it is critical that the Ukes maintain control of Gostomel for the airport and basically it's the entrance way to Kyiv from the northwest.

that was the first target on Day one of the Russkie air assault which was beaten back by mobile reserves

74OA said:

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hbtheduce said:

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74OA said:

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hbtheduce said:

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aggiehawg said:

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BusterAg said:

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Irish 2.0 said:

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Buyer Finally Emerges For Russian Oil Offered At A Record $28 Discount https://t.co/3nHMNTwnRF

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) March 4, 2022

Russia having to sell their oil at massive discount to get it out

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The American people need to boycott Shell gasoline stations.

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Actually, this is a good thing. Forcing them to sell at steep discounts (losing the large profit they were expecting) leads to less production from Russia if the profit margin isn't there. Costs more to extract that they can get on the market.

When we were energy independent the prices went way down but ours was by oversupply. Their discounts are necessary to move any product at all. Big difference.

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A $23 deduct at $110 does not dent their profits at all. Russia's break evens are probably well below $30/bbl, They are just fine at $80.

Now it is less money than would be expected for the possible war machine. But compared prices pre-conflict, the deduct isn't even that heavy.

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It's not just a matter of being profitable, it's how much profit is needed to balance a producer's national budget. Russia is so dependent on energy revenues it currently needs a minimum of ~$70bl and high export volume to avoid drastic cuts to national spending and hurting people's standard of living. I imagine recouping the billions lost on this war and the sanctions hit to volume will drive its break even point much closer to $100bl in coming years.
https://www.spglobal.com/commodity-insights/en/market-insights/latest-news/oil/120221-russia-opec-seen-moving-closer-on-fiscal-breakeven-oil-prices

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Russia isn't Saudi. It hasn't hooked their citizens on government handouts nearly to the degree. Their populace aren't a bunch of spoiled oil princes. They will beat their populace into submission and be just fine with cuts.

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Russia has a national budget. If it wants to avoid cuts to that budget it needed to sell oil at ~$70 a barrel before the cost of this war and the economic impact of sanctions. As you say, Russian "people programs" are already austere, so any loss of oil revenue will cut those to the bone and also cut into Moscow's military spending, too. My point is saying Russia is okay because it is selling oil at more than it costs to produce it doesn't address how much additional profit is needed to balance its national budget without drastic cuts.

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Do they have a national debt that they care about?

Serious question, since if they do then it would be in sharp contrast to our own lack of concern about debt. If they have China backing them up like we do then they may not care about balancing their budget.

That's the thing about Russia. They were a growing economy. With the right leadership they might have been downright prosperous. So much potential with natural resources.

Debt to GDP is only 18-20% or so. They defaulted in the late 90's, though.

Captain Positivity said:

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One of the major lessons from this is that NATO forces could absolutely deal with any sort of Russian offensive into Europe. https://t.co/Jrm7V9qD5T

— OSINTtechnical (@Osinttechnical) March 4, 2022

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Yep, nato would apparently destroy the paper tiger that is Russia.

It would definitely, imo, lead to the use of nuclear weapons as Russia wouldn't have a choice if they wanted to survive.

Eliminatus said:

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wangus12 said:

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Irish 2.0 said:

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FoxNews just had a guest on that is trapped in a now Russian controlled saying that they're raping and murdering women to try to force Ukrainians to respond.

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Probably the Chechens

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Who are controlled by the Russians and doing exactly what they were brought to Ukraine to do. The Ukes need take none alive. **** every convention of war. It's extermination. Chechen fighters are not even human to me.

Rant aside, who else can the Russians conceivably tap for troops? We have the Chechens and Belarusians. Cubans?

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they have more forces in Siberia, more forces from Moldova in the Russian Transnistria region.

They have about 1,500 troops in Transnistria. And the Ukes have blown the bridge.

Red Pear Realty said:

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#Ukraine: During night fighting this evening, Ukrainian Forces captured another T-80BV from Russian Forces in the vicinity of #Kharkiv. pic.twitter.com/gjGvWmivzl

— 🇺🇦 Ukraine Weapons Tracker (@UAWeapons) March 4, 2022

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Night fighting?

Moldova should seize the opportunity

Ag In Ok said:

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Red Pear Realty said:

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#Ukraine: During night fighting this evening, Ukrainian Forces captured another T-80BV from Russian Forces in the vicinity of #Kharkiv. pic.twitter.com/gjGvWmivzl

— 🇺🇦 Ukraine Weapons Tracker (@UAWeapons) March 4, 2022

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Night fighting?

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Ukes can, Russians can't (at least not effectively). Tremendous advantage.

Salute CornPops Message said:

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Obviously not how Putin thought this would go. So what is Putin's calculus here? What does he do/ can he do to change the game?

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He doesn't have to change anything.

he keeps feeding in more reinforcements and grinds down the Ukes in a war of attrition

notice that the Russians keep advancing from the Crimea in positions moving south to north and have nearly captured the entire black sea and sea of azov coastlines, now moving into nearly central Ukraine where the nuclear power plants are in Russian hands

🇷🇺🇺🇦Unidades especiales chechenas posiblemente en el convoy que se dirige a #Kiev desde el norte.

