*UKRAINE'S PODOLYAK: TALKS WITH RUSSIA ARE STARTING pic.twitter.com/wb04cbSSof
— *Walter Bloomberg (@DeItaone) March 7, 2022
***Russian - Ukraine War Tactical and Strategic Updates*** [Warning on OP]
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Last: 8 hrs ago by EastSideAg2002
I can give strategic reasons:
Russia could still win this. Russia could also bomb Kiev back to the Stone Age. Russia could rip both major nuke power plants apart in retaliation.
Crimea, Donetsk and Luhansk will not return. Those populations do not want to be part of Ukraine.
NATO is not likely to ever admit Ukraine. Germany or France would veto it. Not saying it's just. It is reality.
Finland fought a nasty series of battles with the USSR between 1939-1944. Finland lost some territory, but killed half a million communists. USSR left them alone after that.
Putin's big picture is to stop the expansion of NATO. Conquering would have been gravy. Allowing Russia to appoint a PM is trash. I bet the Russians would drop that.
Russia could still win this. Russia could also bomb Kiev back to the Stone Age. Russia could rip both major nuke power plants apart in retaliation.
Crimea, Donetsk and Luhansk will not return. Those populations do not want to be part of Ukraine.
NATO is not likely to ever admit Ukraine. Germany or France would veto it. Not saying it's just. It is reality.
Finland fought a nasty series of battles with the USSR between 1939-1944. Finland lost some territory, but killed half a million communists. USSR left them alone after that.
Putin's big picture is to stop the expansion of NATO. Conquering would have been gravy. Allowing Russia to appoint a PM is trash. I bet the Russians would drop that.
the stated objective many times from Putin is to change the government in Kiev, and to push back NATO forces from the borders of Russia.BusterAg said:I think you can come to an agreement in which Russia understands that any future invasion into Ukraine results in American retaliation, with America and NATO promising not to put troops or equipment in Ukraine.Gordo14 said:
Russia has almost completely stalled on every front at this point. I think momentum is on Ukraine's side. If they want complete self-determination beyond Russia's influence, now is not the time to make an agreement with Russia. I don't think this war is sustainable for Russia and the war of attrition is killing them.
That would benefit Ukraine greatly, and Russia gets its stated military objectives achieved.
LMCane said:jabberwalkie09 said:FWIW, a ceasefire means something different from a peace agreement.Beat40 said:Agthatbuilds said:Irish 2.0 said:
Seeing that Russia brought that to the table is a big turnabout from last week. I could see this nearing the end and a possible ceasefire in place in the next 48hrs
What tactical reasons would Ukraine have for making a deal such as the one proposed that would end this in the next 48 hours?
I think what he s saying that Russia has made major concessions and Ukraine is operating from a place of more power in the negotiations now. Given those two aspects, the original deal isn't accepted, but a modified deal could be reached within 48 hours.
Anyone who believes the Ukrainians are negotiating from a position of strength is not analyzing the maps correctly.
the fact that a Uke political entity still exists is an amazing accomplishment, but every day that goes by the Russians move closer to encircling every major city in Ukraine (other than Lviv).
the Russians are also nearly able to head straight up the Dnieper valley on both sides of the river line and cut the country in two, as well as then advance on Kyiv directly from the south. then it's game over.
While I dont disagree that the Ukrainian strength is generally over estimated, you're opinion of Russian strength is vastly overconfident.
The Russians hold some road ways and very little sq footage. They still don't have air superiority. They still can't seemingly hold any city of decent size for more than a little time. It will take more than shelling to take down ukraine as buildings don't make a country.
Further, we must include the overall picture when considering Russian and Ukrainian strength. Russia still has to deal with all the sanctions and voluntary isolation businesses are inflicting. That is a major factor in Russian decision making (or should be). Ukraine is getting daily help from nearly the entire world via weapons and cash. 100s of thousands have returned to fight on top those already in country. 10s of thousands of foreigners have volunteered to fight.
It's not the Ukrainians who changed the terms, it was the Russians. And it is generally agreed the terms were a little more friendly to the ukes. That typically would mean the Russians are the ones arguing from a position of weakness.
