***Russian - Ukraine War Tactical and Strategic Updates*** [Warning on OP]

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RebelE Infantry
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In reply to GE • 3:12p, 3/4/22
AG
GE said:
RebelE Infantry said:
jabberwalkie09 said:
RebelE Infantry said:
bangobango said:
RebelE Infantry said:
rathAG05 said:
RebelE Infantry said:
LostInLA07 said:
That's already happening. O&G is their last source of outside cash but the impact to everyday Russians from the current sanctions will be substantial, particularly in the cities where many of their citizens are accustomed to daily interaction with western people, products and tech.

The iPhone they are currently holding is likely the last one they will ever have. Most of their apps don't work anymore. Eventually the russian stock market will have to reopen and anyone with capital in that market is going to take crushing losses that they will likely never recover from.

Frankly, the biggest risk here is that we inadvertently re-create a post WW1 Germany and end up with a population in Russia that hates us because of the sanctions imposed by the west. They'll kick out Putin but who knows what the sentiment will be when they are figuring out who the replacement will be. It could be another militaristic nationalist who rallies a desperate and humiliated population.


I'm afraid this is exactly what we're hurtling headlong towards and no one seems to be interested in talking about it. Private corporations are going far beyond the official sanctions and only making this even more likely.


Yeah, but what choice does the global community have? If Putin is unwilling to relent and pull out, and we are unwilling to directly engage, I don't see another option. We can't blame ourselves for the actions of an evil dictator. This totally sucks, but what he is doing is devastating.


You pressure Zelensky to come to the table for a negotiated peace to end a war he can't possibly win.
And how do you do that? How do you apply more pressure on him than what he is dealing with already? That man is ready to die to defend his country and its freedom.


First of all you stop giving him truckloads of weapons so that he can stop feeding his people into a meat grinder. Then you find a way to structure a peace where Russians strategic interests are addressed in exchange for easing of sanctions. Otherwise it's just the west using Ukraine as cannon fodder for a proxy war against Russia and that's the last thing we should want.

Strategic interests of Russia at this point include but are not limited to: new government in Ukraine, demilitarized Ukraine, effectively control of Donbas region, and Ukraine never joining NATO.

This is supposed to be an acceptable compromise to you?


Not my compromise to make, but if the alternative is utter destruction with the same end result, I'd probably think long and hard about taking it.
Are you if Russian lineage or did you live there or something? Just seems you are rooting for them to win.


Nope. I was (and am) against this war from the start. But I believe that a multipolar balance of power is best for the world, and sometimes the Great Powers will use force to advance or protect their strategic interests. Unfortunately for Ukraine they were caught between two of the Great Powers and in the eyes of one, got too cozy with the other. So when negotiations failed, war is the end result. Now it appears the most likely end result is either a swift Russian victory or a years long total war that winds up turning Ukraine into Mogadishu part 2: Eastern European Boogaloo. Both are very bad, but one is much worse.

I hope this sheds a little light on where I'm coming from in my thinking and analysis.
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P.U.T.U
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3:12p, 3/4/22
AG
Russians oil is dirty and takes more to refine. Plus they use old or Chinese equipment that break down. They can make money at $45ish but prefer $55+

You wonder why they are fighting the way they are, is it the typical Soviet tactic of quantity has its own quality? Send in the B team and equipment to get inside the city and then QCB with the A team?

I figured it was SOF units protecting the airports with how the Russians cannot seem to take them despite the numbers they were throwing at them. Also seems the spetsnaz used in airborne attacks is not working out too well. Wonder if their Alpha group is in the fight or if they are being used for other missions.
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jabberwalkie09
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In reply to GAC06 • 3:12p, 3/4/22
AG
GAC06 said:
MeKnowNot said:
Why are the Russian troops so active during the day?

I thought that modern military forces were well equipped with night vision. Is this not the case?


A modern military should also have reliable secure communications. The Russians apparently lack that as well.
Running around with unencrypted comms in the 21st century. SIGINT must be having the time of their lives.
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TRM
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In reply to Solo Tetherball Champ • 3:12p, 3/4/22
AG
I'll see if I can find out more. UKR General said they were planning counteroffensive a couple days ago.
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bangobango
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In reply to The Debt • 3:12p, 3/4/22
AG
The Debt said:
bangobango said:
CondensedFoggyAggie said:
There's an Instagram account of what seems to be commentary from various soldiers in the Ukraine, including western volunteers. Which is very raw


https://www.instagram.com/battles.and.beers/


Some entries

Quote:
"Day 3 of combat and still alive, man. This is intense stuff. An ambush earlier destroyed several vehicles, tanks, and other materials they have been using.

