Not sure if this has been shared, but apparently the idea that Kyiv is encircled might be literal Russian disinformation.

https://nypost.com/2022/02/27/kyiv-fully-encircled-by-russia-millions-trapped-mayor/

Quote:

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Kyiv's mayor said in an interview Sunday that Ukraine's capital was fully "encircled" by Russian troops with no way out only to try to backtrack hours later by claiming he was the victim of Russian "lies."

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Quote:

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Mayor Vitali Klitschko, a former heavyweight boxing champ, had told The Associated Press in a recorded interview that it was now impossible to evacuate the city "because all ways are blocked.

"Right now, we are encircled," he told the wire service of those remaining in the city of 2.8 million, many of whom have been forced to hide in bunker-like subway stations amid ongoing shelling.

"We are at the border of a humanitarian catastrophe," he said of dwindling stocks of food and medicine.

Then hours later, Klitschko took to Facebook and Telegram to claim reports of the city being surrounded and inescapable were the work of "Russian Internet editions" spreading misinformation.

"Don't believe the lies! Trust information only from official sources," he claimed.

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Now, the question is... which one is really lying? Both Ukraine and Russia are good at that.

Interesting that the tankers we had sitting just west of Ukraine have headed back west, without anybody replacing them. Or at least without a replacement with a transponder squawking. Wonder if they tanked up the Polish Migs just before they headed into Ukraine airspace.

BTHOtrolls said:

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Thanks for posting, this is information that makes TexAgs such a great community. Hope your friend stays safe and maintains internet to provide further updates.

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Thanks. Last I heard from a Lithuanian energy exec I know was that he and his son (a doctor) had been called up. Not expecting to hear from him anytime soon.

Twitter says this is the first time since it started that we haven't had at least one tanker up

All tankers RTB? 👀 0150 Zulu pic.twitter.com/0uwM08UzA3

— Thenewarea51 (@thenewarea51) February 28, 2022

JB!98 said:

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Unless they have some way of refueling the Mig-29's they don't have the combat radius to get to Kyiv from Lviv and have any on station time. They really can't make if from Poland to Kyiv and back. The Mig-29 has short legs like the F-18, I just don't know how they will get them close enough to the action to be effective.

Unless they are meant to be CAP over the West as a last resort.

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We've regularly had 1-2 Stratotankers circling Romanian airspace. UK has their tanker up there at times as well. Today, we had 2 Strato's and a KC10 Extender.

Now, will the Ukranian's be allowed to use them? That I don't know.

JobSecurity said:

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Twitter says this is the first time since it started that we haven't had at least one tanker up

All tankers RTB? 👀 0150 Zulu pic.twitter.com/0uwM08UzA3

— Thenewarea51 (@thenewarea51) February 28, 2022

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RTB? does this mean no transponders?

JobSecurity said:

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Twitter says this is the first time since it started that we haven't had at least one tanker up

All tankers RTB? 👀 0150 Zulu pic.twitter.com/0uwM08UzA3

— Thenewarea51 (@thenewarea51) February 28, 2022

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Twitter is wrong on that. See my post above. There's been a few times with none up there, at night that I've seen.

returning to base I assume

JobSecurity said:

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Twitter says this is the first time since it started that we haven't had at least one tanker up

All tankers RTB? 👀 0150 Zulu pic.twitter.com/0uwM08UzA3

— Thenewarea51 (@thenewarea51) February 28, 2022

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Maybe they are worried about retaliation for sending euro planes

What does this mean? Is it good or bad?

If they can't get to Putin, kill those most loyal to him, sooner or later he'll have no one to follow his orders.

TriAg2010 said:

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ttu_85 said:

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txags92 said:

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ttu_85 said:

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jabberwalkie09 said:

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Jsimonds58 said:

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Wow, the European Union has just announced after the earlier announcement that NATO Provided Combat Aircraft will be Fighting in Ukrainian Airspace within the next hour, this could completely change the War.

— OSINTdefender (@sentdefender) February 27, 2022

Holy ****

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Flying in #Ukraine skies within the hour. https://t.co/8NKJiP8upG

— Alexandre Krauss (@AlexandreKrausz) February 27, 2022

Guy is a senior advisor EU parliament.

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Then he is a dumbass announcing this. Good lord !!!

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What if it is cover? Claim "NATO is giving them new jets that will be in the air shortly", then fly in a few pairs of F35s to dismantle the Russian armored columns traveling toward Kiev. Gives plausible deniability...as has been said, Putin is going to take it the same either way, so why go to the trouble of sending old crap planes.

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Several problems. THe mig-29's are not at all stealthy. The F-35 is pretty darn but not perfectly stealthy. And advance radar could tell the difference. Besides the the F-35 is a front line NATO fighter first. Yes it can do ground attacks but how well? Four are not going to do it well enough to "dismantle" a Russian armored thrust.

The take away: Very high escalation risk for a minimal to moderate military return.

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Introducing new battlefield tech (F-35s) is definitely more of an escalation that providing Ukraine more of something they already have (MiG-29s). It's a very fine line to walk. We want to defeat Russia without provoking them to escalate or retaliate in some new way.

