian friendly fire incident????
Don't want to do that. Ukes seem to be damn good at shooting Russian planes out of the air
12th Man Stan Account
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Poland really just said "These are yours now, we're not responsible. No taksies backsies!"
12th Man Stan Account
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This should help the Poles.
aggiehawg
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12th Man Stan Account said:


This should help the Poles.
And piss off Putin.
Irish 2.0
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aggiehawg said:

12th Man Stan Account said:


This should help the Poles.
And piss off Putin.
We're well beyond pissing off Putin. **** the guy. It is war and he started this ***** We're protecting our allies.
RebelE Infantry
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12th Man Stan Account said:


This should help the Poles.


This is Nuland punching back at Poland for blindsiding us with the Mig news
Charpie
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Taking Paler off of their servers is literally simple to do.

Removing every site/application in a very large country using their services would literally require alot of work.

Logistically, it isn't that simple.
4the_Record
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Quote:

Well it's a way to get civilians out of harm's way, no? There is also the hope that with women and children leaving, their husbands would accompany them. If the husbands previously were militia, this would weaken defenses as fewer able bodied men lay down their weapons and protect the women.

What's the alternative? Just execute the attack and cause unnecessary bloodshed? Is that what either side wants?

This doesn't in the least diminish Putin's, as well as each and every Russian soldier's, responsibility to restrict and contain collateral damage as much as possible.
RebelE Infantry
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Of note- Victoria Nuland was the architect of the US/NGO involvement in the 2014 unrest in Ukraine which installed a pro-western regime. This woman is bad news.
mickeyrig06sq3
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JFABNRGR said:

javajaws said:

Beat40 said:

74OA said:

JobSecurity said:

Yeah - how do we get planes from Germany to Ukraine? Seems like a very unnecessary complication
We don't. Poles fly MIGs to Ramstein AB.

Ukraine then sends pilots to Germany and they fly them into Ukraine with UAF markings already on them.

I assume we will remove any NATO sensitive equipment (IFF, crypto, ect.) beforehand.

Blinken tried to put the onus on Poland by saying the US was willing to replace Poland's MiGs if Poland were to get rid of the MiGs, and Poland is trying to put the onus back on US and include Germany by transferring the MiGs out of Poland.

It's clear no one wants to be the one left with the responsibly to get the MiGs into Ukraine because they all know Putin will see it as escalation and fear retaliation.

Cruz and Blinken broadcast the play before it happened. We have no plausible deniability at this point if those planes end up in Ukraine and Putin sees it as an escalation.

I think they are trying to include as many different parties in this shell game as possible since that would make punitive action by Putin all that much harder.
Well than we should just paint them several different colors starting with Russian & Belarus colors. Given all the captured russian armor on the ground, hand written lat longs on civilian GPS handhelds how will anybody know its not a russian friendly fire incident????
TRM
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rgag12
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The Debt said:

FireAg said:

As the days go by, I think it's safe to say that Putin already has plenty of excuses to accuse the West of escalating things...the weapons NATO countries have supplied alone could easily be construed as escalation...

But so far, all Putin has done is bluster and threaten...

He knows he's battling the West in Ukraine already, and I don't think he was prepared for that, and frankly, I think he see's himself as stuck now...

As long as he gets kiev and the cauldron around the eastern military, he has accomplished what he intends. Russian pressure on Western Ukraine is just skirmishes to keep them from moving east. The fact that Ukrainian military (in the west) hasnt broken the encirclement of kiev tells me their ability to project is very limited or they have their hands full with Russian forces.

You would think resecuring kiev would be a priority for Ukrainian military, but it isn't.

If I had to guess how this plays out in the next 48 hours we learn the uk's eastern military has surrendered or died. The following 48 hrs we hear karkov has surrendered. Then the focus on kiev, and that will hold out for 72-96 hrs until Zelensky is found dead, either by assassination, OD, or suicide.


I agree that that's probably the most likely outcome at this point, (other than Zelensky dying), but it's going to take weeks, not days.
4the_Record
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Quote:

Of note- Victoria Nuland was the architect of the US/NGO involvement in the 2014 unrest in Ukraine which installed a pro-western regime. This woman is bad news.

Yeah, why would we want a western leaning leader in Ukraine.

It not like Putin installed Yanukovych and the leadership flipped back and forth since the early 2000s... or that Putin had Yuschenko poisoned... or that Yanukovych was an authoritarian leader that violently suppressed protests in 2013 or anything...

Teddy KGB
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Not looking good for Urkraine.

War is Peace Freedom is Slavery Ignorance is Strength
Irish 2.0
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rgag12 said:

The Debt said:

FireAg said:

As the days go by, I think it's safe to say that Putin already has plenty of excuses to accuse the West of escalating things...the weapons NATO countries have supplied alone could easily be construed as escalation...

But so far, all Putin has done is bluster and threaten...

He knows he's battling the West in Ukraine already, and I don't think he was prepared for that, and frankly, I think he see's himself as stuck now...

As long as he gets kiev and the cauldron around the eastern military, he has accomplished what he intends. Russian pressure on Western Ukraine is just skirmishes to keep them from moving east. The fact that Ukrainian military (in the west) hasnt broken the encirclement of kiev tells me their ability to project is very limited or they have their hands full with Russian forces.

