***Russian - Ukraine War Tactical and Strategic Updates*** [Warning on OP]

7,637,199 Views | 47866 Replies | Last: 18 hrs ago by EastSideAg2002
LMCane
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wangus12 said:

That's how I took it. We're replacing planes because Poland is giving theirs
the backlog with Lockheed Martin is for F-35 Lightning II not for old obsolescent F-16s

I am sure there are ANG units which are about to move away from F-16D or E which they can give to Poland until they buy F-35.
CondensedFogAggie
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Is the ATN brand pretty good for those in the know?
rab79
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AG
CondensedFoggyAggie said:



Is the ATN brand pretty good for those in the know?
bottom of the line cheapest...
NO AMNESTY!

in order for democrats, liberals, progressives et al to continue their illogical belief systems they have to pretend not to know a lot of things; by pretending "not to know" there is no guilt, no actual connection to conscience. Denial of truth allows easier trespass.
aezmvp
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Red Pear Realty said:

Check out that mud


https://ww2-history.fandom.com/wiki/Rasputitsa_(Definition)

This is a known thing. The areas in the South are significantly drier. That's why the armies in the North and East are so road bound. They're extremely vulnerable to the ambushes because of this and will be for 4-6 more weeks.
erudite
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A redditor may or may not have just gotten a bunch of Ukrainians killed for upvotes.

Guess what happens when you post pictures of people staging in schools? Russians flatten every school in combat radius.
14 killed in school shortly after posted to reddit.
Social media is the downfall of society.


GORE WARNING:
fullback44
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erudite said:

A redditor may or may not have just gotten a bunch of Ukrainians killed for upvotes.

Guess what happens when you post pictures of people staging in schools? Russians flatten every school in combat radius.
Social media is the downfall of society.


GORE WARNING:



That's over a week old already .. was debunked I believe
LMCane
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EMY92 said:

JobSecurity said:

Military/aero guys - what's the lead time on an F16? Dumb question but I assume we don't keep 'excess' that we could sell immediately?

It takes a long time to learn how to effectively fight with an aircraft. Just because they are pilots, they don't know how to use the F-16 in a fight. I'm sure that an intensive 1 month training could get them to the point they'd have a chance to survive.

There is also the logistical side. Can their Soviet era refueling equipment work on an F-16. What about weapons? Tools for the maintenance crews? Spare parts, the list goes on. It's not like going to the rental counter and picking up a car brand that you don't own.
You aren't reading the news before typing a response. These are NOT F-16s going to Ukraine,

they would be going to Poland (who already uses F-16) so that POLAND can send MIG 29 fighters to Ukraine.
Who?mikejones!
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That's from a few days ago. I think, iirc, some saboteurs went in to "join" the resistance and opened up on the gaggle
TRM
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AG
Different gyms.
LMCane
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javajaws said:

htownag10 said:

I guess the meeting with Russia and Israel didn't go well




That's not good. Sounding like Putin might be totally off his rocker.
keeping this to strategy discussion:

It may be that Russia is anticipating to close their borders and enact counter measures against the West

Bennett is worried that the Israeli citizens will be stuck in an imploding country with no way to get out after Putin really slams shut the borders.

it could be that Putin told Bennett he was going to shut the borders. Didn't the US State Department urge Americans to leave a few days ago? This could be indicative that Putin is willing to retaliate for sanctions
erudite
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Agthatbuilds said:

That's from a few days ago. I think, iirc, some saboteurs went in to "join" the resistance and opened up on the gaggle
I hate this new generation of information warfare.

Probably still what gave the RU army justification to start shelling the schools.
Keegan99
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AG
Good thread from a recently retired US General.

