***Russian - Ukraine War Tactical and Strategic Updates*** [Warning on OP]
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Last: 8 hrs ago by EastSideAg2002
jabberwalkie09 said:Rossticus said:
Russia can do whatever they want.The Russian navy is hijacking civilian ships to use as civilian shields and mask some of their potential landing operations.
— Molly McKew (@MollyMcKew) March 3, 2022
Here, a hijacked Estonian ship has run into a mine and sunk. 4 crew are missing. https://t.co/MWLUzHDCfF
The Helt has been discussed a couple of times today I believe, but interrupting commercial shipping is a pretty big taboo iirc. While I don't see anything happening because of this particular incident, this is like the third or fourth issue involving a commercial vessel near the Ukrainian coast during this incident. If it comes to light that the Russians are actually commandeering or attacking ships intentionally, that's going to draw some attention.
Attention and rhetoric, maybe, but based on what continues to be tolerated, I doubt action. Personally I think that NATO would do its best to keep it quiet. Stoltenberg is not the sort of guy who takes initiative and if you draw a line then you have to enforce it. And that constitutes escalation, which will be avoided at virtually any cost.
Yes, and it's very hard to say where (or if) Russia has a tipping point. Their pain threshold is much higher than most NATO countries - so, when do their losses of men/equip flip from "tolerable" to "unacceptable?"Rossticus said:
They're forcing Kazakhstan and Belarus to commit theirs and they still have a ton in storage. Even if only 1/4 to 1/3 is deployable that's still a ton for Ukrainians to neutralize, IMO. But, yeah, they'll still burn through a ton of it regardless.
Or maybe they're so invested they literally don't have a pain threshold ... they're totally committed regardless of the cost.
Very informative.
Gig'em, Ole Army Class of '70
[When you are able to post again maybe you will have learned your lesson about cluttering this thread with gifs or memes. -Staff]
Do you know that for sure? I'd like to see statistics to back up that claim. Historic losses?
that's a great video.
the heavy Russian artillery and its range is very scary
the heavy Russian artillery and its range is very scary
Yukon Cornelius said:
Do you know that for sure? I'd like to see statistics to back up that claim. Historic losses?
Not total number but rate of loss based on scale.
He's lost more troops already in a week than we did in both Iraqs and Afghanistan total.
5%-6% of total invasionary force in a week is huge.
it's the latter, because Putin's future (alive or dead) now depends on it.benchmark said:Yes, and it's very hard to say where (or if) Russia has a tipping point. Their pain threshold is much higher than most NATO countries - so, when do their losses of men/equip flip from "tolerable" to "unacceptable?"Rossticus said:
They're forcing Kazakhstan and Belarus to commit theirs and they still have a ton in storage. Even if only 1/4 to 1/3 is deployable that's still a ton for Ukrainians to neutralize, IMO. But, yeah, they'll still burn through a ton of it regardless.
Or maybe they're so invested they literally don't have a pain threshold ... they're totally committed regardless of the cost.
And Ukraine is not going to win this without foreign air support.
The Russians will "win" with a loss of men that would be unacceptably high by Western standards, but is not unusual for Russia. They have a huge army, and a lot of armor. Also, there's also no telling what happens when Zelensky is killed. Who else is killed with him? Does the resistance slow down?
1. According to Ukraine.
2. That's compared to US standards. Russia has a completely different threshold.
So to claim that it needs to be compared to Russia history.
And Iraq wasn't being supplied weapons by NATO either.
Just another thought. Historic would include all of history. How does it rate to a week into our invasion of Europe Ww2?
2. That's compared to US standards. Russia has a completely different threshold.
So to claim that it needs to be compared to Russia history.
And Iraq wasn't being supplied weapons by NATO either.
Just another thought. Historic would include all of history. How does it rate to a week into our invasion of Europe Ww2?
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#Russia is obviously a major military power, but they don’t have an unlimited supply of guided rockets & missiles
— Marco Rubio (@marcorubio) March 3, 2022
For the first time there are indications they are reaching the number set aside for this invasion
They've already started conscription of all males under 50 in Russia. They're prepared to feed the entire adult male population of Russia to this if that's what it takes.
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Less than a week in? I don't believe that. Propaganda.TRM said:#Russia is obviously a major military power, but they don’t have an unlimited supply of guided rockets & missiles
— Marco Rubio (@marcorubio) March 3, 2022
For the first time there are indications they are reaching the number set aside for this invasion
They might not have set aside a lot, given they expected it to be a cakewalkRingOfive said:Less than a week in? I don't believe that. Propaganda.TRM said:#Russia is obviously a major military power, but they don’t have an unlimited supply of guided rockets & missiles
— Marco Rubio (@marcorubio) March 3, 2022
For the first time there are indications they are reaching the number set aside for this invasion
Also, no big deal.
they'll just go back to doing what they've always done.
