***Russian - Ukraine War Tactical and Strategic Updates*** [Warning on OP]

7,554,814 Views | 47734 Replies | Last: 13 hrs ago by 74OA
TRM
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GarryowenAg said:

HELP! OSINT Live Thread just ended. I need another link!!
https://twitter.com/i/spaces/1rmxPgbYBNXJN?s=20
GarryowenAg
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Eliminatus said:

amercer said:

Waffledynamics said:

I get a bad feeling that Kyiv is falling tonight.


The sun rises in an hour and a half.
There was definitely heavy fighting on the outskirts.

With the numbers reported being committed to the invasion in total, how spread out they are across the whole nation, the Ukes actually fighting hard.......can the Russians even take Kiev with what they had staged at dusk?

This is a huge, very dense city filled with millions and the Russians can't have more than low five digit numbers actively trying to take it against very stiff ( and growing) resistance.

We can say that Kiev may "fall" but what does that actually mean? Full Russian takeover and capitulation of Uke military? Based off of last night, I don't think that is happening in the next few hours. It looks like the Ukes bought themselves another dawn.

I've been thinking the same thing. Who gives a **** if they take the city center. They can relocate to a fortified sector of the city; est comms, send propaganda that they're still in the city, and Charlie Mike. **** some rusky ass with a counteroffensive.
GarryowenAg
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TRM said:

GarryowenAg said:

HELP! OSINT Live Thread just ended. I need another link!!
https://twitter.com/i/spaces/1rmxPgbYBNXJN?s=20
You're a Saint.
jabberwalkie09
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Waffledynamics said:

I get a bad feeling that Kyiv is falling tonight.

I'm actually feeling optimistic. All indications are that fighting is in the north and west part of the city. The people are actively, based on Twitter, reporting activity suspicious activity. The Russians are facing some decent resistance and when needed Ukrainians are destroying bridges to cut off avenues of access.

Sunrise is in about an hour and a half. I think they can hold.
akaggie05
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Waffledynamics said:

What the absolute hell, Putin?




I'm not up to speed on what's currently docked up there. We are extremely lucky to have the capability to use SpaceX vehicles to get our folks down now and not have to rely on Soyuz capsules.
SidsBurnerAccount
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rgag12 said:

YouBet said:

RONA Ag said:

At this point you hope that Ukraine's resolve is strong enough that even if their leadership structure is captured that they are willing to run an all out decentralized guerilla war
Shared this way early on but former US officials have already said we would supply and wage a proxy, guerrilla war in Ukraine against Russia.


No matter what happens, you can count on a LONG civil war after a new government is put in place and a chunk of the Russians leave.

I don't think Ukraine is going to be stable for many many years


Or perhaps Ukraine wins.
Pantera
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Is assassinating Putin a viable option, or is he so protected it would be impossible?
johnrth
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YouBet said:

Waffledynamics said:

What the absolute hell, Putin?


Putin approaching Glenn Close level of psycho ex.



He wants to see our space force
suburban cowboy
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Pantera said:

Is assassinating Putin a viable option, or is he so protected it would be impossible?


depends on who is doing the assassinating
jabberwalkie09
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Looks like internet availability is tanking. We may be SOL on OSINT frOm the ground soon
rgag12
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SidsBurnerAccount said:

rgag12 said:

YouBet said:

RONA Ag said:

At this point you hope that Ukraine's resolve is strong enough that even if their leadership structure is captured that they are willing to run an all out decentralized guerilla war
Shared this way early on but former US officials have already said we would supply and wage a proxy, guerrilla war in Ukraine against Russia.


No matter what happens, you can count on a LONG civil war after a new government is put in place and a chunk of the Russians leave.

I don't think Ukraine is going to be stable for many many years


Or perhaps Ukraine wins.


The Ukraine government? They are down 8 runs runs, bottom of the ninth, one out and nobody on base right now. It doesn't look good.

Their best bet is to develop a solid base in the west of Ukraine and wage a guerilla war for years against the puppet government.
PrestigeWorldwideAg12
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If everyone would just look away, does it matter who does it?
Engine10
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Starlink would be super handy for them right now
amercer
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Where is that Elon musk spaceX cloud internet when you need it. In ten years you won't be able to shut the internet down…
jobu93
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I didn't expect the barricades to hold one much less two vehicles. Now the wreckages fortify the barricade.

Much Respect to Ukraine.


jabberwalkie09
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This is my shocked face: -_-
SidsBurnerAccount
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rgag12 said:

SidsBurnerAccount said:

rgag12 said:

YouBet said:

RONA Ag said:

At this point you hope that Ukraine's resolve is strong enough that even if their leadership structure is captured that they are willing to run an all out decentralized guerilla war
Shared this way early on but former US officials have already said we would supply and wage a proxy, guerrilla war in Ukraine against Russia.