Has there been talk of this by Germany and France?Agsuffering@bulaw said:
I can give strategic reasons:
Russia could still win this. Russia could also bomb Kiev back to the Stone Age. Russia could rip both major nuke power plants apart in retaliation.
Crimea, Donetsk and Luhansk will not return. Those populations do not want to be part of Ukraine.
NATO is not likely to ever admit Ukraine. Germany or France would veto it. Not saying it's just. It is reality.
Finland fought a nasty series of battles with the USSR between 1939-1944. Finland lost some territory, but killed half a million communists. USSR left them alone after that.
Putin's big picture is to stop the expansion of NATO. Conquering would have been gravy. Allowing Russia to appoint a PM is trash. I bet the Russians would drop that.
yes because I want my people to flee to the very country that is trying to kill meRebelE Infantry said:#UPDATE Ukraine dismissed Moscow's offer to create humanitarian corridors from the bombarded cities of #Kharkiv, #Kyiv, #Mariupol and #Sumy on Monday after it emerged that exit routes would lead refugees into Russia or Belarus https://t.co/BhjFT6QzVh pic.twitter.com/MBnPzxE2Mf
— AFP News Agency (@AFP) March 7, 2022
Not a good look for Ukraine
Why is it not a good look? I wouldn't want my people to go to a totalitarian state either. Open up a corridor to Poland.
RebelE Infantry said:#UPDATE Ukraine dismissed Moscow's offer to create humanitarian corridors from the bombarded cities of #Kharkiv, #Kyiv, #Mariupol and #Sumy on Monday after it emerged that exit routes would lead refugees into Russia or Belarus https://t.co/BhjFT6QzVh pic.twitter.com/MBnPzxE2Mf
— AFP News Agency (@AFP) March 7, 2022
Not a good look for Ukraine
The Russians offered a poison pill and it's a bad look for Ukraine to say no?
Great look for Ukraine. No way in hell should they let Russia dictate where these refugees are allowed to go.RebelE Infantry said:#UPDATE Ukraine dismissed Moscow's offer to create humanitarian corridors from the bombarded cities of #Kharkiv, #Kyiv, #Mariupol and #Sumy on Monday after it emerged that exit routes would lead refugees into Russia or Belarus https://t.co/BhjFT6QzVh pic.twitter.com/MBnPzxE2Mf
— AFP News Agency (@AFP) March 7, 2022
Not a good look for Ukraine
It's been established that Russian "humanitarian corridors" are just a ruse anyway.
Why the **** would you want the refugees take trains to oppressor???RebelE Infantry said:#UPDATE Ukraine dismissed Moscow's offer to create humanitarian corridors from the bombarded cities of #Kharkiv, #Kyiv, #Mariupol and #Sumy on Monday after it emerged that exit routes would lead refugees into Russia or Belarus https://t.co/BhjFT6QzVh pic.twitter.com/MBnPzxE2Mf
— AFP News Agency (@AFP) March 7, 2022
Not a good look forUkraineRUSSIA
**** worked out great for the Jews.
VaultingChemist said:Once again, controlling many roads doesn’t really mean controlling territory. This is what the RU occupation looks like now. They drive around, kill, shell - but don’t control.#StandWithUkraine️ #putinisfailing pic.twitter.com/GWZUYdXX15
— olexander scherba🇺🇦 (@olex_scherba) March 7, 2022
that is Ukrainian propaganda. the Russians don't only "control" roads, they are encircling and capturing major Uke cities such as Mariupol and much of Kharkiv is completely surrounded and under siege.
Important to look dispassionately at the real situation to analyze it free from propaganda from either the Rus or the Ukes.
the reality is that the Russian southern front is making very good progress and that the Russians are in control of about 25% of the country already.
RebelE Infantry said:#UPDATE Ukraine dismissed Moscow's offer to create humanitarian corridors from the bombarded cities of #Kharkiv, #Kyiv, #Mariupol and #Sumy on Monday after it emerged that exit routes would lead refugees into Russia or Belarus https://t.co/BhjFT6QzVh pic.twitter.com/MBnPzxE2Mf
— AFP News Agency (@AFP) March 7, 2022
Not a good look for Ukraine
WAT? Do you want to send your refugees into enemy territory? The same territory that violated a ceasefire to gun down refugees headed out of another city?