JobSecurity
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HTownAg98
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Tom Nichols, voice of reason, is spot on yet again. A thread:

TRM
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erudite
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https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1500296791178285059?cxt=HHwWhsC4_fH-j9IpAAAA
Waffledynamics
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AG
JobSecurity said:




Gotta be very careful here, Ukes. Don't feed Russian propaganda.
BlueMiles
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Remove the trailing question mark and everything after it and it will expand the link for you.
GarryowenAg
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erudite said:

https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1500296791178285059?cxt=HHwWhsC4_fH-j9IpAAAA

A little help

JobSecurity
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RebelE Infantry
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Ag In Ok said:

aggiehawg said:




I am missing the Ukrainian statements that they are about to encircle Russian forces


There's not going to be a UKR encirclement of RU forces beyond the tactical level. RU continues to tighten on a strategic encirclement they call a "cauldron" in the Donbas region. This is where the bulk of UKRs best forces are, at least E of the Dnieper. If they don't beat feet back to the west towards Kiev and do it quickly, RU will have neutralized UKR maneuver forces in the eastern half of the country. Even as it stands, they will have to pull off a fighting retreat, which is always costly.

I'm not sure what the UKR high command's thinking is here. The RU strategy for the maneuver war is becoming clear, but I can't figure out if UKR is leaving those guys in the Donbas to delay the advance as long as possible or if they think they can somehow beat back the Russians across the border.

The RU southern and SE front is moving remarkably fast now that they have linked up at Mariupol. The big question is what the UKR order of battle looks like in the western part of the country.
Charpie
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AG
clw04
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CondensedFogAggie
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Damn
Ag In Ok
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AG
Agreed - unless there is a flow of trigger pullers and better equipment that Far East, i would expect a pulling back to the river. But they aren't. I don't see it.

I also don't believe Russia is about to run out of everything, they just sent moving in that manner. If it were true and they were being somewhat effectively counter attacked, it would show. Plain as day.
CondensedFogAggie
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Trident, nice one.
Jayhawk
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There is no way Russia is running out of fuel, vehicles, food, etc. There is no doubt that given enough time the Russian military will wear out the Ukrainian armed forces by attrition, regardless of the number of casualties they are forced to absorb.

Ukraine's best hope for something like a victory is for Russia's money supply to run out. Russia's weak spot is not its poor tactics or apparently non-existent operational planning or its equipment, its the finite amount of cash that Moscow has to pay for this. The Ukrainians win by drawing this out as long as possible and then, if they can keep the will to fight, by making it a brutal and expensive occupation. No amount of purely military successes will win this for Ukraine, but turning it into a massive financial ulcer is a viable path toward victory.
Eliminatus
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Jayhawk said:

There is no way Russia is running out of fuel, vehicles, food, etc. There is no doubt that given enough time the Russian military will wear out the Ukrainian armed forces by attrition, regardless of the number of casualties they are forced to absorb.

Ukraine's best hope for something like a victory is for Russia's money supply to run out. Russia's weak spot is not its poor tactics or apparently non-existent operational planning or its equipment, its the finite amount of cash that Moscow has to pay for this. The Ukrainians win by drawing this out as long as possible and then, if they can keep the will to fight, by making it a brutal and expensive occupation. No amount of purely military successes will win this for Ukraine, but turning it into a massive financial ulcer is a viable path toward victory.


I am not sure you know how logistics work. Not being facetious either. The main battle of logistics is getting the stuff where it needs to be at the time it needs to be there. That isn't happening in Ukraine, for several known reasons and a couple unknown. Verifiable. You may be right and it won't matter in the end, but wars have turned due to that very point I just made. No matter how powerful on paper. Operation Barbarossa is a screaming example of this.

Also, both things can be true ya know.
clw04
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Jayhawk said:

There is no way Russia is running out of fuel, vehicles, food, etc. There is no doubt that given enough time the Russian military will wear out the Ukrainian armed forces by attrition, regardless of the number of casualties they are forced to absorb.

