***Russian - Ukraine War Tactical and Strategic Updates*** [Warning on OP]

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JB!98
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In reply to Who?mikejones! • 7:40p, 2/26/22
AG
Agthatbuilds said:


Something going down on top right quadrant
Watching this just tells that Ivan has next to zero night fighting capabilities. They are waiting until daybreak to move in or start fighting in earnest if the actually have the forces to do so. Night fighting has been a thing since the late 80's and they aren't even close it seems. Couple that with their failures at air superiority and logistics and they are not ready for prime time.

I wonder if China is another paper tiger.
Today, unfortunately, many Americans have good reason to fear that they will be victimized if they are unable to protect themselves. And today, no less than in 1791, the Second Amendment guarantees their right to do so. - Justice Samuel Alito 2022
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mts6175
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In reply to johnrth • 7:42p, 2/26/22
AG
johnrth said:
After this debacle put on by Russia, china might be having second thoughts about keeping Russia as an ally. They're the kid that always talked the talk, and came off as big and bad and not someone to mess with. But when push comes to shove and the little guy pops him in the mouth everyone points and laughs at the "big guy" now and his friends bail.
China was never going to keep Russia as an ally. This is a two faced game of chess to align themselves just in case Russia succeeded, but reality they will separate and condemn Russia at the end of this.
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Who?mikejones!
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In reply to JB!98 • 7:42p, 2/26/22
Based on the crap I get which is made in China, I'm gonna go with yes.

And, I also question their current military leaderships experience
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WAF78
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7:43p, 2/26/22
AG
I stumbled on a YouTube channel TheDuran w/ Alex Christoforou from Cyprus talking with Gonzalo Lira who lives in Ukraine and is stuck in a hotel in Kiev and a guy named Alexander. Very good conversation on what is happening in Ukraine and Russia.
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flashplayer
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In reply to JB!98 • 7:46p, 2/26/22
AG
JB!98 said:
Agthatbuilds said:


Something going down on top right quadrant
Watching this just tells that Ivan has next to zero night fighting capabilities. They are waiting until daybreak to move in or start fighting in earnest if the actually have the forces to do so. Night fighting has been a thing since the late 80's and they aren't even close it seems. Couple that with their failures at air superiority and logistics and they are not ready for prime time.

I wonder if China is another paper tiger.


Yeah I've been thinking the same on China. They have lots of troops but their tech can't be any better than Russia. More slave labor available is their big advantage but they will probably only have that for another 20 years.
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erudite
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7:47p, 2/26/22
No source. But a friend caught this. Says 26th because they are in GMT +1.

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agent-maroon
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In reply to Not a Bot • 7:47p, 2/26/22
AG
Captain Positivity said:
Thought it was tracer rounds, but it looks like it's bugs flying in front of the camera.
Flying bugs in February? In Ukraine? Dunno about that...
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JB!98
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In reply to agent-maroon • 7:50p, 2/26/22
AG
agent-maroon said:
Captain Positivity said:
Thought it was tracer rounds, but it looks like it's bugs flying in front of the camera.
Flying bugs in February? In Ukraine? Dunno about that...
Looked like snow flurries to me.
Today, unfortunately, many Americans have good reason to fear that they will be victimized if they are unable to protect themselves. And today, no less than in 1791, the Second Amendment guarantees their right to do so. - Justice Samuel Alito 2022
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AustinAg2K
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7:50p, 2/26/22
I feel like a lot of people are getting way ahead of themselves. This is only day 3. Yes, Ukraine is fighting hard and the invasion isn't going 100% as planned, but in all likelihood Russia will still take Kiev and install some sort of puppet government. It sounds like a lot people here think Ukraine has won because they are fighting back.
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Ag In Ok
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7:51p, 2/26/22
AG
Is the entire Ukrainian leadership in Kiev or have they dispersed to keep continuity of government?
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AggieLit
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In reply to erudite • 7:51p, 2/26/22
erudite said:
No source. But a friend caught this. Says 26th because they are in GMT +1.



