***Russian - Ukraine War Tactical and Strategic Updates*** [Warning on OP]

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ABATTBQ11
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Eliminatus said:

Captain Positivity said:

Fox guy tonight said they still have operational s-300s, somehow.
Yup, definitely looks like one. Never actually seen one fire till I just looked it up.

And the smart thing to do was to keep them moving and ONLY take selective fire at high value targets or singles. These things are big and not replaceable as of now for Ukraine I don't think so I imagine they are treating them with extra care.


Mentioned this earlier. They're probably moving them after each shot and being judicious about when they're turned on and exposed. Basically employing sniper tactics with a long range SAM system.
GarryowenAg
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Ags4DaWin said:

Interesting


I wonder how effective that strategy would be.

1) Let the armor roll in and pass an outside line of forces.
2) Put up enough resistance to force them to suck their fuel dry as they advance tkward the inside line
3) use the outside line to destroy the refuelers and supply lines rendering the now fuelless tanks useless.

Fuel issues severely hurt the German Panzers in WW2 towards the end and those tanks had to be abandoned in droves rendering them useless.

A similar move here could be beneficial...

All the more reason for Zelensky to say "**** ur talks".

Part of me thinks that Putin stating he is willing to talk is a means to give his armies a lull in action and time to resupply, shore up supply lines, and consolidate for a bigger and more concentrated push toward the center.
My thoughts (after several whisky drinks)
1) keep the outer cordon intact to allow for follow-on soft targets to destroy. Interior cordon will incapacitate the lead heavies. They'll also be able to resupply quicker than the outer folks.
2) this is a typical battle plan if you have adequate reserves to bolsters positions that are weakening. Keep the fighters engage to expend all fuel and munitions which will require a withdrawal.
3) what I would do with limited commodities. BUT I would make sure to have constant comms with my interior command elements to ensure the heavies are being eliminated.

Logistics WILL play a roll in the outcome of this war. Light infantry carries 5-7 days of supply; heavy units carry 1-3 days worth of supplies EXCEPT for fuel. Fuel runs out in 12-24hrs depends on amount of ops. After that, you're ****ed. Watch and see. I had expectations Ukraine falls with 72 hrs, but I'm holding my breath now and counting down the hours until the 72nd hour passes.
GAC06
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jabberwalkie09 said:

Captain Positivity said:

Interesting they have Iglas. Those are the Russian version of the Stinger.

I'm wondering if it was a captured weapon and the jet happened to be a target of opportunity. Imagine the irony if it had actually connected.


They have lots of former Soviet stuff including various versions of manpads
Eliminatus
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Everything seems to be fairly quiet in Kiev right now as the dawn breaks over Maiden Square.

Those plucky *******s held when most thought they would fall.

If this isn't the David vs. Goliath, good vs bad, pepperoni vs pineapple pizza fight of our times, I don't know what else would be.

Ukraine ****ing deserves to survive as a nation. Got my red blooded, brochacho, Texan ass all fired up.






To make this relevant here, I observed a while back the lack of widespread forward fortifications and prep by the Kiev defenders. In my mind a city under siege harkens back to Stalingrad level of fighting. Last night, aside from very localized intense fighting prep, it didn't look like it was needed. Ukes proved me wrong again. Moving forward, who knows what will happen, but damnit, I am starting to believe.

You can't quantify fighting spirit and last night proved that again. Also still questioning Russian methods and overall national effort though.
LMCane
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ABATTBQ11 said:

Eliminatus said:

Captain Positivity said:

Fox guy tonight said they still have operational s-300s, somehow.
Yup, definitely looks like one. Never actually seen one fire till I just looked it up.

And the smart thing to do was to keep them moving and ONLY take selective fire at high value targets or singles. These things are big and not replaceable as of now for Ukraine I don't think so I imagine they are treating them with extra care.


Mentioned this earlier. They're probably moving them after each shot and being judicious about when they're turned on and exposed. Basically employing sniper tactics with a long range SAM system.
reveals alot about the ability of the Russians to conduct modern warfare- none of which are good for Russia.

think about how large that system is, and the Russians can't track it moving with continuous UAS/UAV, satellites or recon planes
GAC06
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So now you've switched from "the Ukrainians are incompetent" to "the Russians are incompetent"?
LMCane
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Eliminatus said:

Everything seems to be fairly quiet in Kiev right now as the dawn breaks over Maiden Square.

Those plucky *******s held when most thought they would fall.

If this isn't the David vs. Goliath, good vs bad, pepperoni vs pineapple pizza fight of our times, I don't know what else would be.

Ukraine ****ing deserves to survive as a nation. Got my red blooded, brochacho, Texan ass all fired up.






To make this relevant here, I observed a while back the lack of widespread forward fortifications and prep by the Kiev defenders. In my mind a city under siege harkens back to Stalingrad level of fighting. Last night, aside from very localized intense fighting prep, it didn't look like it was needed. Ukes proved me wrong again. Moving forward, who knows what will happen, but damnit, I am starting to believe.