Ukraine's best hope for something like a victory is for Russia's money supply to run out. Russia's weak spot is not its poor tactics or apparently non-existent operational planning or its equipment, its the finite amount of cash that Moscow has to pay for this. The Ukrainians win by drawing this out as long as possible and then, if they can keep the will to fight, by making it a brutal and expensive occupation. No amount of purely military successes will win this for Ukraine, but turning it into a massive financial ulcer is a viable path toward victory.
Ukraine was never going to win this as a conventional battle. It appears the strategy is to try and hold Russians to urban fighting and attack the back at night with SOF and other highly trained forces. It seems that Ukrain is trying to try up Russian resources at the cities and use NATO ISR to strategically counter-attack at night.
CondensedFogAggie
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Quote:

A week or so ago, Sergey Nevstruyev, a 59-year-old father of four and grandfather of three who owns construction and remodeling businesses in North Carolina, was in his home in Charlotte, watching the horrific images of Vladimir Putin's illegal attack on Ukraine. Today he is in Kyiv, serving as a major in a Ukrainian brigade

He requested basic supplies for Ukrainian fighters: helmets, gloves, body armor, and medical supplies. "We don't need NATO troops," Nevstruyev said. But to do that we need help. It's very important this help comes as soon as possible. We don't need it tomorrow. We need it today."

When Nevstruyev departed Charlotte for Europe, he did not tell his wife that he was heading to the war zone. His cover story was that he would be doing humanitarian work in Poland. She asked, why are you taking a bullet-proof vest? "She knew," he said.
https://www.motherjones.com/politics/2022/03/a-message-from-an-american-fighting-in-ukraine/

Godspeed Sergey
Jayhawk
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Eliminatus said:

Jayhawk said:

There is no way Russia is running out of fuel, vehicles, food, etc. There is no doubt that given enough time the Russian military will wear out the Ukrainian armed forces by attrition, regardless of the number of casualties they are forced to absorb.

Ukraine's best hope for something like a victory is for Russia's money supply to run out. Russia's weak spot is not its poor tactics or apparently non-existent operational planning or its equipment, its the finite amount of cash that Moscow has to pay for this. The Ukrainians win by drawing this out as long as possible and then, if they can keep the will to fight, by making it a brutal and expensive occupation. No amount of purely military successes will win this for Ukraine, but turning it into a massive financial ulcer is a viable path toward victory.


I am not sure you know how logistics work. Not being facetious either. The main battle of logistics is getting the stuff where it needs to be at the time it needs to be there. That isn't happening in Ukraine, for several known reasons and a couple unknown. Verifiable. You may be right and it won't matter in the end, but wars have turned due to that very point I just made. No matter how powerful on paper. Operation Barbarossa is a screaming example of this.

Also, both things can be true ya know.
I know how logistics work.... The Russians have had far bigger logstics FUBARs than this in their history. They have that column stuck north of Kyiv, I imagine it is an absolute goat rope at the moment. BUT, the Ukrainians do not have the capability to remove it from the battlefield. So whether it takes weeks or months, those forces, even in degraded condition will still be there by the time the Russians figure out how to get diesel flowing, which eventually they will. And don't get me wrong, I am not saying this is going to be resolved by the Russians in a competent way. Just that it will eventually be resolved in a ... Russian way. Which means absurd levels of casualties, insane amount of material losses and waste, but ultimately overpowering to their outnumbered and outgunned opponent. But that is IF they don't lose the ability to pay for force sustainment first, which in my view is truly the Russians biggest weakness.
TheEternalPessimist
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CondensedFoggyAggie said:


Quote:

A week or so ago, Sergey Nevstruyev, a 59-year-old father of four and grandfather of three who owns construction and remodeling businesses in North Carolina, was in his home in Charlotte, watching the horrific images of Vladimir Putin's illegal attack on Ukraine. Today he is in Kyiv, serving as a major in a Ukrainian brigade

He requested basic supplies for Ukrainian fighters: helmets, gloves, body armor, and medical supplies. "We don't need NATO troops," Nevstruyev said. But to do that we need help. It's very important this help comes as soon as possible. We don't need it tomorrow. We need it today."

When Nevstruyev departed Charlotte for Europe, he did not tell his wife that he was heading to the war zone. His cover story was that he would be doing humanitarian work in Poland. She asked, why are you taking a bullet-proof vest? "She knew," he said.
https://www.motherjones.com/politics/2022/03/a-message-from-an-american-fighting-in-ukraine/

Godspeed Sergey
Godspeed Sergey.

F David Corn and Mother Jones though.

