AustinAg2K said:

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I feel like a lot of people are getting way ahead of themselves. This is only day 3. Yes, Ukraine is fighting hard and the invasion isn't going 100% as planned, but in all likelihood Russia will still take Kiev and install some sort of puppet government. It sounds like a lot people here think Ukraine has won because they are fighting back.

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JB!98 said:

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Agthatbuilds said:

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Something going down on top right quadrant

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Watching this just tells that Ivan has next to zero night fighting capabilities. They are waiting until daybreak to move in or start fighting in earnest if the actually have the forces to do so. Night fighting has been a thing since the late 80's and they aren't even close it seems. Couple that with their failures at air superiority and logistics and they are not ready for prime time.

I wonder if China is another paper tiger.

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Ulrich said:

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It seems like if Russia had finished the deal immediately without too much resistance, everyone was prepared to accept it. The longer Ukraine holds out and makes it clear that they really don't want this, the more governments around the world feel compelled to exert pressure on Russia.

Russia has broken the norms expected of modern nation states.

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Jayhawk said:

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erudite said:

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No source. But a friend caught this. Says 26th because they are in GMT +1.

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Any other source reporting that he has removed gerasimov? That is significant if true.

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GAC06 said:

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JB!98 said:

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Agthatbuilds said:

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Something going down on top right quadrant

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Watching this just tells that Ivan has next to zero night fighting capabilities. They are waiting until daybreak to move in or start fighting in earnest if the actually have the forces to do so. Night fighting has been a thing since the late 80's and they aren't even close it seems. Couple that with their failures at air superiority and logistics and they are not ready for prime time.

I wonder if China is another paper tiger.

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NVG's in a city that's still lit up would suck. Especially older NVG's

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FireAg said:

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Talon2DSO said:

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FireAg said:

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Talon2DSO said:

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I'm not at all willing to say this is over. Putin will double down. He can't afford not to. He needs to go big, very big or lose face for a generation. That's not his style. This is going to get far uglier.

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At this point, he loses face NO MATTER WHAT…

Even if he conquers Ukraine, he loses at this point…

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Thats the fear. If he's already facing a zero sum game, so might everyone else.

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Which is why it might be wise for someone on the inside to take his ass out…

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⚡️Russian forces fired at radioactive waste disposal site in Kyiv.

According to preliminary assessment of the State Nuclear Regulatory Inspectorate of Ukraine, there is no threat to people outside the sanitary protection zone.

— The Kyiv Independent (@KyivIndependent) February 27, 2022

From the nuclear agency pic.twitter.com/qO62OGtEt5

— Olga Lautman 🇺🇦 (@OlgaNYC1211) February 27, 2022

Agthatbuilds said:

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Ulrich said:

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It seems like if Russia had finished the deal immediately without too much resistance, everyone was prepared to accept it. The longer Ukraine holds out and makes it clear that they really don't want this, the more governments around the world feel compelled to exert pressure on Russia.

Russia has broken the norms expected of modern nation states.

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I think the bigger thing would a quick, easy Russian victory would have reinforced the image of Russia being a world power. Instead, this shows that maybe they are not a big bad power one needs to really account for. It shows their army is either poorly equipped, poorly led or both. It reminds everyone their economy is smaller that texas.

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CondensedFoggyAggie said:

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I hope the promised shipment of anti tank weapons from various countries the last few days has made it into the hands of the defenders. On top of the thousands shipped last month.

They should be pretty good at using them at this point.

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Marvin said:

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FireAg said:

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Talon2DSO said:

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FireAg said:

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Talon2DSO said:

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I'm not at all willing to say this is over. Putin will double down. He can't afford not to. He needs to go big, very big or lose face for a generation. That's not his style. This is going to get far uglier.

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At this point, he loses face NO MATTER WHAT…

Even if he conquers Ukraine, he loses at this point…

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Thats the fear. If he's already facing a zero sum game, so might everyone else.

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Which is why it might be wise for someone on the inside to take his ass out…

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I'd like to think this can happen, but I'm not sure he's vulnerable enough for anyone to pull it off.

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wildmen09 said:

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Let's just say for a second, potential crazy talk, sanction work, Russian military is on the run. Do we lift sanctions as they retreat or do we go for the jugular and make the commies denuke or some other MAJOR concession?

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Agsuffering@bulaw said:

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China was probably seriously contemplating invading Taiwan. Their demographic window is closing and they perceive the current administration as weak based on Afghanistan.

The present Russian debacle probably gives them a lot of pause. As I understand it, the Taiwanese are bad mfers with far better armaments than the Ukes. Plus, it would be amphibious as opposed to open plains.

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mts6175 said:

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DapperDanMan said:

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I don't think Ukraine has this won, but the world, with some obvious exceptions, is starting to wake up and help. Cities may fall, Kiev may fall and a puppet government may be installed, but I think the Ukrainian people will not stop fighting. Eventually the Russians will be gone. The Chechens will be gone. Ukraine will remain.

