***Russian - Ukraine War Tactical and Strategic Updates*** [Warning on OP]

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Michael Cera Palin
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In reply to richardag • 9:20a, 2/26/22
AG
richardag said:
Kenneth_2003 said:
I'm no adept student of the matter, but I never figured Putin too be an inept tactician.
He was KGB not military and who knows how he surrounded himself with his current military leaders.

I also think Putin legitimately believes the former USSR states want to "get the gang back together" in the same way he does, and he didn't expect the entire populace of Ukraine to unite and fight back like this. My guess is nobody else in the room had the balls to tell him he was wrong either.
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aginresearch
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In reply to ABATTBQ11 • 9:23a, 2/26/22
AG
I think you are exactly right. Russian forces seem to be running out of supplies all over Ukraine. I've got a feeling a lot of those forces will never see resupply because the Ukrainians are blowing up their supply lines as we speak.

There are people here who just think the Russians are holding back all their best units and are just slow in supplying their front line units right now. I don't think that is actually true at all. I think we're seeing the best the Russians have and they suck at logistics.

Now with Russia being kicked out of SWIFT imminent they are going to have a hard time sustaining this war economically. I figured Russia would be eventually bled dry both in military man power and economically. However, I never thought it would happen this fast. We'll see what happens over the next 72 hours but as of now I don't believe this has gone the way Putin figured it would.
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Robk
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In reply to GarryowenAg • 9:25a, 2/26/22
GarryowenAg said:
Robk said:
PWestAg18 said:
JobSecurity said:

Has anyone seen more confirmation of this? I feel like this is REALLY big news but haven't seen anything besides this one tweet.
I think is premature and comes from Cyprus and Hungrary saying they are now good with it. We will see if Germany backs out now that those two countries are not providing cover.
Germany and France backed out last night.
Thanks missed that, but what I was expecting out of Germany.
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hunter2012
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In reply to FTAG 2000 • 9:26a, 2/26/22
AG
AG 2000' said:
Eliminatus said:
jabberwalkie09 said:


Out-****ing-standing Ukrainians!


That's a T72.

One thing just clicked in my head.

I haven't seen any ERA on any Russian vehicles yet in Ukraine. Credence that these are NOT first line units?

(Explosive Reactive Armor, brick shape layerings used to defeat shape charges. Russia absolutely has it and I have no idea why these tanks didn't have it.)

Starting to think he sent in all his old armor first to take the brunt of the defenses (anti-tank weaponry), then will send in the new stuff when Ukraine anti-tank defenses are exhausted.
The 3 things that might decide this war.

First, who will run out first, Russian Armor or Ukrainian Anti-Armor?
Second, can the Ukrainians keep the airspace contested?
Third, do Russian conscripts have the fortitude to have a rat war in the cities? Because the Ukes seem to be readying for attrition and I don't see their morale falling from afar.
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Ag8556
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9:27a, 2/26/22
AG
I expect the fighting will continue until Putin reaches the point of declaring victory by annexing the eastern provinces of Ukraine to include the northern land bridge to Crimea. His hope of easily gobbling up the entire country with minimal expense seems to have evaporated.

I think we will see a smaller Ukraine survive and that we will punish Russia with long term economic sanctions and isolation. It will be interesting to see if the EU and NATO accept Ukraine membership after this is all over.

The Germans specifically, and the rest of Europe generally, need to rapidly expand their ability to import LNG to eliminate the need to import Russian natural gas.
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BD88
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9:29a, 2/26/22
AG
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aginresearch
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In reply to hunter2012 • 9:30a, 2/26/22
AG
The Ukrainians have a virtually unlimited supply of anti-armor and anti-air equipment. That is what NATO is supplying to them. As long as the supply line via the Polish border is kept open they'll never run out of weapons.