Progress is being made, as well as losses. To any volunteers coming, probably a one way ticket, dude. This isn't Iraq or Afghanistan. The next 5 minutes isn't even guaranteed. Don't come here thinking you'll stack bodies because you won't. These aren't dirt farmers with 50 year old AK's.

You'll get humbled to real, REAL combat and violence real quick. This isn't a game. I fired more rounds here in 2 days than 4 deployments to Iraq and Afghanistan. This is not a game, and this is not fun. Choose carefully before you decide to be a hero."

- Western Volunteer. Invasion of Ukraine. February 26th, 2022.
damn

So an operator volunteers and he says he isnt stacking bodies.

Yet people on here think the Ukrainian army is competently defending against russians who cant tie their own boots.

Someone here is lying. And it probably isnt the veteran.
There is a lot of propaganda from both sides. I take everything not verified by a credible source with a grain of salt, including these stories. That being said, I've seen enough from credible sources to know the Ukraine's, at least initially, fared very well. I don't think that is really in dispute. How they are doing now or the last few days or so, who knows?
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Kenneth_2003
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In reply to 74OA • 3:14p, 3/4/22
AG
74OA said:
hbtheduce said:
aggiehawg said:
BusterAg said:
Irish 2.0 said:


Russia having to sell their oil at massive discount to get it out
The American people need to boycott Shell gasoline stations.
Actually, this is a good thing. Forcing them to sell at steep discounts (losing the large profit they were expecting) leads to less production from Russia if the profit margin isn't there. Costs more to extract that they can get on the market.

When we were energy independent the prices went way down but ours was by oversupply. Their discounts are necessary to move any product at all. Big difference.

A $23 deduct at $110 does not dent their profits at all. Russia's break evens are probably well below $30/bbl, They are just fine at $80.

Now it is less money than would be expected for the possible war machine. But compared prices pre-conflict, the deduct isn't even that heavy.
It's not just a matter of being profitable, it's how much profit is needed to balance a producer's national budget. Russia is so dependent on energy revenues it currently needs a minimum of ~$70bl and high export volume to avoid drastic cuts to national spending and hurting people's standard of living. I imagine recouping the billions lost on this war and the sanctions hit to volume will drive its break even point much closer to $100bl in coming years.
https://www.spglobal.com/commodity-insights/en/market-insights/latest-news/oil/120221-russia-opec-seen-moving-closer-on-fiscal-breakeven-oil-prices


Russia losing billions in oil revenue is a tactical decision not unlike their decision to crash the global oil markets in Q2 2020.
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BurnetAggie99
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In reply to TRM • 3:15p, 3/4/22
TRM said:
Nothing a little bit of Water Boarding can't fix to get him to come clean.
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LMCane
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In reply to MeKnowNot • 3:17p, 3/4/22
MeKnowNot said:
Why are the Russian troops so active during the day?

I thought that modern military forces were well equipped with night vision. Is this not the case?

The USA and most Western modern militaries (UK, Israel, France)

not so much the Russkies
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TRM
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3:17p, 3/4/22
AG

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aggiehawg
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In reply to Kenneth_2003 • 3:18p, 3/4/22
AG
Kenneth_2003 said:
74OA said:
hbtheduce said:
aggiehawg said:
BusterAg said:
Irish 2.0 said:


Russia having to sell their oil at massive discount to get it out
The American people need to boycott Shell gasoline stations.
Actually, this is a good thing. Forcing them to sell at steep discounts (losing the large profit they were expecting) leads to less production from Russia if the profit margin isn't there. Costs more to extract that they can get on the market.

When we were energy independent the prices went way down but ours was by oversupply. Their discounts are necessary to move any product at all. Big difference.

A $23 deduct at $110 does not dent their profits at all. Russia's break evens are probably well below $30/bbl, They are just fine at $80.