To the first comment, I think rolling in a bunch of tanks to take a city is just their playbook. They did it in '56 in Budapest and in '68 in Prague. They are falling back on it because it's familiar but technology has changed.
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Who?mikejones!
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7:52p, 2/26/22
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powerbelly
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In reply to AustinAg2K • 7:52p, 2/26/22
AG
AustinAg2K said:
I feel like a lot of people are getting way ahead of themselves. This is only day 3. Yes, Ukraine is fighting hard and the invasion isn't going 100% as planned, but in all likelihood Russia will still take Kiev and install some sort of puppet government. It sounds like a lot people here think Ukraine has won because they are fighting back.
Even if/when Russia eventually takes Kiev they have lost.

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JB!98
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In reply to AustinAg2K • 7:53p, 2/26/22
AG
AustinAg2K said:
I feel like a lot of people are getting way ahead of themselves. This is only day 3. Yes, Ukraine is fighting hard and the invasion isn't going 100% as planned, but in all likelihood Russia will still take Kiev and install some sort of puppet government. It sounds like a lot people here think Ukraine has won because they are fighting back.
I do not currently doubt this. I am just stating the flaws that I and others have observed.
Today, unfortunately, many Americans have good reason to fear that they will be victimized if they are unable to protect themselves. And today, no less than in 1791, the Second Amendment guarantees their right to do so. - Justice Samuel Alito 2022
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ntxVol
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In reply to erudite • 7:53p, 2/26/22
erudite said:
Ag In Ok said:
I came to a similar conclusion today as well - my concern: did he plan for tactical nukes to be used, somewhere? I fear the only way he sees he can save face and show might involves the unthinkable. Granted, i see no way Russia could survive in its current form at all, but he may roll the dice.

His conventional strength is being set afire by the Ukes. China May prefer Russia fails, they would certainly stake some mythical claim from the Urals to Kamchatka.
China wants Russia to win... Just not in the current time elapsed, ideally it would drag until ~August since a Taiwain straight amphibious op is restricted to June-August. The Chinese consider Mongolia, Tanu Tuva, and the areas north of the Amur that the Russians ceded in the Treaty of Nerchinsk to be the "proper" boundary between it and Russia.
Do people honestly believe China would attempt an amphibious invasion of Taiwan?

China can't be that stupid.
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Seabreeze
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In reply to AustinAg2K • 7:53p, 2/26/22
AustinAg2K said:
I feel like a lot of people are getting way ahead of themselves. This is only day 3. Yes, Ukraine is fighting hard and the invasion isn't going 100% as planned, but in all likelihood Russia will still take Kiev and install some sort of puppet government. It sounds like a lot people here think Ukraine has won because they are fighting back.

Russia has become very desperate it seems, this clearly hasn't gone as planned.
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AggDogg61
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In reply to AustinAg2K • 7:53p, 2/26/22
AustinAg2K said:
I feel like a lot of people are getting way ahead of themselves. This is only day 3. Yes, Ukraine is fighting hard and the invasion isn't going 100% as planned, but in all likelihood Russia will still take Kiev and install some sort of puppet government. It sounds like a lot people here think Ukraine has won because they are fighting back.


A historian would say you sound like the British when they began to fight the 13 colonies.
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FireAg
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In reply to AustinAg2K • 7:54p, 2/26/22
AG
AustinAg2K said:
I feel like a lot of people are getting way ahead of themselves. This is only day 3. Yes, Ukraine is fighting hard and the invasion isn't going 100% as planned, but in all likelihood Russia will still take Kiev and install some sort of puppet government. It sounds like a lot people here think Ukraine has won because they are fighting back.

Look around the world…

Even if Kyiv falls, Russia still loses…
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mts6175
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In reply to AustinAg2K • 7:54p, 2/26/22
AG
AustinAg2K said:
I feel like a lot of people are getting way ahead of themselves. This is only day 3. Yes, Ukraine is fighting hard and the invasion isn't going 100% as planned, but in all likelihood Russia will still take Kiev and install some sort of puppet government. It sounds like a lot people here think Ukraine has won because they are fighting back.
I don't think that's the case, but this isn't looking good for Russia. This is highlighting the fact that they've shown they are not the dominant military force they project to the world, and the fact they will now have the whole world against them on a social and economic level, not just militarily. This was as stupid move by Russia.
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Jayhawk
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In reply to erudite • 7:54p, 2/26/22
erudite said:
No source. But a friend caught this. Says 26th because they are in GMT +1.