"Win" by destroying cities with artillery and rockets.
Yukon Cornelius said:
1. According to Ukraine.
2. That's compared to US standards. Russia has a completely different threshold.
So to claim that it needs to be compared to Russia history.
And Iraq wasn't being supplied weapons by NATO either.
I'm not arguing that they'll stop because of the rate of loss. I'm saying that their continued commitment despite a high rate of loss should be taken as an indication of Putin's intent.
RingOfive said:Less than a week in? I don't believe that. Propaganda.TRM said:#Russia is obviously a major military power, but they don’t have an unlimited supply of guided rockets & missiles
— Marco Rubio (@marcorubio) March 3, 2022
For the first time there are indications they are reaching the number set aside for this invasion
maybe, but maybe not
Guided missiles are very expensive, we tend to take it for granted that theres a limitless supply of them but they are a very valuable commodity. I think that explains why, after the initial knockout attempt failed, the Russians have switched to relying more heavily on artillery/MRLS and general purpose munitions .
If I recall correctly, during the (idiotic) campaign in Libya in 2011, the RAF and French air forces effectively ran out of guided munitions in just a couple days of flying and had to use US JDAMs.
If I recall correctly, during the (idiotic) campaign in Libya in 2011, the RAF and French air forces effectively ran out of guided munitions in just a couple days of flying and had to use US JDAMs.
Seems like there are Russian fighters being shot down now than before.
The possible wreckage of a Russian Su-34 bomber in Irpin. https://t.co/wdq9UPi9L5 pic.twitter.com/5E2bJqeu2B
— Rob Lee (@RALee85) March 3, 2022
Who expected that? Did Putin? Maybe he knew it wouldn't be a cakewalk.deddog said:They might not have set aside a lot, given they expected it to be a cakewalkRingOfive said:Less than a week in? I don't believe that. Propaganda.TRM said:#Russia is obviously a major military power, but they don’t have an unlimited supply of guided rockets & missiles
— Marco Rubio (@marcorubio) March 3, 2022
For the first time there are indications they are reaching the number set aside for this invasion
Also, no big deal.
they'll just go back to doing what they've always done.
"Win" by destroying cities with artillery and rockets.
And I'm saying compared to Russia historically it has not been a high rate of loss.
People are making rash judgements of the mindset of Putin and Russia based off western thinking.
The biggest indicator is Putin has been saying for years he views NATO encouragement (has has been happening) as an existential threat to Russia. So what does Russia do when they perceive that level of threat? We are beginning to see it sadly.
People are making rash judgements of the mindset of Putin and Russia based off western thinking.
The biggest indicator is Putin has been saying for years he views NATO encouragement (has has been happening) as an existential threat to Russia. So what does Russia do when they perceive that level of threat? We are beginning to see it sadly.
Propaganda-inflated numbers or not, it's impossible for anyone to argue that this has gone the way the Russians had expected, at this point…
I think I read somewhere that each of those Javelins is as expensive as the tanks they are destroying.....which sounds crazy to me.End Of Message said:
I am by no means an expert, but watching this conflict, I completely agree.
Highly mobile/precision lethality weapons in urban areas is likely the future. That's probably obvious to many, but to guys like me that played RISK growing up, it's pretty eye opening.
Thank you to all those that keep our country safe; I can't imagine what it feels like to be this vulnerable as a country.
(Reuters) - The Czech Republic will send an additional military aid package worth 17 million crowns ($730,900) to Ukraine, including hundreds of machine guns, assault rifles and more than 100,0000 ammunition rounds, the defense ministry said
— Phil Stewart (@phildstewart) March 3, 2022
I don't think Russia is losing. I think Ukraine, with the help of the west, is putting up way more of a fight than anyone outside of Ukraine thought possible.Yukon Cornelius said:
Crazy how so many westerners think Russia is losing after tweets show casing Russian losses.
Russia is now going to shell Ukraine to a pile of rubble and then starve them of food next year if they complete their objectives. The world is reverting back to its cold war forms.
The only thing saving Russia is their nukes. Its looking very much like a modern military could absolutely destroy all of Russia's war fighting capability swiftly. But those pesky nukes counter all of the corruption, rot, incompetence, and lack of will to fight.
Destroyed Russian military vehicles are seen on a street in the settlement of Borodyanka, as Russia's invasion of Ukraine continues, in the Kyiv region, Ukraine March 3, 2022. pic.twitter.com/DYSykZt9IA
— Phil Stewart (@phildstewart) March 3, 2022
nah I think they're only like $200,000f burg ag said:I think I read somewhere that each of those Javelins is as expensive as the tanks they are destroying.....which sounds crazy to me.End Of Message said:
I am by no means an expert, but watching this conflict, I completely agree.