The Russians have a finite number of armored vehicles and have been reduced to a pariah state by the world. They will run out first.
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GAC06
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9:32a, 2/26/22
AG


More seemingly abandoned Russian equipment
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YouBet
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In reply to GarryowenAg • 9:33a, 2/26/22
AG
GarryowenAg said:
Robk said:
PWestAg18 said:
JobSecurity said:

Has anyone seen more confirmation of this? I feel like this is REALLY big news but haven't seen anything besides this one tweet.
I think is premature and comes from Cyprus and Hungrary saying they are now good with it. We will see if Germany backs out now that those two countries are not providing cover.
Germany and France backed out last night.
You have a source? Not seeing this.
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GAC06
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9:34a, 2/26/22
AG


Fuel truck meets Molotov cocktail.
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aggielostinETX
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9:34a, 2/26/22
AG
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aggielostinETX
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In reply to GAC06 • 9:35a, 2/26/22
AG
GAC06 said:


More seemingly abandoned Russian equipment


Guess they outkicked their coverage
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TriAg2010
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In reply to Fitch • 9:37a, 2/26/22
AG
Fitch said:
Kenneth_2003 said:
If Russia is locked out of Swift, they're proper hosed economically yes? International trade is essentially done? Can any amount of internal propaganda sustain another narrative?


That's my understanding. But it is a double edged sword for every European country that's still taking Russian natural gas and energy. With no basis to pay other than IOU's they'll basically be cutting off those lines. For a country like Germany, who was importing 40% of their gas from Russia, that's not easily replaced and for an indefinite period.

Someone correct me if that's wrong.


In the words of Jim Carter, Germany can put on a ****ing sweater.
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TriAg2010
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In reply to Not a Bot • 9:40a, 2/26/22
AG
Captain Positivity said:
I don't think Russia expects at this point to have any sort of normal relationship with Europe moving forward, at least for now.

Russia has been telling their media to not even use the word "war" in their news coverage. Russia is also taking steps to block social media in country. They need internal support for this war for it to continue.

They've been telling their population the Ukrainian government are Nazis and are killing ethnic Russians.

Now they create a false flag with a chemical weapons attack, show bodies of dead Russians, and the Russian populous has no other alternative to consider.


Agree that Russia is basically waiving away a decade or more of normal relations with Europe. I think Russia's hope going in was that it would be such a short conflict Europe wouldn't have the stomach for biting and mutually detrimental sanctions, but if this starts drawing, then Europe will act.
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10thYrSr
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9:41a, 2/26/22
Few of these videos are showing me people who have a will to fight one another.
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GAC06
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In reply to 10thYrSr • 9:42a, 2/26/22
AG
10thYrSr said:
Few of these videos are showing me people who have a will to fight one another.


What? There is a ****load of intense fighting. Hopefully the Russian morale is eroding but what a strange take.
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johnrth
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9:42a, 2/26/22
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BTHOB-98
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In reply to johnrth • 9:46a, 2/26/22
johnrth said:


Where would they go?
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Ag87H2O
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In reply to johnrth • 9:46a, 2/26/22
AG
johnrth said:
This seems like a very smart move. Based on the apparent lack of discipline, morale, and will to fight the Ukranians once cornered or captureed, there is no telling how many Russian soldiers might jump all over this opportunity once their equipment starts to fail, at least the ones without family back home. If nothing else it plants the seeds of doubt in their minds that things are going badly and that there is a way out. It's certainly doesn't hurt.
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GAC06
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9:47a, 2/26/22
AG


Germany coming around? Hopefully "RPG" is just an inaccurate term for anti tank missiles
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Ulysses90
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In reply to BD88 • 9:47a, 2/26/22
AG
BD88 said:
The soldiers manning those abandoned vehicles went somewhere because they are not laying on the ground around the vehicles. They may have been taken captive by the Ukrainians or they may be trying to evade capture and return to friendly lines.

Since the Russians don't seem to have many secured areas, in or out of the cities, there seems to be a good chance that they are trying to make back to the Russian border. This is humiliating to Russia and probably infuriates Putin. In past wars, Russians retreating from the enemy didn't get a lot of sympathy from their chain of command.

Punishment for deserters has historically been conducted in a public setting by the Russian military to make an example of them. Punishing retreating or deserting Russians, many of whom see to be surprised that they are actually participating in an invasion, is going to be very unpopular among the Russian public since they are only finding out bits an pieces of what's going on in Ukraine from the Putin regime.

The deserted convoys are a sign that Putin's military force is coming apart and as news filters back to the Russian public his support is going to drop further. The looming question for the Russian public is, "How come we are more afraid of Putin than our Ukrainian civilian brothers and sisters?
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TRM
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In reply to FTAG 2000 • 9:47a, 2/26/22
AG
AG 2000' said:
Eliminatus said:
jabberwalkie09 said:


Out-****ing-standing Ukrainians!


