Unconfirmed reports of an ongoing Russian Airborne Operation in the Southern Ukrainian town of Uman' being supported by Airstrikes, Ukrainian Military Forces are moving in to Liquidate the Hostile Presence.
— OSINTdefender (@sentdefender) February 26, 2022
***Russian - Ukraine War Tactical and Strategic Updates*** [Warning on OP]
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Last: 30 min ago by 74OA
Russia's war against Ukraine, day three. Early morning here in Ukraine. Kyiv is standing. Enemy tanks were destroyed in the western part of the city. Sounds of gunfire and street fighting. President Zelensky is in the capital. Brave Ukrainian heroes continue to defend their land
— Olga Tokariuk (@olgatokariuk) February 26, 2022
Question.
What are the odds Putin stops? Isn't the damage of stopping way worse than getting your ass kicked but still "winning"?
What are the odds Putin stops? Isn't the damage of stopping way worse than getting your ass kicked but still "winning"?
jabberwalkie09 said:Russia's war against Ukraine, day three. Early morning here in Ukraine. Kyiv is standing. Enemy tanks were destroyed in the western part of the city. Sounds of gunfire and street fighting. President Zelensky is in the capital. Brave Ukrainian heroes continue to defend their land
— Olga Tokariuk (@olgatokariuk) February 26, 2022
Love it!
Now that a swift Russian takeover does not appear likely, my next worry is that this becomes like Syria with Putin following Assad's example in never giving up until years later the whole country is bullet-ridden and torn apart. Not saying this will happen, just my worry.
Yep. Thats my view as well.Quote:
One point. Russia will not concede defeat. This is going to escalate, and we have no idea how far. They aren't simply going to say "oops" and retreat. Where will that take us?
When you have people threatening to crash the gd international space station, its not a good sign.
My biggest concern is all out cyber-warfare on the west in response to sanctions.
This **** is gonna get out of hand.
I'm not optimistic.
Premium said:
Question.
What are the odds Putin stops? Isn't the damage of stopping way worse than getting your ass kicked but still "winning"?
Sadly for Ukraine, he won't. Not of his own fruition. No way he tucks tail and limps home kicking his wounds in defeat.
The Ukrainians are going to HAVE to draw him into a prolonged guerrilla quagmire until his body counts can't be hidden and the international community pressure breaks Russia.
My biggest fear is what happens when the world's largest nuclear weapons holder feels cornered?
They've had to before, Afghanistan comes to mind. Without a doubt Putin has painted himself into a corner if he can't pull this off, well frankly, yesterday. The question is if he can get out of the corner, before he can't get out of the corner. Doesn't look like he got out of the corner overnight, and depending on how true the scavenging stories are about the tankers, fuel, and food, he may already be stuck in that corner.
He got into this thinking he couldn't lose, now another bad day or two and he may very well be losing whether he wants to admit it or not. If he's not actively seeking a way out by the end of the day Monday, then his strategic stupidity will near Hitler-esq levels. Either way, he's damaged the Russian's ability to project power significantly for generations with just how badly this has gone so far. He'll still have nukes and I'm sure if anyone wants to invade Russia, it won't go well, but as far as a front line superpower any longer, after this fiasco, uh no.....
He got into this thinking he couldn't lose, now another bad day or two and he may very well be losing whether he wants to admit it or not. If he's not actively seeking a way out by the end of the day Monday, then his strategic stupidity will near Hitler-esq levels. Either way, he's damaged the Russian's ability to project power significantly for generations with just how badly this has gone so far. He'll still have nukes and I'm sure if anyone wants to invade Russia, it won't go well, but as far as a front line superpower any longer, after this fiasco, uh no.....
Premium said:
Question.
What are the odds Putin stops? Isn't the damage of stopping way worse than getting your ass kicked but still "winning"?
I think Putin stopping is unlikely. The Russians have invested so much and have gotten so little. I mean, they've had to try and take the bridge across the Dneiper in Kherson three, possibly four if they tried again over night and failed, times. Kharkiv appears to still stand and actively resisting Russians. Much of the central part of the country remains under Ukrainian control.
What's not clear right now is what the status is of Mariupol and the Donbas region. Last report I saw claimed that the Donbas region had returned to the same lines pre-invasion. Mariupol was supposed to have had a amphibious assault landing. What's going on in those areas is not particularly clear.
Stat Monitor Repairman said:Yep. Thats my view as well.Quote:
One point. Russia will not concede defeat. This is going to escalate, and we have no idea how far. They aren't simply going to say "oops" and retreat. Where will that take us?
When you have people threatening to crash the gd international space station, its not a good sign.
My biggest concern is all cyber-warfare on the west in response to sanctions.
