Putin is concerned with:

1. Avoiding a bayonet in his rectum or some other horrific fate
2. Maintaining power
3. His legacy from a Russian perspective

He needs to salvage something from this war. The future viability of Russia is someone else's problem. Putin is a cold and amoral person. Dictators who make it to old age typically are.

wbt5845 said:

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So I know you guys have followed this war a lot more closely than most, so what are y'alls thoughts on what Putin is doing with this referendum?

Is it to annex this part of Ukraine and just stop? Is it just strategic so that, if I=Ukraine attacks these areas, he can claim Russia is being attacked?

I thought the whole point of the war was to put a friendly government in place in Ukraine, but is Putin now looking for some other way out?

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I think there is a domestic legal/political component driving annexation of Ukrainian territory. As you note Putin wants to reframe Ukraine's counter-attacks as attacks directly on Russia. Instead of a pretext to use nukes, I believe it is simply to sidestep political opposition and provide legal authorization for martial law and nationalizing the means of military production for a 'fuller' mobilization than the currently authorized 'partial' mobilization.

Gaius Julius Bevo said:

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They mustered up a bunch of middle-aged and elderly men. Gads. Humor me, gents. Is there any good use out of these Russians other than cannon fodder? Can they be tasked with something meaningful that they can yet accomplish?

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Putin at this point has to be hoping that if he can hold onto Luhansk and Donetsk into the winter when advancing will become much more difficult for both sides, then he can wait out an economic and social collapse due to the lack of energy in Europe. Once Europe is absorbed with their own problems and desperately needs energy, he is hoping they will force Ukraine to accept negotiations to let him keep what he already has. Then he will go back to supplying them with energy until he gets enough troops built up to try again.

With what pipeline? Isn't the one they were using out of commission, or are there other routes that aren't under the sea or cross through Ukraine that are still viable?

I am in the minority with this, but i think he will declare the occupied territories as Russian soil, launch an EMP, and bill rush the front with conscripts. What a waste of human life.

The Fife said:

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With what pipeline? Isn't the one they were using out of commission, or are there other routes that aren't under the sea or cross through Ukraine that are still viable?

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There is a pipeline through Ukraine at the least. Not sure what others are out there. Haven't seen evidence that the NordStream lines are irreparable yet. You would be surprised how quickly that kind of thing can be repaired when everybody needs it to operate.

Thanks for the insight.

Would this be a Russian repair? I never followed the project when it was being built and don't really know much about pipelines and their ownership or control in general.

The Fife said:

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Would this be a Russian repair? I never followed the project when it was being built and don't really know much about pipelines and their ownership or control in general.

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It would have to be cooperative between both ends of the line. If either side tried to repair it unilaterally, the other side could just start pumping gas again to destroy their efforts.

Russian sources repeated that Ukrainian forces are in Kolodyazi and are " lining up in assault columns from the direction of the settlement of Kolodyazi" pic.twitter.com/gVJP4ksdwV

— WarMonitor🇺🇦 (@WarMonitor3) September 28, 2022

A LAV 6.0 Armoured Combat Support Vehicle (ACSV) found on the Federal Motorway 20 in Germany, as part of a $500 million package of Canadian military aid for Ukraine. https://t.co/K5XrKPZ1OH
(Photo: Tim) pic.twitter.com/yUFZlp9xUg

— Ronkainen (@ronkainen7k15) September 28, 2022

«Kolos» hotel in Oleshki after pinpoint strike pic.twitter.com/aMvy0hvfmf

— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) September 28, 2022

GeoConfirmed.

"«Kolos» hotel in Oleshki after HIMARS strike, sources on the ground suggests this is where mobilized men where dropped off."

46.623933, 32.715805

GeoLocated by @DavidNewschool https://t.co/OBpjkPx59C

— GeoConfirmed (@GeoConfirmed) September 28, 2022

MouthBQ98 said:

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Yes, the whole nukes thing was only saber rattling to remind everyone they still have them and not to try to hit them at home while they are down. It also reassures the Russians that they have a superpower legacy at least and helps with morale at home in theory.

It is unsettling but the Russian policy on using nukes is pretty clear and globally, pretty much everyone that has them has a clear policy on when they might be used and it is primarily only as a counter to the strategic threat of others, and not as a practical war fighting measure. The only exception is North Korea simply because they have an unstable neurotic leadership.

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the funny thing about north korea is, everyone says they are unstable and neurotic.... yet they have had a clear, quiet succession and no conflicts for 70 years now.

maybe the neurotic bit is really just for show?

Optimistic, perhaps? After the Kharkiv counteroffensive and what seems to be a snowballing mobilization, this could become reality.

By the end of this year, Ukrainian troops will push back Russian troops at the position of Feb. 23 – predicts Former Commander of US Army in Europe Ben Hodges

Also, Hodges supposes that by the middle of the next year, Ukrainians will be in Crimea.https://t.co/MyBeRQwkxt

— Euromaidan Press (@EuromaidanPress) September 28, 2022

AgLA06 said:

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The number of countries and embassies suddenly demanding their constitutes leave Russia is interesting.

This "war" has been going on for 7 months. What is triggering it now?

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Could be the belief that Russia is about to close all its borders.

Waffledynamics said:

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amazing headline by Russia Today pic.twitter.com/Vi3wjXc126

— Status-6 (@Archer83Able) September 28, 2022

This is a real headline.

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Um, isn't that pretty much what war entails? And remind me again who started the war?

