AgLA06 said:

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LMCane said:

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is it better to leave one exfil avenue for the Russkies trapped north of the Dnieper along the Kherson line (there are two bridges and a dam)

or take them all out- leaving the Russkies completely cut off from resupply and besieged on three sides (with the river at their back that they can't get across)

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I guess it depends on if you'd expect them to fight or fold when cut off with no means of escape.

Art of war suggests always allowing for a limited means of escape even if it is a perceived avenue and not real so your enemy is less inclined to fight to the death.

In this case, however I believe Ukraine left them accessible for other reasons (civilians and Uke military use after.

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In the case of the Russians, it's very doubtful they will fight to the death rather than surrender. POWs today have a far less bleak future than did captives in Sun Tzu's day.

I used to deal with this style of concentricity issues at work. You'd be surprised until you aren't about what comes out of the 'good' mills. This would be an easy auto reject at the incoming inspection rack, but we've had some mills throw up their arms about our specs too tightly controlling features that you'd think would be obvious. 'We would just like you to put a circle hole down the middle of a circle tube' is a pretty tall order once you get into larger sizes and tightly defined holes.

Seamless hot rolled tube has some issues to it that more expensive cold drawn tube doesn't. Would not be surprised if the russians had to resort to hot rolled tube, got a bad concentricity and still had to make it work. Vlad can't figure out why the gun shoots 2 degrees left every time.

AgLA06 said:

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LMCane said:

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is it better to leave one exfil avenue for the Russkies trapped north of the Dnieper along the Kherson line (there are two bridges and a dam)

or take them all out- leaving the Russkies completely cut off from resupply and besieged on three sides (with the river at their back that they can't get across)

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I guess it depends on if you'd expect them to fight or fold when cut off with no means of escape.

Art of war suggests always allowing for a limited means of escape even if it is a perceived avenue and not real so your enemy is less inclined to fight to the death.

In this case, however I believe Ukraine left them accessible for other reasons (civilians and Uke military use after.

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It will be interesting to see what the Russians do when the Uke counterattack begins to close in on the city. A previous poster had linked something on Russians changing into civilian clothes and melting into the countryside in Kherson.

Also the current potential encirclement in the NE oblast may provide a clue as to what's possible. If the orcs fold the tent and surrender, it may create a ripple effect encouraging others to cut and run. All speculation of course. But I guess we'll find out soon enough.

When not drill the bore, then mill the barrel down to the thickness you need with the centerline of the bore already defined by the bore? Don't get me wrong, it's a good thing that QC and manufacturing processes were so poor in the old Warsaw Pact.

2 degrees would probably be highly accurate for that barrel.

AGS-R-TUFF said:

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AgLA06 said:

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LMCane said:

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is it better to leave one exfil avenue for the Russkies trapped north of the Dnieper along the Kherson line (there are two bridges and a dam)

or take them all out- leaving the Russkies completely cut off from resupply and besieged on three sides (with the river at their back that they can't get across)

---

I guess it depends on if you'd expect them to fight or fold when cut off with no means of escape.

Art of war suggests always allowing for a limited means of escape even if it is a perceived avenue and not real so your enemy is less inclined to fight to the death.

In this case, however I believe Ukraine left them accessible for other reasons (civilians and Uke military use after.

---

It will be interesting to see what the Russians do when the Uke counterattack begins to close in on the city. A previous poster had linked something on Russians changing into civilian clothes and melting into the countryside in Kherson.

Also the current potential encirclement in the NE oblast may provide a clue as to what's possible. If the orcs fold the tent and surrender, it may create a ripple effect encouraging others to cut and run. All speculation of course. But I guess we'll find out soon enough.

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If Ukraine retakes the south, it will then be able to concentrate its forces in the east and the Donbas will likely fall, too.

