***Russian - Ukraine War Tactical and Strategic Updates*** [Warning on OP]

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DCPD158
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In reply to RebelE Infantry • 6:00p, 3/8/22
AG

Just send a bunch of freakin Ukrainian farmers with tractors to Poland and have them tow them back to Ukraine. These people are overthinking this.
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Deplorable
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In reply to RebelE Infantry • 6:04p, 3/8/22
Would put US in direct chain of custody for supplying planes used for killing Russians. Not where we want to be.
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torrid
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6:05p, 3/8/22
AG
Just land them on a straight section of highway near the border, and leave the keys in them.
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jabberwalkie09
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In reply to Deplorable • 6:06p, 3/8/22
AG
OG UNF said:
Would put US in direct chain of custody for supplying planes used for killing Russians. Not where we want to be.
So about those javelins the Ukrainians are using….
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wangus12
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In reply to DCPD158 • 6:09p, 3/8/22
AG
DCPD158 said:
RebelE Infantry said:


This is so weird. My best guess is that no one wants to be the last one holding the MiG29 shaped hot potato.
Just send a bunch of freakin Ukrainian farmers with tractors to Poland and have them tow them back to Ukraine. These people are overthinking this.


That's what I'm saying. Ukrainian farmers with a couple flat bed trailers and they'll have those MiGs tomorrow. Their version of Smokey and the Bandit
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fburgtx
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In reply to torrid • 6:09p, 3/8/22
torrid said:
Just land them on a straight section of highway near the border, and leave the keys in them.


Yeah. That's their next brilliant plan.

"Hey! We were just warming them up in the driveway, to take the kids to school. Some Ukrainian delinquents musta stole 'em!!"

Good grief...
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PJYoung
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6:09p, 3/8/22
AG
Yeah it's an odd place to draw the line but I guess they have to draw it somewhere.
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EX TEXASEX
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In reply to Faustus • 6:11p, 3/8/22
Faustus said:
CondensedFoggyAggie said:
12th Man Stan Account said:
Hard to reconcile those comments w/ these latest comments from Zelensky:


Confusing to make both of these statements in the same day, no?
Here's hoping he sticks to his guns.
Zelensky MUST keep up the 'propaganda' campaign of being on the righteous side, even if damn near the entire world understands and is with him.

By signaling he is open for negotiations, even if there is ZERO chance it happens, the world will keep on reporting him as a man who wants peace, but is forced to fight.

I don't know if he's intentionally doing it, but he's smart.
From one of 74OA's prior links and OsintTechnical (siap) :

https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/44636/the-next-few-weeks-of-fighting-in-ukraine-will-be-ugly-cia-director-warns

Quote:
. . . In an interesting development, the Kremlin has now allowed Chinese journalists to embed with its units in Ukraine.

So the "propaganda" campaign is going both ways. We're just exposed to mainly one side of it.
He is reporting how the Ukrainians have violated the Geneva Conventions by bombing and attacking the hospitals in that area. He then asked it has hampered their ability to harvest organs from prisoners or Falun Gong members.
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74OA
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In reply to RebelE Infantry • 6:11p, 3/8/22
AG
RebelE Infantry said:


This is so weird. My best guess is that no one wants to be the last one holding the MiG29 shaped hot potato.
The Pole's announcement was uncoordinated with the US. USAF has a fighter shortfall. It is upgrading its older jets just to tread water numerically, much less let Poland have some of them.
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Ag In Ok
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6:15p, 3/8/22
AG
Looking forward to the next round of updates - hopefully the Ukes have taken back some of the territory lost or if not, are regrouping and attacking the southern prong. And the column approaching from Kiev from the east is being hit.
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txags92
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In reply to RebelE Infantry • 6:15p, 3/8/22
AG
RebelE Infantry said:


This is so weird. My best guess is that no one wants to be the last one holding the MiG29 shaped hot potato.
So why on earth are we having these conversations through twitter and the media? We have a State Department that we spend billions of dollars a year on, and an ambassador to Poland that we pay to live in Poland along with dozens of support staff. Why can't he or she walk down the street and talk to the Polish government and work all of this stuff out? Then come out with a unified public statement about what is or isn't going to happen between two allied members of NATO. This back and forth via twitter and the media suggests that our State Department assets in place are either not doing their jobs or are incompetent at doing their job.
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aggiehawg
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In reply to 74OA • 6:16p, 3/8/22
AG
74OA said:
RebelE Infantry said:


This is so weird. My best guess is that no one wants to be the last one holding the MiG29 shaped hot potato.
The Pole's announcement was uncoordinated with the US. USAF has a fighter shortfall. It is upgrading its older jets just to tread water numerically, much less let Poland have some of them.
And once that is remedied, Poland just went down on the waiting list. Unless Putin somehow succeeds and takes Ukraine.
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RebelE Infantry
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In reply to Deplorable • 6:22p, 3/8/22
AG
OG UNF said:
Would put US in direct chain of custody for supplying planes used for killing Russians. Not where we want to be.


