Demosthenes81 said:

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aggiehawg said:

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Exactly what I was about to ask. No units near Odessa? Guess not. Could be weather related, no?

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Or it could be the Russians have not accounted for the land based Neptune anti-ship missiles that Ukraine is reported to have.

A battery of these could really ruin a ship captain's day.

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NVM, I see above.

I belive around 250km or little over 160 miles

Like we expected anything different but this seals it. Going to be a full win/lose scenario.

⚡️ Russia to stop war only if Ukraine surrenders, meets Russia's demands.

Vladimir Putin said that Russia is ready to negotiate after “all known Russian demands are met.”

— The Kyiv Independent (@KyivIndependent) March 6, 2022

"Kharkiv on fire. Pray for us!" https://t.co/IFP8Eb8STo

— The Intel Crab (@IntelCrab) March 6, 2022

Heavy attack reported on Kharkiv, Ukraine now. pic.twitter.com/KwWzMLrAcd

— Moshe Schwartz (@YWNReporter) March 6, 2022

That looks more like an air dropped bomb than a missile strike to me? Am I way off base as to the type of attack?

Rosstafari said:

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Like we expected anything different but this seals it. Going to be a full win/lose scenario.

⚡️ Russia to stop war only if Ukraine surrenders, meets Russia's demands.

Vladimir Putin said that Russia is ready to negotiate after “all known Russian demands are met.”

— The Kyiv Independent (@KyivIndependent) March 6, 2022

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Why would Russia stop the war without a Ukrainian surrender? They are winning and will eventually control the capital and the vast majority of strategic points not in the far western portion of the country.

If Russia had actually prepared for a fight at the outset instead of thinking this was going to be a 2014-like cake walk, then this thing might be over already. They didn't, and now it's been a calamity for both sides and tens of thousands of non-combatants are going to die.

Blinken: NATO countries have "green light" to send fighter jets to #Ukraine.https://t.co/y0gpVnjb7i

— Disclose.tv (@disclosetv) March 6, 2022

CNN just reported about "secret " base in Poland receiving aid. Coupled with manchin statement had to be leaked. Russian air attack leads to no fly zone?

ttu_85 said:

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rgag12 said:

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Rosstafari said:

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Like we expected anything different but this seals it. Going to be a full win/lose scenario.

⚡️ Russia to stop war only if Ukraine surrenders, meets Russia's demands.

Vladimir Putin said that Russia is ready to negotiate after “all known Russian demands are met.”

— The Kyiv Independent (@KyivIndependent) March 6, 2022

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Why would Russia stop the war without a Ukrainian surrender? They are winning and will eventually control the capital and the vast majority of strategic points not in the far western portion of the country.

If Russia had actually prepared for a fight at the outset instead of thinking this was going to be a 2014-like cake walk, then this thing might be over already. They didn't, and now it's been a calamity for both sides and tens of thousands of non-combatants are going to die.

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1. large anti war protest and political instability
2. The invasion is costing Russia billions by the day. Both direct and indirect cost.
3. Russia is becoming an international pariah.
4. Their military performance is embarrassing their country.
5. Russia's enemies a gaining bucket loads of intel regarding Russian ware fighting capabilities.


I can see a number of reasons the Russians may want to find a way out of the mess they created

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And even after securing the major cities the fighting will likely continue

jwj said:

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CNN just reported about "secret " base in Poland receiving aid. Coupled with manchin statement had to be leaked. Russian air attack leads to no fly zone?

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The aid had to go somewhere, i don't think it's coordinates are relevant.

And the longer this goes on, the more of a vassal Russia will be to China just to have more political sway in Ukraine. And China will cut a harder deal.

jwj said:

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CNN just reported about "secret " base in Poland receiving aid. Coupled with manchin statement had to be leaked. Russian air attack leads to no fly zone?

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Link to CNN report?

Echoing what you heard - or possibly misheard - on TV isn't particularly helpful.

Ulysses90 said:

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BusterAg said:

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Ulysses90 said:

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Engine10 said:

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Looks like the Ukrainians are effecting some counter battery fire, and won this round. Love to see it

A Russian artillery position near Mykolaiv pic.twitter.com/pcNoCr2twU

— Illia Ponomarenko 🇺🇦 (@IAPonomarenko) March 6, 2022

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That is very, very good. Those D-30s were obviously (to me) located by counter-battery radar or a drone and the Ukrainians concentrated a LOT of fire on that location very suddenly. The ground is so torn up that the guy is having difficulty walking across all the shell craters. There isn't even a blade of grass visible across all those acres and the trees in the background have been completely denuded like the pictures of the western front in WW I. It looks like the Ukrainians used a mix of point detonating (because of the engine blocks removed from the truck chasses) and airburst fuzing.