You would think resecuring kiev would be a priority for Ukrainian military, but it isn't.

If I had to guess how this plays out in the next 48 hours we learn the uk's eastern military has surrendered or died. The following 48 hrs we hear karkov has surrendered. Then the focus on kiev, and that will hold out for 72-96 hrs until Zelensky is found dead, either by assassination, OD, or suicide.


I agree that that's probably the most likely outcome at this point, (other than Zelensky dying), but it's going to take weeks, not days.
Not sure the Russian supply chain has weeks...
The Debt
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[There is a clear warning in the OP. -Staff]
Ducks4brkfast
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CondensedFoggyAggie said:

'Yes, we need hands': Kitchen pops up in Ukraine's capital


Quote:

The field kitchen at a makeshift camp in Ukraine's capital was a hive of activity Monday, giving volunteers a way to contribute to the war effort and providing a much-needed distraction from the harrowing news about Russia's escalating invasion.

A woman identified only as Oksana, whose husband is fighting in the Ukrainian army, said the kitchen duty gives her a way to avoid the latest developments.

"I got information that people need help in the kitchen," she said from the tent village that had sprung up between a multi-story building and a barrier made of stacked tires and sandbags. "I came and asked, and they said: 'Yes, we need hands.' That's it, and we are not sitting and reading terrifying messages on news channels."

Another volunteer at the kitchen, Oleksiy Shevchenko, said: "We are cooking soups, porridge for our military, for civilians and for everyone who needs our help, including hospitals."

Men in camouflage uniforms inspected canned food with messages scrawled on them in black marker.

"Thank you, darlings! We pray for you. God with us!" said one can.
Can't even begin to imagine the anxiety and depression waiting for your loved ones and reading news. You just have to go out, be with other people, do something to get through the day.

Why is there no magazine in his rifle?
The Debt
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12th Man Stan Account
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****ing terrorists
OKC~Ag
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lol china is not hiding where their allegiance is leaning...
SPSAg05
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Even if Zelensky and Putin come to some sort of agreement that ends the current warfare, the rest of the world still has Russia by the shorthairs with sanctions. Hopefully we refuse to relieve sanctions against Russia until they at least provide full reparations to Ukraine for the damage their offensive caused.
SupaManu
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RebelE Infantry said:

12th Man Stan Account said:


****ing terrorists




False flag, he says?
Yep definitely seems like a false flag, propaganda on both sides, but I believe 0 coming out of Russia
Tony Franklins Other Shoe
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CondensedFoggyAggie said:


They didn't take out the tank first. They waited until the soldiers re-entered the personnel carrier, then they destroyed that first.

They guys are out for blood, and looking at all the bombings and civilian deaths, I don't blame them one bit.


There is one reason why you aren't seeing a bunch of piled up bodies or POWs.

Person Not Capable of Pregnancy
Irish 2.0
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The western powers will agree to ease the lion's share of the sanctions if Putin were to pullout ASAP. To think that the western society would just say that all sanctions will remain regardless of a Russia/Ukraine deal is rather naive. If Putin were to pack up and leave on the condition of most sanctions being removed, the sanctions would be removed.
Irish 2.0
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RebelE Infantry said:

12th Man Stan Account said:


****ing terrorists




False flag, he says?
If biological research labs are the same as biological weapons labs, then A&M has one of the largest in the US...
ATX_AG_08
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Keegan99
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David Wallace said:

Keegan99 said:

David Wallace said:

Keegan99 said:

Correct. That was rhetoric. But at some point, something really IS an act of war in his mind.
So?

He is finished. His military is nothing that it was made out to be. Just more propaganda.

So your position is that there is no level of NATO involvement that would prompt a Russian first-use of nuclear weapons?

My position is that unless NATO invades Russia itself, there will not be any first use of nukes. And we all know that NATO isn't going to invade Russia.

Russia may respond with cyberattacks, BioWarefare (Think China and their releasing COVID), Conventional Warfare, Trade sanctions, dis-information campaigns, propaganda, election tampering, supporting terrorism and the like. But, no nukes.



That's a very strong assumption, with a very big downside to being wrong.

On what basis do you make it?


If I had to bet, I'd say it'd more likely than not that you're correct. But the downside risk is so large that it's still, shall we say, negative expected value.
Faustus
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https://www.nytimes.com/live/2022/03/08/world/ukraine-russia-war

Quote:

New radar satellite imagery of Vinnytsia Airport in western Ukraine collected on Monday shows damage to air traffic control towers and an aircraft. Russian cruise missiles struck the airport on Sunday. The airport is not near any areas of current ground fighting, but it does have some Ukrainian military presence, including aircraft.

There is no apparent damage to the runway, similar to other airfields that have been hit by missiles in Ukraine, according to Steven De La Fuente from the Middlebury Institute of International Studies at Monterey, who analyzed the image, which was collected by Capella Space, a commercial U.S. company.

"We have noticed very little damage to airport runways throughout Ukraine," Mr. De La Fuente said. "Many airports or airfields have noticeable missile damage, however, they seem to be targeting munitions caches, fuel storage, air traffic control facilities and stationary aircraft."

The analysis adds details to previous reporting by The Times that identified damage to both civilian and military areas of the airport.

Capella Space
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