Holy shiz…. They wouldn't put it on the damn agenda if they hadn't already had serious preliminary discussion and it had at least a slim chance of occurring. And releasing it publicly?!?!

LUKASHENKO PROPOSES TO HOLD TALKS BETWEEN RUSSIA AND UKRAINE IN MINSK - RIA

— *Walter Bloomberg (@DeItaone) February 24, 2022

Irish 2.0 said:

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EUROPEAN LEADERS TO DISCUSS OFFERING EU CANDIDATE STATUS TO UKRAINE AT THURSDAY'S EUROPEAN SUMMIT -LITHUANIAN PRESIDENT

— *Walter Bloomberg (@DeItaone) February 24, 2022

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Bold move. We already know a NATO enrollment is a line in the sand to him (Pre invasion). Wonder how an EU membership will trigger him.

Those little breakaways are feeling very spicy at the moment.

Irish 2.0 said:

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LUKASHENKO PROPOSES TO HOLD TALKS BETWEEN RUSSIA AND UKRAINE IN MINSK - RIA

— *Walter Bloomberg (@DeItaone) February 24, 2022

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Bwahahahaha!!! Oh, come the fork on. Lmao!

Rossticus said:

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Holy shiz…. They wouldn't put it on the damn agenda if they hadn't already had serious preliminary discussion and it had at least a slim chance of occurring. And releasing it publicly?!?!

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This has been mentioned a couple of times iirc since Monday.

Irish 2.0 said:

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If you take Russia off SWIFT, 99% of the companies in Russia that do business in the US and EU won't be able to receive their funds from customers in SWIFT countries.

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How many of those companies do business in China as well?

jabberwalkie09 said:

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Rossticus said:

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Holy shiz…. They wouldn't put it on the damn agenda if they hadn't already had serious preliminary discussion and it had at least a slim chance of occurring. And releasing it publicly?!?!

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This has been mentioned a couple of times iirc since Monday.

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I thought it was speculated but generally dismissed as highly unlikely.

Irish 2.0 said:

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If you take Russia off SWIFT, 99% of the companies in Russia that do business in the US and EU won't be able to receive their funds from customers in SWIFT countries.

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Terrible ain't it.

jabberwalkie09 said:

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Eliminatus said:

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Irish 2.0 said:

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Russia going to lose SWIFT access and think that will crush them to the point of interior pressure.

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Really makes me wonder if "contingency plans' will kick in to remove Putin of said pressure continues to build.

Again, thinking through all of this with the data we have and the near unilateral condemnation of the world, Russia ****ed up real bad here. And by Russia, I mean Putin. I don't see them coming out of this as clear victors. The Ukes I truly believe are going to stiffen and dig in and fight for the long haul. Can Russia survive that? The longer this goes on, IMO, the worse and worse this becomes for Russia.

Thoughts?

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Russian stockpiled reserve currency and has been working on a similar system but separate from SWIFT. I'm not sure that removing them from SWIFT will have the crippling effect we may think. China seems to be the only major power walking the line of "I can't say **** if I don't want Russia in my corner over Taiwan." There's no way that Putin comes out of this winning imo. He's going to lose abroad and at home. The Russian market just took one to the nuts. It's going to be awhile for it to recover.

Europe and us will need to severely curtail trade with Russia to have any impact. All Russian banks sanctioned. Diplomats need to be PNG'ed. Embassies need to close.

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This may actually be on the table hopefully. Everyone is talking real tough on sanctions, "unprecedented" and whatnot.

And how long can Russia survive on their reserves? Legit have no idea and curious.

I think we in the west tend to get caught up in thinking Putin is this monolithic powerhouse who is untouchable. Anyone who knows an inkling of Russian history knows this is probably extremely unlikely. He may lead a united government on the surface but I would bet everything I own that there are forces and ideas and contingency plans thought out "in case".

Rossticus said:

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Irish 2.0 said:

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LUKASHENKO PROPOSES TO HOLD TALKS BETWEEN RUSSIA AND UKRAINE IN MINSK - RIA

— *Walter Bloomberg (@DeItaone) February 24, 2022

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Bwahahahaha!!! Oh, come the fork on. Lmao!

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May have been the setup failsafe to get Russia out of a bad situation?

Their 2021 GDP was 1709.58 billion and they have between 600-700 in reserve.

jabberwalkie09 said:

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Irish 2.0 said:

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If you take Russia off SWIFT, 99% of the companies in Russia that do business in the US and EU won't be able to receive their funds from customers in SWIFT countries.

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How many of those companies do business in China as well?

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Plenty, but Europe accounts for ~30% of the Russian GDP and the US imports over 500K BPD of Russian oil. Oil settled in USD, so you're talking ~$50MM/day. Not sure of terms, but say it's 30 day terms and that's $1.5B that Russia is frozen out of on day one of SWIFT sanction from the US alone

SIREN GOING OFF IN POLISH TOWN OF MEDYKA, A BORDER CROSSING WITH UKRAINE - REUTERS WITNESS

— *Walter Bloomberg (@DeItaone) February 24, 2022

Eliminatus said:

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Rossticus said:

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Irish 2.0 said:

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LUKASHENKO PROPOSES TO HOLD TALKS BETWEEN RUSSIA AND UKRAINE IN MINSK - RIA

— *Walter Bloomberg (@DeItaone) February 24, 2022

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Bwahahahaha!!! Oh, come the fork on. Lmao!