If the Ukrainians are able to rapidly displace to a new firing position after firing counter battery missions they can survive and beat their Russian artillerist opponents. At this point it seems doubtful that the Russians even bothered to send counter battery radar with their battalions because they thought it would be a one sided fight. The Russian ability to use radio comms to coordinate fire support for maneuver units or counter battery fires has not been evident in anything I have read so far.

I hope that they get some of these Ukrainian artillerists to lecture at Ft Sill. They have a lot to teach us about this fight.

Saint Barbara fights on the side of Ukraine in this skirmish.

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Do any of those cannons look like they are still in operable position? Would be a pretty nice catch if so. I'm not smart enough to tell from the video.

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The breeches and tubes are probably fine but the fire control devices for leveling and aiming them will need to be replaced. Interestingly, none of the guns are flipped over and they all appear to be laying on the azimuth of fire with the tubes still close to parallel.

The hydraulic cylinders (on top of the gun tube under the shroud) that absorb the recoil probably got ruptured on a few of them but these are commodity items in the former eastern bloc. The Ukrainians have those parts somewhere if they want to put them in action. There are a lot of usable 122mm projectiles laying on the ground that can be salvaged if the Ukrainians need them. If this drags out for a long time I expect they will want to salvage that type of materiel.

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Mostly air bursts it looks to me and i was wondering if the russians fired on themselves.

Rosstafari said:

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The French were wrong. I'm shocked.

Chief of the defence staff admits mistakes of French intelligence:
«The Americans said the Russians were going to attack, they were right. Our services thought that the conquest of Ukraine would have monstrous costs and that the Russians had other options» https://t.co/P710k8wkLf

— Ulrike Franke (@RikeFranke) March 6, 2022

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Yeah I mean sure it's gonna cost Russia loads and the other option was stay home. But yeah it seemed so obvious they were gonna attack

Keegan99 said:

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jwj said:

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CNN just reported about "secret " base in Poland receiving aid. Coupled with manchin statement had to be leaked. Russian air attack leads to no fly zone?

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Link to CNN report?

Echoing what you heard - or possibly misheard - on TV isn't particularly helpful.

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It's on the cnn website


Just type in cnn.com and scroll down a couple of stories. It's right there.

Here's a CNN article I found:

https://www.cnn.com/2022/03/06/politics/mark-milley-ukraine-military-assistance/index.html

Ukraine/Russia: Concerns of an amphibious landing Odesa region, but nothing to suggest anything imminent. Vessels still some distance out and they prefer daylight landing Ops. Not likely tonight.

— The Cavell Group (@TCG_CrisisRisks) March 6, 2022

Russia is recruiting Syrians for urban combat in Ukraine, U.S. officials say https://t.co/LF3wLQgWTe via @WSJ

— toomas hendrik ilves (@IlvesToomas) March 6, 2022

Quote:

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Moscow is recruiting Syrians skilled in urban combat to fight in Ukraine as Russia's invasion is poised to expand deeper into cities, according to U.S. officials.

An American assessment indicates that Russia, which has been operating inside Syria since 2015, has in recent days been recruiting fighters from there, hoping their expertise in urban combat can help take Kyiv and deal a devastating blow to the Ukraine government, according to four American officials. The move points to a potential escalation of fighting in Ukraine, experts said.

It is unclear how many fighters have been identified, but some are already in Russia preparing to enter the conflict, according to one official.

Officials declined to elaborate on what else is known about the deployment of Syrian fighters to Ukraine, the status or precise scale of the effort.

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Unconfirmed reports that Ukrainian forces have retaken #Chuhuiv. https://t.co/zJBq6r1sLO

— The Intel Crab (@IntelCrab) March 6, 2022

I think some more air space will be shut down between Syria and Ukraine. Will Iraq let them cross their air space?

This is quite strange. What the hell are they using Rosgvardia for in a frontline…. https://t.co/qhq8uKgMKT

— Nuno Felix (@Felix_Nuno) March 6, 2022

Rick Flex said:

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TRM said:

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Ukraine/Russia: Ukrainian Official now says Russian ground forces now have enough around Kyiv to move on the city in the next few days.

