that was the first target on Day one of the Russkie air assault which was beaten back by mobile reserves
74OA said:Russia has a national budget. If it wants to avoid cuts to that budget it needed to sell oil at ~$70 a barrel before the cost of this war and the economic impact of sanctions. As you say, Russian "people programs" are already austere, so any loss of oil revenue will cut those to the bone and also cut into Moscow's military spending, too. My point is saying Russia is okay because it is selling oil at more than it costs to produce it doesn't address how much additional profit is needed to balance its national budget without drastic cuts.hbtheduce said:74OA said:It's not just a matter of being profitable, it's how much profit is needed to balance a producer's national budget. Russia is so dependent on energy revenues it currently needs a minimum of ~$70bl and high export volume to avoid drastic cuts to national spending and hurting people's standard of living. I imagine recouping the billions lost on this war and the sanctions hit to volume will drive its break even point much closer to $100bl in coming years.hbtheduce said:aggiehawg said:Actually, this is a good thing. Forcing them to sell at steep discounts (losing the large profit they were expecting) leads to less production from Russia if the profit margin isn't there. Costs more to extract that they can get on the market.BusterAg said:The American people need to boycott Shell gasoline stations.Irish 2.0 said:Buyer Finally Emerges For Russian Oil Offered At A Record $28 Discount https://t.co/3nHMNTwnRF
— zerohedge (@zerohedge) March 4, 2022
Russia having to sell their oil at massive discount to get it out
When we were energy independent the prices went way down but ours was by oversupply. Their discounts are necessary to move any product at all. Big difference.
A $23 deduct at $110 does not dent their profits at all. Russia's break evens are probably well below $30/bbl, They are just fine at $80.
Now it is less money than would be expected for the possible war machine. But compared prices pre-conflict, the deduct isn't even that heavy.
https://www.spglobal.com/commodity-insights/en/market-insights/latest-news/oil/120221-russia-opec-seen-moving-closer-on-fiscal-breakeven-oil-prices
Russia isn't Saudi. It hasn't hooked their citizens on government handouts nearly to the degree. Their populace aren't a bunch of spoiled oil princes. They will beat their populace into submission and be just fine with cuts.
Captain Positivity said:One of the major lessons from this is that NATO forces could absolutely deal with any sort of Russian offensive into Europe. https://t.co/Jrm7V9qD5T
— OSINTtechnical (@Osinttechnical) March 4, 2022
Eliminatus said:wangus12 said:Irish 2.0 said:
FoxNews just had a guest on that is trapped in a now Russian controlled saying that they're raping and murdering women to try to force Ukrainians to respond.
Probably the Chechens
Who are controlled by the Russians and doing exactly what they were brought to Ukraine to do. The Ukes need take none alive. **** every convention of war. It's extermination. Chechen fighters are not even human to me.
Rant aside, who else can the Russians conceivably tap for troops? We have the Chechens and Belarusians. Cubans?
Red Pear Realty said:#Ukraine: During night fighting this evening, Ukrainian Forces captured another T-80BV from Russian Forces in the vicinity of #Kharkiv. pic.twitter.com/gjGvWmivzl
— 🇺🇦 Ukraine Weapons Tracker (@UAWeapons) March 4, 2022
Ag In Ok said:Red Pear Realty said:#Ukraine: During night fighting this evening, Ukrainian Forces captured another T-80BV from Russian Forces in the vicinity of #Kharkiv. pic.twitter.com/gjGvWmivzl
— 🇺🇦 Ukraine Weapons Tracker (@UAWeapons) March 4, 2022
Night fighting?
He doesn't have to change anything.Salute CornPops Message said:
Obviously not how Putin thought this would go. So what is Putin's calculus here? What does he do/ can he do to change the game?
🇷🇺🇺🇦Unidades especiales chechenas posiblemente en el convoy que se dirige a #Kiev desde el norte.
