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He said that the Russians are increasing their objectives without increasing support and thus, stretching resources. He couldn't comprehend the logic aside from taking one big, unbridle swing at Ukraine - which, again, seems desperate.

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I'm not a tactician but that seems dumb as hell to me. You have a mission, you have a TOE based upon that mission. But then go in another direction without a TOE? Nor even the remote ability to fulfill one if you prepare one?

I think the mindset for the Russians might be that the forces north and west of Kiev aren't adding anything to the fight just sitting there. In their mind they are willing to risk sending out those columns because it also means the Ukrainians also have to thin their lines in order to protect their flank, and if they get lucky and find a weak spot they will pour their troops there, and if they lose them than who cares.

Do the Ukrainians have high altitude SAM missile batteries? With the Russkies switching to high altitude bombing with dumb bombs the shoulder launched missiles obviously won't help.

I read that Poland has some Patriot missiles I wonder if they can be sent to Ukraine but no idea how that works and if the Ukrainians could integrate those with their existing air defense.

Ukraine/Russia: North and western major offensives on Chernihiv reported tonight. The airfield and the city itself we believe. Heavy fighting ongoing.

— The Cavell Group (@TCG_CrisisRisks) March 6, 2022

Ukraine/Russia: Many contradictions in reports out of Chernihiv between both sides and civilians. It seemed a Ukrainian offensive moved them back into the city after snipers killed a commander and they took out numerous vehicles. Reports now of a counterattack. Awaiting more 👀

— The Cavell Group (@TCG_CrisisRisks) March 6, 2022

Russian ARM SEAD and DEAD continues to be nearly nonexistent. They’re sending SU-25s after some Ukrainian SAM sites, but they’re equipped with dumb bombs and that isn’t exactly the best recipe for survivability.

I legitimately think they’ve used more SRBMs against the sites. https://t.co/3AqSzAvgyU

— OSINTtechnical (@Osinttechnical) March 6, 2022

ARM- anti-radiation missile
SEAD- suppression of air defense
DEAD- destruction of air defense
SAM- surface to air missile
SRBM- short range ballistic missile (Iskander, Tokcha)
AGM-45- early US ARM

— OSINTtechnical (@Osinttechnical) March 6, 2022

The su25 is the Russian a10.

Bloomberg reporting that Australia is investing $7.5b for a base for nuclear submarines because the Ukraine war will inevitably come to the Pacific.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-03-06/australia-to-build-new-7-4-billion-base-for-nuclear-submarines?utm_source=google&utm_medium=bd&cmpId=google

The AGM-45 is a Vietnam war era weapon. Not sure why they are referencing that.

I wonder if the dearth of precision guided weapons is because the Russians don't have the microchips to replace the spent units.

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Dan Scott said:

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Bloomberg reporting that Australia is investing $7.5b for a base for nuclear submarines because the Ukraine war will inevitably come to the Pacific.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-03-06/australia-to-build-new-7-4-billion-base-for-nuclear-submarines?utm_source=google&utm_medium=bd&cmpId=google

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China will be happy to see this strategic development...

Ag8556 said:

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The AGM-45 is a Vietnam war era weapon. Not sure why they are referencing that.

I wonder if the dearth of precision guided weapons is because the Russians don't have the microchips to replace the spent units.

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Comparison. What they have now might be comparable to what we had 50 years ago in terms of capability.

Agthatbuilds said:

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FJB said:

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Blinken: NATO countries have "green light" to send fighter jets to #Ukraine.https://t.co/y0gpVnjb7i

— Disclose.tv (@disclosetv) March 6, 2022

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This might be the beginning of the feared escalation depending on how putin responds. He's already said he'd consider it an act of war.

He also said he considers the sanctions an act of war

He can say all he wants, but he if responds militarily, we're all in for a world of hurt.

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I know Poland put out the rumors of them providing jets and airbase were false, and pretty sure that was like today.

Anyone know the timeline on that? Was that after this from Blinken?

Ag8556 said:

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The AGM-45 is a Vietnam war era weapon. Not sure why they are referencing that.

I wonder if the dearth of precision guided weapons is because the Russians don't have the microchips to replace the spent units.

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Ghost weapons. Their stocks, even well before covid crap were being pilfered or falsely reported due to what always has happened under Marxist systems, lack of incentive for the work force. They get paid the same whether they actually manufacture stuff or not.

The readiness reports Putin has been given since 2000 are faked. Too much of it doesn't exist, in Russia and available for use there.

The pivot to using Syrian forces might have something to do with this. Does Putin believe that stuff is in Syria? Is that what he was told?

Thinking about how this could go sideways. For example, if Russia's situation becomes more desperate ... Putin rolls the dice and launches cruise missiles into a Polish resupply base ... does NATO respond in kind (equivalency) or does NATO double down and take out a Russian asset twice as valuable? And so forth ...

Dan Scott said:

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Bloomberg reporting that Australia is investing $7.5b for a base for nuclear submarines because the Ukraine war will inevitably come to the Pacific.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-03-06/australia-to-build-new-7-4-billion-base-for-nuclear-submarines?utm_source=google&utm_medium=bd&cmpId=google

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This has been planned for a while. Has less to do with Ukraine and more to do with long-term planning.

benchmark said:

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Thinking about how this could go sideways. For example, if Russia's situation becomes more desperate ... Putin rolls the dice and launches cruise missiles into a Polish resupply base ... does NATO respond in kind (equivalency) or does NATO double down and take out a Russian asset twice as valuable? And so forth ...