Now it is less money than would be expected for the possible war machine. But compared prices pre-conflict, the deduct isn't even that heavy.
It's not just a matter of being profitable, it's how much profit is needed to balance a producer's national budget. Russia is so dependent on energy revenues it currently needs a minimum of ~$70bl and high export volume to avoid drastic cuts to national spending and hurting people's standard of living. I imagine recouping the billions lost on this war and the sanctions hit to volume will drive its break even point much closer to $100bl in coming years.
https://www.spglobal.com/commodity-insights/en/market-insights/latest-news/oil/120221-russia-opec-seen-moving-closer-on-fiscal-breakeven-oil-prices


Russia losing billions in oil revenue is a tactical decision not unlike their decision to crash the global oil markets in Q2 2020.
Exactly.
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RebelE Infantry
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In reply to BurnetAggie99 • 3:18p, 3/4/22
AG
BurnetAggie99 said:
TRM said:
Nothing a little bit of Water Boarding can't fix to get him to come clean.


In all likelihood they won't waste the water and just shoot him. Eastern Europeans don't play around with that kinda thing.
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TRM
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3:20p, 3/4/22
AG
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aggiehawg
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In reply to TRM • 3:22p, 3/4/22
AG
TRM said:

That's where the difficulty of an occupation really come into play, with an open insurgency. They were relying on their spy network to be able to identify and out insurgents.

Have to think there is at least a little rope a dope going on there.
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PJYoung
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3:22p, 3/4/22
AG
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BurnetAggie99
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In reply to RebelE Infantry • 3:22p, 3/4/22
RebelE Infantry said:
BurnetAggie99 said:
TRM said:
Nothing a little bit of Water Boarding can't fix to get him to come clean.


In all likelihood they won't waste the water and just shoot him. Eastern Europeans don't play around with that kinda thing.
There's always that option to but as former Marine I'd rather say the bullet first but can see that option would be on the table.
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PJYoung
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3:23p, 3/4/22
AG


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TRM
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3:25p, 3/4/22
AG
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TRM
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3:26p, 3/4/22
AG
F China. ETA: meant to put in the other thread.
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deddog
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In reply to TRM • 3:28p, 3/4/22
AG
TRM said:
F China
They've backed Pakistan, NKorea, Burma junta, Pol Pot and the Khmer Rouge. Russia is probably the least rogue nation they've supported
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The Debt
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In reply to bangobango • 3:31p, 3/4/22
bangobango said:
The Debt said:
bangobango said:
CondensedFoggyAggie said:
There's an Instagram account of what seems to be commentary from various soldiers in the Ukraine, including western volunteers. Which is very raw


https://www.instagram.com/battles.and.beers/


Some entries

Quote:
"Day 3 of combat and still alive, man. This is intense stuff. An ambush earlier destroyed several vehicles, tanks, and other materials they have been using.

Progress is being made, as well as losses. To any volunteers coming, probably a one way ticket, dude. This isn't Iraq or Afghanistan. The next 5 minutes isn't even guaranteed. Don't come here thinking you'll stack bodies because you won't. These aren't dirt farmers with 50 year old AK's.

You'll get humbled to real, REAL combat and violence real quick. This isn't a game. I fired more rounds here in 2 days than 4 deployments to Iraq and Afghanistan. This is not a game, and this is not fun. Choose carefully before you decide to be a hero."

- Western Volunteer. Invasion of Ukraine. February 26th, 2022.
damn

So an operator volunteers and he says he isnt stacking bodies.

Yet people on here think the Ukrainian army is competently defending against russians who cant tie their own boots.

Someone here is lying. And it probably isnt the veteran.
There is a lot of propaganda from both sides. I take everything not verified by a credible source with a grain of salt, including these stories. That being said, I've seen enough from credible sources to know the Ukraine's, at least initially, fared very well. I don't think that is really in dispute. How they are doing now or the last few days or so, who knows?
"fared very well" if you read that insta, I think the 28th, there is a story of captured russian troops that are teenagers who thought they were on a training exercise. They got fired upon, then they defended themselves. They didnt even know they were outside Russia.

This comports with the theory of the D-Team, the pawns. Ukraine APPEARED to be doing well bc they were fighting a glorified JROTC contingent.

I tell ya, there is a tried and true tradition of unloading your prisons on your enemies. It bogs them down with logistic issues (POWs) and there is a chance they kill some of the enemy.
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JoeAggie1010
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In reply to The Debt • 3:32p, 3/4/22
The Debt said:
Quote:
Is this just throwing stuff on the wall time? You are seeing a war in real time, where Russia is unprepared. Please tell me an instance where human nature you throw in the "B" team.

