Ukrainian forces are taking some heavy losses in the Donbas. https://t.co/h3aAeXnvDM

— OSINTtechnical (@Osinttechnical) March 2, 2022

Sully Dog said:

---

Agthatbuilds said:

---

RebelE Infantry said:

---

Here is a good quick write up on the overall strategic military situation. Yes it runs counter to the broad narrative, no it is not Russian propaganda.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10569141/Putin-NOT-crazy-Russian-invasion-NOT-failing-writes-military-analyst-BILL-ROGGIO.html?ns_mchannel=rss&ns_campaign=1490&ito=1490

---

Read the article. Bunch of opinions giving too much credit to putin and Russia. Truth is in the middle somewhere.


The key to the decision of this invasion, which the article hinted at, was putin correctly calculated that the west would not go to war with Russia. He planned for everything else, except maybe the strength of resistance being put up by the ukes.

---

I think it's pretty spot on. Ukraine has a serious interest is shaping the narrative against Russia to garner Western support. Russia has no interest in shaping narratives. Thus, you see a lot of videos of Ukrainian heroism and Russian failures, but little to the contrary

---

Agree. If you take away all of the noise and hysteria from social media, take a step back, and look at how the invasion is playing out at a macro-level I think Russia is fine with how it's going.

They continue to take objectives and are either very close or continue to make progress with linking up and cutting off Ukrainian forces. There's been no sign that Ukraine forces will be able to stop them from achieving control of their objectives.

Would they've liked their first pushes to have gone off without a hitch and for the Ukraine government to fall immediately, yea of course. But if you look at successful military campaigns throughout history all of them overcame some serious blunders.

jabberwalkie09 said:

---

RebelE Infantry said:

---

jabberwalkie09 said:

---

RebelE Infantry said:

---

Here is a good quick write up on the overall strategic military situation. Yes it runs counter to the broad narrative, no it is not Russian propaganda.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10569141/Putin-NOT-crazy-Russian-invasion-NOT-failing-writes-military-analyst-BILL-ROGGIO.html?ns_mchannel=rss&ns_campaign=1490&ito=1490

---

Im not so sure that is really a fair analysis. Even if we discount the most of desertion and surrendering of Russians to the Ukrainians that have been claimed by the Ukrainian government, there's enough to suggest that the Russian offensive isn't going as well as this guy asserts. It took several days for RU forces to secure Kherson if we assume that they have at this point.

There's also plenty evidence out there of abandoned/disabled/out of fuel equipment to imply there are significant logistical problems that the Russians cannot support offensive operations of this size and are bogged down by operations from Kharkiv, Kherson, Mariupol, and to some extent Sumy. I took away that the author largely ignores this in his analysis when he says that western intelligence, specifically the DoD, should not be so optimistic and that this isn't as disorganized as it appears.

Just my 2 cents on the article. YMMV.

---

I think that's a very fair assessment. I just found it interesting because it gives a nice broad picture overview of the Russian attack.

I don't think we really know to what extent the logistics issues are slowing down the advances. A large part of that is because we obviously don't know the Russian war plan, outside of a purportedly captured map and US intel assessment. It's probably not going as well as they had planned for, but also probably not as bad as western media seems to be portraying.

---

I got ya. I agree with his tactical analysis, but I don't think anyone would really disagree with that. The troop positioning prior to the invasion gave that impression. The RU drops in the western half of the country literally make no sense though. I don't think I've seen anyone really come up with an explanation for those.

We can really only see the logistical problems in Ukraine since there are more camera phones making these observations. However, I'd contend that this massive convoy coming down from Belarus and rate of progress is also indicative of issues, but the extent we don't know yet.

---

The best explanation of this I've seen is that Russian doctrine includes dropping them roughly 80km ahead of the forward advance. The idea is to tie up the defender from the rear while the mechanized attack tries to achieve a breakthrough. The airfield at Hostomel (spelling?) was about 75km from the Russian front. A secondary objective may have been to hold the airfield long enough to land reinforcements. Perhaps the air got too hot too quickly to achieve this?

Again that's just the explanation I've seen that makes the most sense. Whether or not that maps onto the actual battle plan we'll probably never know.

Yeah, I think it is imperative that the ukes, if able, mount an offensive aimed at disrupting the supply convoys

ATX_AG_08 said:

---

Russian Airborne Forces that landed in the city of Mykolaiv this morning using 4 Helicopters were neutralized quickly either all being killed or taken Prisoner, pictured here are 3 Russian POWs that were captured at a Square near the Center of the City. https://t.co/YzqXbQBEKe

— OSINTdefender (@sentdefender) March 2, 2022

---

To me, that sounds like the stories of the Russian comms being open enough for Ukrainian forces know in advance where an attack will come and set up an ambush.

Senior US Defense official on the Russian convoy northwest of Kyiv- "They are not moving at any rate that would lead one to believe they’ve solved their problems. So we would characterize it as stalled."

— OSINTtechnical (@Osinttechnical) March 2, 2022

Agthatbuilds said:

---

According to U.S. officials speaking today, ~100,000 #Russia troops inside #Ukraine (~70% of its entire deployed force) is running out, or has already run out of fuel & food.

— Charles Lister (@Charles_Lister) March 2, 2022

---

How can they continue the fight then? That sounds like a disaster and maybe why all of those vehicles are just being abandoned.

FriscoKid said:

---

Agthatbuilds said:

---

According to U.S. officials speaking today, ~100,000 #Russia troops inside #Ukraine (~70% of its entire deployed force) is running out, or has already run out of fuel & food.

