The last few days the Russians have had a very very heavy focus on destroying or controlling key infrastructure within Ukraine. For two main reasons to further degrade living situations as well as limit capability to communicate. https://t.co/Fta3NRjIPU
More about the push northwest of Kyiv and the power plant.
This is also where Antonov Airport is located, where some of the Most Severe Fighting of the War so far occurred in the first few days of the Invasion.
We are now entering the most dangerous phase of the #UkraineRussianWar#Russia can’t financially or logistically sustain another 9 days like the last 9 days
And #Putin can’t survive being humiliated or being seen as backing down
I wonder if there is any actual intent to do an amphibious landing. Perhaps they unloaded in Crimea and have been sailing around as a diversion to try to tie up Ukrainian forces.
"The logic of nuclear deterrence and mutually assured destruction has not changed" and six other strategic lessons from the opening days of the war in Ukraine. https://t.co/2DHylhxk7I
— Modern War Institute (@WarInstitute) March 5, 2022
I wonder if there is any actual intent to do an amphibious landing. Perhaps they unloaded in Crimea and have been sailing around as a diversion to try to tie up Ukrainian forces.
You might be on to something here.
In addition to prohibitive weather conditions, the beaches of Odesa have been heavily mined and the city is armed with multiple Neptune anti-ship cruise missile systems. I can't imagine the Russians are willing to risk one of their warships being sunk. Those are obviously much more difficult & expensive to replace than the tanks & aircraft they've lost.
I think they had a small window at the beginning of this invasion to launch an amphibious assault and they missed it.
Sources are claiming that the Ukrainian Counteroffensive in the Kharkiv Region has been Successful in pushing Russian Forces back over the Russian Border to the East, the Russian 144th Guards Motor Rifle Division was reported to have been Completely Destroyed in the fighting.
Quick update it seem the Unit that was actually wiped out was the 488th Motor Rifle Regiment a part of the 144th which is still around 1,600 Troops. https://t.co/Vp7NiVphOq
#Ukraine: Ukrainian TDF receiving more thermal optics; including ATNI X-Sight LTV 5-15X, ATNI Mars LT etc. These are extremely useful. pic.twitter.com/5nVtzra164
I assumed Russia would have a ton of night vision. Obviously they don't.
About 5,000 thermal scopes in Kyev right now would be killer. Brave guerrilla troops armed with these for nightly counter attacks would be devastating.
66224. That's how many men returned from abroad at this moment to defend their Country from the horde. These are 12 more combat and motivated brigades 🇺🇦! Ukrainians, we are invincible! #FightLikeUkrainian
#Ukraine: Ukrainian TDF receiving more thermal optics; including ATNI X-Sight LTV 5-15X, ATNI Mars LT etc. These are extremely useful. pic.twitter.com/5nVtzra164
I assumed Russia would have a ton of night vision. Obviously they don't.
About 5,000 thermal scopes in Kyev right now would be killer. Brave guerrilla troops armed with these for nightly counter attacks would be devastating.
I didn't either but I have been keeping an eye out last couple of days and I have yet to see one Russian soldier with NVG mounts on their helmets. Not even their airborne. Doesn't discount weapon and vehicle mounted of course but it is a huge indicator of the overall capabilities of a typical mechanized infantry unit.
Example of Russia:
At least the Ukes have them for their SF guys (even if given to them by us)
Night vision capability at the small unit level is such a combat multiplier that to forgo it's use has to mean logistics and training deficiencies. No country would knowingly not use them, if they have the capacity to do so.
66224. That's how many men returned from abroad at this moment to defend their Country from the horde. These are 12 more combat and motivated brigades 🇺🇦! Ukrainians, we are invincible! #FightLikeUkrainian
I have a bad feeling about this. Russia will use this humanitarian corridor to claim that "all civilians have now been evacuated." This will be their excuse to completely level these cities with bombs & artillery, since "only combatants are remaining in the city."
Hope I'm wrong, but Russia has done this before:
Humanitarian corridor Russian style is to first massacre those who leave because it's easier when they have left their shelters, then declare all those left in the town combatants and level the whole city to get to them. Check Aleppo and Grozny. https://t.co/T8tmZNK1Gd
Looks like an M24/35 or a 28 from what I can tell from freeze frame.
Either way, no one survived that and current estimates has each one of those models at <150 airframes in inventory total.
Incredible footage, albeit at the expense of at least 2 men who never had a chance. War is hell.
A stinger I assume?
The Ukes have Stingers and also Strelas and Iglas in their inventories that I know of. Latter two Russian versions but still effective.
Definitely would assume a MANPAD just from conditions on the ground and the corkscrewing motion of it. Hell of a shot. Hit a fuel tank I presume because that was quite a fireball from the missile hit. MANPADS actually have relatively tiny warheads on them that don't normally produce those kinds of fireballs on their own.
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It has now been more than a week since Russia invaded Ukraine. At this stage, early explanations are no longer sufficient and analysts need to ask the big question: Is the Russian Air Force Actually Incapable of Complex Air Operations? https://t.co/aXrwfBI69Y#Ukraine#Russia
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I wonder if there is any actual intent to do an amphibious landing. Perhaps they unloaded in Crimea and have been sailing around as a diversion to try to tie up Ukrainian forces.
Occams Razor
Never attribute to strategy what you can attribute to stupidity/lack of planning when discussing current Russian army
This is their MO from Syria. Declare a humanitarian ceasefire. Kill all civilians who try to leave the city. Declare everyone inside the city a combatant. Kill them too.
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Ukraine's security service has reportedly shot & killed Denis Kireev, a member of the Ukrainian negotiating team, pictured far back on the right in the photo. He was apparently killed while resisting arrest on suspicion of treason, @ukrpravda_news reports. https://t.co/B0kOhWxMmIpic.twitter.com/pFWfXIEFzK
Ukraine's security service has reportedly shot & killed Denis Kireev, a member of the Ukrainian negotiating team, pictured far back on the right in the photo. He was apparently killed while resisting arrest on suspicion of treason, @ukrpravda_news reports. https://t.co/B0kOhWxMmIpic.twitter.com/pFWfXIEFzK