As for DOD logistics, the Russian's couldn't hold our jock.

I guess it's not common knowledge, so let me explain it to you. During the cold war the west had intel on the quality of equipment in case things got hot. All the satellite states had 3rd and 4rh rate equipment, and tons of it. They saved their best equipment (tanks/jets) for Russia proper.

The idea behind this is that when nato invades, nato will send their best, just like you suggest. The best will grind through substandard equipment. They will put thousands of miles and hours on the shiny new equipment, causing erosion and maintenance, and by the time the allies get to Russia, the Soviets unleash fresh equipment that was tactically comparable, but with less wear.

I was not surprised when we saw 30year old tanks and trucks with half a tank of gas being thrown at Ukraine. Its consistent with their m.o.

Plus you have to remember Russians play chess from age 5. Do you lead with a rook, or with a pawn? Pawns, in this war, probe enemy positions, flush them out, Ukrainians throw the kitchen sink at the pawns, then a queen shows up and they are all fked.

You don't have to explain, though I appreciate the gesture. The Russian's appear to have subpar equipment overall. Their doctrine appears to be antiquated. It's hard to play chess when you don't have a queen.
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TheEternalPessimist
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In reply to RebelE Infantry • 3:35p, 3/4/22
RebelE Infantry said:
BurnetAggie99 said:
TRM said:
Nothing a little bit of Water Boarding can't fix to get him to come clean.


In all likelihood they won't waste the water and just shoot him. Eastern Europeans don't play around with that kinda thing.
...and shooting him without a trial when he is captive violates Ukrainian law and principles civilized nations agree on in regards to human rights.

But..... I agree. This guy is probably going to be executed soon.
--

"The Kingdom is for HE that can TAKE IT!" - Alexander
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YouBet
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In reply to TRM • 3:35p, 3/4/22
AG
TRM said:
F China. ETA: meant to put in the other thread.
The same country who just said two days ago that Ukraine's sovereignty should be respected?

Lol. China. Such an asshoe.
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Rapier108
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In reply to TRM • 3:35p, 3/4/22
TRM said:
China will back whoever they think it is in their best interest to back.

If tomorrow they see it is better to tell Russia to **** off, they will.
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Decay
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In reply to TRM • 3:36p, 3/4/22
AG
TRM said:
Note: Bellingcat is basically a CIA operation. So you have to take their investigations with a grain of salt.

However, regarding Russia's invasion, I trust their reporting. Mostly because the progressives are all 100% supportive of Ukraine so the spooks are too. This isn't a great thread to debate it but regardless they usually have a solid case when they make a claim.
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Demosthenes81
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In reply to TheEternalPessimist • 3:37p, 3/4/22
AG
TheEternalPessimist said:
RebelE Infantry said:
BurnetAggie99 said:
TRM said:
Nothing a little bit of Water Boarding can't fix to get him to come clean.




In all likelihood they won't waste the water and just shoot him. Eastern Europeans don't play around with that kinda thing.
...and shooting him without a trial when he is captive violates Ukrainian law and principles civilized nations agree on in regards to human rights.

But..... I agree. This guy is probably going to be executed soon.


Martial law, military tribunal, guilty, shot.
Seven and three are ten, not only now, but forever. There has never been a time when seven and three were not ten, nor will there ever be a time when they are not ten. Therefore, I have said that the truth of number is incorruptible and common to all who think. — St. Augustine
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Ag_07
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3:38p, 3/4/22
AG
Not to detail too much but I'm kinda surprised we haven't seen any US equipment being used by the Russians by way of Afghanistan.

I figured the Russians would be all over finding a way to procure some that stuff we left behind.
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74OA
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In reply to hbtheduce • 3:38p, 3/4/22
AG
hbtheduce said:
74OA said:
hbtheduce said:
aggiehawg said:
BusterAg said:
Irish 2.0 said:


Russia having to sell their oil at massive discount to get it out
The American people need to boycott Shell gasoline stations.
Actually, this is a good thing. Forcing them to sell at steep discounts (losing the large profit they were expecting) leads to less production from Russia if the profit margin isn't there. Costs more to extract that they can get on the market.

When we were energy independent the prices went way down but ours was by oversupply. Their discounts are necessary to move any product at all. Big difference.

A $23 deduct at $110 does not dent their profits at all. Russia's break evens are probably well below $30/bbl, They are just fine at $80.