AGS-R-TUFF said:

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AgLA06 said:

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LMCane said:

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is it better to leave one exfil avenue for the Russkies trapped north of the Dnieper along the Kherson line (there are two bridges and a dam)

or take them all out- leaving the Russkies completely cut off from resupply and besieged on three sides (with the river at their back that they can't get across)

---

I guess it depends on if you'd expect them to fight or fold when cut off with no means of escape.

Art of war suggests always allowing for a limited means of escape even if it is a perceived avenue and not real so your enemy is less inclined to fight to the death.

In this case, however I believe Ukraine left them accessible for other reasons (civilians and Uke military use after.

---

It will be interesting to see what the Russians do when the Uke counterattack begins to close in on the city. A previous poster had linked something on Russians changing into civilian clothes and melting into the countryside in Kherson.

Also the current potential encirclement in the NE oblast may provide a clue as to what's possible. If the orcs fold the tent and surrender, it may create a ripple effect encouraging others to cut and run. All speculation of course. But I guess we'll find out soon enough.

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Fighting to the death defending your home turf is different but I half expect the orcs to just disappear like the Iraqi army after we initially rolled through Baghdad.

I don't expect this war to stalemate indefinitely. One side or the other will eventually get routed.

one MEEN Ag said:

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I used to deal with this style of concentricity issues at work. You'd be surprised until you aren't about what comes out of the 'good' mills. This would be an easy auto reject at the incoming inspection rack, but we've had some mills throw up their arms about our specs too tightly controlling features that you'd think would be obvious. 'We would just like you to put a circle hole down the middle of a circle tube' is a pretty tall order once you get into larger sizes and tightly defined holes.

Seamless hot rolled tube has some issues to it that more expensive cold drawn tube doesn't. Would not be surprised if the russians had to resort to hot rolled tube, got a bad concentricity and still had to make it work. Vlad can't figure out why the gun shoots 2 degrees left every time.

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Why does this sound so dirty?

74OA said:

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AGS-R-TUFF said:

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AgLA06 said:

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LMCane said:

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is it better to leave one exfil avenue for the Russkies trapped north of the Dnieper along the Kherson line (there are two bridges and a dam)

or take them all out- leaving the Russkies completely cut off from resupply and besieged on three sides (with the river at their back that they can't get across)

---

I guess it depends on if you'd expect them to fight or fold when cut off with no means of escape.

Art of war suggests always allowing for a limited means of escape even if it is a perceived avenue and not real so your enemy is less inclined to fight to the death.

In this case, however I believe Ukraine left them accessible for other reasons (civilians and Uke military use after.

---

It will be interesting to see what the Russians do when the Uke counterattack begins to close in on the city. A previous poster had linked something on Russians changing into civilian clothes and melting into the countryside in Kherson.

Also the current potential encirclement in the NE oblast may provide a clue as to what's possible. If the orcs fold the tent and surrender, it may create a ripple effect encouraging others to cut and run. All speculation of course. But I guess we'll find out soon enough.

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If Ukraine retakes the south, it will then be able to concentrate its forces in the east and the Donbas will likely fall, too.

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The Ukrainians are following the playbook that has been successful against the orcs at least twice so far in this war. Find weaknesses on the flanks of large concentrations of orcs, pinch in towards their main line of supply from those weak areas and start hampering their ability to maintain a supply of arms and food, and the concentration of orcs will break and retreat. It takes time to develop, but once it reaches a critical point, the orc retreat happens rapidly. It happened NW of Kiev around irpin and again over around Kharkiv. I suspect when they orcs in Kherson realize they are being pinched to the SW and ENE and that their cupply lines out of Crimea are getting heavily attacked, they will break and retreat into Crimea to avoid getting trapped between a hostile Ukrainian attacking force and a hostile public that is shooting at their backs every time they try to settle into a defensive position.

