***Russian - Ukraine War Tactical and Strategic Updates*** [Warning on OP]

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YouBet
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rgag12 said:

I don't get the notion that Russia is working against some clock. They've reached and almost encircled the enemy capital in less than 2 days. The president of Ukraine is wanting to die defending city, or so he portrays.

If the ultimate goal is to overthrow the government and install a pro-Russian puppet, what's the difference if it takes 3 days versus 7 days. The prestige?


The longer this has gone on the more support you've seen from the rest of the planet about supporting Ukraine. The longer this goes on the more NATO is going to actually do something. People love an underdog and the fact that Ukraine is showing fight has people rallying to their cause.

Russia knows this. If they don't end this quickly, they stand a chance of more and more direct support for Ukraine.
TAMU1990
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jabberwalkie09 said:


Would love for a tiger to get loose and attack a Russian.
Jayhawk
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AgBQ-00 said:

Traditionally Russians take a long while to get their stuff together and the steamroll once they get their masses going. But to not be better prepared for an offensive you planned is headscratching to say the least.
And unlike in former times, they don't have quite the same weight of sheer numbers as the Soviets and the Tsar once did, e.g. the Russins asking (and being refused) troops from Kazakhstan etc.
jabberwalkie09
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YouBet said:

Meanwhile, some jackass on CNN is saying that Ukraine needs to be negotiating a surrender with Russia. Uh, no.

I saw some guy on CMN saying that Ukraine should negotiate, cede land, and agree to total neutrality. These people…
Who?mikejones!
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It's cost putin a lot more than he predicted.

He lost at least a dozen of aircraft. He's had entire units wiped. Who knows how many tanks and vehicles are gone. Kia and other casualties are unknown but not small.

He's had to conscript the medical field of Russia. There's been protests in Russian city centers numbering in the 1000s. Prominent Russian athletes have made bold and global statements against this action. He will get more internal pressure the longer this goes.

His supply lines are vulnerable. Especially against a guerrilla force. Each day this goes on is another day for the ukes(and world) to mount a stronger defense and create a quagmire.
n_touch
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Seems like he thought everyone would just bow out of the fight and let them have the city. This is why they did kot go after infrastructure right away. That all has to be rebuilt. He wanted quick and fast and its not happening. *I haven't stayed at a Holiday Inn but I did log some serious Command and Conquer hours back in the day.
PrestigeWorldwideAg12
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Putin seems way different now... He must have some illness and has the thought process that if he cannot live anymore than nobody else can either.
Jayhawk
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Jayhawk said:

AgBQ-00 said:

Traditionally Russians take a long while to get their stuff together and the steamroll once they get their masses going. But to not be better prepared for an offensive you planned is headscratching to say the least.
And unlike in former times, they don't have quite the same weight of sheer numbers as the Soviets and the Tsar once did, e.g. the Russins asking (and being refused) troops from Kazakhstan etc.

* Edit to dd: They obviously do have a massive numerical superiority in terms of fielded forces vs the regular Ukrainians now. But it is not 1943 where the Russians can take obscene levels of casualties and simply press on with no consequences. Even by the time of their Afghanistan invasion, the Russians had become much more sensitive to casualties then they had been historically.
Who?mikejones!
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PrestigeWorldwideAg12 said:

battles in the live stream seem to be getting closer and closer


Link to the ones you're watching?
RangerRick9211
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https://twitter.com/marcorubio/status/1497393912821915648?cxt=HHwWgICp6ZD158cpAAAA
FireAg
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YouBet said:

Eliminatus said:

Agthatbuilds said:

Russians are definitely trying to get to uke president before daylight
I don't think it is any stretch of the imagination to assume that Russia is racing against a clock now. And they know it.

Zelensky is absolutely a priority target and I am rather surprised there hasn't been a concerted effort to get him yet.

Again, just in complete puzzlement over this whole thing. This is the most unRussian invasion Russia could do. It's almost stupid in some regards at the strategic and tactical levels. Is Russia getting exposed here as a top tier fighting force???
I'm wondering if their chain of command is just completely disorganized and not top shelf.

Or if their hearts aren't in it…
PrestigeWorldwideAg12
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Agthatbuilds said:

PrestigeWorldwideAg12 said:

battles in the live stream seem to be getting closer and closer


Link to the ones you're watching?
YouBet
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PrestigeWorldwideAg12 said:

Putin seems way different now... He must have some illness and has the thought process that if he cannot live anymore than nobody else can either.
Could be true. It's being speculated by experts. Former MI6 head said today that he's basically operating in isolation with 3 of 4 of his inner circle no longer having his ear.

This is also Russia's last chance at ever being relevant again. Their demographics are terminal. Dead country already.
Who?mikejones!
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Thanks
Who?mikejones!
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About 0430 now. Sun comes up in 2hrs
PrestigeWorldwideAg12
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I agree... I mean this just doesn't make sense.

Something has to be going on within Putin himself and his shelf life must be coming to an end. I guess he wants to remove as much as he possibly can for the motherland while he goes down as well.
cone
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well, yes

plus every day the Ukrainians hold out builds their resolve to fight, even after occupation

ideally if your goal is just to dislodge the government, you want to do it in a rout, leaving the previous status quo humiliated (like in Afghanistan). if the people wake up and there's a new puppet government but the trains are running on time, no time for previous regime propaganda, no burning buildings, then that meets your stated goal. you'll get dissidents but overall resistance morale should be nonexistent.

