***Russian - Ukraine War Tactical and Strategic Updates*** [Warning on OP]

7,547,187 Views | 47728 Replies | Last: 6 hrs ago by 74OA
Who?mikejones!
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Are they gonna carpet bomb Kiev or do precision strikes?
Ted Lasso
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AG
Lots of chatter that Putin may allow russian hackers to full on attack western businesses, infrastructure, etc. Wouldn't be Russian govt per se
I Sold DeSantis Lifts
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I don't really pray, but whatever I'm doing, thinking about the people and hoping for the best for them. ****ing Putin
2wealfth Man
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Rossticus
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amercer said:

There were a lot of Soviets that didn't want to die either, and thought that firing nukes first was the best way to prevent it.


I just don't see that in Putin. If he fired a nuke the entire world would come down on him because he'd suddenly be a threat to global survival.
amercer
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Im going to guess their precision bombing isn't precise by our standards, but no way they just carpet bomb. One, most of the bombs miss anything important and two flattening a city is probably still to far for Putin at this point.
Demosthenes81
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Agthatbuilds said:

Are they gonna carpet bomb Kiev or do precision strikes?


When have the Russians ever chosen precision over terror?
Seven and three are ten, not only now, but forever. There has never been a time when seven and three were not ten, nor will there ever be a time when they are not ten. Therefore, I have said that the truth of number is incorruptible and common to all who think. — St. Augustine
Nitro Power
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After todays stand by Ukraine, I think it's going to be no holds barred. Carpet bomb the **** out of them without remorse for any civilians, women or children that end up being a casualty.
aggiehawg
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TwoMarksHand said:

aggiehawg said:

Rossticus said:


Aw crap. We are doomed. Mayorkas is a disaster.


What does this tweet mean? Threat of Rusky cyberwar with US?
Hell, at this point it is a green light to anyone that wants to mess with us cyber wise. Russians will be blamed no matter what.

We have complete idiots running an out of control government right now.
Rossticus
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Russian troops heart isn't in this at all based on OSINT live space. Extremely demoralized and many forced to sign up to be there at threat of violence.

Many haven't been getting regular rations. Many outright giving up to Ukrainians. Could end this if faced with frightening resistance and 50%+ would throw their hands up and surrender in a heartbeat.
Sully Dog
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TwoMarksHand said:

aggiehawg said:

Rossticus said:


Aw crap. We are doomed. Mayorkas is a disaster.


What does this tweet mean? Threat of Rusky cyberwar with US?
That's exactly what that is about. Russia has been living in our power grid for quite some time.
Deplorable Neanderthal Clinger
2wealfth Man
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Demosthenes81 said:

Agthatbuilds said:

Are they gonna carpet bomb Kiev or do precision strikes?


When have the Russians ever chosen precision over terror?
Who?mikejones!
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Rossticus
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Heroes and patriots.
htownag10
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The ghost

amercer
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Pipe dream, but not sure what Putin would do if Poland came in on Ukraines side. I don't think the Russians can fight a long war, and I don't think they could pivot quickly to crush Poland. (Not that I want to see a bunch of Poles get killed)
amercer
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Would also maybe be a good moment for Georgia to try to get some land back.
2wealfth Man
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Just as a point of observation; I have noted a lot of the Russian equipment seems to be of older vintage. Outside of elite units; I don't perceive them to be any kind of cutting edge military force. Sort of old school beat'em with armor and numbers. The air assault at Kyiv today seems to have been horribly botched.
Rossticus
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amercer said:

Pipe dream, but not sure what Putin would do if Poland came in on Ukraines side. I don't think the Russians can fight a long war, and I don't think they could pivot quickly to crush Poland. (Not that I want to see a bunch of Poles get killed)


I think that a lot of Russian forces would give up. It's turning out that a lot of the conscripts don't have the will for this. Many/most of them don't have night vision gear, including seasoned troops. They're heavily under equipped. Ukrainians are kicking their ass at night. They just need a little boost.
ja86
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Poland and the Baltic states need to go in for a land grab. Then exchange them for concessions. Russia doesn't have the forces to fight a multi-front war.
CuriousAg
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Ramifications of going in and eliminating Putin? Is this premature?
Positive Ag
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If Putin fails his own party will take care of him.
Rossticus
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Positive Ag said:

If Putin fails his own party will take care of him.