That's a T72.

One thing just clicked in my head.

I haven't seen any ERA on any Russian vehicles yet in Ukraine. Credence that these are NOT first line units?

(Explosive Reactive Armor, brick shape layerings used to defeat shape charges. Russia absolutely has it and I have no idea why these tanks didn't have it.)

Starting to think he sent in all his old armor first to take the brunt of the defenses (anti-tank weaponry), then will send in the new stuff when Ukraine anti-tank defenses are exhausted.
But those 200+ paratroopers that got shot down in the military transports are elite, so why send them in without having top end material?
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AgsMyDude
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In reply to hunter2012 • 9:48a, 2/26/22
AG
hunter2012 said:
AG 2000' said:
Eliminatus said:
jabberwalkie09 said:


Out-****ing-standing Ukrainians!


That's a T72.

One thing just clicked in my head.

I haven't seen any ERA on any Russian vehicles yet in Ukraine. Credence that these are NOT first line units?

(Explosive Reactive Armor, brick shape layerings used to defeat shape charges. Russia absolutely has it and I have no idea why these tanks didn't have it.)

Starting to think he sent in all his old armor first to take the brunt of the defenses (anti-tank weaponry), then will send in the new stuff when Ukraine anti-tank defenses are exhausted.
The 3 things that might decide this war.

First, who will run out first, Russian Armor or Ukrainian Anti-Armor?
Second, can the Ukrainians keep the airspace contested?
Third, do Russian conscripts have the fortitude to have a rat war in the cities? Because the Ukes seem to be readying for attrition and I don't see their morale falling from afar.


On #3 - even if Russia wins the Ukes are going to be a giant PITA until they take it back
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FTAco07
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9:49a, 2/26/22
AG
I saw something from a Russian abroad right after the war started, not sure if it was on Twitter or this thread, but the gist was exactly this. Offer all Russian soldiers who defect citizenship to an EU country and the Russian army would be cut in half without firing a shot.

Obviously a bit in jest, but interesting insight in to
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htownag10
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9:50a, 2/26/22
AG
Intense fighting just outside the Kyiv

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Rockdoc
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9:51a, 2/26/22
AG
If they defect, they better not have any family back in Russia.
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oneeyedag
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9:51a, 2/26/22
What is Putin up to here?

Makes little sense to me, the big bad bully with the "alleged" superpower seems to be toying with Ukraine.

Using a ragtag force of soldiers, incompetent logistics, outdated surplus, not owning the air and night. Im a little suspicious of putins actions.

If Rubio is correct, and I think he is and Putin really is out of his mind. I would suspect Putin gets desperate and tries to save face by protecting his superpowers reputation, and goes balls out at some point.



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BD88
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9:54a, 2/26/22
AG




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Duck Sausage
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9:55a, 2/26/22
AG
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AgsMyDude
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9:56a, 2/26/22
AG
Read some rumors on Reddit that the Chechnyan stuff is all propaganda and they had regular citizens dressed up.

Consider the source but interesting


Quote:
As for the Kadyrovites, it's not true that they are sent here 14:20 They inspire "fear" 14:20 Today at 3 o'clock in the morning they gathered all the state officials. employees and not only, security guards, even those who have no relation in this area. They dressed us, gave us weapons, removed the appeal, then went home 14.22 Today at 3 o'clock in the morning... where did the info come from? 14:29 I am Chechen 14:30 All relatives are there 14.31

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Who?mikejones!
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9:56a, 2/26/22
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aezmvp
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9:58a, 2/26/22
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MouthBQ98
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9:59a, 2/26/22
AG
Battle of the bulge. Overextended on the first push and didn't have the logistics prepared to sustain.

Same with the drive to Moscow.

And then Stalingrad.

Can't overextend. Once out of fuel, the best units become plain old infantry.
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GAC06
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In reply to Who?mikejones! • 10:00a, 2/26/22
AG
Yikes. Crispy Russians if you follow those links. I'm rooting for Ukraine but still feel bad for them
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SidetrackAg
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In reply to htownag10 • 10:01a, 2/26/22
AG
htownag10 said:
Intense fighting just outside the Kyiv



Straight up BALLS walking and laughing so calm in that situation
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