Any other source reporting that he has removed gerasimov? That is significant if true.
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DapperDanMan
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In reply to AustinAg2K • 7:55p, 2/26/22
AG
I don't think Ukraine has this won, but the world, with some obvious exceptions, is starting to wake up and help. Cities may fall, Kiev may fall and a puppet government may be installed, but I think the Ukrainian people will not stop fighting. Eventually the Russians will be gone. The Chechens will be gone. Ukraine will remain.
Slava Ukraini!
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Ag In Ok
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In reply to erudite • 7:56p, 2/26/22
AG
I just don't believe China would be satisfied if Russia was in tatters and the resources - long term strategic value is there to be had.
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bonfarr
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In reply to Ag In Ok • 7:56p, 2/26/22
AG
Ag In Ok said:
Is the entire Ukrainian leadership in Kiev or have they dispersed to keep continuity of government?


About half of their Parliament have left Kiev and the rest are hanging tight with many arming themselves, at least when the cameras are around.

The female member of Parliament that has been interviewed on Fox said that right now they are under Martial law with sole authority in the hands of the President and Military leaders so the Parliament does not need to meet. I wonder what Ukraine's succession plan is if Zelenskyy is killed.
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mts6175
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In reply to DapperDanMan • 7:58p, 2/26/22
AG
DapperDanMan said:
I don't think Ukraine has this won, but the world, with some obvious exceptions, is starting to wake up and help. Cities may fall, Kiev may fall and a puppet government may be installed, but I think the Ukrainian people will not stop fighting. Eventually the Russians will be gone. The Chechens will be gone. Ukraine will remain.
I honestly think a NATO country ends up engaging in this in the Ukraine within the next two weeks. Won't drag all of NATO into this, but Poland/Germany/etc someone ends up engaging. The repercussions of Russia succeeding on this is too big, especially now there is talk of nukes moving to Belarus That may be the straw that breaks the camel's back that gets everyone involved.
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LostInLA07
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In reply to mts6175 • 8:00p, 2/26/22
AG
No way Germany makes a move like that. They have a lot of Russian puppet strings attached to them due to their dependence on Russian gas exports. Germany is the reason why "selected" Russian banks were kicked out of the SWIFT system.

Who knows what Poland might do but my bet is on NATO only
moving together. Of note, my prediction on Russia only performing limited incursions was proven wrong less than an hour after I made it.
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Ag In Ok
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8:00p, 2/26/22
AG
I wonder if nukes in Belarus are the last grasp at a strategic gain to offset the loss of not fully conquering Ukraine. I don't think a puppet gov will be set up, there will be fighting until the end. I am expecting them to capture Kiev.
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GarryowenAg
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8:00p, 2/26/22
AG
Little humor during this dark time. (Uke Army related)

https://www.reddit.com/r/Unexpected/comments/t263hx/just_act_natural/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=ios_app&utm_name=iossmf
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Seabreeze
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In reply to mts6175 • 8:01p, 2/26/22
mts6175 said:
DapperDanMan said:
I don't think Ukraine has this won, but the world, with some obvious exceptions, is starting to wake up and help. Cities may fall, Kiev may fall and a puppet government may be installed, but I think the Ukrainian people will not stop fighting. Eventually the Russians will be gone. The Chechens will be gone. Ukraine will remain.
I honestly think a NATO country ends up engaging in this in the Ukraine within the next two weeks. Won't drag all of NATO into this, but Poland/Germany/etc someone ends up engaging. The repercussions of Russia succeeding on this is too big, especially now there is talk of nukes moving to Belarus That may be the straw that breaks the camel's back that gets everyone involved.

If anyone gets involved it will be Poland first. I don't have Intel or anything but my gut tells me they may engage sooner than later.
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Premium
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8:02p, 2/26/22
AG
I hope Zelensky and the Ukraines prevail - and then a movie is made about him - and he plays himself
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Talon2DSO
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In reply to FireAg • 8:04p, 2/26/22
AG
FireAg said:
Talon2DSO said:
I'm not at all willing to say this is over. Putin will double down. He can't afford not to. He needs to go big, very big or lose face for a generation. That's not his style. This is going to get far uglier.