This **** is gonna get out of hand.
I'm not optimistic.
And that's the type of rhetoric that moved me from "I feel bad for Ukraine and wish we could do more but there's not a winning way to get involved" to "I hope at dawn we see rows and rows of destroyed Russian mech and a bunch of US f-35s suspiciously landing at various air fields." For me it went from this sucks but isn't our fight to putin is a rabid dog that needs to be put down.
Putin's own folks may stop Putin if this continues on its current track…
BlackGoldAg2011 said:Stat Monitor Repairman said:Yep. Thats my view as well.Quote:
One point. Russia will not concede defeat. This is going to escalate, and we have no idea how far. They aren't simply going to say "oops" and retreat. Where will that take us?
When you have people threatening to crash the gd international space station, its not a good sign.
My biggest concern is all cyber-warfare on the west in response to sanctions.
This **** is gonna get out of hand.
I'm not optimistic.
And that's the type of rhetoric that moved me from "I feel bad for Ukraine and wish we could do more but there's not a winning way to get involved" to "I hope at dawn we see rows and rows of destroyed Russian mech and a bunch of US f-35s suspiciously landing at various air fields." For me it went from this sucks but isn't our fight to putin is a rabid dog that needs to be put down.
And the wildcard being the Russian people. We all know how they treat dissident. Hasn't stopped them from speaking up so far. They were chanting, in Ukrainian, tonight in Moscow.
I wonder about that as well.FireAg said:
Putin's own folks may stop Putin if this continues on its current track…
Elon Musk just responded to the Russians that SpaceX would step in to fill their spot (re: their implied threat to crash it)
One thing I think people are underestimating is the odds of regime change in Russia. Putin's support is cracking.
+ the protests. + the war isn't going well and frankly looks unwinnable for Russia because Ukrainians will have an insurgency and will never accept a Moscow government. + the sanctions on businesses and oligarchs are huge.
This does not seem like Putin has control of the situation.
This would not be the first time Russia had regime change as a result of an unpopular war. I bet the Russian military's morale is low and dropping. If the offensive stalls - which it has on most fronts - I'm not sure I see a way for Russia to achieve their goals.
Russian lawmaker Mikhail Matveyev, who voted to recognize Donetsk and Luhansk, calls for an immediate end to attack on Ukraine: I voted "for Russia to become a shield ... not for Kyiv to be bombed"
— BNO News (@BNONews) February 26, 2022
+ the protests. + the war isn't going well and frankly looks unwinnable for Russia because Ukrainians will have an insurgency and will never accept a Moscow government. + the sanctions on businesses and oligarchs are huge.
This does not seem like Putin has control of the situation.
This would not be the first time Russia had regime change as a result of an unpopular war. I bet the Russian military's morale is low and dropping. If the offensive stalls - which it has on most fronts - I'm not sure I see a way for Russia to achieve their goals.
I feel like if we've got anyone on the ground, in Ukraine or in Russia, it's got to be CIA/NSA or mercenary contractors. No way it could be DoD. Far less plausible deniability with .mil guys.
FireAg said:
Putin's own folks may stop Putin if this continues on its current track…
Well, that wouldn't be Putin stopping Putin. That's going to take a political revolt or a military coup imo. I don't see Putin pulling the plug on this unless he is forcibly removed or beaten.
SidsBurnerAccount said:
Elon Musk just responded to the Russians that SpaceX would step in to fill their spot (re: their implied threat to crash it)
I don't know how many Russian big shots drive teslas but if there are many it would be epic if he pushed a software update that bricked their cars.
Edit: beaten to the punch regarding the Russian MP calling for an end to the invasion.
There are very few men in the world who we can say are destabilizing to the entire world by their very existence. Putin is undoubtedly one of them.BlackGoldAg2011 said:Stat Monitor Repairman said:Yep. Thats my view as well.Quote:
One point. Russia will not concede defeat. This is going to escalate, and we have no idea how far. They aren't simply going to say "oops" and retreat. Where will that take us?
When you have people threatening to crash the gd international space station, its not a good sign.
My biggest concern is all cyber-warfare on the west in response to sanctions.
This **** is gonna get out of hand.
I'm not optimistic.
And that's the type of rhetoric that moved me from "I feel bad for Ukraine and wish we could do more but there's not a winning way to get involved" to "I hope at dawn we see rows and rows of destroyed Russian mech and a bunch of US f-35s suspiciously landing at various air fields." For me it went from this sucks but isn't our fight to putin is a rabid dog that needs to be put down.
Thinking long term strategy, it may very well be the best time to go ahold and finish this fight once and for all. And that is not something I say lightly at all. But the world is a sick place with him at the helm and his downfall, no matter how it comes, may be worth pursuing. Count me in on the "he needs to go ahead and die" list.
