aggiehawg said:

---

javajaws said:

---

aggiehawg said:

---

Quote:

---

I think they are trying to include as many different parties in this shell game as possible since that would make punitive action by Putin all that much harder.

---

The logistics of firing two or more tactical nukes instead of one?

---

The count is 3 so far...Poland, Germany, US. Given Russias rate of munitions failure you gotta think Biden is thinking our chances are good!

---

Ha ha! Normally I'm all for black humor but this is making me nervous as these responses/provocations/response to provocation cycle keeps spiraling faster and faster everyday.

---

I'm honestly with you. Reading the room, every nation has seemed extremely hesitant to be the one to supply Ukraine with the planes.

That has to count for something and tell some sort of story. I think they all want to be seen as virtuous in helping Ukraine in this way, with Zelenky's largest ask, but when push comes to shove, I believe they all think it's a bad idea.

AMAZON HAS STOPPED ACCEPTING NEW CLOUD COMPUTING/AWS CUSTOMERS IN RUSSIA AND BELARUS - NYT REPORTER TWEET

AWS IS NO LONGER ACCEPTING NEW CUSTOMERS BASED IN RUSSIA OR BELARUS - BLOG

— *Walter Bloomberg (@DeItaone) March 8, 2022

FireAg said:

---

As the days go by, I think it's safe to say that Putin already has plenty of excuses to accuse the West of escalating things...the weapons NATO countries have supplied alone could easily be construed as escalation...

But so far, all Putin has done is bluster and threaten...

He knows he's battling the West in Ukraine already, and I don't think he was prepared for that, and frankly, I think he see's himself as stuck now...

---

It also shows he probably isn't willing to go nuclear which he would need should he invite nato to the fight.

He knows now nato would destroy his army.

Poland transfers MiG fighters to the U.S....
and eventually to Ukraine

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/poland-transfers-mig-fighters-to-the-us-as-ukraine-asks-for-help/ar-AAUNgV1?li=BBnb7Kz

ABATTBQ11 said:

---

Armed Drones - OK
Manned Planes - Bad

Makes sense

---

Yah, but Turkey is maintaining that the drones are being sold by a private country to the Ukraine.

Come to think of it, that's probably why their president visited Putin a few days ago to calm things down. The Bayraktar is becoming an international sensation.

At some point there is a level of involvement by NATO that Putin will not find tolerable.

It's obviously not weapons. Is it fighters? Looks like we will find out.

But we're definitely moving closer to that level for Putin, whatever it is.

Keegan99 said:

---

At some point there is a level of involvement by NATO that Putin will not find tolerable.

It's obviously not weapons. Is it fighters? Looks like we will find out.

But we're definitely moving closer to that level for Putin, whatever it is.

---

I agree, but on the other hand, it sure seems like we are willing to inch closer and closer to the edge just to see how far we can take it...

Like I said...feels like we are starting to play a game of chicken...

Correct. That was rhetoric. But at some point, something really IS an act of war in his mind.

CondensedFoggyAggie said:

---

12th Man Stan Account said:

---

Hard to reconcile those comments w/ these latest comments from Zelensky:

⚡️ Zelensky: “We will not give up and we will not lose.”

Zelensky delivered a speech, by live stream, to the UK House of Commons, where he called for increased Western sanctions.

He also asked lawmakers to ensure that the “Ukrainian skies are safe.”

— The Kyiv Independent (@KyivIndependent) March 8, 2022

Confusing to make both of these statements in the same day, no?
Here's hoping he sticks to his guns.

---

Zelensky MUST keep up the 'propaganda' campaign of being on the righteous side, even if damn near the entire world understands and is with him.

By signaling he is open for negotiations, even if there is ZERO chance it happens, the world will keep on reporting him as a man who wants peace, but is forced to fight.

I don't know if he's intentionally doing it, but he's smart.

---

From one of 74OA's prior links and OsintTechnical (siap) :

https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/44636/the-next-few-weeks-of-fighting-in-ukraine-will-be-ugly-cia-director-warns

Quote:

---

. . . In an interesting development, the Kremlin has now allowed Chinese journalists to embed with its units in Ukraine.

Interesting, Chinese media embedded with Russian troops. pic.twitter.com/kXksZt9Z9c

— OSINTtechnical (@Osinttechnical) March 8, 2022

---

So the "propaganda" campaign is going both ways. We're just exposed to mainly one side of it.

Keegan99 said:

---

Correct. That was rhetoric. But at some point, something really IS an act of war in his mind.

---

So?

He is finished. His military is nothing that it was made out to be. Just more propaganda.

FireAg said:

---

As the days go by, I think it's safe to say that Putin already has plenty of excuses to accuse the West of escalating things...the weapons NATO countries have supplied alone could easily be construed as escalation...

But so far, all Putin has done is bluster and threaten...

He knows he's battling the West in Ukraine already, and I don't think he was prepared for that, and frankly, I think he see's himself as stuck now...

---

HUGE difference between supplying weapons to an opponent (as the Sovs did in Korea, Vietnam, Iraq) and as we did in Afghanistan and Central America..

versus actually shooting at each other in a no fly zone.

there have been client state wars for the last 70 years with the weaponry of either the Soviets or the Americans and no one really cares.

but take an actual participating role and that is Defcon 2 right there.