Red1 said:

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UKRAINE WAR

There is a concept in the military called Revolution In Military Affairs (RMA) which is doctrine, technology, weapons, and weapons platforms which gives the military possessing it an advantage. This war is very interesting as the Ukrainian RMA is all the precision weapons the western countries have given to her. What is revolutionary is a smaller military and small teams of guerilla type fighters can take on a heavy mechanized military. These weapons are:


- Javelins

- Stingers

- Drones

- Artillery

- HIMARS


These weapons afford the Ukrainians the ability to fight from a distance. That is their strength while the Russians want to pound it out in the close fight. I think it would be foolish for the Ukrainians to indulge in the close fight. In 1776 the Continental Army numbered perhaps 4,000 and the British forces were considerably larger. Washington knew this and spent most of the year save Christmas Day avoiding the British forces.

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As did Sam Houston. And both had folks calling for their replacement because of it. Then went on to win their wars.

Why not a simultaneous push to Kherson and Izium? That would break their force into thirds and pretty much end all ru assaults in the Donbas.

MouthBQ98 said:

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When not drill the bore, then mill the barrel down to the thickness you need with the centerline of the bore already defined by the bore? Don't get me wrong, it's a good thing that QC and manufacturing processes were so poor in the old Warsaw Pact.

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If you weren't getting any other tubes, cost wasn't an issue, and the bore would meet spec with the thin diameter all the way around, then for sure. Go turn electricity and labor into a pile of metal chips that far outstrips the cost of a new tube.

Ag In Ok said:

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Why not a simultaneous push to Kherson and Izium? That would break their force into thirds and pretty much end all ru assaults in the Donbas.

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If I remember correctly, the Izium Russian BTG concentration is significant. I don't think the Ukes can effectively push into both simultaneously. Izium is more of a stand your ground defensive posture until a successful Southern campaign gains traction.

They probably don't have the forces and equipment to do both at the same time.

AgLA06 said:

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2 degrees would probably be highly accurate for that barrel.

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Maybe the barrel is designed to curve fire around to the left. Like if there was a mountain in the way of the target.

Seems like the only thing really going on today is the confirmation of a couple Gepards being delivered.

What function will Ukraine use these? I get they are supposed to be anti aircraft, but in a mostly missile driven war they wouldn't seem to have a lot of use. Seems they ideally would be there to shoot down helicopters, yet Russian helicopters rarely leave occupied air space.

AgLA06 said:

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Seems like the only thing really going on today is the confirmation of a couple Gepards being delivered.

What function will Ukraine use these? I get they are supposed to be anti aircraft, but in a mostly missile driven war they wouldn't seem to have a lot of use. Seems they ideally would be there to shoot down helicopters, yet Russian helicopters rarely leave occupied air space.

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Gepards are MUCH more mobile and able to cover and engage on the fly. For fast moving forces on the offense, it is a great asset to have.

agent-maroon said:

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AgLA06 said:

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2 degrees would probably be highly accurate for that barrel.

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Maybe the barrel is designed to curve fire around to the left. Like if there was a mountain in the way of the target.

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I have been assured that it is ok to be a little curved.

On the real though, Russian products have always been notorious for lack of quality. Maybe not Chinese bad, but at least the Chinese have more or less embraced it while the Russians have always tried to compete against western industrial quality. I mean, it was a meme for generations. "Good enough" was basically a mantra for them.

Except where it comes face to face with western tech. Long term thinking now, Russian arms is going to have major problems selling armaments. Like after Gulf War but even more so I believe. Which has always been a major filler of their coffers.

I still struggle to understand Russia's inability to see how destructive this is to them. I get it, dictatorship/controlled message but still....

I suppose, but it would be straight and centered.

The communist motto for production was always perfect is the enemy of good enough.

Eliminatus said:

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AgLA06 said:

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Seems like the only thing really going on today is the confirmation of a couple Gepards being delivered.

What function will Ukraine use these? I get they are supposed to be anti aircraft, but in a mostly missile driven war they wouldn't seem to have a lot of use. Seems they ideally would be there to shoot down helicopters, yet Russian helicopters rarely leave occupied air space.