I agree. Seems to me it's quite a qualitative difference between man portable arms and fighter aircraft.
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deddog
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In reply to txags92 • 6:35p, 3/8/22
AG
txags92 said:

So why on earth are we having these conversations through twitter and the media? We have a State Department that we spend billions of dollars a year on, and an ambassador to Poland that we pay to live in Poland along with dozens of support staff. Why can't he or she walk down the street and talk to the Polish government and work all of this stuff out? Then come out with a unified public statement about what is or isn't going to happen between two allied members of NATO. This back and forth via twitter and the media suggests that our State Department assets in place are either not doing their jobs or are incompetent at doing their job.
The Poles tried to go rogue ..I think this is CYA from everybody else
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Yukon Cornelius
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In reply to 12th Man Stan Account • 6:38p, 3/8/22
AG
Sadly we can't believe either on this issue.
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TXAggie2011
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In reply to txags92 • 6:41p, 3/8/22
AG
txags92 said:
RebelE Infantry said:


This is so weird. My best guess is that no one wants to be the last one holding the MiG29 shaped hot potato.
So why on earth are we having these conversations through twitter and the media? We have a State Department that we spend billions of dollars a year on, and an ambassador to Poland that we pay to live in Poland along with dozens of support staff. Why can't he or she walk down the street and talk to the Polish government and work all of this stuff out? Then come out with a unified public statement about what is or isn't going to happen between two allied members of NATO. This back and forth via twitter and the media suggests that our State Department assets in place are either not doing their jobs or are incompetent at doing their job.


We can't control what the Poles say. And given the very public statement they made, we had to make a very public statement
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Teddy Perkins
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6:48p, 3/8/22
AG


Another high level target liquidated.
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mike0305
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In reply to txags92 • 6:48p, 3/8/22
txags92 said:
RebelE Infantry said:


This is so weird. My best guess is that no one wants to be the last one holding the MiG29 shaped hot potato.
So why on earth are we having these conversations through twitter and the media? We have a State Department that we spend billions of dollars a year on, and an ambassador to Poland that we pay to live in Poland along with dozens of support staff. Why can't he or she walk down the street and talk to the Polish government and work all of this stuff out? Then come out with a unified public statement about what is or isn't going to happen between two allied members of NATO. This back and forth via twitter and the media suggests that our State Department assets in place are either not doing their jobs or are incompetent at doing their job.
Agree, it undermines the cohesive front we've tried to project. A whole lot of coordinated sanctions, and the biggest item yet to date and a giant fumble…

I doubt the twitter is uncoordinated though. Maybe walking this plane deal back, a shared way of saying no and broadcasting over twitter so there's an answer to the masses?
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clw04
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In reply to TXAggie2011 • 6:51p, 3/8/22
AG
TXAggie2011 said:
txags92 said:
RebelE Infantry said:


This is so weird. My best guess is that no one wants to be the last one holding the MiG29 shaped hot potato.
So why on earth are we having these conversations through twitter and the media? We have a State Department that we spend billions of dollars a year on, and an ambassador to Poland that we pay to live in Poland along with dozens of support staff. Why can't he or she walk down the street and talk to the Polish government and work all of this stuff out? Then come out with a unified public statement about what is or isn't going to happen between two allied members of NATO. This back and forth via twitter and the media suggests that our State Department assets in place are either not doing their jobs or are incompetent at doing their job.


We can't control what the Poles say. And given the very public statement they made, we had to make a very public statement


Blinken made the very public statement that they were ok with Poland providing the Jets. Made it appear like it was Poland that was holding out on Ukraine. Poland felt they had to show that the US doesn't really support it. Idiotic diplomacy to make it so public and by the US trying to look good by green lighting the transfer.
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amercer
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In reply to clw04 • 6:53p, 3/8/22
AG
Or the Ukrainians are already flying polish jets, while Poland and NATO "argue" over it.
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fullback44
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In reply to amercer • 6:57p, 3/8/22
AG
amercer said:
Or the Ukrainians are already flying polish jets, while Poland and NATO "argue" over it.