Those people would just get arrested in Russia or Belarus anyway.
Create hostages for Russia to use against Ukraine? Yeah, that's a hard pass on that.Charpie said:yes because I want my people to flee to the very country that is trying to kill meRebelE Infantry said:#UPDATE Ukraine dismissed Moscow's offer to create humanitarian corridors from the bombarded cities of #Kharkiv, #Kyiv, #Mariupol and #Sumy on Monday after it emerged that exit routes would lead refugees into Russia or Belarus https://t.co/BhjFT6QzVh pic.twitter.com/MBnPzxE2Mf
— AFP News Agency (@AFP) March 7, 2022
Not a good look for Ukraine
Exactly, handing over your citizens as hostages is a non starter.12th Man Stan Account said:Great look for Ukraine. No way in hell should they let Russia dictate where these refugees are allowed to go.RebelE Infantry said:#UPDATE Ukraine dismissed Moscow's offer to create humanitarian corridors from the bombarded cities of #Kharkiv, #Kyiv, #Mariupol and #Sumy on Monday after it emerged that exit routes would lead refugees into Russia or Belarus https://t.co/BhjFT6QzVh pic.twitter.com/MBnPzxE2Mf
— AFP News Agency (@AFP) March 7, 2022
Not a good look for Ukraine
It's been established that Russian "humanitarian corridors" are just a ruse anyway.
Seven and three are ten, not only now, but forever. There has never been a time when seven and three were not ten, nor will there ever be a time when they are not ten. Therefore, I have said that the truth of number is incorruptible and common to all who think. — St. Augustine
Agsuffering@bulaw said:
I can give strategic reasons:
Russia could still win this. Russia could also bomb Kiev back to the Stone Age. Russia could rip both major nuke power plants apart in retaliation.
Crimea, Donetsk and Luhansk will not return. Those populations do not want to be part of Ukraine.
NATO is not likely to ever admit Ukraine. Germany or France would veto it. Not saying it's just. It is reality.
Finland fought a nasty series of battles with the USSR between 1939-1944. Finland lost some territory, but killed half a million communists. USSR left them alone after that.
Putin's big picture is to stop the expansion of NATO. Conquering would have been gravy. Allowing Russia to appoint a PM is trash. I bet the Russians would drop that.
Good points. I also doubt this is the entire deal.
1. The Russians would then be able to hold those Uke citizens as pawns/hostagesIrish 2.0 said:Why the **** would you want the refugees take trains to oppressor???RebelE Infantry said:#UPDATE Ukraine dismissed Moscow's offer to create humanitarian corridors from the bombarded cities of #Kharkiv, #Kyiv, #Mariupol and #Sumy on Monday after it emerged that exit routes would lead refugees into Russia or Belarus https://t.co/BhjFT6QzVh pic.twitter.com/MBnPzxE2Mf
— AFP News Agency (@AFP) March 7, 2022
Not a good look forUkraineRUSSIA
**** worked out great for the Jews.
2. any males would be taken off the potential battlefield
Agsuffering@bulaw said:
I can give strategic reasons:
Russia could still win this. Russia could also bomb Kiev back to the Stone Age. Russia could rip both major nuke power plants apart in retaliation.
Complete destruction of Kyiv would hurt his objectives imo. Putin wants to have Kyiv back in the fold/under control with the history intact.
Inhibiting expansion of NATO is part of this for Putin. The Donbas region and Crimean peninsula have resources that he wants. It's literally fuel for the Russian petroleum empire. Especially with how Russia would then be able to claim the Sea of Azov and the Black Sea. He already has control of the Crimean port with access to the Mediterranean, which is a strategic win for Russia.Quote:
Crimea, Donetsk and Luhansk will not return. Those populations do not want to be part of Ukraine.
NATO is not likely to ever admit Ukraine. Germany or France would veto it. Not saying it's just. It is reality.
Finland fought a nasty series of battles with the USSR between 1939-1944. Finland lost some territory, but killed half a million communists. USSR left them alone after that.