A large part of Polish reticence is that the MIG 29s make up about 1/3 of their Combat Air Force. F-16s to replace them, which they are familiar with (they have Blk 52 C/D), will take some time to get in place.

If Ukraine parks all those planes in western Ukraine somewhere it wouldn't surprise me at all to see Putin drop a nuke on them. Less land he has to conquer and it then becomes a permanent DMZ.

Could this all be a negotiating tactic to start with? To let Putin know things may get even worse for him? I kind of think at this point if Putin really wanted to take on the West, he would have just false flagged it anyway. I do think if those planes end up seeing combat that in no way can they end up in Russian airspace.

LMCane said:

---

FireAg said:

---

As the days go by, I think it's safe to say that Putin already has plenty of excuses to accuse the West of escalating things...the weapons NATO countries have supplied alone could easily be construed as escalation...

But so far, all Putin has done is bluster and threaten...

He knows he's battling the West in Ukraine already, and I don't think he was prepared for that, and frankly, I think he see's himself as stuck now...

---

HUGE difference between supplying weapons to an opponent (as the Sovs did in Korea, Vietnam, Iraq) and as we did in Afghanistan and Central America..

versus actually shooting at each other in a no fly zone.

there have been client state wars for the last 70 years with the weaponry of either the Soviets or the Americans and no one really cares.

but take an actual participating role and that is Defcon 2 right there.

---

Even if we had NATO pilots "volunteering" in the donated MiGs and SU aircraft I don't think that would trigger it. Sending the 82nd Airborne in or flying NATO jets to enforce a no-fly zone is a whole different deal.

I never said it was logical, Mr. Spock.

Putin said Planes would be interpreted as an escalation. Putin tends to say what he means.

mickeyrig06sq3 said:

---

aggiehawg said:

---

Stat Monitor Repairman said:

---

Quote:

---

place them at the disposal of the US government.

---

---

What else are we going to do with them?

---

They're playing culpability hot-potato. Do you have Ukrainian pilots come pick them up from Rammstein? Do you have NATO pilots pick them up to fly them to Ukraine? Do you do neither and they magically disappear from the tarmac and show up in Ukrainian airspace (queue the aliens meme)?

---

I am sure the plan is to have the planes flown to NATO base at Rammstein, then Uke pilots come to Germany and pick them up and fly them back into Ukraine.

how long those aircraft can survive once they cross the Polish/Uke border is the real question.

Irish 2.0 said:

---

WEDNESDAY (NOT THURSDAY) https://t.co/JpozHwCDnb

— *Walter Bloomberg (@DeItaone) March 8, 2022

---

To me this is Russia saying to the Uke citizens "we gave you a chance to leave, if you do not we are not at fault if you die from our weapon systems".

LMCane said:

---

FireAg said:

---

As the days go by, I think it's safe to say that Putin already has plenty of excuses to accuse the West of escalating things...the weapons NATO countries have supplied alone could easily be construed as escalation...

But so far, all Putin has done is bluster and threaten...

He knows he's battling the West in Ukraine already, and I don't think he was prepared for that, and frankly, I think he see's himself as stuck now...

---

HUGE difference between supplying weapons to an opponent (as the Sovs did in Korea, Vietnam, Iraq) and as we did in Afghanistan and Central America..

versus actually shooting at each other in a no fly zone.

there have been client state wars for the last 70 years with the weaponry of either the Soviets or the Americans and no one really cares.

but take an actual participating role and that is Defcon 2 right there.

---

I would typically agree...

But Putin's words said otherwise...he said if a Western nation supplied them with fighters, it was a declaration of war...

Now he's either buffing again, or he meant it...

I tend to think it was probably a bluff, but I do worry about the wounded animal being cornered scenario...Putin's army seems to be fairly subpar...I don't see how anyone can honestly argue against that, based on current evidence...

Of course, the real problem is the big firecrackers...you don't have to be a good army to **** up the world with those big firecrackers...

But at this point, I'm not sure anyone really knows whether or not he has the balls to deploy them...

And is it wise to test him on this? I don't personally think it is...but you can only shift chess pieces for so long before someone makes a bold move...

David Wallace said:

---

Keegan99 said:

---

Correct. That was rhetoric. But at some point, something really IS an act of war in his mind.

---

So?

He is finished. His military is nothing that it was made out to be. Just more propaganda.

---

So your position is that there is no level of NATO involvement that would prompt a Russian first-use of nuclear weapons?

LMCane said:

---

FireAg said:

---

OKC~Ag said:

---

Poland transfers MiG fighters to the U.S....
and eventually to Ukraine

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/poland-transfers-mig-fighters-to-the-us-as-ukraine-asks-for-help/ar-AAUNgV1?li=BBnb7Kz

---

Makes me wonder if we are now playing our first real game of chicken...

IF these stories are correct, and the US aides in the delivery of MiGs by way of Ramstein in Germany, then there really isn't much difference between that and the US formally announcing we are getting involved...it's all just semantics at that point...