Yes. It's a tremendous opportunity we may be forgoing. But I don't have a crystal ball and lives would be at stake. Heavy decision.
I Sold DeSantis Lifts
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Love this thread but how much of this could be Ukrainian propaganda? I want the guys to successful defend their nation but I think Russia could crush them easily
aezmvp
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ja86 said:

Poland and the Baltic states need to go in for a land grab. Then exchange them for concessions. Russia doesn't have the forces to fight a multi-front war.
The Russian strategy would be to use tactical nuclear weapons and then deescalate. Nothing I have seen this far makes me think they wouldn't.
jabberwalkie09
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2wealfth Man said:

Just as a point of observation; I have noted a lot of the Russian equipment seems to be of older vintage. Outside of elite units; I don't perceive them to be any kind of cutting edge military force. Sort of old school beat'em with armor and numbers.

Russia has a lot of equipment in inventory from the Soviet Union days. They have modernized a lot of other older systems while developing new technologies, but there are limits to what the can do until they have to develop newer systems. Keeping a military relevant in Modern times isn't cheap. Especially when you have nuclear submarines and constantly developing missile technologies.
Rossticus
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Jay Reimenschneider said:

Love this thread but how much of this could be Ukrainian propaganda? I want the guys to successful defend their nation but I think Russia could crush them easily


Pretty much everything here has been vetted by reputable OSINT sources. They take this very seriously (the reputable ones, anyway).
2wealfth Man
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Jay Reimenschneider said:

Love this thread but how much of this could be Ukrainian propaganda? I want the guys to successful defend their nation but I think Russia could crush them easily
sure, they have them on sheer numbers and firepower. Urban fighting heavily nullifies that advantage. Check out the Battle for Manila for context.
aggiehawg
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Positive Ag said:

If Putin fails his own party will take care of him.
Not that sure of that. Russian education has been in the toilet for decades. Only people in Russia that know much of anything are in that position because of Putin. Knowledge is power. And the average Russian doesn't have a lot.

But some do. Russians don't want this war with Ukraine.
Rossticus
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aggiehawg said:

Positive Ag said:

If Putin fails his own party will take care of him.
Not that sure of that. Russian education has been in the toilet for decades. Only people in Russia that know much of anything are in that position because of Putin. Knowledge is power. And the average Russian doesn't have a lot.

But some do. Russians don't want this war with Ukraine.


They will if we cut them off from the world financially. Everyone is loyal to the mob boss until they see cracks. Then people start scheming.
ja86
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aezmvp said:

ja86 said:

Poland and the Baltic states need to go in for a land grab. Then exchange them for concessions. Russia doesn't have the forces to fight a multi-front war.
The Russian strategy would be to use tactical nuclear weapons and then deescalate. Nothing I have seen this far makes me think they wouldn't.


Could be. Putin went all in when he could have had the same results if he played a long game and chewed up Ukraine over several years.
SidsBurnerAccount
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htownag10 said:


Interesting nuggets on the Ukrainian Navy. First reports were they'd been completely sunk and caught napping in harbor (fog of war I suppose). Wish I could find some info on what's really happening with them.
JobSecurity
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AG
Rossticus
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ja86 said:

aezmvp said:

ja86 said:

Poland and the Baltic states need to go in for a land grab. Then exchange them for concessions. Russia doesn't have the forces to fight a multi-front war.
The Russian strategy would be to use tactical nuclear weapons and then deescalate. Nothing I have seen this far makes me think they wouldn't.


Could be. Putin went all in when he could have had the same results if he played a long game and chewed up Ukraine over several years.


If he unleashed even one tactical nuke He'd have every developed country rain hellfire down on him and China wouldn't get in the way.
Rossticus
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SidsBurnerAccount said:

htownag10 said:


Interesting nuggets on the Ukrainian Navy. First reports were they'd been completely sunk and caught napping in harbor (fog of war I suppose). Wish I could find some info on what's really happening with them.


Their modern ships were sortied and moved to Romania. A handful of US and UK purchased ships.

I know they moved some of these:

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mark_VI_patrol_boat

And these:

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Island-class_patrol_vessel


Nothing massive I don't think.
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