Probably so.. optics of war, I wonder if Ukraine has our missile defense system? All incoming Russian cruise missiles were shot down last. Night
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Red Pear Realty
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7:11p, 3/8/22
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AG
Yeah I haven't voiced this but I kind of figured the planes in the Ukraine right now were already replacements and we (US, Poland, Romania, Germany, etc) are all playing a game with the Russians. Without a doubt we've been providing the Ukes intelligence since 2014, and we are currently quarterbacking and equipping the war with Ukrainian boots on the ground.
Sponsor Message: We Split Commissions. Full Service Agents in Austin, Bryan-College Station, Dallas-Fort Worth, Houston and San Antonio. Red Pear Realty
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TheEternalPessimist
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In reply to EX TEXASEX • 7:19p, 3/8/22
EX TEXASEX said:
Faustus said:
CondensedFoggyAggie said:
12th Man Stan Account said:
Hard to reconcile those comments w/ these latest comments from Zelensky:


Confusing to make both of these statements in the same day, no?
Here's hoping he sticks to his guns.
Zelensky MUST keep up the 'propaganda' campaign of being on the righteous side, even if damn near the entire world understands and is with him.

By signaling he is open for negotiations, even if there is ZERO chance it happens, the world will keep on reporting him as a man who wants peace, but is forced to fight.

I don't know if he's intentionally doing it, but he's smart.
From one of 74OA's prior links and OsintTechnical (siap) :

https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/44636/the-next-few-weeks-of-fighting-in-ukraine-will-be-ugly-cia-director-warns

Quote:
. . . In an interesting development, the Kremlin has now allowed Chinese journalists to embed with its units in Ukraine.

So the "propaganda" campaign is going both ways. We're just exposed to mainly one side of it.
He is reporting how the Ukrainians have violated the Geneva Conventions by bombing and attacking the hospitals in that area. He then asked it has hampered their ability to harvest organs from prisoners or Falun Gong members.
Brilliant!
--

"The Kingdom is for HE that can TAKE IT!" - Alexander
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Ag_07
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7:22p, 3/8/22
AG
Tongue in cheek but damn...

At this point just call Putin's bluff and fly our own GD jets with our own fighters into Ukraine and beach slap the Russians.

Putin is a bully and like any bully he's big and tough against little guys. He's talked and talked about retaliation for anyone helping but we haven't seen him take any action while countries everywhere are dumping arms into Ukraine.
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richardag
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In reply to txags92 • 7:29p, 3/8/22
txags92 said:
LMCane said:
FireAg said:
OKC~Ag said:
Poland transfers MiG fighters to the U.S....
and eventually to Ukraine

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/poland-transfers-mig-fighters-to-the-us-as-ukraine-asks-for-help/ar-AAUNgV1?li=BBnb7Kz
Makes me wonder if we are now playing our first real game of chicken...

IF these stories are correct, and the US aides in the delivery of MiGs by way of Ramstein in Germany, then there really isn't much difference between that and the US formally announcing we are getting involved...it's all just semantics at that point...

IF these stories are correct, it would make me wonder if we have reason to believe that Vlad is too weak to really try to take on the West, even with the big firecrackers...

On the other hand, that's still a helluva a gamble...
Again, delivering weapons to an opponent has been done numerous times in the battles between Soviets and Americans- but we have never come face to face and actually fired at each other.

that's a huge difference.
Our pilots were shot down by Russian piloted MIGs over Vietnam.
Russian Aces over Korea

Not sure how anyone missed these facts concerning air combat between Russian and American pilots. In all likelihood the MIG my father shot down in MIG Alley was piloted by a Russian.

edit spelling
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wildmen09
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7:34p, 3/8/22
AG
https://www.politico.com/news/2022/03/08/putin-is-angry-u-s-intel-heads-warn-russia-could-double-down-in-ukraine-00015177

Lots of great quotes in here today from the intel heads. Not earth shattering but definitely a consistent theme between what we are saying and reading on this thread to what our IC thinks.
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JobSecurity
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7:48p, 3/8/22
AG
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Pooh Ah
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7:52p, 3/8/22
AG
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JFABNRGR
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In reply to wildmen09 • 7:59p, 3/8/22
AG
wildmen09 said:
https://www.politico.com/news/2022/03/08/putin-is-angry-u-s-intel-heads-warn-russia-could-double-down-in-ukraine-00015177

Lots of great quotes in here today from the intel heads. Not earth shattering but definitely a consistent theme between what we are saying and reading on this thread to what our IC thinks.


If you have been following the daily maps, they are getting stronger by the day and smarter. The noose is beginning to tighten on UKR and the world is going to let them disappear into the history books and in a fortnight the sanctions will end and we will be buying AG and O&G from newly acquired russian land. A few years will pass and our kids will have to make the decision to let them take Poland or not. Prayers something drastic occurs in favor of UKR and the world.
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Who?mikejones!
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In reply to JFABNRGR • 8:10p, 3/8/22
I disagree with your conclusion. This thing is just getting started and the uke military is well positioned to give Russia more hell.

