If it's done for the course of the war then you gain no appreciable advantage by hitting it again. Russia can't just put it in dry dock and pop it back out in a few weeks.

And based on the actual evidence as opposed to government statements, while she may not be on the bottom of the sea, she's a lot closer to sunk than ship shape. If she was moving under her own power to any appreciable extent she'd be tracking much differently.

People sending me tweets of Kirby's statement.

Please for a minute stop and think.

There "might" be a delegation in Kyiv right now from several NATO countries. They aren't going to come out and tell us all that the MOSKVA has sunk/sinking until they are out and in a safe place https://t.co/zWQiOysbaK

— OSINT-1988 (@OSINT88) April 14, 2022

Wind conditions line up to the positioning of the fleet assisting the "downed" Moskva.

My analysis is that the party at the top right hand of the circle are trying to hold onto the ship and those at the rear are conducting a S&R procedure.

Shipping lane is holding off also... pic.twitter.com/nViN5DUZCD

— OSINT-1988 (@OSINT88) April 14, 2022

GlobalHawk with a front row seat.

Too much of a coincidence ?

I think not...

The west have their eyes on the "MOSKVA".

Apparently she is being towed back to port, this i highly doubt is true. Weather, Sea Conditions, Damage etc are going to make this extremely difficult. pic.twitter.com/IMCMtBcTDW

— OSINT-1988 (@OSINT88) April 14, 2022

Mortar's? From the video, the entire overhead structure looks to be intact. I see bullet holes possibly

Project Gemini said:

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Forgive me if this is a stupid question, I do money not warfare for a living. Its seems the ship is damaged but still floating and they are trying to get it back for repairs. Why wouldn't the Ukranians be sending more ordinance at it to permanently sink it? Is that not cool in legal warfare to hit it? Perhaps they can't because medical / rescue personnel are there? I suppose there are many reasons why not and we probably don't know if they tried again.

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I'm sure someone smarter will provide a better answer.

Reality is it doesn't really matter if its irreparably damaged or sunk at this point.

They literally just lost the flagship of their fleet named after the country capital that was the pride of a joke of a navy (not including subs). It was as much moral crushing to the Russians and extremely difficult to explain to the public and beyond moral boosting to the Uke countryman.

No point in wasting another extremely precious munition.

Rossticus said:

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Looks like she's limping back on a wing and a prayer at best.

This looks extremely unlike she is being towed.

Looks more and more like a S&R Operation to me
or
They trying to keep ahold of her before she goes down... pic.twitter.com/6QnjU4Pw7a

— OSINT-1988 (@OSINT88) April 14, 2022

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In this context, what does "keep ahold of her" actually mean?

Squadron7 said:

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Rossticus said:

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Looks like she's limping back on a wing and a prayer at best.

This looks extremely unlike she is being towed.

Looks more and more like a S&R Operation to me
or
They trying to keep ahold of her before she goes down... pic.twitter.com/6QnjU4Pw7a

— OSINT-1988 (@OSINT88) April 14, 2022

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In this context, what does "keep ahold of her" actually mean?

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I would think fleet tugs. I think I saw where there were a couple of them on there way to the area after she was hit. If she is taking on water faster than they can pump it out then she still may sink.

IMO keep a positional fix on it for S&R/if it does go down. But I'm not Navy so a more knowledgeable opinion would certainly be welcomed.

Spartacus said:

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Mortar's? From the video, the entire overhead structure looks to be intact. I see bullet holes possibly

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They showed the tail vane typical of a mortar shell and a piece of shrapnel, and notice the density of fragments close to the car, and how further away the damage is random holes of much less density.

In regard to the ship, their fleet could be conducting SAR for missing men. If significantly damaged, even if the vessel doesn't sink, it will be out of action several months at minimum.

I seriously doubt it as well.