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Gepards are MUCH more mobile and able to cover and engage on the fly. For fast moving forces on the offense, it is a great asset to have.

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Excellent for mobile point defense. Its 35mm guns have a range of 3.4 miles and its radar can search and track out to ~10 miles, which makes it also useful for cuing MANPADS like Stinger.

Eliminatus said:

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AgLA06 said:

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Seems like the only thing really going on today is the confirmation of a couple Gepards being delivered.

What function will Ukraine use these? I get they are supposed to be anti aircraft, but in a mostly missile driven war they wouldn't seem to have a lot of use. Seems they ideally would be there to shoot down helicopters, yet Russian helicopters rarely leave occupied air space.

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Gepards are MUCH more mobile and able to cover and engage on the fly. For fast moving forces on the offense, it is a great asset to have.

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So basically they'll use them to cover armor columns?

AgLA06 said:

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2 degrees would probably be highly accurate for that barrel.

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When your primary targets are fixed civilian structures like schools, apartments, hospitals, homes, etc 2 degrees left or right really doesn't affect lethality or mission focus.

**** russia.

Regarding the south, that is key terrain for the whole of the country economically and strategically, that is why theyre focused on kicking orcs out there.

MouthBQ98 said:

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I suppose, but it would be straight and centered.

The communist motto for production was always perfect is the enemy of good enough.

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I always thought it was, "They pretend to pay, we pretend to work."

one MEEN Ag said:

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MouthBQ98 said:

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When not drill the bore, then mill the barrel down to the thickness you need with the centerline of the bore already defined by the bore? Don't get me wrong, it's a good thing that QC and manufacturing processes were so poor in the old Warsaw Pact.

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If you weren't getting any other tubes, cost wasn't an issue, and the bore would meet spec with the thin diameter all the way around, then for sure. Go turn electricity and labor into a pile of metal chips that far outstrips the cost of a new tube.

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If the barrel was forged, wouldn't the internal stresses being relieved asymmetrically induce some uneven strain in the barrel? Seems like you could spend a crap ton of time & money and still have a barrel with garbage accuracy. Trading one manner of suck for another.

I don't have clarity or metrics. It appears the Russians are facing the consequences of attrition of their soldiers. They have used conscripts, recruiting harder, and sending in reservists. This is problematic because of the degradation of the quality of the soldiers although it is my perception the collective quality of the soldiers has sucked at the start of the war.

A 21-year-old Russian Tank Commander would be a driver in my M1 Tank. It is obvious many of the Russian soldiers are not trained properly nor do they have the requisite experience thus they are more effective massing forces because it is easier to command and control soldiers who are in the proximity of each other.

I would like HIMARS to continue to significantly degrade command and control centers, supplies, and ammo depots. I would also be content to see the quality of the Russian soldiers to go down. Kill them and break their morale. Send more long-range precision fires to Ukraine.

One thing I was thinking a couple days ago that is not mentioned is heavy vehicles are prone to breaking down. Where do the broken Russian vehicles go to be repaired? What is their plan? Other than being destroyed, there is probably attrition to the Russian vehicles due to breaking down. My confidence in the capabilities of the Russian Army is very low.

txags92 said:

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Red1 said:

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One thing I was thinking a couple days ago that is not mentioned is heavy vehicles are prone to breaking down. Where do the broken Russian vehicles go to be repaired? What is their plan? Other than being destroyed, there is probably attrition to the Russian vehicles due to breaking down. My confidence in the capabilities of the Russian Army is very low.

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Wherever the Ukrainian driving the tractor decides to take them...

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LOL!!!

ETA: Interesting. at 8:45, he mentions that Zelensky dismissed the commander of the Ukrainian special forces.

At 10:00, he mentions that Kazakhstan is investing more in their own military.

Has anyone posted this yet? It's WILD! This guy is the head of Bellingcat in case you're not aware.