Strategically speaking of course......
--

"The Kingdom is for HE that can TAKE IT!" - Alexander
Jayhawk
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clw04 said:

Jayhawk said:

There is no way Russia is running out of fuel, vehicles, food, etc. There is no doubt that given enough time the Russian military will wear out the Ukrainian armed forces by attrition, regardless of the number of casualties they are forced to absorb.

Ukraine's best hope for something like a victory is for Russia's money supply to run out. Russia's weak spot is not its poor tactics or apparently non-existent operational planning or its equipment, its the finite amount of cash that Moscow has to pay for this. The Ukrainians win by drawing this out as long as possible and then, if they can keep the will to fight, by making it a brutal and expensive occupation. No amount of purely military successes will win this for Ukraine, but turning it into a massive financial ulcer is a viable path toward victory.
Ukraine was never going to win this as a conventional battle. It appears the strategy is to try and hold Russians to urban fighting and attack the back at night with SOF and other highly trained forces. It seems that Ukrain is trying to try up Russian resources at the cities and use NATO ISR to strategically counter-attack at night.
Yeah I see it the same way based on what we have access to in the open sources. Makes sense as far as a tactical approach. I hope the Ukrainians can keep those apparently excellent fighting units in high cohesion and combat effectiveness, even if it means that eventually they have to become highly mobile and removed from any kind of continuous FLOT.
Eliminatus
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AG
Jayhawk said:

Eliminatus said:

Jayhawk said:

There is no way Russia is running out of fuel, vehicles, food, etc. There is no doubt that given enough time the Russian military will wear out the Ukrainian armed forces by attrition, regardless of the number of casualties they are forced to absorb.

Ukraine's best hope for something like a victory is for Russia's money supply to run out. Russia's weak spot is not its poor tactics or apparently non-existent operational planning or its equipment, its the finite amount of cash that Moscow has to pay for this. The Ukrainians win by drawing this out as long as possible and then, if they can keep the will to fight, by making it a brutal and expensive occupation. No amount of purely military successes will win this for Ukraine, but turning it into a massive financial ulcer is a viable path toward victory.


I am not sure you know how logistics work. Not being facetious either. The main battle of logistics is getting the stuff where it needs to be at the time it needs to be there. That isn't happening in Ukraine, for several known reasons and a couple unknown. Verifiable. You may be right and it won't matter in the end, but wars have turned due to that very point I just made. No matter how powerful on paper. Operation Barbarossa is a screaming example of this.

Also, both things can be true ya know.
I know how logistics work.... The Russians have had far bigger logstics FUBARs than this in their history. They have that column stuck north of Kyiv, I imagine it is an absolute goat rope at the moment. BUT, the Ukrainians do not have the capability to remove it from the battlefield. So whether it takes weeks or months, those forces, even in degraded condition will still be there by the time the Russians figure out how to get diesel flowing, which eventually they will. And don't get me wrong, I am not saying this is going to be resolved by the Russians in a competent way. Just that it will eventually be resolved in a ... Russian way. Which means absurd levels of casualties, insane amount of material losses and waste, but ultimately overpowering to their outnumbered and outgunned opponent. But that is IF they don't lose the ability to pay for force sustainment first, which in my view is truly the Russians biggest weakness.


Aye, you are for sure right on the ability to keep it going. And that is where I am confused because we are still not seeing that level of response from Russia. They are trickling in forces piecemeal at this moment.

There is definitely a slider of variables here of Russian stability and commitment vs Uke ability to buy time. At some point it lines up to a Uke survival. At others it goes to Russian victory (whatever that looks like).

We are talking the same point from different angles I think. We both know Russia should be able to win this, even in "Russian" fashion. We just don't know if they will, or even can in the coming weeks and months.
74OA
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AG
LMCane said:

wangus12 said:

That's how I took it. We're replacing planes because Poland is giving theirs
the backlog with Lockheed Martin is for F-35 Lightning II not for old obsolescent F-16s

I am sure there are ANG units which are about to move away from F-16D or E which they can give to Poland until they buy F-35.
A number of our NATO allies are retiring their F-16s as they receive F-35s.

Perhaps those F-16s could go to Poland as backfill for sending its MIG-29s to Ukraine.

Poland already operates F-16s, so it would be an easy transition.
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