Quote:

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'[At] 1.14am The cruiser lay on its side and after half an hour all the electricity went out. From 2am, the Turkish ship evacuated 54 sailors from the cruiser, and at about 3am, Turkey and Romania reported that the ship was completely sunk. The related losses of Russian personnel are not yet known, although there were 485 people on board (66 of them officers).'

...
According to Russian media, Putin was informed overnight about the loss of the ship and was erroneously told that the attack was carried out with British weapons.
Putin was 'furious' in a way 'never seen before', the General SVR Telegram channel said.

---

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10719627/Putins-navy-run-Russian-warships-away-Ukrainian-coast.html?ito=native_share_article-masthead

My understanding is that the connections to satellites are easy to disrupt via a DDoS type attack. It's more denying control than taking control.

I thought the Neptunes had a 280km range. Which wouldn't quite reach Sevastopol from Odessa

Great follow-up thread to prior incident. Long.

Full thread:

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1514602438895964163.html

Now, some of you keep asking, what are some of the possibilities. There are some hypotheses floating around. Some are good ones, some are very silly.

— Dan Kaszeta 🇺🇦 (@DanKaszeta) April 14, 2022

Let me catalogue some of the working hypotheses and I will give them my own CBRN professional's take on the individual credibility of these claims with a scale:
(+) = more credible
(-) = less credible.

— Dan Kaszeta 🇺🇦 (@DanKaszeta) April 14, 2022

As soon as radar goes on they can see you. Best to remain opportunistic with usage as their stock is still extremely limited.

Rossticus said:

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As soon as radar goes on they can see you. Best to remain opportunistic with usage as their stock is still extremely limited.

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If the neptune is like the harpoon, they are designed to fly to a location before turning on their radar to look for a target. So the main thing is to be able to obscure the launch from visual observation or detection by nearby radars.

Link

Excuse audio quality, but that's not why you'd watch it anywayhttps://t.co/BHmrfYVsoL

— H I Sutton (@CovertShores) April 14, 2022

Liveuamap just lit up with a lot of aerial threat alerts around the country. While fairly common in this war, I don't think I've seen that in a few days. I wonder if it's retaliatory.

CondensedFoggyAggie said:

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#Ukraine: During clearance operations in #Kyiv Oblast, the National Guard of Ukraine discovered approx. 60 125mm HE-FRAG 3VOF36 rounds (3OF26 projectiles) that had been stored by Russian forces for use by their tanks.

These are in good condition and can be used by the UA side. pic.twitter.com/M2o47JAEmM

— 🇺🇦 Ukraine Weapons Tracker (@UAWeapons) April 13, 2022

Not bad.

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That's enough for a tank and a half fully loaded

What a coincidence that Ukraine suddenly starts shelling random villages in Russia the day after they take down the Moscow and Putin is raging around sacking everyone and giving his defense minister a heart attack.

⚡️Russia has declared a state of emergency in Kilmovsky district of Bryansk Oblast due to the shelling that supposedly came from Ukraine today. -Governors office of Bryansk Oblast.⚡️

— spook (@spook_info) April 14, 2022

Payback is a ***** Russian state hackers

Damn, Germany…

Should be noted that concrete evidence as to perpetration and motive are still outstanding. Appears to be limited to public here say at this point.

In Berlin, unknown people burned cars that participated in a car rally in support of Putin https://t.co/luEvnURin4

— Jack_ryan 🇺🇸🇺🇦 (@terror_studies) April 14, 2022

txags92 said:

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I thought the Neptunes had a 280km range. Which wouldn't quite reach Sevastopol from Odessa

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One of my earlier posts stated our Global Hawk went into the Black sea the day before the ship attack. I suspect the ship was located at this time and the weapon system was moved to within range, likely just NW of Kherson under the cover of darkness. The ISR bird went back over, after this maneuver confirming target location for the actual attack. There is a 50KM reduction in distance to Sevastopol.

If the current position of the rescue by OSint is correct that's a 130 KM drift from the end of the 280KM neptune range from either Odessa or Kherson area. The winds are blowing in a southernly direction so is 130KM of drift in 21 hours realistic?