***Russian - Ukraine War Tactical and Strategic Updates*** [Warning on OP]

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Ulysses90
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In reply to LMCane • 2:56p, 2/26/22
AG
LMCane said:
Red Pear Realty said:
do the Chechens have armor or just light infantry?

I have always seen them more as infantry in Syria


The Chechen battalions are motorized infantry that are employed to terrorize the civilian population. In the Georgian War, the Chechens went in first to burn, rape, and pillage. They operated almost alone on the ground for about a week before Putin send in the Russian units ostensibly to "drive away" the Chechens. The Russians treated the GeoRhian civilians with relative civility so they were initially tolerated because the Chechens left.

The Chechens haven't been used effectively because the Russians haven't been able to achieve freedom of movement except in narrow lanes and the Chechens are really only useful for terrorizing unarmed civilians through War crimes.

With respect to the Chechen terrorist battalions specifically in mind, I will eat crow for the statement I made yesterday about an armed civilian populace not deterring a modern military invasion. Small arms won't stop tanks or artillery but they hav damn sure prevented the Chechen battalions from being used.

That's significant because stories of mass rape and murder of civilians is a strong pull on soldiers fighting on another front to rush home to protect their families. I believe that terrorizing civilians is a big part of Putin's plan to force surrender.

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SPSAg05
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2:58p, 2/26/22
AG
https://m.47news.ru/articles/208119/

Gasprom exec found dead from apparent suicide.
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jabberwalkie09
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3:00p, 2/26/22
AG


Chatter on Twitter (can't find the tweet now) that Tu-22m was on the HF strategic net.
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74OA
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In reply to SPSAg05 • 3:00p, 2/26/22
AG
SPSAg05 said:
https://m.47news.ru/articles/208119/

Gasprom exec found dead from apparent suicide.
Jumped from a window or smeared himself with nerve agent?
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TRM
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3:00p, 2/26/22
AG
Take with a grain of salt.
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jabberwalkie09
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In reply to SPSAg05 • 3:01p, 2/26/22
AG
SPSAg05 said:
https://m.47news.ru/articles/208119/

Gasprom exec found dead from apparent suicide.

The tweet I saw about an hour ago was legit then.
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TRM
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3:05p, 2/26/22
AG
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TRM
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3:06p, 2/26/22
AG
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74OA
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3:07p, 2/26/22
AG
Very interesting take on the condition of the Russian invasion force.

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GMaster0
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3:18p, 2/26/22
The Ukes have made really effective use of social media to inspire; keeping information flowing on their government maintaining power and being ready to die in that preservation. I don't think this one is truly winnable for the Russians now that Ukes are all pissed and the rest of the world in support of them.

Who knows what Putin does going forward and what other cards are up his sleeve. But I don't think this ends with him maintaining power.
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74OA
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3:19p, 2/26/22
AG
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LostInLA07
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In reply to 74OA • 3:25p, 2/26/22
AG
Russia is going to end up as isolated as Iran and North Korea. I have to admit I didn't imagine Putin would do something like this.
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JobSecurity
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3:26p, 2/26/22
AG
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spadilly
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3:28p, 2/26/22
S
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jabberwalkie09
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In reply to 74OA • 3:29p, 2/26/22
AG
74OA said:
Very interesting take on the condition of the Russian invasion force.


This was a great read. Thanks for finding it.
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Jsimonds58
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In reply to spadilly • 3:31p, 2/26/22
AG
Yeah I think Russia has decided to stop ****ing around, it's going to get very ugly
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JobSecurity
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3:31p, 2/26/22
AG
I'm skeptical but it's out there by several people

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TRM
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3:31p, 2/26/22
AG
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jobu93
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In reply to 74OA • 3:32p, 2/26/22
AG
74OA said:
Very interesting take on the condition of the Russian invasion force.

Great read and makes sense of what seems to be happening.
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TRM
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3:34p, 2/26/22
AG
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TRM
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3:35p, 2/26/22
AG
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Psych
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3:35p, 2/26/22
AG
Does anyone have the live link?
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jabberwalkie09
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In reply to TRM • 3:36p, 2/26/22
AG
TRM said:

Follow on, this was geolocated.