Something that hasn't been mentioned much on here is that the Russian economy is facing significant inflation, worse than here. A lot of speculation that this war end his speech in particular the other night was about drumming up local support more than anything. When presidents are in crisis, they start wars.
If this war goes badly and the Russian people actually find out about it, he could be in some trouble.
If this war goes badly and the Russian people actually find out about it, he could be in some trouble.
I have to agree, Putin may not and probably will not pull out, however, if he's losing support from the people via protest and his own lawmakers, this may his end of the road, he may have tried to swallow a toad that is too big for his mouth…. Time to go ride horses everyday with his shirt offGordo14 said:
One thing I think people are underestimating is the odds of regime change in Russia. Putin's support is cracking.Russian lawmaker Mikhail Matveyev, who voted to recognize Donetsk and Luhansk, calls for an immediate end to attack on Ukraine: I voted "for Russia to become a shield ... not for Kyiv to be bombed"
— BNO News (@BNONews) February 26, 2022
+ the protests. + the war isn't going well and frankly looks unwinnable for Russia because Ukrainians will have an insurgency and will never accept a Moscow government. + the sanctions on businesses and oligarchs are huge.
This does not seem like Putin has control of the situation.
This would not be the first time Russia had regime change as a result of an unpopular war. I bet the Russian military's morale is low and dropping. If the offensive stalls - which it has on most fronts - I'm not sure I see a way for Russia to achieve their goals.
nm
Russian lawmaker Mikhail Matveyev, who voted to recognize Donetsk and Luhansk, calls for an immediate end to attack on Ukraine: I voted "for Russia to become a shield ... not for Kyiv to be bombed"
— BNO News (@BNONews) February 26, 2022
He gone.
Friend in eastern Hungary said they are expecting 5m refugees and Hungarian troops are being moved to the border with Ukraine.
This is gonna be a real mess for all of Europe.
This is gonna be a real mess for all of Europe.
SidsBurnerAccount said:
Elon Musk just responded to the Russians that SpaceX would step in to fill their spot (re: their implied threat to crash it)
We've seen that. But it begs a question... SpaceX can certainly, given some time, devise a manner to boost the orbit for strain keeping. BUT that assumes the intent of the tweet was just no more Soyuz flights. If that tweet was a threat to crash the thing... there's nothing SpaceX could do.
Oh and crashing the ISS would violate a treaty signed back in the early 60s that treats astronauts as ambassadors of earth and guarantees safe passage and recovery.
Like Russia gives a **** about treaties
Stat Monitor Repairman said:
Friend in eastern Hungary said they are expecting 5m refugees and Hungarian troops are being moved to the border with Ukraine.
This is gonna be a real mess for all of Europe.
No really. They share a culture for the most part. Just a matter of getting names.
You are still innocent until proven guilty. What's changed is what they do to innocent people.
Look closer at your sound card. Does it say "Sorny" or "Panaphonics" on it? Buying computers from a kangaroo in an alleyway will get you what you pay for.
Look closer at your sound card. Does it say "Sorny" or "Panaphonics" on it? Buying computers from a kangaroo in an alleyway will get you what you pay for.
Or drove them off cliffs.BlackGoldAg2011 said:SidsBurnerAccount said:
Elon Musk just responded to the Russians that SpaceX would step in to fill their spot (re: their implied threat to crash it)
I don't know how many Russian big shots drive teslas but if there are many it would be epic if he pushed a software update that bricked their cars.
"BREAKING: Japan is considering imposing sanctions on Belarus for its role in Ukraine war"
Looks like the sanctions may be expanding
Looks like the sanctions may be expanding
Important to emphasize that the Russian forces that are currently near Kyiv are likely SOF and VDV with light armored vehicles. Heavier Russian tank and motorized rifle units are headed towards Kyiv with artillery. It will be more difficult for Ukrainian forces to stop them.
— Rob Lee (@RALee85) February 26, 2022
Putin would have been better served joining us against china.
Zelensky to BidenKeegan99 said:BREAKING: In response to US request to evacuate Kyiv, Ukraine's Zelensky said he needed 'ammunition, not a ride'
— The Spectator Index (@spectatorindex) February 26, 2022
(Source: Associated Press)
https://www.archivesfoundation.org/documents/surrender-nuts-gen-anthony-mcauliffes-1944-christmas-message-troops/
Rob, VDV and SOF are top line troops trained for urban and airfield seizure operations. It will be more difficult once the armor arrives, but there are significant weaknesses of armor in the city. It all comes down to how well UAF prepares their defense now.
— Jeffrey Schmidt (@Schmidt12J) February 26, 2022
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