IF these stories are correct, it would make me wonder if we have reason to believe that Vlad is too weak to really try to take on the West, even with the big firecrackers...

On the other hand, that's still a helluva a gamble...

---

Again, delivering weapons to an opponent has been done numerous times in the battles between Soviets and Americans- but we have never come face to face and actually fired at each other.

that's a huge difference.

---

I mean in Korea and Vietnam it did happen and both sides knew it. We just didn't escalate it past what was already happening.

David Wallace said:

---

Keegan99 said:

---

Correct. That was rhetoric. But at some point, something really IS an act of war in his mind.

---

So?

He is finished. His military is nothing that it was made out to be. Just more propaganda.

---

Regardless of the ineffectiveness of his military, he has the power to hold the world hostage to the range of his IBCMs.

We go to kinetic war against Russia, they can not win conventionally. Plus they would be facing invasion from NATO forces in Poland, Finland, the Baltic States, Turkey, Japan, and South Korea simultaneously while 25% plus of their military is bogged down unexpectedly in Ukraine. That does not even factor in the vast technological advantage the US/NATO has.

..........So do they take everyone down with them?

Putin already said that Russia will not accept a world without Russia. So what difference will it make to him to plunge the world into nuclear holocaust?

Agsuffering@bulaw said:

---

ETA- Poland's nightmare scenario: Poland transfers the planes. Putin levels a city in Eastern Poland. NATO refuses to come to Poland's aid on the grounds that Poland was the one who started it. Unlikely, but not a risk Poland can afford to take.


Putin has already said he would interpret giving planes to Ukraine as an escalation. Poland is probably afraid that NATO could hang it out to dry. Poland wants to ensure that the US is in for a dollar, not just a dime.

Sad thing is that 30 years ago, this would have been unnecessary. Back then, the world would take a POTUS at his word. But then, they saw how we jerked Ukraine and Georgia around.

---

Poland borders the heavily militarized Kaliningrad region to their northeast, so it's certainly understandable if they see themselves in a precarious position.

Maybe I'm naive, but I think there's no way NATO would leave Poland out to dry like that. Now think about this from Putin's perspective: if he takes military action against Poland, maybe NATO will sit idly by, or maybe all 30 NATO countries will come to war against Russia. World War III is not a risk Putin can afford to take.

If there is any retaliation by Putin, it will be just enough to avoid engaging in an all-out confrontation with NATO.

Keegan99 said:

---

David Wallace said:

---

Keegan99 said:

---

Correct. That was rhetoric. But at some point, something really IS an act of war in his mind.

---

So?

He is finished. His military is nothing that it was made out to be. Just more propaganda.

---

So your position is that there is no level of NATO involvement that would prompt a Russian first-use of nuclear weapons?

---

That is a foolish assumption.

Back a badger up into a corner, and it becomes absolutely angry and has no sense of rationality.

FireAg said:

---

OKC~Ag said:

---

Poland transfers MiG fighters to the U.S....
and eventually to Ukraine

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/poland-transfers-mig-fighters-to-the-us-as-ukraine-asks-for-help/ar-AAUNgV1?li=BBnb7Kz

---

Makes me wonder if we are now playing our first real game of chicken...

IF these stories are correct, and the US aides in the delivery of MiGs by way of Ramstein in Germany, then there really isn't much difference between that and the US formally announcing we are getting involved...it's all just semantics at that point...

IF these stories are correct, it would make me wonder if we have reason to believe that Vlad is too weak to really try to take on the West, even with the big firecrackers...

On the other hand, that's still a helluva a gamble...

---

Absolutely. Keep in mind, as well, the Polish Mig-29's are not...newish or state of the art/even recent models/versions. The Russian Air Force has been a disaster in this war, unable to sustain any real air superiority or coordinated attacks, and the addition of a dozen or two 30 year old -29's from Poland for Ukraine is unlikely to have any real impact other than...a possible trigger for Putin.

Which begs the question; why?

Poland has 21 single-seat MiG-29s and 6 twin-seat MiG-29s, according to Janes World Air Forces.

Given this news I think we'll see renewed missile strikes against airfields in western Ukraine. As well as more work for the S400s

RebelE Infantry said:

---

Given this news I think we'll see renewed missile strikes against airfields in western Ukraine. As well as more work for the S400s

---

excellent analysis.

agreed. the Russkies are going to go all out in the next few days to blast as many landing spaces as they can.

One difference between drones, small arms, anti-tank munitions, etc and the MIGs is that Putin could easily see the MIGs as offensive weapons. That may be the reason for the shell game and a reason for Putin to escalate over them where he hasn't escalated over the other weapons and sanctions.

Keegan99 said:

---

David Wallace said:

---

Keegan99 said:

---

Correct. That was rhetoric. But at some point, something really IS an act of war in his mind.

---

So?

He is finished. His military is nothing that it was made out to be. Just more propaganda.

---

So your position is that there is no level of NATO involvement that would prompt a Russian first-use of nuclear weapons?

---

I doubt Putin would give that order unless his life is personally at stake because he knows his military likely wouldn't follow that order unless their lives and family were at stake.

We aren't talking about Al Qaeda here.