— RGD (@tgn1162) March 4, 2022
🇬🇧Chechen special units possibly in the convoy heading to Kiev from the north. pic.twitter.com/51z9DUMHpT
Captain Positivity said:
Should be noted, Russia has made extensive progress in the south. Haven't heard much about Odesa since rumors of an amphibious assault yesterday.
They have a land bridge to Crimea now for resupply/reinforcements.
Problem for Ukraine is even if they beat back forces coming from the north, they may not have the forces to try to retake the south without leaving the north and east exposed.
TexAgs identified this days ago, as usual.Captain Positivity said:One of the major lessons from this is that NATO forces could absolutely deal with any sort of Russian offensive into Europe. https://t.co/Jrm7V9qD5T
— OSINTtechnical (@Osinttechnical) March 4, 2022
Agthatbuilds said:
https://news.sky.com/story/sky-news-teams-harrowing-account-of-their-violent-ambush-in-ukraine-this-week-12557585WATCH: Sky News reporters ambushed near Kyiv, injuring one of them pic.twitter.com/zDXGGEwJ40
— BNO News (@BNONews) March 4, 2022
LMCane said:No.Waffledynamics said:TRM said:
That would corroborate some of the maps I posted last night. They retook Marakiv 2 days then moved on Irpin and Gostomel yesterday. From last night here:
https://texags.com/forums/16/topics/3274372/replies/61605227
I'll post a tweet from there: .Update on the situation of #Kyiv
— Santeri Eskola | 🇺🇦 Slava Ukraini! (@Eleskola) March 3, 2022
It appears that the Ukrainian forces have cut off the Russian column also from west side and created a strong foothold in the area. Encirclement is inevitable.
Also they have recaptured #Gostomel airport.https://t.co/lohm174ArV@pmakela1 https://t.co/5ZzCcYqIYb pic.twitter.com/Mo3iO68Tu1
Wait, wait, hold on.
Are they saying the Ukes will encircle the convoy?!
that they counter-attacked along the Kyiv/Zhitomir highway and broke through which would trap some Russian forces who had moved south of that highway
on the maps it is not a large force.
but the point is if the Ukes are able to conduct limited counter offensives that is a very bad sign for the Russkies
CondensedFoggyAggie said:🇷🇺🇺🇦Unidades especiales chechenas posiblemente en el convoy que se dirige a #Kiev desde el norte.
— RGD (@tgn1162) March 4, 2022
🇬🇧Chechen special units possibly in the convoy heading to Kiev from the north. pic.twitter.com/51z9DUMHpT
Is that....some toyota they're riding on?
Damn, not yet day 10 and riding into battle on civilian vehicles.
aezmvp said:Train network is still running.deddog said:How are Ukranians getting food? Think it would be harder for them than for the Ruskiesaezmvp said:If true they're going to start getting rolled back locally. Then if they can't feed those troops it's going to fall completely apart. I'm also expecting that if this is accurate you'll see the Russian exchange not open all next week. At that point you're going to start seeing companies in Russia just laying off staff left, right and center. Once that starts and you see unemployment spike heavily Putin is going to have a really, really tight spot.TRM said:Just spoke to @christogrozev, the man who unmasked Sergei Skripal's and @navalny's assassins. He says this is an accurate quote and assessment. Knowing Christo well, I can't imagine he is winging this. https://t.co/CwhmLa5zbR
— Michael Weiss 🌻 (@michaeldweiss) March 4, 2022
Should elaborate. The problems with issues like IFF or lots of MANPADS and inaccurate long range missiles is that the Russians have largely failed to degrade the Uke's transportation infrastructure. When it became obvious that this was going to be a long war, this should have been priority number one along with communication, internet, etc. Very strange.
This is incredible.
— Chris Strider (@stridinstrider) February 28, 2022
Ukrainian troops recreating the famous 1891 Repin painting "Reply of the Zaporozhian Cossacks."