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I honestly think a NATO country ends up engaging in this in the Ukraine within the next two weeks. Won't drag all of NATO into this, but Poland/Germany/etc someone ends up engaging. The repercussions of Russia succeeding on this is too big, especially now there is talk of nukes moving to Belarus That may be the straw that breaks the camel's back that gets everyone involved.

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aeroag14 said:

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Seabreeze said:

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Agsuffering@bulaw said:

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China was probably seriously contemplating invading Taiwan. Their demographic window is closing and they perceive the current administration as weak based on Afghanistan.

The present Russian debacle probably gives them a lot of pause. As I understand it, the Taiwanese are bad mfers with far better armaments than the Ukes. Plus, it would be amphibious as opposed to open plains.

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You don't just take an Island

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It would take the largest military operation in human history to invade taiwan

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TH36 said:

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I looked up plane tickets to get to Poland today, $1100 and I could be within a short drive of the Ukraine border. If I didn't have a wife and child, I might just do it. All I ever dreamed of when I was kid was being in the military but mine wouldn't take me cause I've got asthma. I bet they'd hand me a AK over there and welcome anyone with open arms willing to fight. I absolutely love these people. We've got to keep showing them how much the world loves them. I hope they somehow know that the whole world is stressed out over their situation hanging on with them. They will go down in history no matter what happens as putting up one of the greatest fights the world has ever seen.

Sorry if this is a derail. I can't tell y'all how much I appreciate y'all keeping this going. It's been a wealth of info for those of us who have no social media accounts of our own to dig some of this stuff up. I've been relying on YouTube live streams.

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74OA said:

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wildmen09 said:

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Let's just say for a second, potential crazy talk, sanction work, Russian military is on the run. Do we lift sanctions as they retreat or do we go for the jugular and make the commies denuke or some other MAJOR concession?

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Lifted only when Russia pays reparations to Ukraine to rebuild their ravaged country.

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aeroag14 said:

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Seabreeze said:

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Agsuffering@bulaw said:

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China was probably seriously contemplating invading Taiwan. Their demographic window is closing and they perceive the current administration as weak based on Afghanistan.

The present Russian debacle probably gives them a lot of pause. As I understand it, the Taiwanese are bad mfers with far better armaments than the Ukes. Plus, it would be amphibious as opposed to open plains.

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You don't just take an Island

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It would take the largest military operation in human history to invade taiwan

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ttu_85 said:

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mts6175 said:

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Seabreeze said:

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mts6175 said:

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DapperDanMan said:

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I don't think Ukraine has this won, but the world, with some obvious exceptions, is starting to wake up and help. Cities may fall, Kiev may fall and a puppet government may be installed, but I think the Ukrainian people will not stop fighting. Eventually the Russians will be gone. The Chechens will be gone. Ukraine will remain.

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I honestly think a NATO country ends up engaging in this in the Ukraine within the next two weeks. Won't drag all of NATO into this, but Poland/Germany/etc someone ends up engaging. The repercussions of Russia succeeding on this is too big, especially now there is talk of nukes moving to Belarus That may be the straw that breaks the camel's back that gets everyone involved.

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If anyone gets involved it will be Poland first. I don't have Intel or anything but my gut tells me they may engage sooner than later.

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That's really what I think. Poland has a lot more to lose than anyone else if he decides to turn North. I just think moving in nukes changes the game for everyone.

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Why? Russia has all manor of nukes, tactical, intermediate ranged, ICBMs, SLBMs, Cruise missiles, bomber deployed, etc. Moving the nukes and publishing it is political gaming and meant to scare people. It is of no additional military value given Russia's existing nuke and delivery systems mix.

This is to screw with your head and make you shake in fear of the Russian Bear.

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aeroag14 said:

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Seabreeze said:

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Agsuffering@bulaw said:

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China was probably seriously contemplating invading Taiwan. Their demographic window is closing and they perceive the current administration as weak based on Afghanistan.

The present Russian debacle probably gives them a lot of pause. As I understand it, the Taiwanese are bad mfers with far better armaments than the Ukes. Plus, it would be amphibious as opposed to open plains.

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You don't just take an Island

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It would take the largest military operation in human history to invade taiwan

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ttu_85 said:

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mts6175 said:

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That's really what I think. Poland has a lot more to lose than anyone else if he decides to turn North. I just think moving in nukes changes the game for everyone.

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Why? Russia has all manor of nukes, tactical, intermediate ranged, ICBMs, SLBMs, Cruise missiles, bomber deployed, etc. Moving the nukes and publishing it is political gaming and meant to scare people. It is of no additional military value given Russia's existing nuke and delivery systems mix.

This is to screw with your head and make you shake in fear of the Russian Bear.

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