🇬🇧Chechen special units possibly in the convoy heading to Kiev from the north. pic.twitter.com/51z9DUMHpT

— RGD (@tgn1162) March 4, 2022

Is that....some toyota they're riding on?

Damn, not yet day 10 and riding into battle on civilian vehicles.

Beat me to it

Captain Positivity said:

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Should be noted, Russia has made extensive progress in the south. Haven't heard much about Odesa since rumors of an amphibious assault yesterday.

They have a land bridge to Crimea now for resupply/reinforcements.

Problem for Ukraine is even if they beat back forces coming from the north, they may not have the forces to try to retake the south without leaving the north and east exposed.

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That's still 350 miles away from Kyiv.

They can try to come up north, but they'll just run out of fuel and gift yet more hardware to the Ukes

They have room to maneuver down there. Supply lines should theoretically be easier with the landbridge.

Agthatbuilds said:

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https://news.sky.com/story/sky-news-teams-harrowing-account-of-their-violent-ambush-in-ukraine-this-week-12557585

WATCH: Sky News reporters ambushed near Kyiv, injuring one of them pic.twitter.com/zDXGGEwJ40

— BNO News (@BNONews) March 4, 2022

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how does yelling in english every time they fire at you help your case?

maybe having flags with words in ukrainian for this exact scenario would have been helpful

LMCane said:

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Waffledynamics said:

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TRM said:

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That would corroborate some of the maps I posted last night. They retook Marakiv 2 days then moved on Irpin and Gostomel yesterday. From last night here:
https://texags.com/forums/16/topics/3274372/replies/61605227

I'll post a tweet from there: .

Update on the situation of #Kyiv

It appears that the Ukrainian forces have cut off the Russian column also from west side and created a strong foothold in the area. Encirclement is inevitable.

Also they have recaptured #Gostomel airport.https://t.co/lohm174ArV@pmakela1 https://t.co/5ZzCcYqIYb pic.twitter.com/Mo3iO68Tu1

— Santeri Eskola | 🇺🇦 Slava Ukraini! (@Eleskola) March 3, 2022

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Wait, wait, hold on.

Are they saying the Ukes will encircle the convoy?!

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No.

that they counter-attacked along the Kyiv/Zhitomir highway and broke through which would trap some Russian forces who had moved south of that highway

on the maps it is not a large force.

but the point is if the Ukes are able to conduct limited counter offensives that is a very bad sign for the Russkies

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Agreed - especially if night vision is crossing the border from Poland. What i am wanting to see is confirmation and the status of their eastern armies flanks. Russia is covering some serious ground from the south.

CondensedFoggyAggie said:

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🇷🇺🇺🇦Unidades especiales chechenas posiblemente en el convoy que se dirige a #Kiev desde el norte.

🇬🇧Chechen special units possibly in the convoy heading to Kiev from the north. pic.twitter.com/51z9DUMHpT

— RGD (@tgn1162) March 4, 2022

Is that....some toyota they're riding on?

Damn, not yet day 10 and riding into battle on civilian vehicles.

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Technicals are a nice soft target. Our guys smoked a ton of those in Somalia.

aezmvp said:

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deddog said:

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aezmvp said:

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TRM said:

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Just spoke to @christogrozev, the man who unmasked Sergei Skripal's and @navalny's assassins. He says this is an accurate quote and assessment. Knowing Christo well, I can't imagine he is winging this. https://t.co/CwhmLa5zbR

— Michael Weiss 🌻 (@michaeldweiss) March 4, 2022

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If true they're going to start getting rolled back locally. Then if they can't feed those troops it's going to fall completely apart. I'm also expecting that if this is accurate you'll see the Russian exchange not open all next week. At that point you're going to start seeing companies in Russia just laying off staff left, right and center. Once that starts and you see unemployment spike heavily Putin is going to have a really, really tight spot.

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How are Ukranians getting food? Think it would be harder for them than for the Ruskies

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Train network is still running.

Should elaborate. The problems with issues like IFF or lots of MANPADS and inaccurate long range missiles is that the Russians have largely failed to degrade the Uke's transportation infrastructure. When it became obvious that this was going to be a long war, this should have been priority number one along with communication, internet, etc. Very strange.

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the food shortage is overplayed- if the Uke civilians have food then the Russian troops are going to steal it from them so that issue cuts both ways

if there is a way to ensure no resupply of fuel and ammo though- that is a much bigger concern for the Rus

Captain Positivity said:

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They have room to maneuver down there. Supply lines should theoretically be easier with the landbridge.

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the Ukes need to quickly start destroying parts of the Russian convoy to the northwest of kyiv in the next two days

then have to move at night their best forces south to crush the Russians moving north (on the west side of the Dnieper) and drive them back to Odessa (where they will be crushed in a vice)

We've supplied them with night vision and have been training them. The first reports of the counteroffensive in Kharkiv was at 3 our time/11 over there. Use the advantage while you have it; plus, the Russian troops are probably tired and hungry.