Today FSB announced that they have “foiled a plot by Ukraine’s intelligence services” to lure Russian military pilots to surrender to Ukraine – with their planes – in return for millions of USD in payments (thread).

— Christo Grozev (@christogrozev) July 25, 2022

Today's SITREP.

MIGs????

Waffledynamics said:

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ETA: Interesting. at 8:45, he mentions that Zelensky dismissed the commander of the Ukrainian special forces.

At 10:00, he mentions that Kazakhstan is investing more in their own military.

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And at 11:35, he mentions that the Israeli Special Forces (Mossad) eliminated the Chief of the Iranian drone program.

No way a commercial pilot would know that.

I was ruminating about the war because as a former armor officer I find this war fascinating. I had the epiphany the Russians are finding the war problematic because they are fighting simultaneous a conventional and guerilla type forces. Other than trying to flatten cities, the Russians want a close conventional fight because they are too incompetent to take advantage of maneuver and surprise.

Listed below are Principles of War the US uses to fight wars. This is for the edification of those who are not familiar with it. It can be a good framework for analysis.

The United States Armed Forces use the following nine principles of war:

• Objective Direct every military operation toward a clearly defined, decisive and attainable objective. The ultimate military purpose of war is the destruction of the enemy's ability to fight and will to fight.
• Offensive Seize, retain, and exploit the initiative. Offensive action is the most effective and decisive way to attain a clearly defined common objective. Offensive operations are the means by which a military force seizes and holds the initiative while maintaining freedom of action and achieving decisive results. This is fundamentally true across all levels of war.
• Mass Mass the effects of overwhelming combat power at the decisive place and time. Synchronizing all the elements of combat power where they will have decisive effect on an enemy force in a short period of time is to achieve mass. Massing effects, rather than concentrating forces, can enable numerically inferior forces to achieve decisive results, while limiting exposure to enemy fire.
• Economy of Force Employ all combat power available in the most effective way possible; allocate minimum essential combat power to secondary efforts. Economy of force is the judicious employment and distribution of forces. No part of the force should ever be left without purpose. The allocation of available combat power to such tasks as limited attacks, defense, delays, deception, or even retrograde operations is measured in order to achieve mass elsewhere at the decisive point and time on the battlefield. ...
• Maneuver Place the enemy in a position of disadvantage through the flexible application of combat power. Maneuver is the movement of forces in relation to the enemy to gain positional advantage. Effective maneuver keeps the enemy off balance and protects the force. It is used to exploit successes, to preserve freedom of action, and to reduce vulnerability. It continually poses new problems for the enemy by rendering his actions ineffective, eventually leading to defeat. ...
• Unity of Command For every objective, seek unity of command and unity of effort. At all levels of war, employment of military forces in a manner that masses combat power toward a common objective requires unity of command and unity of effort. Unity of command means that all the forces are under one responsible commander. It requires a single commander with the requisite authority to direct all forces in pursuit of a unified purpose.
• Security Never permit the enemy to acquire unexpected advantage. Security enhances freedom of action by reducing vulnerability to hostile acts, influence, or surprise. Security results from the measures taken by a commander to protect his forces. Knowledge and understanding of enemy strategy, tactics, doctrine, and staff planning improve the detailed planning of adequate security measures.
• Surprise Strike the enemy at a time or place or in a manner for which he is unprepared. Surprise can decisively shift the balance of combat power. By seeking surprise, forces can achieve success well out of proportion to the effort expended. Surprise can be in tempo, size of force, direction or location of main effort, and timing. Deception can aid the probability of achieving surprise.
• Simplicity Prepare clear, uncomplicated plans and concise orders to ensure thorough understanding. Everything in war is very simple, but the simple thing is difficult. To the uninitiated, military operations are not difficult. Simplicity contributes to successful operations. Simple plans and clear, concise orders minimize misunderstanding and confusion. Other factors being equal, parsimony is to be preferred.

They sent this little pill sailing over the front lines yesterday.