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The Link 16 is definitely not something that the Ukrainians already had but it's only going to be useful for a pilot that is familiar with it. I am not a pilot but I know that the data that flows over Link 16 can allow even MiG 29s to do some amazing things in terms of target handoff.

this is the location of the supposed russian pontoon crossing attempt

The destruction of the bridge over Irpin River outside Demydiv yesterday is now visible on satellite images. https://t.co/9veXe85tsz pic.twitter.com/ZT3xTMxQ6A

— Brady Africk (@bradyafr) February 28, 2022

dtkprowler said:

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What does this mean? Is it good or bad?

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Probably nothing up there to refuel at the moment. I wouldn't make too much of it...it's not the first time.

No Spin Ag said:

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Waffledynamics said:

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If true, it’s probably the first tank ever stolen by a farmer… ))
Ukrainians are tough cookies indeed. #StandWithUkraine #russiagohome pic.twitter.com/TY0sigffaM

— olexander scherba🇺🇦 (@olex_scherba) February 27, 2022

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Now that was awesome!

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For anyone who missed it.



The Russians are getting totally embarrassed.

So it must be safe to assume talks have broken down. Whoever the new general is for full support to throw in Belarus (passively admitting defeat to take Kiev) and ten or so divisions along the coast. Guess they are going to ride the shift in strategy for now.

ABATTBQ11 said:

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flakrat said:

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txags92 said:

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JobSecurity said:

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This has been rumored all day but this is the biggest outlet to pick it up

Multiple sources say the decision has been made — and as soon as on Feb. 28 at 5 a.m. local time, the first Ilyushin Il-76 transport aircraft is very likely to take off carrying Belarusian paratroopers to be deployed against Ukraine. https://t.co/o8WcszVJNR

— The Kyiv Independent (@KyivIndependent) February 28, 2022

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Would be nice to see those new EU migs setup on the Belarus border and smoke those paratroopers out of the sky within a few minutes of entering UK airspace.

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Or spread a bunch of stingers along the border!

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Don't have the range. Stinger is a short range missile. They could potentially get them on ascent or descent, but not cruising altitude.

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I think its important that everyone understands that the stinger is only good to about 10,000 ft and its slant range depends on the altitude of the target. Good against helo's and low flying aircraft. No impact to aircraft at an operating altitude. Now you can probably smack a IL-76 during their drop run, but with a 2lb warhead I think you might need more than one hit to bring one down.

Any chance they are replacing them with tankers with transponder turned off?

buzzardb267 said:

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Any chance they are replacing them with tankers with transponder turned off?

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I was just about to post this as well. A big: None are up there, "that we know of."

Strongweasel97 said:

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JB!98 said:

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Unless they have some way of refueling the Mig-29's they don't have the combat radius to get to Kyiv from Lviv and have any on station time. They really can't make if from Poland to Kyiv and back. The Mig-29 has short legs like the F-18, I just don't know how they will get them close enough to the action to be effective.

Unless they are meant to be CAP over the West as a last resort.

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We've regularly had 1-2 Stratotankers circling Romanian airspace. UK has their tanker up there at times as well. Today, we had 2 Strato's and a KC10 Extender.

Now, will the Ukranian's be allowed to use them? That I don't know.

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Yeah, but you would need to tank the Mig 29's someplace between Lviv and Kyiv. That is in a high threat environment.

JB!98 said:

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ABATTBQ11 said:

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flakrat said:

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txags92 said:

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JobSecurity said:

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This has been rumored all day but this is the biggest outlet to pick it up

Multiple sources say the decision has been made — and as soon as on Feb. 28 at 5 a.m. local time, the first Ilyushin Il-76 transport aircraft is very likely to take off carrying Belarusian paratroopers to be deployed against Ukraine. https://t.co/o8WcszVJNR

— The Kyiv Independent (@KyivIndependent) February 28, 2022

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Would be nice to see those new EU migs setup on the Belarus border and smoke those paratroopers out of the sky within a few minutes of entering UK airspace.

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Or spread a bunch of stingers along the border!

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Don't have the range. Stinger is a short range missile. They could potentially get them on ascent or descent, but not cruising altitude.

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I think its important that everyone understands that the stinger is only good to about 10,000 ft and its slant range depends on the altitude of the target. Good against helo's and low flying aircraft. No impact to aircraft at an operating altitude. Now you can probably smack a IL-76 during their drop run, but with a 2lb warhead I think you might need more than one hit to bring one down.

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From what altitude do paratroopers debark a aircraft using static lines? If the Ukrainians have some idea of the likely drop zones then they might very well be able to seed the area and likely approaches with stingers.

Perhaps a friendly AWACS flying over the Black Sea could send some info over Link 16 to a MiG 29 that would be able to easily intercept an IL-76.

buzzardb267 said:

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Any chance they are replacing them with tankers with transponder turned off

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Are there any AWACS that are showing up? I would be more concerned if there were no AWACS.