Russia is going to win but I'm surprised this is taking so long. I'm surprised they attacked only a few hours before dawn. I'm surprised Ukraine jets are flying sorties.
jabberwalkie09
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Update from the western side of the city.
AgBQ-00
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All very true. It is also much different defending and then going offensive vs straight aggression. The parallels between this and the start of ww1 are striking in terms of the Russians. Jumped off with a poor plan got bloodied and generally stirred up strife on the home front after people started questioning why they had to defend the homeland by crossing borders into other countries. Of course news traveled much slower then so we may see that shift much quicker now. And like you said I'm not sure they have the stomach for massed attacks like they used to.
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chris1515
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It's about 460 miles from Kiev to Moscow. Why isn't Ukraine taking the battle to Moscow? Some car bombers or something low tech.
jabberwalkie09
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Further update from Kyiv's west.
jabberwalkie09
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Russian army sustainment continues to be a problem for them.
n_touch
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chris1515 said:

It's about 460 miles from Kiev to Moscow. Why isn't Ukraine taking the battle to Moscow? Some car bombers or something low tech.


Right now they are defenders. They are protesting in Russia for this happening. You take the fight to their home and it changes to you being an aggressor.
PrestigeWorldwideAg12
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Though undermanned and underpowered, Ukes have the advantage of playing hide and seek guerilla warfare on home front especially within Kyiv. Wouldn't surprise me with the focus, will, and sheer pride these dudes are showing that they take out another 10k Russians in the next 24-48hrs. This will really tip Putin over the edge IMHO.
RONA Ag
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At this point you hope that Ukraine's resolve is strong enough that even if their leadership structure is captured that they are willing to run an all out decentralized guerilla war
BusterAg
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RangerRick9211 said:

Russia could bomb Kyiv to rubble I'd wager.

But then what's the point? They want a puppet state. Kinda hard when there's no capital to govern from.
Kiev is the ancestral homeland of Eastern Orthodox Christianity. The ancient buildings in Kiev are likely one of the primary reasons for the invasion. No way Putin takes those out. It would be like Saudi Arabia leveling Jerusalem, including the Dome on the Rock.
DCPD158
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chris1515 said:

It's about 460 miles from Kiev to Moscow. Why isn't Ukraine taking the battle to Moscow? Some car bombers or something low tech.
Because there are Anti-war protests in over 40 Russian towns and cities. Why would you want to indiscriminately kill those people that are against their own country's invasion?

Don't so anything to cause them to rethink what is happening.
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panhandlefarmer
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Why don't the Ukrainians shut off the natural gas to Europe?
BusterAg
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It's not the time, it's the body bags and the expense.

Putin probably doesn't care much. Russia does.
bangobango
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Robk said:

YouBet said:

Meanwhile, some jackass on CNN is saying that Ukraine needs to be negotiating a surrender with Russia. Uh, no.
I was listening to that and getting pissed off. I mean I guess it is a take on it, but not one I would want to follow or consider if this was happening in my country.


I really liked the other guest's response.
Who?mikejones!
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PrestigeWorldwideAg12 said:

Agthatbuilds said:

PrestigeWorldwideAg12 said:

battles in the live stream seem to be getting closer and closer


Link to the ones you're watching?



Definitely rifle fire and yelling being herd on your stream

And, jazz?????
Waffledynamics
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You can hear fierce fighting on this livestream right as I post this.

txags92
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FireAg said:

YouBet said:

Eliminatus said:

Agthatbuilds said:

Russians are definitely trying to get to uke president before daylight
I don't think it is any stretch of the imagination to assume that Russia is racing against a clock now. And they know it.

Zelensky is absolutely a priority target and I am rather surprised there hasn't been a concerted effort to get him yet.

Again, just in complete puzzlement over this whole thing. This is the most unRussian invasion Russia could do. It's almost stupid in some regards at the strategic and tactical levels. Is Russia getting exposed here as a top tier fighting force???
I'm wondering if their chain of command is just completely disorganized and not top shelf.

Or if their hearts aren't in it…
We've seen repeated reports of Russian troops claiming they were surprised when Ukes shot back and didn't expect to be actually fighting. I wonder if they didn't give their troops the whole truth and they are losing the will to fight as they get further in and realize how unwelcome they are?
Who?mikejones!
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Waffledynamics said:

You can hear fierce fighting on this livestream right as I post this.




Jazz in your feed as well
BusterAg
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YouBet said:

rgag12 said:

I don't get the notion that Russia is working against some clock. They've reached and almost encircled the enemy capital in less than 2 days. The president of Ukraine is wanting to die defending city, or so he portrays.

If the ultimate goal is to overthrow the government and install a pro-Russian puppet, what's the difference if it takes 3 days versus 7 days. The prestige?


The longer this has gone on the more support you've seen from the rest of the planet about supporting Ukraine. The longer this goes on the more NATO is going to actually do something. People love an underdog and the fact that Ukraine is showing fight has people rallying to their cause.

Russia knows this. If they don't end this quickly, they stand a chance of more and more direct support for Ukraine.
I don't think it is so much that people love underdogs as they hate bloodthirsty invaders.

When is the last time someone has gotten away with a violent incursion (other than the U.S.)?
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