Waffledynamics said:

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amazing headline by Russia Today pic.twitter.com/Vi3wjXc126

— Status-6 (@Archer83Able) September 28, 2022

This is a real headline.

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That seems silly. If you are an aggressor on Ukrainian territory, reservist or careerist soldier, expect to surrender or be shot at.

Perhaps. It keeps everyone guessing or doubting just enough.

Bryan98 said:

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AgLA06 said:

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FriscoKid said:

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Looks like these guys have the same guns that they used the first time they fought the Germans. They should know how to use them.

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You know how I know you aren't a military history buff?

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You didn't understand that was a joke? It was hilarious! You can't let little details get in the way of a great joke.

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There are probably large numbers of people with dual citizenship, which I'm sure Russia will soon start to not recognize. They already may not in many instances.

#German special services believe that the lines of #NordStream2 and #Nordstream1 damaged by explosions may be out of service forever - Tagesspiegel.

Meanwhile, the Swedish Coast Guard publishes new footage of the #NordstreamLeaks. pic.twitter.com/98DBfQopzA

— NEXTA (@nexta_tv) September 28, 2022

Russian Rybar with an update to the Lyman situation which they have been covering extensively, the progress of the AFU is clear and the map looks worrying for the Russians, not a lot of the supply line left. Probably can expect "regrouping" eventually.https://t.co/bm2HsVQb4I pic.twitter.com/6Vo6ipQVQw

— Dmitri (@wartranslated) September 28, 2022

Waffledynamics said:

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Optimistic, perhaps? After the Kharkiv counteroffensive and what seems to be a snowballing mobilization, this could become reality.

By the end of this year, Ukrainian troops will push back Russian troops at the position of Feb. 23 – predicts Former Commander of US Army in Europe Ben Hodges

Also, Hodges supposes that by the middle of the next year, Ukrainians will be in Crimea.https://t.co/MyBeRQwkxt

— Euromaidan Press (@EuromaidanPress) September 28, 2022

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Barring an unlikely complete collapse of Russian military structure, that prognostication is not realistic at all.

It looks like Ukraine has some nice momentum in the NE, but southern Ukraine looks way more challenging. Ukraine would have to either stage a major southerly breakout around Zaporizhzhia, or take the northern bank of kherson and subsequently attempt a major river crossing operation setting up bridgeheads under intense resistance from dug-in Russians. After that it would have to be a historic rout in order to push Russia out of southern Ukraine before January.

I'm not saying it can't be done, but to say it will be done in 3 months is highly unlikely. I think people's expectations got a little out of whack after the opening of Ukraine's Kharkiv counter-offensive where Ukraine rightly exploited Russia's bad strategy of holding a large area with only a handful of battalions.

I think part of Putins plan, as mentioned above, is to make sure that this is over one way or another before next summer.

Waffledynamics said:

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#German special services believe that the lines of #NordStream2 and #Nordstream1 damaged by explosions may be out of service forever - Tagesspiegel.

Meanwhile, the Swedish Coast Guard publishes new footage of the #NordstreamLeaks. pic.twitter.com/98DBfQopzA

— NEXTA (@nexta_tv) September 28, 2022

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That begs the question of whether the lines are expected to be out of service forever because they "can't" be repaired because they are too badly damaged, or because they "won't" be repaired because Germany has no interest in buying gas from Russia in the future once they get their LNG import terminals built.

rgag12 said:

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Waffledynamics said:

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Optimistic, perhaps? After the Kharkiv counteroffensive and what seems to be a snowballing mobilization, this could become reality.

By the end of this year, Ukrainian troops will push back Russian troops at the position of Feb. 23 – predicts Former Commander of US Army in Europe Ben Hodges

Also, Hodges supposes that by the middle of the next year, Ukrainians will be in Crimea.https://t.co/MyBeRQwkxt

— Euromaidan Press (@EuromaidanPress) September 28, 2022

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Barring an unlikely complete collapse of Russian military structure, that prognostication is not realistic at all.

It looks like Ukraine has some nice momentum in the NE, but southern Ukraine looks way more challenging. Ukraine would have to either stage a major southerly breakout around Zaporizhzhia, or take the northern bank of kherson and subsequently attempt a major river crossing operation setting up bridgeheads under intense resistance from dug-in Russians. After that it would have to be a historic rout in order to push Russia out of southern Ukraine before January.

I'm not saying it can't be done, but to say it will be done in 3 months is highly unlikely. I think people's expectations got a little out of whack after the opening of Ukraine's Kharkiv counter-offensive where Ukraine rightly exploited Russia's bad strategy of holding a large area with only a handful of battalions.

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People said the same thing about Kharkiv. Russia now has a less capable fighting force than they did before that offensive.

We'll see.

(Reuters) - Norway will deploy its military to protect its oil and gas installations against possible sabotage after several countries said two Russian pipelines to Europe spewing gas into the Baltic had been attacked, the prime minister said on Wednesday.

— Phil Stewart (@phildstewart) September 28, 2022

Waffledynamics said:

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(Reuters) - Norway will deploy its military to protect its oil and gas installations against possible sabotage after several countries said two Russian pipelines to Europe spewing gas into the Baltic had been attacked, the prime minister said on Wednesday.

— Phil Stewart (@phildstewart) September 28, 2022

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Here's the best update on the pipeline incident I've come across. The commentator at the 12-minute mark is particularly interesting--he has a heavy accent, but definitely worth a listen

LEAKS