JB!98 said:

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Strongweasel97 said:

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JB!98 said:

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Unless they have some way of refueling the Mig-29's they don't have the combat radius to get to Kyiv from Lviv and have any on station time. They really can't make if from Poland to Kyiv and back. The Mig-29 has short legs like the F-18, I just don't know how they will get them close enough to the action to be effective.

Unless they are meant to be CAP over the West as a last resort.

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We've regularly had 1-2 Stratotankers circling Romanian airspace. UK has their tanker up there at times as well. Today, we had 2 Strato's and a KC10 Extender.

Now, will the Ukranian's be allowed to use them? That I don't know.

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Yeah, but you would need to tank the Mig 29's someplace between Lviv and Kyiv. That is in a high threat environment.

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Good point.

Live stream, Kiev has sound. What time the Paratroopers expected?

“If #Ukraine holds out for 10 days, #Russia will have to capitulate, sitting at the negotiating table,” ex-State Duma deputy Ilya Ponomarev

— NEXTA (@nexta_tv) February 28, 2022

Agthatbuilds said:

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JobSecurity said:

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Twitter says this is the first time since it started that we haven't had at least one tanker up

All tankers RTB? 👀 0150 Zulu pic.twitter.com/0uwM08UzA3

— Thenewarea51 (@thenewarea51) February 28, 2022

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Maybe they are worried about retaliation for sending euro planes

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Looks like one of those was ours. It's a KC135 that was poking holes in the sky for a bit.

TriAg2010 said:

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aTmAg said:

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Why is always America who is concerned with escalation? Seems like the last war where we didn't care was WW2. Which, ironically, is the last war we really won. Maybe that is not a coincidence?

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There is long-standing concern that tit-for-tat escalations between nuclear powers leads to nuclear war. That is not exclusively an American perspective. We have never warred against a nuclear power, nor has Russia. The more we ratchet lethal aid to Ukraine and sanctions on Russia, the more we risk entering fully into war with Russia - a nuclear power - with the aforementioned concern of a slipper slope towards nukes flying. I think they are manageable risks, but we must act deliberately and consider how our actions will be perceived.

Honestly the biggest concern I have right now isn't providing lethal aid to Ukraine, it's that Europe has closed all available air space to reach Kaliningrad. I think that's a really bad idea because it pokes directly at one of Russia's biggest fears and insecurities without really advancing our war fighting objective. That's the kind of careless escalation we don't need that could make the conflict worse.

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The question was rhetorical.

We have warred against a nuclear power. Both the Soviet Union and China participated in Vietnam and killed American soldiers. They used our weakness and fear of escalation against us. They knew we would not attack them so they were emboldened to attack us. That is why we never win wars anymore.

Our enemies should be afraid as hell to join anybody against us. Hell even a non-nuclear Iran has no qualms fighting us in wars. It's pathetic.

One thing that Ghengis Kahn got right was to treat your friends damn well, and crush your enemies if they attack you and anybody who helps them. Hell, he once crushed a former ally who pulled a Biden and refused to help when Mongolia was attacked. He understood that you needed to make it so people want to be your friend and do NOT want to be your enemy. What he did wrong, was go out looking for a fight wherever he can. That and genocide. We shouldn't do any of that part.

Ulysses90 said:

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JB!98 said:

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ABATTBQ11 said:

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flakrat said:

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txags92 said:

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JobSecurity said:

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This has been rumored all day but this is the biggest outlet to pick it up

Multiple sources say the decision has been made — and as soon as on Feb. 28 at 5 a.m. local time, the first Ilyushin Il-76 transport aircraft is very likely to take off carrying Belarusian paratroopers to be deployed against Ukraine. https://t.co/o8WcszVJNR

— The Kyiv Independent (@KyivIndependent) February 28, 2022

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Would be nice to see those new EU migs setup on the Belarus border and smoke those paratroopers out of the sky within a few minutes of entering UK airspace.

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Or spread a bunch of stingers along the border!

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Don't have the range. Stinger is a short range missile. They could potentially get them on ascent or descent, but not cruising altitude.

---

I think its important that everyone understands that the stinger is only good to about 10,000 ft and its slant range depends on the altitude of the target. Good against helo's and low flying aircraft. No impact to aircraft at an operating altitude. Now you can probably smack a IL-76 during their drop run, but with a 2lb warhead I think you might need more than one hit to bring one down.

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From what altitude do paratroopers debark a aircraft using static lines? If the Ukrainians have some idea of the likely drop zones then they might very well be able to seed the area and likely approaches with stingers.

Perhaps a friendly AWACS flying over the Black Sea could send some info over Link 16 to a MiG 29 that would be able to easily intercept an IL-76.

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I have no idea the altitude of a normal drop. Someone on here knows for sure.

txags92 said:

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Interesting that the tankers we had sitting just west of Ukraine have headed back west, without anybody replacing them. Or at least without a replacement with a transponder squawking. Wonder if they tanked up the Polish Migs just before they headed into Ukraine airspace.

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Let's just all be serious on this, I promise if the EU is giving the Ukraine these planes, you can be dam sure they will make sure they are refueled, they won't be telling any of us or Russia where / how they are refueling them but you can bet your arse they are "safely" being refueled as needed

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