— Charles Lister (@Charles_Lister) March 2, 2022

---

How can they continue the fight then? That sounds like a disaster and maybe why all of those vehicles are just being abandoned.

---

Hope it's true. Perhaps the truth lies in somewhere in the middle.

Another unconfirmed report of light/gas outages and Russian forces killing civilians in Novyi Bykiv (Новий Биків). Previous reports from the village mentioned Russians seizing residents' cell phones. https://t.co/qRqeIcZmi9 pic.twitter.com/09MBsAEYJn

— Henry Schlottman (@HN_Schlottman) March 2, 2022

Quote:

---

To me, that sounds like the stories of the Russian comms being open enough for Ukrainian forces know in advance where an attack will come and set up an ambush.

---

Our sigint guys must be having a field day. I have to assume we're passing useful operational intel back to the defenders.

Putin's paper tiger army is an embarrassment. He should shoot some generals in the head for morale boost.

Agthatbuilds said:

---

According to U.S. officials speaking today, ~100,000 #Russia troops inside #Ukraine (~70% of its entire deployed force) is running out, or has already run out of fuel & food.

— Charles Lister (@Charles_Lister) March 2, 2022

---

A hit to their western flank encircling Kiev would be a disaster for them - especially if they can relink up with the west. The forces left on the south can be dealt with. Would they refocus the artillery off of the city to a counterattack or continue to pound and bring in reinforcements or more air power?

https://t.co/3FuqNaf6RQ

— Floris (@r_evolutie) March 2, 2022

Dude on the far left is in some pain... wonder if he broke his leg on the jump and that's how they captured those three?

Ok... how do I post a tweet?

If their communications are open, it may be more likely true than not.
What i don't believe is a Russian inability to resupply over the Black Sea. If they can't get food and fuel to those troops, man that is a new level of suck. If they didn't have nukes.....

Quote:

---

Airborne Silks are the better soldiers too. Dang, Russia hates their Airborne. They've dropped them 3 or 4 times now and each time they are unsupported and just wasted.

---

Awful logistics. Anyone signing off on those battle plans needs to be fired.

Unconfirmed/conflicting reports of US ambassador expelled from Russia.

Never mind. Just re-watched it. I bet you're right.

Bridge in Baryshivka near Kyiv was dropped today pic.twitter.com/q7sE3ulOfG

— OSINTtechnical (@Osinttechnical) March 2, 2022

Ag In Ok said:

---

Agthatbuilds said:

---

According to U.S. officials speaking today, ~100,000 #Russia troops inside #Ukraine (~70% of its entire deployed force) is running out, or has already run out of fuel & food.

— Charles Lister (@Charles_Lister) March 2, 2022

---

A hit to their western flank encircling Kiev would be a disaster for them - especially if they can relink up with the west. The forces left on the south can be dealt with. Would they refocus the artillery off of the city to a counterattack or continue to pound and bring in reinforcements or more air power?

---

Thats what I've been wondering. Surely there were Uke troops stationed in the western part of the country that are making their way east to Kiev. Or were they all deployed in the eastern part of the country in anticipation for the invasion.

You just cut out all the other crap from the "embed" and just use the https info.

⚡️Loud blasts heard in Kyiv.

— The Kyiv Independent (@KyivIndependent) March 2, 2022

I'd have to imagine that the bulk of their forces, including their best units, were deployed in the east.

TRM said:

---

Bridge in Baryshivka near Kyiv was dropped today pic.twitter.com/q7sE3ulOfG

— OSINTtechnical (@Osinttechnical) March 2, 2022

---

Bridge located at 50.3618663, 31.340175 for those curious. Cuts off the path into Barhshivka from the east over the Trubizh River

Let's see if I got it.

Video reportedly of fighting in Mariupol. https://t.co/zBj1qj5VTw pic.twitter.com/S60TeWUJOv

— Rob Lee (@RALee85) March 2, 2022

The Ukraine General Staff update at 12:00 today added this:
"In the Nizhyn direction - moved in the direction of Nova Basan, Kozelets." pic.twitter.com/r1h9MVHGZA

— Henry Schlottman (@HN_Schlottman) March 2, 2022

If the part about 1st GTA being in Bohodukhiv was correct, I was slightly off with the map of I posted about 13 hours ago. It could be elements of 4th or 47th GTD. All this information can be found at @GeneralStaffUA

— Henry Schlottman (@HN_Schlottman) March 2, 2022

SPSAg05 said:

---

@AFP STOCKHOLM: Four Russian fighter jets violate Swedish airspace over Baltic Sea: military

— Sebastian Smith (@SebastianAFP) March 2, 2022

If we can't brrrrrt them, can we bork them?

---

sounds like a zorch possibility. Get some funny looking kids that way.

With as many abandoned MLRS tweets as we've seen it makes you wonder how many Russia has left. I'm going to assume reality of the abandoned vehicles is somewhere in the middle.

Nvm, tweet deleted

Agthatbuilds said:

---

According to U.S. officials speaking today, ~100,000 #Russia troops inside #Ukraine (~70% of its entire deployed force) is running out, or has already run out of fuel & food.

— Charles Lister (@Charles_Lister) March 2, 2022

---

Praying that they'll effectively block themselves from encircling Kyiv with all that heavy gear out of gas, along with a Javelin strike or two. If that means supplies and reinforcements can keep streaming into Kyiv and taking the city becomes near futile, I see a possible ceasefire being negotiated.

I don't think Putin would carpet bomb Kyiv, the ancient capital of Rus. I desperately hope I'm right.