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BaileyAg
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In reply to JobSecurity • 3:36p, 2/26/22
AG
JobSecurity said:
I'm skeptical but it's out there by several people



That would be incredible
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jabberwalkie09
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In reply to Jsimonds58 • 3:40p, 2/26/22
AG
Jsimonds58 said:
Yeah I think Russia has decided to stop ****ing around, it's going to get very ugly

CNN just said after break that Russians had struck the Kyiv dam. I'm pretty positive that's going to have some implications if it breaks.
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p_bubel
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3:40p, 2/26/22

Quote:
In retrospect the Kremlin's plan consisted of an airborne/airmobile/Spetsnaz descent on Kyiv whose mission was to establish an airhead in the capital and capture the Ukrainian government until relieved by mechanized forces racing in from the north. An airmobile assault was attempted at Gostomel to Kyiv's immediate north.

But things went badly wrong. The Russian battalion-sized airmobile force met stiff air defense and was immediately counterattacked by the Ukrainian mobile reserve. Unable to land follow-on forces, the paratroopers could not withstand heavy weapons and were scattered or wiped out. Equally serious for the Russians was the failure of their northern pincer to advance on schedule.

Desperate to "bag" the Ukrainian government, the Russians attempted a large scale airborne assault for Vasylkiv Airfield to the south of Kyiv to establish a blocking position to catch withdrawing units. But this failed, with 2 C-17 counterpart IL-76s loaded with paratroops destroyed, and with them, two infantry companies of the Kremlin's finest. Crucially the Russian mechanized elements trickling into Kyiv proved too weak to break through the city defense.

When it was clear Zelensky, and hence the Ukrainian government, could not be bagged and was quite capable of retreating in good order to fallback positions in the West, it was obvious that Putin could not conclude the campaign with the political time and the military forces at hand. At this, the diplomatic floodgates opened, with even China urging a diplomatic solution, and much of the world, scared to death of a third world war, timidly then more forcefully chiming in.

Ukraine has not won; not in the military sense. It has lost territory, suffered significant losses to soldier and civilian, endured massive property damage. But crucially it has not lost and that may be enough. Attention is now turning to the possible danger that may attend Putin's fall. While he appears to remain firmly in power, the ex-chekist cannot but be weakened by the massive failure of his gamble.

There is nothing else the Ukrainian winter war of 2022 resembles so much as a gigantic throw of the dice, so preposterous given the available forces that many, myself included, did not believe any rational man could undertake it. But perhaps Putin is not the ten foot colossus the media makes him out to be as much as an aging "man of force" presiding over an economically and demographically dwindling ex-Soviet haunted empire. In that he resembles another dictator, who the media likes to compare everyone to, that in dire straits launched a similar failed gamble in the Ardennes in 1944.

The crisis in Ukraine, while not over, is likely to evolve into a crisis in Russia. We shall soon see who is more to be feared: a Putin in Kyiv or a Putin raging in the bunker.
Link
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TRM
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3:41p, 2/26/22
AG

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aeroag14
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3:44p, 2/26/22
AG
Rumors of another IL76 downed tonight!!
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jabberwalkie09
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In reply to TRM • 3:45p, 2/26/22
AG
TRM said:


I'm skeptical of this image. I would have expected to see an IL-76 and substantially more parachutes.
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txags92
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In reply to TRM • 3:45p, 2/26/22
AG
TRM said:

Be a shame if all those parachutes got Swiss cheesed by residents newly armed with ak-47s.
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Red Pear Realty
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In reply to aeroag14 • 3:46p, 2/26/22
Sponsor
AG
aeroag14 said:
Rumors of another IL76 downed tonight!!


Sponsor Message: We Split Commissions. Full Service Agents in Austin, Bryan-College Station, Dallas-Fort Worth, Houston and San Antonio. Red Pear Realty
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74OA
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In reply to jabberwalkie09 • 3:47p, 2/26/22
AG
jabberwalkie09 said:
TRM said:


I'm skeptical of this image. I would have expected to see an IL-76 and substantially more parachutes.
Yeah, a cluster of parachute-******ed munitions jump to mind. But, who really knows?

P.S. What a stupid auto-edit of a perfectly acceptable use of the word "re tarded".
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JobSecurity
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3:47p, 2/26/22
AG
Looks really similar to some other pics that turned out to be anti air. If there are really just 8 guys dropping in they would be taken out immediately
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BTHOtrolls
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In reply to JobSecurity • 3:48p, 2/26/22
AG
JobSecurity said:
Looks really similar to some other pics that turned out to be anti air. If there are really just 8 guys dropping in they would be taken out immediately


This is a Russian media outlet. The Twitter bio request users to pay a subscription to the news service in Rubles.
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AggieBucksJB
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In reply to AggieBucksJB • 3:49p, 2/26/22
AG
AggieBucksJB said:
Waffledynamics said:
You can hear fierce fighting on this livestream right as I post this.

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