Putin's big picture is to stop the expansion of NATO. Conquering would have been gravy. Allowing Russia to appoint a PM is trash. I bet the Russians would drop that.
Exactly.
ConfidentAg said:
Why is it not a good look? I wouldn't want my people to go to a totalitarian state either. Open up a corridor to Poland.
Because Russia does not control territory leading to Poland, and therefore cannot guarantee the safety of the corridor. They are guaranteeing these corridors in areas which they control, which makes sense.
RebelE Infantry said:ConfidentAg said:
Why is it not a good look? I wouldn't want my people to go to a totalitarian state either. Open up a corridor to Poland.
Because Russia does not control territory leading to Poland, and therefore cannot guarantee the safety of the corridor. They are guaranteeing these corridors in areas which they control, which makes sense.
They could guarantee to not fire on the corridor? Is that too difficult?
So you'd have them take the corridor directly to the person that is attacking them???RebelE Infantry said:ConfidentAg said:
Why is it not a good look? I wouldn't want my people to go to a totalitarian state either. Open up a corridor to Poland.
Because Russia does not control territory leading to Poland, and therefore cannot guarantee the safety of the corridor. They are guaranteeing these corridors in areas which they control, which makes sense.
Hey, we'll stop attacking you. Just board this train and go to this little camp for awhile. It'll be okay!
What could possibly go wrong?
Good Lord!!
USERNAME DOES NOT CHECKOUT AT ALL!!!!
Absolutely a good look for Ukraine.
The Russians have a documented history of using such routes as kill zones, and sending refugees to enemy territory should not be an acceptable option.
Refugee routes should lead to Poland or similar.
The Russians have a documented history of using such routes as kill zones, and sending refugees to enemy territory should not be an acceptable option.
Refugee routes should lead to Poland or similar.
The Russians have already twice violated a cease fire on a humanitarian corridor by firing on it as people were trying to flee. What makes anyone think they'd abide by it now?
I think the Russian most optimistic goal was all of Ukraine, more realistic is "own" everything East of the Dnieper River which allows a land bridge into Crimea and the warm water ports, think Eastern Ukraine and Western Ukraine where Eastern Ukraine is a puppet state like Belurus. Worst case for Putin is negotiate for a simple land bridge in the SE of Ukraine to Crimea as "those Ukrainians want to be Russians anyways" thinking that I guess the world was ok with for Crimea
LMCane said:VaultingChemist said:Once again, controlling many roads doesn’t really mean controlling territory. This is what the RU occupation looks like now. They drive around, kill, shell - but don’t control.#StandWithUkraine️ #putinisfailing pic.twitter.com/GWZUYdXX15
— olexander scherba🇺🇦 (@olex_scherba) March 7, 2022
that is Ukrainian propaganda. the Russians don't only "control" roads, they are encircling and capturing major Uke cities such as Mariupol and much of Kharkiv is completely surrounded and under siege.
Important to look dispassionately at the real situation to analyze it free from propaganda from either the Rus or the Ukes.
the reality is that the Russian southern front is making very good progress and that the Russians are in control of about 25% of the country already.
Have you taken your own advice? There is enough evidence to suggest that Russians are only able to move on the road ways, equipment sinks when they go off pavement. On top of that, some of the cities they have taken were retaken in short order. I'd say that who really controls what is kind of debatable right now. Outside of the Donbas and coastal cities/villages east of Crimea on the Sea of Azov I mean.
This is similar to the Nazi's "evacuating" Jews to concentration camps.
I'm sure that there is a giant incinerator there in Russia at the end of those evacuation routes.
I'm sure that there is a giant incinerator there in Russia at the end of those evacuation routes.
There's a reason that you win Chess by capturing the king. The idea that control of the roads isn't important ignores the capture-the-flag nature of warfare. You don't need the hearts of farmers in a remote town in order to win - you need to get to (and control) the critical political and utility infrastructure. Biden doesn't care if rednecks hate him as long as they don't storm DC. Putin won't care what Ukrainians think of him as long as they aren't an impediment to his siege.LMCane said:VaultingChemist said:Once again, controlling many roads doesn’t really mean controlling territory. This is what the RU occupation looks like now. They drive around, kill, shell - but don’t control.#StandWithUkraine️ #putinisfailing pic.twitter.com/GWZUYdXX15
— olexander scherba🇺🇦 (@olex_scherba) March 7, 2022
that is Ukrainian propaganda. the Russians don't only "control" roads, they are encircling and capturing major Uke cities such as Mariupol and much of Kharkiv is completely surrounded and under siege.