Now it is less money than would be expected for the possible war machine. But compared prices pre-conflict, the deduct isn't even that heavy.
It's not just a matter of being profitable, it's how much profit is needed to balance a producer's national budget. Russia is so dependent on energy revenues it currently needs a minimum of ~$70bl and high export volume to avoid drastic cuts to national spending and hurting people's standard of living. I imagine recouping the billions lost on this war and the sanctions hit to volume will drive its break even point much closer to $100bl in coming years.
https://www.spglobal.com/commodity-insights/en/market-insights/latest-news/oil/120221-russia-opec-seen-moving-closer-on-fiscal-breakeven-oil-prices

Russia isn't Saudi. It hasn't hooked their citizens on government handouts nearly to the degree. Their populace aren't a bunch of spoiled oil princes. They will beat their populace into submission and be just fine with cuts.
Russia has a national budget. If it wants to avoid cuts to that budget it needed to sell oil at ~$70 a barrel before the cost of this war and the economic impact of sanctions. As you say, Russian "people programs" are already austere, so any loss of oil revenue will cut those to the bone and also cut into Moscow's military spending, too. My point is saying Russia is okay because it is selling oil at more than it costs to produce it doesn't address how much additional profit is needed to balance its national budget without drastic cuts.
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aezmvp
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In reply to TRM • 3:41p, 3/4/22
TRM said:
If true they're going to start getting rolled back locally. Then if they can't feed those troops it's going to fall completely apart. I'm also expecting that if this is accurate you'll see the Russian exchange not open all next week. At that point you're going to start seeing companies in Russia just laying off staff left, right and center. Once that starts and you see unemployment spike heavily Putin is going to have a really, really tight spot.
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deddog
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In reply to aezmvp • 3:42p, 3/4/22
AG
aezmvp said:
TRM said:
If true they're going to start getting rolled back locally. Then if they can't feed those troops it's going to fall completely apart. I'm also expecting that if this is accurate you'll see the Russian exchange not open all next week. At that point you're going to start seeing companies in Russia just laying off staff left, right and center. Once that starts and you see unemployment spike heavily Putin is going to have a really, really tight spot.
How are Ukranians getting food? Think it would be harder for them than for the Ruskies
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wangus12
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In reply to TRM • 3:43p, 3/4/22
AG
TRM said:


I'll believe it when I see it. I just don't believe they're out of resources
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CondensedFogAggie
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3:43p, 3/4/22
Young British ex service member trained in air defense going into Ukraine. Apparently he only had to sign a 1 month contract because his specialty was in need.

https://instagr.am/p/CakmZB5vAbw



Another British ex military sniper/reconnaissance served in afghanistan, cypress + private military contractor in Iraq going. This guy sounds like he's seen stuff.


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Faustus
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In reply to RebelE Infantry • 3:45p, 3/4/22
RebelE Infantry said:
PJYoung said:


>18 year olds with 3 days training, haphazard gear, and no uniform

>Ukraine is winning, or even doing all that well.

Pick one
3rd choice

> photo op as part of the information war
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TRM
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In reply to Decay • 3:48p, 3/4/22
AG
Decay said:
TRM said:
Note: Bellingcat is basically a CIA operation. So you have to take their investigations with a grain of salt.

However, regarding Russia's invasion, I trust their reporting. Mostly because the progressives are all 100% supportive of Ukraine so the spooks are too. This isn't a great thread to debate it but regardless they usually have a solid case when they make a claim.
I think it tracks with Rubio's tweet last night about reaching the limit of missiles they allocated for this invasion.
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aezmvp
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In reply to deddog • 3:48p, 3/4/22
deddog said:
aezmvp said:
TRM said:
If true they're going to start getting rolled back locally. Then if they can't feed those troops it's going to fall completely apart. I'm also expecting that if this is accurate you'll see the Russian exchange not open all next week. At that point you're going to start seeing companies in Russia just laying off staff left, right and center. Once that starts and you see unemployment spike heavily Putin is going to have a really, really tight spot.
How are Ukranians getting food? Think it would be harder for them than for the Ruskies
Train network is still running.

Should elaborate. The problems with issues like IFF or lots of MANPADS and inaccurate long range missiles is that the Russians have largely failed to degrade the Uke's transportation infrastructure. When it became obvious that this was going to be a long war, this should have been priority number one along with communication, internet, etc. Very strange.
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