Agthatbuilds said:

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Captain Positivity said:

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One of the major lessons from this is that NATO forces could absolutely deal with any sort of Russian offensive into Europe. https://t.co/Jrm7V9qD5T

— OSINTtechnical (@Osinttechnical) March 4, 2022

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Yep, nato would apparently destroy the paper tiger that is Russia.

It would definitely, imo, lead to the use of nuclear weapons as Russia wouldn't have a choice if they wanted to survive.

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If we head it I believe that's true.

I can't see France, Germany or Great Britain doing much better than Russia is and they are the strong members of NATO

I do think Turkey could probably be alright but I question their loyalty and willingness to provide support

YouBet said:

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Captain Positivity said:

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One of the major lessons from this is that NATO forces could absolutely deal with any sort of Russian offensive into Europe. https://t.co/Jrm7V9qD5T

— OSINTtechnical (@Osinttechnical) March 4, 2022

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TexAgs identified this days ago, as usual.

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There's some conflation there. 18 million served, but the German army was never more than 10 million at any one time and many of those were drafted conscripts. Russia could easily draft conscripts and increase their military size the same way the Germans did.

Could they outfit them though?

I suppose pre-sanction they could have quietly ramped up war production, but now?

Agthatbuilds said:

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Captain Positivity said:

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One of the major lessons from this is that NATO forces could absolutely deal with any sort of Russian offensive into Europe. https://t.co/Jrm7V9qD5T

— OSINTtechnical (@Osinttechnical) March 4, 2022

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Yep, nato would apparently destroy the paper tiger that is Russia.

It would definitely, imo, lead to the use of nuclear weapons as Russia wouldn't have a choice if they wanted to survive.

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How many NATO countries are prepared to fight?

The head of the German military said that German forces are not ready, they've been begging for additional funding since the Crimea invasion, but just now got the politicians to wake up.

I bet Poland is ready, they still have too many memories of life behind the Iron Curtain. Some of the other eastern European countries may be ready, but they'd be resource poor.

France? GB? I would guess that France is more ready than GB since they still do some fighting in Africa, but I doubt that they are trained and equipped to deal with the Russians.

Even the US would have to pivot rapidly and move much more equipment to Europe. We are just now starting to think about peer to peer engagements. Our focus for the past couple of decades has been the WOT. Our Air Force has too few squadrons that meet readiness standards. War in Eastern Europe isn't a great location for our Navy. The Army and Marines would have the best shot, but I'm not sure how ready the Army is currently.

It doesn't mean that we wouldn't win, but it would be much more painful that it should be.

ABATTBQ11 said:

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YouBet said:

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Captain Positivity said:

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One of the major lessons from this is that NATO forces could absolutely deal with any sort of Russian offensive into Europe. https://t.co/Jrm7V9qD5T

— OSINTtechnical (@Osinttechnical) March 4, 2022

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TexAgs identified this days ago, as usual.

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There's some conflation there. 18 million served, but the German army was never more than 10 million at any one time and many of those were drafted conscripts. Russia could easily draft conscripts and increase their military size the same way the Germans did.

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Judging from their performance in Ukraine I'm not too worried.

Probably not a smart move. He has the support of the west right now and they are giving him a crapload of weapons to fight Putin. He can't bully NATO into a no-fly agreement.

✍️The ninth day of Russian Invasion - summary of situation on all frontlines, including maps. Available on https://t.co/Br5W3aLzdU #Ukraine #UkraineInvasion #UkraineRussiaWar

— MilitaryLand.net (@Militarylandnet) March 4, 2022

MAP: https://militaryland.net/ukraine/deployment-map/

ABATTBQ11 said:

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YouBet said:

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Captain Positivity said:

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One of the major lessons from this is that NATO forces could absolutely deal with any sort of Russian offensive into Europe. https://t.co/Jrm7V9qD5T

— OSINTtechnical (@Osinttechnical) March 4, 2022

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TexAgs identified this days ago, as usual.

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There's some conflation there. 18 million served, but the German army was never more than 10 million at any one time and many of those were drafted conscripts. Russia could easily draft conscripts and increase their military size the same way the Germans did.

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Wasn't even looking at the headcount back then. Was commenting on the obvious ****ting the bed by Russia in Ukraine. They clearly can't take this to a NATO country. They are done.

Also, in 2022....the EU has 4x the population. Good luck to Russia.

Edit: to be clear, I'm no fan of the EU and their qualifications to have balls, but the minority that does who are trained smoke Russia all day long.

FriscoKid said:

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Probably not a smart move. He has the support of the west right now and they are giving him a crapload of weapons to fight Putin. He can't bully NATO into a no-fly agreement.

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If Ukraine falls then NATO is suddenly in a bind with the inevitability of Russian military installations being built all along its eastern border and nuclear threats from Russia if they don't withdraw their forces westward. A Ukrainian loss creates a potentially significant problem for NATO and Europe so it does cut both ways. And we've seen how we react to nuclear threats.