Important to look dispassionately at the real situation to analyze it free from propaganda from either the Rus or the Ukes.
the reality is that the Russian southern front is making very good progress and that the Russians are in control of about 25% of the country already.
nm. Several people have already addressed and my post just adds clutter.
I don't think it would be just those two who would object. I don't think we want anything to do with that as things stand right now, either. It's basically guaranteeing the next World War.YouBet said:Has there been talk of this by Germany and France?Agsuffering@bulaw said:
I can give strategic reasons:
Russia could still win this. Russia could also bomb Kiev back to the Stone Age. Russia could rip both major nuke power plants apart in retaliation.
Crimea, Donetsk and Luhansk will not return. Those populations do not want to be part of Ukraine.
NATO is not likely to ever admit Ukraine. Germany or France would veto it. Not saying it's just. It is reality.
Finland fought a nasty series of battles with the USSR between 1939-1944. Finland lost some territory, but killed half a million communists. USSR left them alone after that.
Putin's big picture is to stop the expansion of NATO. Conquering would have been gravy. Allowing Russia to appoint a PM is trash. I bet the Russians would drop that.
Another point that hasn't been mentioned:
I'm sure Russian state TV would LOVE footage of Ukrainian refugees fleeing the "Nazi" regime into the arms of Mother Russia. The fact that all refugees are headed west hurts the Kremlin's narrative tremendously.
Edit: Not trying to pile on with this comment, just proposing another motive for Russia to want these refugees.
I'm sure Russian state TV would LOVE footage of Ukrainian refugees fleeing the "Nazi" regime into the arms of Mother Russia. The fact that all refugees are headed west hurts the Kremlin's narrative tremendously.
Edit: Not trying to pile on with this comment, just proposing another motive for Russia to want these refugees.
*** We are not going to derail this update thread with a deep dive on whether the Russians will kill evacuating citizens. If you want to discuss that, please start another thread. We will keep this one clear for tactical and strategic updates -- Staff ***
LMCane said:VaultingChemist said:Once again, controlling many roads doesn’t really mean controlling territory. This is what the RU occupation looks like now. They drive around, kill, shell - but don’t control.#StandWithUkraine️ #putinisfailing pic.twitter.com/GWZUYdXX15
— olexander scherba🇺🇦 (@olex_scherba) March 7, 2022
that is Ukrainian propaganda. the Russians don't only "control" roads, they are encircling and capturing major Uke cities such as Mariupol and much of Kharkiv is completely surrounded and under siege.
Important to look dispassionately at the real situation to analyze it free from propaganda from either the Rus or the Ukes.
the reality is that the Russian southern front is making very good progress and that the Russians are in control of about 25% of the country already.
Objectively, they only control what they started with. Any new land that is red is disputed at best.
Russia actually holding any new land is up for debate since we are going to wage a proxy guerilla war there.
Russia has not gained more territory east of Kyiv but has intensified its attacks northwest of the capital. In the south, Ukraine is fighting to regain control of two strategic airfields.
— C O U P S U R E (@COUPSURE) March 7, 2022
Mapping with @SimTack & @detresfa_ pic.twitter.com/gaGSqwTo5E
That's enough to kill every invading Russian vehicle twice. It is a clear message that occupation is not possible because dead Russian vehicles will litter the landscape forever.VaultingChemist said:"In less than a week, the United States and NATO have pushed more than 17,000 antitank weapons, including Javelin missiles, over the borders of Poland and Romania,"https://t.co/71av4yc4mh pic.twitter.com/ZALm7iEwHW
— Rob Lee (@RALee85) March 7, 2022
That's a lot of destructive power.
*** You are the one getting a ban for a personal attack. Continue the behavior and take a longer vacation -- Staff ***
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