No matter what happens, you can count on a LONG civil war after a new government is put in place and a chunk of the Russians leave.

I don't think Ukraine is going to be stable for many many years


Or perhaps Ukraine wins.


The Ukraine government? They are down 8 runs runs, bottom of the ninth, one out and nobody on base right now. It doesn't look good.

Their best bet is to wage develop a solid base in the west of Ukraine and wage a guerilla war for years against the puppet government.


I disagree with your analysis completely. The Russian plan is failing in multiple ways and the Ukrainian position is growing stronger
TAMU1990
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YouBet said:

Waffledynamics said:

What the absolute hell, Putin?


Putin approaching Glenn Close level of psycho ex.
Moonraker lives!
GeeBee
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9 cameras

Charpie
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"Do you hear the people sing?
Signing the song of angry men."

Tonight watching the Russians move into Kiev have my heart swell for the people of Ukraine. They remind me of how I would hope Texans would react if something like this happened to us.

Thanks again you guys. This thread is awesome
YouBet
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Engine10 said:

Starlink would be super handy for them right now
He launched 15 more satellites today, btw. He has hundreds of those things up there already for anyone that has seen the graphic of that.
jabberwalkie09
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I know there's probably been air assets up since this started on Wednesday, probably more flights since the response force was activated, but it does seem like we/NATO are keeping quite a few tankers in the air.
Not a Bot
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Don't read too much into that. They've had multiple in person meetings with national security council folks over the last few days. Tomorrow they will be in two different locations so the schedule will have a remote call on it. Nothing burger.
jobu93
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SidsBurnerAccount said:

rgag12 said:

SidsBurnerAccount said:

rgag12 said:

YouBet said:

RONA Ag said:

At this point you hope that Ukraine's resolve is strong enough that even if their leadership structure is captured that they are willing to run an all out decentralized guerilla war
Shared this way early on but former US officials have already said we would supply and wage a proxy, guerrilla war in Ukraine against Russia.


No matter what happens, you can count on a LONG civil war after a new government is put in place and a chunk of the Russians leave.

I don't think Ukraine is going to be stable for many many years


Or perhaps Ukraine wins.


The Ukraine government? They are down 8 runs runs, bottom of the ninth, one out and nobody on base right now. It doesn't look good.

Their best bet is to wage develop a solid base in the west of Ukraine and wage a guerilla war for years against the puppet government.


I disagree with your analysis completely. The Russian plan is failing in multiple ways and the Ukrainian position is growing stronger
I think you're both right. The government, THIS government, is probably at it's sunset. I think the country still has a lease on life as it knows it without being a puppet.
Charpie
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SIAP
SidsBurnerAccount
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New pics of the Chechens the Russians are bringing in.
Not a Bot
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Shocked Ukrainian aircraft are even in the air at this point.

SidsBurnerAccount
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Quote:

I think you're both right. The government, THIS government, is probably at it's sunset. I think the country still has a lease on life as it knows it without being a puppet.
Why would the Zelensky government be at its sunset. Explain.
YouBet
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SidsBurnerAccount said:



New pics of the Chechens the Russians are bringing in.

Not really new. Was posted a while ago.

(My sense of time on this is now lost though.)
PrestigeWorldwideAg12
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SidsBurnerAccount said:



New pics of the Chechens the Russians are bringing in.

Was from yesterday
Not a Bot
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It's pretty clear they are facing overwhelming odds here. Russia is eventually going to take control of the major cities. It's going to be nasty, and Russia is going to lose way more assets than they thought they would. Z and his higher ups are going to be killed or captured, but he will be a martyr.
jobu93
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SidsBurnerAccount said:

Quote:

I think you're both right. The government, THIS government, is probably at it's sunset. I think the country still has a lease on life as it knows it without being a puppet.
Why would the Zelensky government be at its sunset. Explain.
I don't think Kiev doesn't fall

I don't think Zelensky leaves Kiev

He has buttressed a nation. He won't leave and he won't get captured IMO.
buzzardb267
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Some retired general on CNN must made a point that everyone is fixated on the size of the invading force. However, they are also fighting on several fronts and laying siege to several large cities. They had an amphibious landing in the south also. They may have missed on how many troops it would take to overrun the capitol. He pointed out that NYC has 50,000 police officers. It may take time of amass the manpower moving in from various directions to completely take the city. He also was amazed that they have not taken out the bridges around the city.
Ag In Ok
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jabberwalkie09 said:



I know there's probably been air assets up since this started on Wednesday, probably more flights since the response force was activated, but it does seem like we/NATO are keeping quite a few tankers in the air.


Is the Czech Republic not on board with support?
JobSecurity
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Hope his security team has a wheelbarrow

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