Highly mobile/precision lethality weapons in urban areas is likely the future. That's probably obvious to many, but to guys like me that played RISK growing up, it's pretty eye opening.
Thank you to all those that keep our country safe; I can't imagine what it feels like to be this vulnerable as a country.
https://www.cnbc.com/2022/03/03/russia-ukraine-live-updates.html
JP Morgan says the Russian Economy will shrink 35% due to the invasion and sanctions
JP Morgan says the Russian Economy will shrink 35% due to the invasion and sanctions
Yukon Cornelius said:
And I'm saying compared to Russia historically it has not been a high rate of loss.
People are making rash judgements of the mindset of Putin and Russia based off western thinking.
The biggest indicator is Putin has been saying for years he views NATO encouragement (has has been happening) as an existential threat to Russia. So what does Russia do when they perceive that level of threat? We are beginning to see it sadly.
While all of that might very well be true, what is also true is that the Russian economy is collapsing, there is growing unrest amongst the Russian population, and Putin is now forced to circle wagons at home while struggling to make military advances in an unprovoked attack on a sovereign nation…
Putin really ****ed up…
I believe that is in the ballpark of the great depression.Ferg said:
https://www.cnbc.com/2022/03/03/russia-ukraine-live-updates.html
JP Morgan says the Russian Economy will shrink 35% due to the invasion and sanctions
Once again, Tom Clancy was there 35 years ago in Red Storm Rising with an accurate prediction for this:End Of Message said:
I am by no means an expert, but watching this conflict, I completely agree.
Highly mobile/precision lethality weapons in urban areas is likely the future. That's probably obvious to many, but to guys like me that played RISK growing up, it's pretty eye opening.
Thank you to all those that keep our country safe; I can't imagine what it feels like to be this vulnerable as a country.
"Every time we break through," Major Sergetov observed quietly, "they slow us down and counterattack. This was not supposed to happen." "A splendid observation!" Alekseyev snarled, then regained his temper. "We expected that a breakthrough would have the same effect as in the last war against the Germans. The problem is these new light antitank missiles. Three men and a jeep"he even used the American title for it"can race along the road, set up, fire one or two missiles, be gone before we can react, then repeat the process a few hundred meters away. Defensive firepower was never so strong before, and we failed to appreciate how effectively a handful of rearguard troops can slow down an advancing column. Our security is based on movement"--Alekseyev explained the basic lesson from tank school"a mobile force under these conditions cannot afford to be slowed down. A simple breakthrough is not enough! We must blast a massive hole in their front and race at least twenty kilometers to be free of these roving missile-crews. Only then can we switch over to true mobile doctrine." "You say we cannot win?" Sergetov had begun to have his own doubts, but did not expect to hear them from his commander. "I say what I did four months ago, and I was correct: this campaign of ours has become a war of attrition. For the moment, technology has defeated the military art, ours and theirs. What we're doing now is seeing who runs out of men and arms first."
Is it really collapsing?FireAg said:Yukon Cornelius said:
And I'm saying compared to Russia historically it has not been a high rate of loss.
People are making rash judgements of the mindset of Putin and Russia based off western thinking.
The biggest indicator is Putin has been saying for years he views NATO encouragement (has has been happening) as an existential threat to Russia. So what does Russia do when they perceive that level of threat? We are beginning to see it sadly.
While all of that might very well be true, what is also true is that the Russian economy is collapsing, there is growing unrest amongst the Russian population, and Putin is now forced to circle wagons at home while struggling to make military advances in an unprovoked attack on a sovereign nation…
Putin really ****ed up…
We'll see.
I would take some of these rosy estimates of Russian economic destruction with a grain of salt. They are being provided by entities who want to show that sanctions are making a difference. It probably makes them feel less guilty about watching Russia exterminate Ukraine.
Russia has oil. A lot of it. And politicians every where need oil. Last time i checked, we were still buying it.
BusterAg said:Pretty sure we already have a bunch of those. Boston Dynamics is flush with cash for some strange reason.one MEEN Ag said:
This war is definitely raising questions about what the future of war looks like.
Broad air superiority through airplanes still wins, but now close air superiority and defense through drones looks like its a big gamer changer. And I think tanks will give way to way more nimble cannons mounted on four legged chassis like boston dynamics has. Something that can move, strike, and move on the ground before you can get a javelin on it.
Don't tell the III Corps CG this!
I think if they could use other means of travel outside of hard ball roads you may see a different outcome. Roads are easy and predictable choke points.
RingOfive said:Less than a week in? I don't believe that. Propaganda.TRM said:#Russia is obviously a major military power, but they don’t have an unlimited supply of guided rockets & missiles
— Marco Rubio (@marcorubio) March 3, 2022
For the first time there are indications they are reaching the number set aside for this invasion
Again, Rubio is on Senate Intel. If he's saying this, it's because the US has very good reason to believe it's true.
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