At this point, he loses face NO MATTER WHAT…

Even if he conquers Ukraine, he loses at this point…


Thats the fear. If he's already facing a zero sum game, so might everyone else.
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jabberwalkie09
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In reply to Seabreeze • 8:06p, 2/26/22
AG
Seabreeze said:
mts6175 said:
DapperDanMan said:
I don't think Ukraine has this won, but the world, with some obvious exceptions, is starting to wake up and help. Cities may fall, Kiev may fall and a puppet government may be installed, but I think the Ukrainian people will not stop fighting. Eventually the Russians will be gone. The Chechens will be gone. Ukraine will remain.
I honestly think a NATO country ends up engaging in this in the Ukraine within the next two weeks. Won't drag all of NATO into this, but Poland/Germany/etc someone ends up engaging. The repercussions of Russia succeeding on this is too big, especially now there is talk of nukes moving to Belarus That may be the straw that breaks the camel's back that gets everyone involved.

If anyone gets involved it will be Poland first. I don't have Intel or anything but my gut tells me they may engage sooner than later.

I'm imagining German made Leopards rolling across Eastern Europe shattering Putin's USSR nostalgia.
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mts6175
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In reply to Seabreeze • 8:06p, 2/26/22
AG
Seabreeze said:
mts6175 said:
DapperDanMan said:
I don't think Ukraine has this won, but the world, with some obvious exceptions, is starting to wake up and help. Cities may fall, Kiev may fall and a puppet government may be installed, but I think the Ukrainian people will not stop fighting. Eventually the Russians will be gone. The Chechens will be gone. Ukraine will remain.
I honestly think a NATO country ends up engaging in this in the Ukraine within the next two weeks. Won't drag all of NATO into this, but Poland/Germany/etc someone ends up engaging. The repercussions of Russia succeeding on this is too big, especially now there is talk of nukes moving to Belarus That may be the straw that breaks the camel's back that gets everyone involved.

If anyone gets involved it will be Poland first. I don't have Intel or anything but my gut tells me they may engage sooner than later.
That's really what I think. Poland has a lot more to lose than anyone else if he decides to turn North. I just think moving in nukes changes the game for everyone.
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FireAg
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In reply to Talon2DSO • 8:06p, 2/26/22
AG
Talon2DSO said:
FireAg said:
Talon2DSO said:
I'm not at all willing to say this is over. Putin will double down. He can't afford not to. He needs to go big, very big or lose face for a generation. That's not his style. This is going to get far uglier.

At this point, he loses face NO MATTER WHAT…

Even if he conquers Ukraine, he loses at this point…


Thats the fear. If he's already facing a zero sum game, so might everyone else.

Which is why it might be wise for someone on the inside to take his ass out…
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Jayhawk
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In reply to jabberwalkie09 • 8:07p, 2/26/22
jabberwalkie09 said:
Seabreeze said:
mts6175 said:
DapperDanMan said:
I don't think Ukraine has this won, but the world, with some obvious exceptions, is starting to wake up and help. Cities may fall, Kiev may fall and a puppet government may be installed, but I think the Ukrainian people will not stop fighting. Eventually the Russians will be gone. The Chechens will be gone. Ukraine will remain.
I honestly think a NATO country ends up engaging in this in the Ukraine within the next two weeks. Won't drag all of NATO into this, but Poland/Germany/etc someone ends up engaging. The repercussions of Russia succeeding on this is too big, especially now there is talk of nukes moving to Belarus That may be the straw that breaks the camel's back that gets everyone involved.

If anyone gets involved it will be Poland first. I don't have Intel or anything but my gut tells me they may engage sooner than later.

I'm imagining German made Leopards rolling across Eastern Europe shattering Putin's USSR nostalgia.
If you keep posting like that I won't need viagra
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CondensedFogAggie
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8:08p, 2/26/22
I hope the promised shipment of anti tank weapons from various countries the last few days has made it into the hands of the defenders. On top of the thousands shipped last month.

They should be pretty good at using them at this point.
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