— The Cavell Group (@TCG_CrisisRisks) March 6, 2022

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Not good. I keep thinking the international reinforcements will come in from the west and perhaps start hitting the Russians from the back side as they try to encircle Kyiv.

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Not good at all. Have to break that line. How did Russia pull that off?

You mean Turkey? I believe they have permission to fly over their airspace or they could fly around it to Crimea.

But will they be able to coordinate any attacks between groups?

Rosstafari said:

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This is quite strange. What the hell are they using Rosgvardia for in a frontline…. https://t.co/qhq8uKgMKT

— Nuno Felix (@Felix_Nuno) March 6, 2022

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To the Twitter commentary:

There's no indication that convoy was on the "front line". A sign of things to come for the Russians, seizing the cities is unlikely to stop attacks on convoys

Rosstafari said:

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This is quite strange. What the hell are they using Rosgvardia for in a frontline…. https://t.co/qhq8uKgMKT

— Nuno Felix (@Felix_Nuno) March 6, 2022

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They thought Ukraine would capitulate quickly.

This is their riot police/peacekeeping force. Not really meant for ground combat.

Russia really overestimated how much the population would support them. Makes me curious about what they planned in terms of members of the opposition inside Ukraine trying to pull off some sort of coup in the first day or two. Russia's problems escalated as soon as Z-man went public saying he was in charge and not fleeing.

Seems yet another Confirmed Russian AF Helicopter that was shot down, this looks to be a Mi-24 (HIND) Attack Gunship that was shot down yesterday near Kyiv. pic.twitter.com/mM2dRZVld7

— OSINTdefender (@sentdefender) March 6, 2022

Where are all the Russians from these destroyed convoys??! I have seen a few videos with dead Russian but the majority are just of abandoned vehicles… dis they run into the forest, captured, surrendered?? It's just odd the volume of videos with destroyed/captured Russian convoys there are no Ruskies…

Waffledynamics said:

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Rick Flex said:

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TRM said:

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Ukraine/Russia: Ukrainian Official now says Russian ground forces now have enough around Kyiv to move on the city in the next few days.

— The Cavell Group (@TCG_CrisisRisks) March 6, 2022

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Not good. I keep thinking the international reinforcements will come in from the west and perhaps start hitting the Russians from the back side as they try to encircle Kyiv.

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Not good at all. Have to break that line. How did Russia pull that off?

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A retired senior military official was on Fox today with an explanation.

He basically said that Russia is trying to extend their forces to see how far they can penetrate. Perhaps to see if there are "soft spots" in the Ukrainian defense. On the surface, without hard intel, he said this is clumsy and dangerous for the Russians without proper supply lines. It appears desperate.

He said that the Russians are increasing their objectives without increasing support and thus, stretching resources. He couldn't comprehend the logic aside from taking one big, unbridle swing at Ukraine - which, again, seems desperate.

FJB said:

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Blinken: NATO countries have "green light" to send fighter jets to #Ukraine.https://t.co/y0gpVnjb7i

— Disclose.tv (@disclosetv) March 6, 2022

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This might be the beginning of the feared escalation depending on how putin responds. He's already said he'd consider it an act of war.

He also said he considers the sanctions an act of war

He can say all he wants, but he if responds militarily, we're all in for a world of hurt.

BonsaiGreen said:

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Waffledynamics said:

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Rick Flex said:

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TRM said:

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Ukraine/Russia: Ukrainian Official now says Russian ground forces now have enough around Kyiv to move on the city in the next few days.

— The Cavell Group (@TCG_CrisisRisks) March 6, 2022

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Not good. I keep thinking the international reinforcements will come in from the west and perhaps start hitting the Russians from the back side as they try to encircle Kyiv.

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Not good at all. Have to break that line. How did Russia pull that off?

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A retired senior military official was on Fox today with an explanation.

He basically said that Russia is trying to extend their forces to see how far they can penetrate. Perhaps to see if there are "soft spots" in the Ukrainian defense. On the surface, without hard intel, he said this is clumsy and dangerous for the Russians without proper supply lines. It appears desperate.

He said that the Russians are increasing their objectives without increasing support and thus, stretching resources. He couldn't comprehend the logic aside from taking one big, unbridle swing at Ukraine - which, again, seems desperate.

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In that case, it sounds more like the Bear reaching an outstretched paw rather than having found a big opening for the full body. Not as bad as it seems. Why does it seem like they're more prepared to move on Kyiv with this, though?