And the hard part hasn't even begun for Russia.

Further, each day that passes is another day for economic sanctions and voluntary isolation to take hold in Russia. Russia is going to have a home grown crisis to deal with in short order as well.
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rgag12
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In reply to JFABNRGR • 8:23p, 3/8/22
AG
JFABNRGR said:
wildmen09 said:
https://www.politico.com/news/2022/03/08/putin-is-angry-u-s-intel-heads-warn-russia-could-double-down-in-ukraine-00015177

Lots of great quotes in here today from the intel heads. Not earth shattering but definitely a consistent theme between what we are saying and reading on this thread to what our IC thinks.


If you have been following the daily maps, they are getting stronger by the day and smarter. The noose is beginning to tighten on UKR and the world is going to let them disappear into the history books and in a fortnight the sanctions will end and we will be buying AG and O&G from newly acquired russian land. A few years will pass and our kids will have to make the decision to let them take Poland or not. Prayers something drastic occurs in favor of UKR and the world.


Russia is probably going to take Kiev and "win" this war, but the vast majority of Ukraine is still going to be there. Like the article mentions, a pro-Russian government in Ukraine will struggle mightily and eventually be overthrown. When that happens, will Russia really want to go through all this again?

As for Russia invading Poland, that's fantasy. If you knew anything about the Russian army's logistical capabilities you would know that they are severely limited outside the former Soviet republics. Oh, and there's that NATO thing. The Baltic states are much more likely IF Russia wanted to invade, but again NATO.
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Decay
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8:23p, 3/8/22
AG
Those 10,000 antitank weapons won't disappear either.
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BusterAg
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In reply to Charpie • 8:31p, 3/8/22
AG
Charpie said:
Taking Paler off of their servers is literally simple to do.

Removing every site/application in a very large country using their services would literally require alot of work.

Logistically, it isn't that simple.


I could do 90% of it in 10 seconds.

Select * from aws contracts where language = Russian and invoice country = Russia.

Done.
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FireAg
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In reply to JFABNRGR • 8:34p, 3/8/22
AG
JFABNRGR said:
wildmen09 said:
https://www.politico.com/news/2022/03/08/putin-is-angry-u-s-intel-heads-warn-russia-could-double-down-in-ukraine-00015177

Lots of great quotes in here today from the intel heads. Not earth shattering but definitely a consistent theme between what we are saying and reading on this thread to what our IC thinks.


If you have been following the daily maps, they are getting stronger by the day and smarter. The noose is beginning to tighten on UKR and the world is going to let them disappear into the history books and in a fortnight the sanctions will end and we will be buying AG and O&G from newly acquired russian land. A few years will pass and our kids will have to make the decision to let them take Poland or not. Prayers something drastic occurs in favor of UKR and the world.

I think your take is off…

Will the Ukes ultimately capitulate? Absolutely still very much in play….

But the Uke strategy seems to have been to let Russians "take" something, then attack their resupply efforts, and then counter strike against against the occupying force…

Things the Russians seem to have grossly underestimated:

- Ability for the Ukes to remain a viable threat in the sky
- The amount of anti-armor and anti-aircraft munitions that would be successfully shuttled in from the West
- The will of the people to fight to the death

My prediction is that eventually a treaty is reached that preserves Ukrainian sovereignty and their current government, permanently cedes Crimea and the two disputed states in the east to Russia, and pledge by Ukraine to not join NATO, and Ukraines's ability to enter into an EU partnership…

Something along those lines is what I think the final outcome will look like…

I honestly believe that the Ukes can hold out long enough, with firepower support from the West, to let the sanctions really start to cut deep, and Vlad is going to be looking for an out that lets him save some face…

But make no mistake, he has done tremendous damage to the specter of Russia's war-making ability…It will be a long time before Russia scares many of it's neighbors…
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Beat40
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In reply to txags92 • 8:41p, 3/8/22
txags92 said:
RebelE Infantry said:


This is so weird. My best guess is that no one wants to be the last one holding the MiG29 shaped hot potato.
So why on earth are we having these conversations through twitter and the media? We have a State Department that we spend billions of dollars a year on, and an ambassador to Poland that we pay to live in Poland along with dozens of support staff. Why can't he or she walk down the street and talk to the Polish government and work all of this stuff out? Then come out with a unified public statement about what is or isn't going to happen between two allied members of NATO. This back and forth via twitter and the media suggests that our State Department assets in place are either not doing their jobs or are incompetent at doing their job.


Either we're running a political fumblerooski or no one wants to actually be the one to send in the planes but wants to take the political capital for being willing to provide them.
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