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Get familiar with the term Suwalki Gap. That's the probably the next flashpoint.

Pretty generic report. SIAP.

A senior U.S. defense official just released an updated assessment of the war in Ukraine as of early Sunday evening in Washington. Basic updates:

— Dan Lamothe (@DanLamothe) March 6, 2022

bonfarr said:

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Do the Ukrainians have high altitude SAM missile batteries? With the Russkies switching to high altitude bombing with dumb bombs the shoulder launched missiles obviously won't help.

I read that Poland has some Patriot missiles I wonder if they can be sent to Ukraine but no idea how that works and if the Ukrainians could integrate those with their existing air defense.

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They had some S-300s (high altitude, long range) and some medium range (Buk, etc.). A few days into the war some of the S-300s were still operational, but not sure about now. Russia has had a hell of a time knocking out their mobile air defenses. They've also confiscated several Russian anti-air assets, which they may be able to use.

The Patriot is a completely different system than what they are used to operating and would require extensive training. Deployment of Patriot is not a simple task as it's a pretty complicated system.

Ukraine/Russia: Confirmation to the southwest of Kharkiv Ukrainian forces have retaken Chuhuiv.

— The Cavell Group (@TCG_CrisisRisks) March 7, 2022

Demosthenes81 said:

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benchmark said:

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Thinking about how this could go sideways. For example, if Russia's situation becomes more desperate ... Putin rolls the dice and launches cruise missiles into a Polish resupply base ... does NATO respond in kind (equivalency) or does NATO double down and take out a Russian asset twice as valuable? And so forth ...

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Get familiar with the term Suwalki Gap. That's the probably the next flashpoint.

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Suwalki is very worrisome but probably not an immediate threat. Russia has it's hands full in Ukraine. IMO, the near term concern is another Putin miscalculation that escalates.

Moldova is next. That's a near-certainty.

Next move probably involves a proxy, my guess is Serbia. Hungary has long teetered back and forth from Russian influence and NATO has already started efforts to solidify them. The wrong series of events could see them withdraw so the pathway to Slovenia and then most dangerously, a "neutral" Switzerland. Putin is an expert at political gamesmanship. This would effectively force NATO to go on the offensive which would "justify" the fear based offensive and lead the way to the use/positioning of tactical nuclear weapons deep in NATOs back yard.

Obviously that's total conjecture without any more info than anyone else has. All that being said, this whole thing has been a mess for Russia. They may not make it to Lviv, much less Geneva.

Ukraine/Russia: Ukrainian Forces small arms contact with Russian units near Peremoha this morning. Russian mechanised units moving south with some small villages and roads secured by Russian units. Looks like SOF near Peremoha trying to find route towards Kyiv Boryspil airport 👀

— The Cavell Group (@TCG_CrisisRisks) March 7, 2022

Demosthenes81 said:

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benchmark said:

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Thinking about how this could go sideways. For example, if Russia's situation becomes more desperate ... Putin rolls the dice and launches cruise missiles into a Polish resupply base ... does NATO respond in kind (equivalency) or does NATO double down and take out a Russian asset twice as valuable? And so forth ...

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Get familiar with the term Suwalki Gap. That's the probably the next flashpoint.

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That explains all the attention by the global hawk and at times one of the awacs up there. IMO moldavo was next but given their challenges in UKR, I think he is thinking now outside the box and not sure what that is. Might be long range missiles into all the bridges & rail in west UKR coming from Poland to cut off supply and evacuation. It also forces the west to intensify.

benchmark said:

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Demosthenes81 said:

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benchmark said:

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Thinking about how this could go sideways. For example, if Russia's situation becomes more desperate ... Putin rolls the dice and launches cruise missiles into a Polish resupply base ... does NATO respond in kind (equivalency) or does NATO double down and take out a Russian asset twice as valuable? And so forth ...

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Get familiar with the term Suwalki Gap. That's the probably the next flashpoint.

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Suwalki is very worrisome but probably not an immediate threat. Russia has it's hands full in Ukraine. IMO, the near term concern is another Putin miscalculation that escalates.

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Yes the land bridge to Kaliningrad is important. I felt the same way 12 days ago. Now I really don't.

Another good thread from General Ryan

Eleven days since the Russian invasion of Ukraine began. In the past 24 hours, we have seen limited Russian progress in the north and east, and another broken Russian ‘ceasefire’. Today - the war in the south, and why it matters. 1/25 pic.twitter.com/UDMXTaunId

— Major General (just retired!) Mick Ryan (@WarintheFuture) March 7, 2022

Global Hawk long mission over Med...

More fake news from Russia.

Russia reporting that Ukraine has rigged a reactor at the Kharkov Institute of Physics & Technology to stage a provocation and accuse the Russian Armed Forces of launching a missile attack on the experimental nuclear facility

— DEFCONWarningSystem (@DEFCONWSALERTS) March 7, 2022