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May have been the setup failsafe to get Russia out of a bad situation?

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Nobody is going to trust that setup. You'd have to be a certified moron.

Irish 2.0 said:

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jabberwalkie09 said:

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Irish 2.0 said:

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If you take Russia off SWIFT, 99% of the companies in Russia that do business in the US and EU won't be able to receive their funds from customers in SWIFT countries.

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How many of those companies do business in China as well?

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Plenty, but Europe accounts for ~30% of the Russian GDP and the US imports over 500K BPD of Russian oil. Oil settled in USD, so you're telling ~$50MM/day. Not sure of terms, but say it's 30 day terms and that's $1.5B that Russia is frozen out of on day of SWIFT sanction

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Oof that's going to smart much, much more than I thought.

jabberwalkie09 said:

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SIREN GOING OFF IN POLISH TOWN OF MEDYKA, A BORDER CROSSING WITH UKRAINE - REUTERS WITNESS

— *Walter Bloomberg (@DeItaone) February 24, 2022

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Test?

Rossticus said:

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Their 2021 GDP was 1709.58 billion and they have between 600-700 in reserve.

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Yeah, then Russia needs a quick end to this mess that they started and I am not sure they are going to get it.

Russia needs to pay this time. They have gotten away with too many adventures already and need to feel the consequences for once. I think that is why the old breakaways are pushing so hard to make things happen. They have to be frustrated beyond all hell seeing this.

Rossticus said:

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jabberwalkie09 said:

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SIREN GOING OFF IN POLISH TOWN OF MEDYKA, A BORDER CROSSING WITH UKRAINE - REUTERS WITNESS

— *Walter Bloomberg (@DeItaone) February 24, 2022

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Test?

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I hope so, but what a ****ty time to do a test.

Ugh. off to bed now. Gotta be in class in about.....4 and half hours. I live a half hour from campus.

Keep up the good work on this thread, gents and gentiles.

Lukashenko is a ***** trying to play both ways

BELARUSIAN LEADER LUKASHENKO SAYS BELARUSIAN TROOPS COULD TAKE PART IN CONFLICT IF NEEDED - MEDIA

— *Walter Bloomberg (@DeItaone) February 24, 2022

Heavy fighting on the road by Kharkiv. Reportedly Russian tank on fire.

Completely surreal to watch this unfold as two pedestrians stand calmly and watch from a few hundred meters away. https://t.co/GF6jFzrNTR

— Oliver Alexander (@OAlexanderDK) February 24, 2022

Eliminatus said:

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Ugh. off to bed now. Gotta be in class in about.....4 and half hours. I live a half hour from campus.

Keep up the good work on this thread, gents and gentiles.

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Yeah, this 8 hour time differential has me all ****ed up.

.

Geolocation of reported Kalibr cruise missile striking near Ivano-Frankivsk airbase

Filmed from 48.89714, 24.71519 https://t.co/gzVt7o621q pic.twitter.com/IpIxP9qsU4

— John Marquee (@john_marquee) February 24, 2022

Rossticus said:

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Eliminatus said:

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Ugh. off to bed now. Gotta be in class in about.....4 and half hours. I live a half hour from campus.

Keep up the good work on this thread, gents and gentiles.

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Yeah, this 8 hour time differential has me all ****ed up.

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Working on a 13hrs difference from my office and was on calls all day to make sure our house was in order and any orders we take from certain countries are pay in advance until further notice.

Fun times for you. Woof.

U.S. Blackhawk heading in the direction of Ukraine https://t.co/IuiUhO6CjD

— C O U P S U R E (@COUPSURE) February 24, 2022

Meh. My division does very minimal work in that region. But nonetheless, I wanted our ass covered even if we are a Hong Kong company. Not worth the potential headache down the road

Rossticus said:

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The burning tank vid MAY be from 2015, fyi. Could be wrong.

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Hmm. I know I saw the picture from 2014 when the RU flag was put on a building. I've also seen that and one other video claiming fighting on the outskirts. The other one looked kind of sus.

jabberwalkie09 said:

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Rossticus said:

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The burning tank vid MAY be from 2015, fyi. Could be wrong.

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Hmm. I know I saw the picture from 2014 when the RU flag was put on a building. I've also seen that and one other video claiming fighting on the outskirts. The other one looked kind of sus.

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Live map seems to have vetted it so I deleted my comment.

Zelensky about to turn Ukrainian prisoners into a new military unit!

UKRAINE PRESIDENT SAYS WE WILL REMOVE SANCTIONS FROM ALL CITIZENS OF UKRAINE WHO ARE READY TO DEFEND OUR STATE WITH WEAPONS IN THEIR HANDS

— *Walter Bloomberg (@DeItaone) February 24, 2022

15 supply trucks at Ukraine/Poland border as of 10 min ago. Video feed killed as soon as reported on feed within a couple of minutes.

(thread) So a basic summary of my (unprofessional) thoughts of the first six(ish) hours of the Russian ground assault.

1. This isn't the US in Iraq circa 91 or 03, Russia is using some cruise missiles and PGMs to hit targets but they are not conducting comprehensive strikes

— OSINTtechnical (@Osinttechnical) February 24, 2022

Long thread but he has a point in sensors and nav capabilities.

pic.twitter.com/IzR2DsT8BA

— OSINTtechnical (@Osinttechnical) February 24, 2022