shiftyandquick said:

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At the Pentagon, a Tuesday morning background briefing about the war in Ukraine with a senior U.S. defense official has concluded. Important updates:

— Dan Lamothe (@DanLamothe) March 1, 2022

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To borrow a line from OR, if it were rainy ***** around Putin, he'd get hit in the face with a ****.

FWIW

https://www.nytimes.com/live/2022/03/01/world/ukraine-russia-war

Quote:

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. . .
Plagued by poor morale as well as fuel and food shortages, some Russian troops in Ukraine have surrendered en masse or sabotaged their own vehicles to avoid fighting, a senior Pentagon official said on Tuesday.

Some entire Russian units have laid down their arms without a fight after confronting surprisingly stiff Ukrainian defense, the official said. A significant number of the Russian troops are young conscripts who are poorly trained and ill-prepared for the all-out assault. And in some cases, Russian troops have deliberately punched holes in their vehicles' gas tanks, presumably to avoid combat, the official said.

The Pentagon official declined to say how the military made these assessments presumably a mosaic of intelligence including statements from captured Russian soldiers and communications intercepts or how widespread these setbacks may be across the sprawling battlefield.

But taken together, these factors may help explain why Russian forces, including an ominous 40-mile convoy of tanks and armored vehicles near Kyiv, Ukraine's capital, has come to a near crawl in the past day or two, U.S. officials said.

Besides dealing with shortages of fuel, food and spare parts, the Pentagon official said, Russian commanders leading that armored column toward Kyiv may also be "regrouping and rethinking" their battle plans, making adjustments on the fly to gain momentum for what U.S. intelligence and military officials say is an inevitable push in the next several days to encircle and ultimately capture the capital.
. . .
But U.S. analysts have been struck by the "risk-averse behavior" of such a large force, the Pentagon official said. Russia launched an amphibious landing to seize Mariupol, a pivotal port city on the Sea of Azov, but landed forces around 40 miles from the city. That allowed the Russians extra time and space to mount an invasion, but also gave the city's defenders time to prepare.

Russia's vaunted air force has yet to gain air superiority over Ukraine, with Russian warplanes thwarted by Ukrainian fighter jets and a surprisingly resilient and potent array of air defenses, from shoulder-fired Stinger antiaircraft missiles to much larger surface-to-air weapons, the Pentagon official said.
. . .

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I am still in utter disbelief of the ineptitude of the Russian military.

About the communications issues.

When I was in the Army vehicle FM radios had a theoretical range of 25 miles(LOS). But this was seldom the case. While deployed to Iraq/Afghanistan FM comms range was significantly shorter, because of all the RF interference that was being spewed over there.

There are ways to get around that with re-transmission sites.

Could also use satellite communications, but this can sometimes be hard while on the move.

ETA: It is incredibly hard to do much of anything without communications to high echelons.

At some point China will get nervous that all it will take is a coup just above level of the Turkish fiasco and they could have a pro west Russia to their north.

will25u said:

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I am still in utter disbelief of the ineptitude of the Russian military.

About the communications issues.

When I was in the Army vehicle FM radios had a theoretical range of 25 miles(LOS). But this was seldom the case. While deployed to Iraq/Afghanistan FM comms range was significantly shorter, because of all the RF interference that was being spewed over there.

There are ways to get around that with re-transmission sites.

Could also use satellite communications, but this can sometimes be hard while on the move.

ETA: It is incredibly hard to do much of anything without communications to high echelons.

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Don't forget that there's been several reports of Russians having gotten lost and having to ask for directions. Which at this point are becoming more and more believable in my eyes. We have also seen that their GLONASS system is apparently not good, which is supposed to be their GPS counterpart, if we go by their cruise and Iksandr missiles failing to actually hit critical targets like runways.

This is why they were accompanied by comrade commissars back in the day. Seems they don't play for very long without any fear of giving up.

Update on the fight for key Ukrainian cities: DEFENSE

jabberwalkie09 said:

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PJYoung said:

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BREAKING: U.S. believes Russia has committed more than 80 percent of pre-staged troops into Ukraine: senior U.S. defense official.

Russia has not been able to advance on Kyiv due to fuel & sustainment problems. "Not only are they running out of gas, they're running out of food"

— Jack Detsch (@JackDetsch) March 1, 2022

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Three things a war needs: beans (food and fuel), bullets (ammo for arms), and bodies. The Russians clearly don't get this.

Not that I am complaining about their logistical woes aT all. **** 'em.

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An Army is driven by its stomach.

DannyDuberstein said:

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We're seeing why they lost the cold war. Their entire system is ****ed and they don't have the resources. That said, if they decide to roll over Ukraine in a completely destructive manner vs strategically cutting the head off, they could do so. They are trying not to destroy what they want to conquer

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They certainly have the resources to win this, but it doesn't appear they have the logistical/military leadership to do it efficiently whatsoever.

Yup. Office of the Russian prosecutor general has blocked the sites of @tvrain and Echo of Moscow, two of the last independent Russian broadcasters, for "false reporting" on the war. https://t.co/hWgBKWkW91

— Julia Ioffe (@juliaioffe) March 1, 2022

Fitch said:

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Apologies if already posted.