You can't quantify fighting spirit and last night proved that again. Also still questioning Russian methods and overall national effort though.
still don't understand why the Ukes haven't taken every 18 wheeler in Eastern Europe and blocked all the highways leading into Kyiv

let the Russians try to figure out how to push an armored brigade through hundreds of big rigs abandoned on the roadways.

then put guys with Javelin on the flanks
TRM
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jabberwalkie09
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TRM
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jabberwalkie09
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LMCane
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jabberwalkie09 said:




Ukraine was desperate for "Iron Dome" manufactured by Rafael but because the Russians are the 800 pound gorilla in the Middle East they haven't been sold to Kyiv.

would have done wonders for their anti-air and anti-missile defensive capabilities
jabberwalkie09
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Not a Bot
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GAC06 said:

So now you've switched from "the Ukrainians are incompetent" to "the Russians are incompetent"?


Russia not being able to take out 80s-era SAM sites is pretty telling of their capabilities.
Kenneth_2003
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LMCane said:

Eliminatus said:

Everything seems to be fairly quiet in Kiev right now as the dawn breaks over Maiden Square.

Those plucky *******s held when most thought they would fall.

If this isn't the David vs. Goliath, good vs bad, pepperoni vs pineapple pizza fight of our times, I don't know what else would be.

Ukraine ****ing deserves to survive as a nation. Got my red blooded, brochacho, Texan ass all fired up.






To make this relevant here, I observed a while back the lack of widespread forward fortifications and prep by the Kiev defenders. In my mind a city under siege harkens back to Stalingrad level of fighting. Last night, aside from very localized intense fighting prep, it didn't look like it was needed. Ukes proved me wrong again. Moving forward, who knows what will happen, but damnit, I am starting to believe.

You can't quantify fighting spirit and last night proved that again. Also still questioning Russian methods and overall national effort though.
still don't understand why the Ukes haven't taken every 18 wheeler in Eastern Europe and blocked all the highways leading into Kyiv

let the Russians try to figure out how to push an armored brigade through hundreds of big rigs abandoned on the roadways.

then put guys with Javelin on the flanks


Slowing them down substantially reduces logistics and improves supply lines. Looks like the Russians are doing just a fine job of over extending themselves.
jabberwalkie09
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Captain Positivity said:

GAC06 said:

So now you've switched from "the Ukrainians are incompetent" to "the Russians are incompetent"?


Russia not being able to take out 80s-era SAM sites is pretty telling of their capabilities.

If the Ukrainians are in fact moving the units around regularly and possibly alternating when units are active, that can be attributed to their survival so far.

But yes, this is surprising. What's also been surprising is that Russia has tried to to not one but two paratroop insertions in opposed air space. I also feel like we just haven't seen much of Russia's fixed wing flying in theater. We've seen plenty of their rotary wing assets flying around though.
OKC~Ag
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Nato/European Union and US need to decree some zone of No Fly zone over Ukraine...

Also make decree of Zilensky must not be molested as a head of nation, European Union need to state this clearly to Russia and declare publically.

No fly zone must happen if Europen Union-EU, want any hopes of Ukraine being viable...whether EU and US have an appetite (tip toe into wider war) is another question...
LMCane
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jabberwalkie09 said:

Captain Positivity said:

GAC06 said:

So now you've switched from "the Ukrainians are incompetent" to "the Russians are incompetent"?


Russia not being able to take out 80s-era SAM sites is pretty telling of their capabilities.

If the Ukrainians are in fact moving the units around regularly and possibly alternating when units are active, that can be attributed to their survival so far.

But yes, this is surprising. What's also been surprising is that Russia has tried to to not one but two paratroop insertions in opposed air space. I also feel like we just haven't seen much of Russia's fixed wing flying in theater. We've seen plenty of their rotary wing assets flying around though.

that is the biggest concern moving forward.

when looking at how Putin won in Chechnya and Dagestan, it was through massive destruction and targeting his enemies personally. And taking them out one by one.

if he starts to get stymied in Kyiv, he will simply increase the pressure through air attacks and trying to go after the leadership of Ukraine.

He still has reserves which not been committed yet within Belarus, and can call up his strategic reserve forces. Supposedly Russia has 1,000,000 in their overall reserves. obviously those forces will be older and less lethal than his active duty forces which have been committed to the MoA/CFA right now.
LMCane
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OKC~Ag said:

Nato/European Union and US need to decree some zone of No Fly zone over Ukraine...

Also make decree of Zilensky must not be molested as a head of nation, European Union need to state this clearly to Russia and declare publically.