Part of that letter for context:
"We have no fear of your army; by land and by sea we will battle with thee. F**k thy mother." pic.twitter.com/Abt5MUqiUe
the Ukes need to quickly start destroying parts of the Russian convoy to the northwest of kyiv in the next two daysCaptain Positivity said:
They have room to maneuver down there. Supply lines should theoretically be easier with the landbridge.
If we head it I believe that's true.Agthatbuilds said:Captain Positivity said:One of the major lessons from this is that NATO forces could absolutely deal with any sort of Russian offensive into Europe. https://t.co/Jrm7V9qD5T
— OSINTtechnical (@Osinttechnical) March 4, 2022
Yep, nato would apparently destroy the paper tiger that is Russia.
It would definitely, imo, lead to the use of nuclear weapons as Russia wouldn't have a choice if they wanted to survive.
YouBet said:TexAgs identified this days ago, as usual.Captain Positivity said:One of the major lessons from this is that NATO forces could absolutely deal with any sort of Russian offensive into Europe. https://t.co/Jrm7V9qD5T
— OSINTtechnical (@Osinttechnical) March 4, 2022
New: Zelensky in late night address tonight slams NATO over ruling out no-fly zone. “This is the self-hypnosis of those who are weak, insecure inside, despite the fact they possess weapons many times stronger than we have," he said.
— Natasha Bertrand (@NatashaBertrand) March 4, 2022
How many NATO countries are prepared to fight?Agthatbuilds said:Captain Positivity said:One of the major lessons from this is that NATO forces could absolutely deal with any sort of Russian offensive into Europe. https://t.co/Jrm7V9qD5T
— OSINTtechnical (@Osinttechnical) March 4, 2022
Yep, nato would apparently destroy the paper tiger that is Russia.
It would definitely, imo, lead to the use of nuclear weapons as Russia wouldn't have a choice if they wanted to survive.
Judging from their performance in Ukraine I'm not too worried.ABATTBQ11 said:YouBet said:TexAgs identified this days ago, as usual.Captain Positivity said:One of the major lessons from this is that NATO forces could absolutely deal with any sort of Russian offensive into Europe. https://t.co/Jrm7V9qD5T
— OSINTtechnical (@Osinttechnical) March 4, 2022
There's some conflation there. 18 million served, but the German army was never more than 10 million at any one time and many of those were drafted conscripts. Russia could easily draft conscripts and increase their military size the same way the Germans did.
FIFYW said:
Zelensky really wants other countries to send their sons and daughters to Ukraine to fight anddiehelp save his country.
✍️The ninth day of Russian Invasion - summary of situation on all frontlines, including maps. Available on https://t.co/Br5W3aLzdU #Ukraine #UkraineInvasion #UkraineRussiaWar
— MilitaryLand.net (@Militarylandnet) March 4, 2022
Wasn't even looking at the headcount back then. Was commenting on the obvious ****ting the bed by Russia in Ukraine. They clearly can't take this to a NATO country. They are done.ABATTBQ11 said:YouBet said:TexAgs identified this days ago, as usual.Captain Positivity said:One of the major lessons from this is that NATO forces could absolutely deal with any sort of Russian offensive into Europe. https://t.co/Jrm7V9qD5T
— OSINTtechnical (@Osinttechnical) March 4, 2022
There's some conflation there. 18 million served, but the German army was never more than 10 million at any one time and many of those were drafted conscripts. Russia could easily draft conscripts and increase their military size the same way the Germans did.
Rossticus said:
Zelensky not pulling punches. Just called NATO p***ies.New: Zelensky in late night address tonight slams NATO over ruling out no-fly zone. “This is the self-hypnosis of those who are weak, insecure inside, despite the fact they possess weapons many times stronger than we have," he said.
— Natasha Bertrand (@NatashaBertrand) March 4, 2022
FriscoKid said:
Probably not a smart move. He has the support of the west right now and they are giving him a crapload of weapons to fight Putin. He can't bully NATO into a no-fly agreement.