#Putin isn’t fighting just a military in #Ukraine

He is fighting over 40 millions people in a war that will never end and he can never win

pic.twitter.com/HBoTswxFd4

— Marco Rubio (@marcorubio) March 1, 2022

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Frankly I'm hoping that the arms shipments that all the countries said they're sending have made their way there already. But I fully expect the relevant parties to just procrastinate until it's to late and they go "well we tried."

Is the best Uke strategic plan to let RU forces in and then cut off their supplies?

They ain't going anywhere fast, it appears...

Putin likely has spent far more of his attention insulating himself from any sort of coup attempt than anything else.

FireAg said:

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Is the best Uke strategic plan to let RU forces in and then cut off their supplies?

They ain't going anywhere fast, it appears...

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Considering the number of convoys that have been smashed up recently look like resupply lines, I think that is a fair assessment. It was also discussed earlier on in the invasion that given their limited resources and technological inferior equipment (air and armor) that attacking the supply lines was probably their best chance at delaying the Russians.

Oh nos

Telephone conversation with President of Venezuela Nicolas Maduro: Russia-Venezuela strategic partnership, situation in Ukraine https://t.co/GHuW2dSZcZ

— President of Russia (@KremlinRussia_E) March 1, 2022

jabberwalkie09 said:

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Fitch said:

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Apologies if already posted.

#Putin isn’t fighting just a military in #Ukraine

He is fighting over 40 millions people in a war that will never end and he can never win

pic.twitter.com/HBoTswxFd4

— Marco Rubio (@marcorubio) March 1, 2022

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Frankly I'm hoping that the arms shipments that all the countries said they're sending have made their way there already. But I fully expect the relevant parties to just procrastinate until it's to late and they go "well we tried."

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Still Getting Through

Kharkiv tonight. Looks like heavy MLRS fire possibly with cluster munitions. https://t.co/RUWw2R3Ndc pic.twitter.com/WEKDsCzV7U

— Rob Lee (@RALee85) March 1, 2022

Sully Dog said:

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ATX_AG_08 said:

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A person filmed the moment when a tank fired a shell towards the building where he was. This video would have been filmed in Borodianka, I am working on the geolocation.pic.twitter.com/du5XwFCvnF

— C O U P S U R E (@COUPSURE) March 1, 2022

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I feel like you would want to move as another round is likely incoming

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What hostile force in the residential apartments is the tank firing at?

#UPDATE: Major explosion reported at an airbase near Kharkiv, possible ammunition depot hit pic.twitter.com/OdqTkaQvy9

— ELINT News (@ELINTNews) March 1, 2022

74OA said:

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jabberwalkie09 said:

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Fitch said:

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Apologies if already posted.

#Putin isn’t fighting just a military in #Ukraine

He is fighting over 40 millions people in a war that will never end and he can never win

pic.twitter.com/HBoTswxFd4

— Marco Rubio (@marcorubio) March 1, 2022

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Frankly I'm hoping that the arms shipments that all the countries said they're sending have made their way there already. But I fully expect the relevant parties to just procrastinate until it's to late and they go "well we tried."

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Still Getting Through

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Love it.

JobSecurity said:

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#UPDATE: Major explosion reported at an airbase near Kharkiv, possible ammunition depot hit pic.twitter.com/OdqTkaQvy9

— ELINT News (@ELINTNews) March 1, 2022

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That looks like the bombing from 2 days ago.

Nvm

JFABNRGR said:

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aTmAg said:

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JobSecurity said:

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Looks like this was wrong yesterday

It's official - Europe won't transfer fighter planes to Ukraine. Poland decided not to, and Slovakian defense ministry spokesperson confirms to me just now: “Slovakia will not provide fighter jets to Ukraine."

— Paul McLeary (@paulmcleary) March 1, 2022

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I think it's more likely that the rest of NATO threatened Poland out of it.

NATO has made it clear that Ukraine is on their own. Basically saying "Good luck dudes. Maybe we'll let you in NATO if you somehow pull this out."

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Hopefully this is all kabuki theatre. If not Ukraine is done without direct air or missile attacks on russian vehicles. The promise to supply All the shoulder fired anti tank weapons in the world wont be enough to repel the russians.

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My opinion on this is that the Ukraine is hanging in there by a thread with the supplied weapons already on the way, Russians haven't been dominant so far, the EU and NATO want to give it a few days to see if sanctions cause Russia and the Oligarchs to throw Putin out, thus not escalate it so that Putin does something more dumber than he has already done .. if Russia starts slaughtering civilians the NATO will take all of the invading troops out and maybe take out Belarus while they are cleaning shop

But let's see what siezing the Oligarchs billions does first

JobSecurity said:

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#UPDATE: Major explosion reported at an airbase near Kharkiv, possible ammunition depot hit pic.twitter.com/OdqTkaQvy9

— ELINT News (@ELINTNews) March 1, 2022

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That happened yesterday I think.

Bubblez said:

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Putin likely has spent far more of his attention insulating himself from any sort of coup attempt than anything else.

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Yeah, I was about to say that staging a coup against the former head of the KGB is probably not as easy as people seem to want to make it. I doubt he lets very many armed people anywhere near him.

Ag In Ok said:

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Isn't that a repeat of their Georgian invasion where i recall seeing tank commanders out of the hatch and on their cell talking with their leadership?

Also, if they are iPhones is there a way we can locate Russian purchase iPhones in Ukraine and shut them down? Isn't this was the nsa is for?

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The Chechen's were in Ukraine securing SIM cards. It was early in this thread.