No fly zone must happen if Europen Union-EU, want any hopes of Ukraine being viable...whether EU and US have an appetite (tip toe into wider war) is another question...

that would be a direct war with Russia.

how would any NATO country begin to construct a "no fly zone" when there are hundreds of aircraft both fixed wing and rotary currently flying every hour?

the United States sends in hundreds of F-35 and F-15 and shoots down every Russian plane in the air?
TheCougarHunter
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I can almost guarantee we have at least a dozen fighters on combat air patrol over nato skies ready if Russian aircraft stray too far west. Who knows what might happen if the Russians start bombing a civilian city.
jabberwalkie09
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OKC~Ag said:

Nato/European Union and US need to decree some zone of No Fly zone over Ukraine...


To the best of my knowledge, no-fly zones aren't just decreed into effect. They're usually agreed upon by relevant parties. While I understand the idea of what you're going for here in trying to protect the Ukrainians from the Russian air power, I don't see Russia sitting down with us or any NATO member let alone Zelensky for such a meeting.
LMCane
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TRM said:


strange that on Twitter that video is hidden for sensitive content

if the Russians continue to take losses, odds are that Russia will start to launch denial of service attacks against media platforms hosting these types of videos
Not a Bot
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This isn't any of those situations, though. This is very different.

Attacking Ukraine with the same level of brutality as those other situations isn't going to fly inside of Russia. Even though the general public in Russia is being lied to, the upper level brass knows exactly what's going on and what the false flags are.

Kyiv is a very important place to Russians and Ukrainian people. It's one of the first, if not the first established locations of the Rus' people putting down roots and forming a city of their own.

The tweet from the communist party MP was pretty telling. Very few in Russia want to see the type of destruction that they saw in Grozny.
jabberwalkie09
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LMCane
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GarryowenAg said:

We touched on sustainment earlier today, but I want to re-engage on the topic for the next 12-24hrs. FLOT (Forward Line Of Troops) has est 4-6 fronts (depending on the intel we receive) whether it be thru an air bridge via paratroopers, or spearhead into the interior of the country.
Russia is known to have subpar logistics ops, so it's completely believable that armored units are stopping to scavenge for food and fuel (CL I, III for you army folk). My hope is the Ukes let the heavies pass and they hit the soft targets to disable the heavy mech units over time.
If reports hold true, we will continue to see reports of chronic issues of resupply (primarily food and fuel), and munitions will begin to run low, or black. Expect to see more forces thrown in to bolster the Russian progress.
It's going to get sporty regardless. GOOD HUNTING, UKES!
in the pre-war buildup from satellite photos you could see fuel bowsers being staged in fields. just like in Dien Bien Phu in 1954, the goal of the defenders is to draw in an advance along an axis, halt the advance, and then surround the attacking force by cutting it off with no ability to egress.
LMCane
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Engine10 said:

A busted ass supply chain turns their mechanized advantage into scrap pretty fast. I'm for it
earlier reports from the Ukes were that they are telling their citizens to spike fuel supplies with sugar to sabotage the Russian mechanized forces.
jabberwalkie09
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Guess the Russians just gave up on this objective.
GAC06
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If they have the bridge it may make perfect sense to bypass the city
jabberwalkie09
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GAC06 said:

If they have the bridge it may make perfect sense to bypass the city

If this is the bridge I'm thinking of, last report from yesterday was that the Ukrainians had retaken if from the Russians who had retreated to the east side of the river. Either the Russians retook it on their fourth try or they said **** if we will go the long way around to Kyiv. And they're already late to that party.
jabberwalkie09
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Two other possibilities: The Ukrainians decided to blow the bridge; bridge was hit and wrecked/destroyed in a bombardment over night.
GAC06
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Certainly a long way to Kiev from there. I'd like to know their objective there. I certainly like the idea of Ukrainians throwing them back but the unscathed city center shows there wasn't a battle there.
jabberwalkie09
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GAC06 said:

Certainly a long way to Kiev from there. I'd like to know their objective there. I certainly like the idea of Ukrainians throwing them back but the unscathed city center shows there wasn't a battle there.

One of the retired flag officers CNN had mentioned two possibilities yesterday: secure and cross the bridge for a route to Kyiv; cross and secure the bridge to isolate the southwest coast line. Neither of those sound particularly good to me, but without looking at a map I want to say it also would allow for travel to Odessa by land.
jabberwalkie09
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I'm not sold on this being Kharkiv. Last few videos we had from Kharkiv had snow on the ground.
LMCane
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jabberwalkie09 said:



I'm not sold on this being Kharkiv. Last few videos we had from Kharkiv had snow on the ground.
Jabber- is this the same MSTA battery that we had still pictures of about 12 hours ago or a different unit?

Ukes need to bring up local tractors and pull those artillery pieces away from the roadway
GAC06
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LMCane said:

jabberwalkie09 said:



Guess the Russians just gave up on this objective.
The Russian army has fought at Khorsun before-

the famous battle of the Khorsun/Cherkassy pocket in 1944

Escape of German Army from Ukraine


Korsun and Kherson are different cities
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